Agreed.
Sorry, I’m part of the reason for this.
Feel free to DM if anyone wants to continue the discussion.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Sorry, I’m part of the reason for this.
Feel free to DM if anyone wants to continue the discussion.
Well, I think truth is important, as I know @JRP3 does. So I'll add one more fact.
Elon's family finances changed during his youth. His mother left his abusive father, and raised three kids on her own, which meant the kids largely raised each other while she was at work. By the time Elon came from South Africa, there were no private planes or emeralds in his life. He arrived in Canada with $2k, if I recall correctly.
I don't call that "coming from wealth," contrary to the claims of Robert Reich and TSLAQ.
Drat! Missed it! Fortunately, for any of you that missed it like me, they are showing it again at 1 AM Eastern time. Recorder set.
.. but.. but.. but.. he had two square meals a day, when he grew up didn't he? Which many poor kids in SA or other parts of the world could not afford at that time. That should put him to guilt and shame, and it is time for reparations.
Your Mom
Banned
According to Troy, Tesla is facing some demand problems in China. I've been trying to rationalize why Tesla is struggling in China, but I think we may have to come to terms with the possibility that Tesla is hitting the limits of their demand.
I know we all like to think that Tesla will grow 50% YoY, but achieving those growth rates may require dropping prices. This means that margins may be flat or down despite higher delivery numbers.
I know we all like to think that Tesla will grow 50% YoY, but achieving those growth rates may require dropping prices. This means that margins may be flat or down despite higher delivery numbers.
Always listen to your mother.
Your Mom
Banned
Instead of laughing at my post, people should take another look at Tesla's "demand" story. I bought into it but am now reconsidering after Troy's tweet.
I don't think this is a laughing matter, as some of us have quite a lot riding on TSLA. If the demand narrative collapses, the stock price will drop a lot. Tesla's valuation can only be justified through higher volumes combined with expanding margins. It can't be rationalized if Tesla is missing one or the other.
I don't think this is a laughing matter, as some of us have quite a lot riding on TSLA. If the demand narrative collapses, the stock price will drop a lot. Tesla's valuation can only be justified through higher volumes combined with expanding margins. It can't be rationalized if Tesla is missing one or the other.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Seattle-area members, do you want to join @Discoducky and me for an in-person TMC investor meetup?
If so, please DM me.
If so, please DM me.
Your Mom
Banned
My portfolio is 99% TSLA.What happens when cares start to show up around here?
Asking for a friend
How are you not concerned? This isn't some TSLAQ FUD Troll; this is troyteslike, one of the most unbiased armchair analyst on twitter.
There's a difference between Gordon Johnson saying Tesla has a demand problem and Troy saying it.
A lot of this board bought in like 8 zillion dollars ago in share price terms. Scare mongering doesn’t work well here because we’re already way, way up. Stock gets cut into a quadrillionth? Im still way up and so is everyone else here.
Your Mom
Banned
So your rationalization is that troy is scaremongering?
If Tesla is facing demand problems, the stock will drop 90% with a PE ratio of 5-10 like the other automakers. That is a 90+% drop.
Tesla has barely, BARELY pulled any demand levers globally.
Just lmao at comparing tesla to other automaker P/Es. Future cash flows are maybe something you should look at?
Fella, I have had a great and (privileged, I bring this up for no reason at all) life. I’ve also spent years in Camden, Philly, and the military. I know liars.
You are clearly being disingenuous, to put it lightly. And you’re not fooling anyone else here.
Flutter off to twitter and squawk there.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
You’re 99% in on TSLA, but now you’re rethinking your entire investment thesis, making a TMC account to post about it, and you’re legitimately concerned TSLA’s P/E ratio will fall below 10, all because Troy tweeted about slightly lower sales in China in a single week along with a tiny end-of-quarter discount for two weeks, yet you recommend that we do something with your analysis other than laughing at it?
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You linked a 22-year-old article on River Rouge, as well as a socialist web site that informs us that inflation is caused by 'the NATO assault on Russia'?Ford has also been losing money in otherwise profitable markets because of huge pension obligations (they did not declare bankruptcy, remember) low capacity utilization in many factories and less attractive model mix outside of the US, where they exited the car market almost entirely. So...
That follows:
As Ford confirms closure of its Saarlouis plant: Lessons from 50 years of car production
Ford’s decision to halt production at its Saarlouis plant in 2025 is part of the biggest international assault on the social gains and rights of the working class since the 1930s.www.wsws.org
ford-will-close-six-european-plants-as-part-of-global-downsizing
Then consider what they're trying to do with the paint that defined Ford more than a hundred years ago:
Ford to close Brazil manufacturing operations, take $4.1 billion in charges
Ford Motor Co said on Monday it will close its three plants in Brazil this year and take pretax charges of about $4.1 billion as the COVID-19 pandemic amplified the company's under use of its manufacturing capacity.www.reuters.com
fords-rouge-redesign
When contrasting these developments with Tesla there is no vestige of comparison. Probably Ford might survive, but that is not at all assured. As Tesla expands they will continue to play the technological advances they're already done.
