Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

This is a very good point. If Musk and Tesla did not put in a supposed herculean effort at the end of Q1, it could have been much, much worse. No doubt that this is bad, but you don't really see the bull investors or analysts abandoning ship, but you would have if deliveries were 30-40k. Tesla may just sneak by here and survive and prosper the rest of the year. Keep perspective folks 63k vs 75k consensus is bad but not a disaster. Even Dan Ives (Wedbush) pointed out that M3 beat the whisper number.

And as I mentioned earlier, this is one of the problems. They have to get away from this end-of-quarter panic and smooth-out distribution to all markets. In the first quarter they do this, there will be a hit, after that it will become more steady-state.

 

[Causalien]

This is a very good point. If Musk and Tesla did not put in a supposed herculean effort at the end of Q1, it could have been much, much worse. No doubt that this is bad, but you don't really see the bull investors or analysts abandoning ship, but you would have if deliveries were 30-40k. Tesla may just sneak by here and survive and prosper the rest of the year. Keep perspective folks 63k vs 75k consensus is bad but not a disaster. Even Dan Ives (Wedbush) pointed out that M3 beat the whisper number.

The eye opening thing this quarter is that analysts seems to have a better grasp of the supply chain now as their numbers arecpretty accurate. Better than the usual estimation models. As tsla matures and start using the traditional delivery routes, they'd get more accurate.

 

[anthonyj]

Need something to stop the downtrend. # of orders for SR and Y would help. Partnership on a van or pickup truck would help.

 

[SPadival]

It's a well-known fact that VW's massive FUD campaign in the 80s and 90s, together with EU-wide help of media – most notably the German car magazine "Auto Bild" and its sister magazines – positioned the formerly well-respected Opel brand in such a way that they became toxic to most. Actually, Opel is still the laughingstock in the German automotive scene. They have yet to recover from this smear campaign.

A completely different era. Almost nobody reads newspapers anymore.. Elon/Tesla are at the top when it comes to social media. FUD is just a drop in the ocean - it is not even noise.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I had a number of people, during the last event, say that Tesla had removed them from their store when they were only relocated to the charging section. That's why the post.

Thank you.

 

[mikevbf]

For those longs on here who do not follow Papafox's Trading Charts thread just below this one, I highly recommend it. A veteran trader with a gift for analysis and communication is invaluable on these days when short sighted investors and shorts tank the stock. The fundamentals are still great and will reward those who have the fortitude to ride out days like today. Below is a link to his thread:
Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

 

[anthonyj]

I think there are tons of stops at $244. Wall Street will want to trigger those stops and margin calls before reversal of trend. Should be easy to do given the sentiment change. Someone here posted before that brokers increased the margin % requirement. Could see a coordinated harvesting of shares

 

[Driver Dave]

Tesla is playing a very very long game.

Amazing how people react to news about a 3 month period.

TSLA long.

Because... It's obvious.

Time to buy more, as usual.

 

[Fact Checking]

The eye opening thing this quarter is that analysts seems to have a better grasp of the supply chain now as their numbers are pretty accurate.

Note that the Alpha Hat numbers have a good track record, they measure U.S. deliveries directly and their methodology is thus independent of VIN registrations. But they are expensive subscriptions for institutional investors.

It's quite possible that many Wall Street analysts had access to the Alpha Hat numbers and knew that U.S. deliveries in February were poor, which is why they could ignore the VINology nonsense (that I was spreading too).

 

[Starno]

TSLA is getting destroyed, imo if you're not leveraged , and invest for the long term, I think it's a good time to load up.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I wouldn't think so. They have a high profit margin, and reducing your customer base is never a good plan.

They probably won't have a higher profit margin for long. Give it another year.

Dan

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Anyone about to walk into the SEC hearing?

 

[anthonyj]

Anyone about to walk into the SEC hearing?

It’s at 2

 

[Webeevdrivers]

It’s at 2

West coast, east coast.??

 

[Tslynk67]

Small anecdote... My last purchase of $TSLA was last week at $258. Last week...

so we've been here before, we'll probably be here again.

Nobody else out there is doing anything remotely close to Tesla.

Wish I had some loose cash to get some more.

 

[Ellec]

I am long with common stock (no leverage), only 2 things will make me sell. Bankrupcy or the year being >= 2032.

 

[uselesslogin]

West coast, east coast.??

2pm NYC

 

[Fact Checking]

Macros indices have been mostly flat today and a bit bumpy, so far.

Brexsh1t is still escalating, with increasing odds for intentional or accidental no-deal hard-BRexit on April 12, which is only in 8 days.

 

[Huskyf]

2pm NYC

18 H GMT

 

[humbaba]

sorry, no way I can keep up with this thread, but with the doom and gloom about the P&D (wasn't <15k S/X expected? That had been my impression anyway) that I've seen in the more recent pages I didn't see any reference to the NoA update[1]. I'm not sure how I feel about it -- seems premature to me as I'd prefer to have a 'beta' that was released widely and worked before allowing users to turn off confirmation, but at the same time I'm anxious to try it out. Here's hoping I get the update before my trip next week, but I'm not counting on it.

1) Introducing a More Seamless Navigate on Autopilot