Ford really made pneumatic tires (Firestone), car batteries and lights (Edison) auto gasoline stations (Rockefeller) and integrated manufacturing (River Rouge) all work together coupled with close friendships with Firestone and Edison.
Today Tesla is performing the same roles. From charging stations (no modern Rockefeller probably can't exist) to BEV (Edison tried but really could not make enough progress) to manufacturing technology (Tesla is now delivering the 21st century version of S. Colt's interchangeable parts that Ford adapted) Tesla is accelerating progress in part buy ensuring mass adoption of new battery technology by buying from every battery producer that meets their standards.
When we consider those facts it becomes easy to understand why there is so much resistance and envy. It's also evident that Tesla needs many other OEM's success in order to accelerate adoption.
Then add in the storage products that are just beginning to accelerate production, so nobody knows how to value that today. The previous comparison with Ford illustrates that the Giant Issue is refueling. That should show that Tesla, unlike Ford, is about to build on the Supercharger network, Solar (perhaps a bit of wind) and grid services plus Virtual Power Plants. They have quite a few licenses already. This one we're ignoring. What? Why?...
Most of us think of Supercharging as a facilitator to sell cars, which it certainly is. We miss the point.
John D Rockefeller was vastly more successful than Henry Ford. One sold vehicles, the other sold energy.
Now, in 2022 we have one who's selling both. This one knows that:
but also that:
Elon Musk says we must switch to renewables or plunge into "the Dark Ages"
Though Musk was being interviewed about Australia, he emphasized that renewables are essential to all of humanity's future.futurism.com
elon-musk-renews-push-for-fossil-fuels-as-he-claims-civilization-will-crumble-without-oil-and-gas
(sorry for quoting 'The Capitalist Tool" for the old world part)
So, should we not think about how Tesla can attract more customers to their fundamental product rather than thinking about customers only as competitors?
Imagine Tesla as a global provider of EV charging, grid services and Virtual Power Plants, while continuing to innovate in all manner of vehicles, HVAC systems and so on! Add to that improved automation such as FSD, all manner of robotics, and more efficient transit systems (tunnels, etc) plus every kind of freight.
Ships (space and water) probably will be separate companies. Fueling, though, is Tesla, as is mass manufacturing technology.
Am I the only one who sees the future developing this way, if we humans do not destroy ourselves first?
To me, the entire point of TSLA holdings is to do what I can to help the mission. If in the process those holdings increase in value, GREAT! But making money is not my primary motivation.
By the way, I do understand why my view of purpose is not universally held among us.
It is that purpose that makes me hope traditional OEMs can succeed. Frankly, I much prefer the Nokia's and the IBM's to the Renault's and GM's. Better to survive and thrive from time to time than to fail and be bailed out repeatedly by governments.
Of course the Tesla's, Space X's and CATL's are the ones that Really excite me. It is those that help improve the odds of human survival. My investment strategy builds on the premise that survival is vastly preferable to any other option.
If by (tiny) chance that you are being sincere, I really don't think you have the temperament to be invested in TSLA. You would most likely be much happier and less stressed in index funds.
The rest of us here are good; no need to warn us.
To elaborate for moms everywhere...
Troy said "delivery challenges," not "demand problems." The two are not the same, for the following reasons:
1) Tesla has been producing mostly for distant destinations until the end of the quarter, when they switch to closer destinations so the deliveries can be counted in the quarter. Closer destinations require less delivery time, so the wait time shortens, especially when production increases as it just did.
2) Giga Shanghai was shut down due to Covid early in this quarter, so Tesla is working to catch up on deliveries by providing a little incentive to take delivery in this quarter. Again, this is temporary.
3) A typhoon just passed through Shanghai, which possibly slowed things down.
4) Tesla has barely tapped the addressable export markets for Giga Shanghai. If demand in China collapses, which is highly unlikely, then lots of other folks will gladly take the cars.
No, I'm not concerned about demand problems.
Someone on twitter is claiming there is a government incentive starting on 10/1 so people are trying to delay their deliveries, and Tesla is offering incentives to not delay. First I’ve heard of a new China incentive.
I couldn't find anything, but 10-1 is the start of the "Golden Week" in China, which is a national celebration that usually brings discounts. It's like their version of black friday/shopping weekend.
Gee, I’m sooooooo shocked Troy was the one that would bring the fear mongering 
. Guy can’t help himself from ignoring the dynamics around a situation and assuming the worst. No wonder we have a new care bear
. Guy can’t help himself from ignoring the dynamics around a situation and assuming the worst. No wonder we have a new care bear Similar threads
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