Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

According to Troy, Tesla is facing some demand problems in China. I've been trying to rationalize why Tesla is struggling in China, but I think we may have to come to terms with the possibility that Tesla is hitting the limits of their demand.

I know we all like to think that Tesla will grow 50% YoY, but achieving those growth rates may require dropping prices. This means that margins may be flat or down despite higher delivery numbers.

Hi Mum,

Shanghai is an export hub, in addition other solutions, Tesla can export more cars sell fewer in China.

BTW for Xmas 2023 I would like a Cybertruck, don't worry about parking it under the tree.

Your recently adopted son.

 

[Baumisch]

Anyone know what's up with Rob Maurer?
I miss my daily morning dose of Tesla Daily during workout,
his Twitter also seams to be quiet ...

 

[MC3OZ]

Anyone know what's up with Rob Maurer?
I miss my daily morning dose of Tesla Daily during workout,
his Twitter also seams to be quiet ...

Rob is on holiday, first break in a long time, from memory about 10 days.

He will be back better than ever.

 

[insaneoctane]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1572705792729522177

Spray painting the market red is exactly what Powell wanted.

 

[EVMeister]

Just an observation... Some of us may remember a certain person of strength who posted in a similar manner to our mother. They were both from New Jersey. Coincidence? I think not!

Clarification: I'm suggesting they might be the same person, not that people from New Jersey exhibit these traits.

 

[ZsoZso]

Instead of laughing at my post, people should take another look at Tesla's "demand" story. I bought into it but am now reconsidering after Troy's tweet.

I don't think this is a laughing matter, as some of us have quite a lot riding on TSLA. If the demand narrative collapses, the stock price will drop a lot. Tesla's valuation can only be justified through higher volumes combined with expanding margins. It can't be rationalized if Tesla is missing one or the other.

I have rated this above and 3 other of your posts "Helpful", because you are helping @Krugerrand get richer by keep insisting that Tesla has a demand problem.

 

[The Accountant]

TSLAQ has about 20 reasons why Tesla is doomed.
They go down the list and when they get to point #20, they start again at point #1.

This month, they repeat their talking point #16 (just as they did in May 2021)

This month, Tesla will deliver an all time high number of cars in China.

Edit: There are people who still believe that Tesla is only profitable due to Reg Credits.
TSLAQ needs to drop this talking point off their list . . . it's getting embarrassing.

 

[dreeman]

If there are demand problems in China, please send more to Australia - current orders of Model Ys are the middle of next year Needless to say, this is a pain in the neck for a lot of people ...

 

[H Mak]

If Tesla has a demand problem, it's a problem every single automaker in the world would give their granny's hat pin for

 

[Mengy]

So your rationalization is that troy is scaremongering?
If Tesla is facing demand problems, the stock will drop 90% with a PE ratio of 5-10 like the other automakers. That is a 90+% drop.

This talking point again? Is it that time of the year already?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Spray painting the market red is exactly what Powell wanted.

 

[Cobbler]

Let's hope for a software update

 

[Your Mom]

Someone on twitter is claiming there is a government incentive starting on 10/1 so people are trying to delay their deliveries, and Tesla is offering incentives to not delay. First I’ve heard of a new China incentive. View attachment 855505

This is interesting. First I’m hearing about the incentive.
However, how does that explain why BYD’s weekly sales moved up from 31k to 35k? Shouldn’t this also affect other automakers?

Also, I would appreciate it if people dropped the troll and bear FUD accusations. Troy is a well-respected twitter armchair analyst with a proven track record. Any rational observer with a large TSLA position would be concerned and scrutinize what is really going on in China. If I were to guess, I’d say that many of you are blindly investing and sticking your heads in the sand.

 

[Tachyon]

This is interesting. First I’m hearing about the incentive.
However, how does that explain why BYD’s weekly sales moved up from 31k to 35k? Shouldn’t this also affect other automakers?

Also, I would appreciate it if people dropped the troll and bear FUD accusations. Troy is a well-respected twitter armchair analyst with a proven track record. Any rational observer with a large TSLA position would be concerned and scrutinize what is really going on in China. If I were to guess, I’d say that many of you are blindly investing and sticking your heads in the sand.

Glad to be blind since 2016.it’s irreversible I guess and I am OK with it .

 

[2daMoon]

o

This is interesting. First I’m hearing about the incentive.
However, how does that explain why BYD’s weekly sales moved up from 31k to 35k? Shouldn’t this also affect other automakers?

Also, I would appreciate it if people dropped the troll and bear FUD accusations. Troy is a well-respected twitter armchair analyst with a proven track record. Any rational observer with a large TSLA position would be concerned and scrutinize what is really going on in China. If I were to guess, I’d say that many of you are blindly investing and sticking your heads in the sand.

I would suggest that you sit back and read this forum, while restraining yourself from posting until you have found the answers to your questions. Go back six months or a year and read up to the present to get a feel for things.

That, and watch some of the various youtubers like Dave Lee, Solving the Money Problem, Rob Maurer, Tesla Economist, Best in Tesla, and Electrified (among others) to help reach some level of understanding that would quell any doubt you might have.

 

[Max Plaid]

@betstarship Informative article; however, the human race is a long way from having net-zero-emissions, if we can even get there. As discussed above, just tackling emissions from cows is going to be a huge task. I sincerely hope that as climate change becomes more obvious, more countries, companies, and people stop looking strictly at profit and growth as the only measure of success and perhaps discover that finding a way to measure a company's contribution to reducing emissions could be a new way of determining their success.

BTW, Buddy Holly wrote a song about it, "That'll Be the Day."

Sorry for the late response, in catch-up mode... assuming a stable herd size, cow emissions aren't an issue. Seems counter-intuitive, right? Why is this the case, well essentially because the carbon coming from cows is atmospheric carbon. They eat grass, or other plant produce, that's essentially sequestered carbon, which then gets re-released as they fart or get eaten themselves - it's a closed cycle. Even CH4 isn't as big a deal as people make out, although it's more potent than C02 as a greenhouse gas, it's has a relatively short lifespan in the atmosphere and beings to break-down after 10 years. And again, if the herd-size remains stable, the CH4 will remain stable too - we didn't have a global-warming issue when massive herds of bison roamed the Americas, did we? They were all farting too

Obviously there are a lot of nuances too, like how the cow is fed -> ruminants should be pastured, not reared in feed-lots, this even then leads to carbon sequestration, removing it from the atmosphere, such a holistic approach can also be used to de-desertify land, which leads to more sequestrations and less soil erosion

Has been a big effort by the fossils to demonise livestock in an attempt to deflect the blame, but the reality is that it's digging-up carbon sequestered millions of years back and releasing it into our atmosphere that's the real issue

And I don't mean this to be a debate on the morality or health of eating animals versus plant, rather a statement of fact - even Elon talked about this some years back in a presentation he gave - don't fall for the FUD

Frank Mitloehner: Cattle, climate change and the methane myth

Dr. Frank Mitloehner has done the math on the livestock industry’s contribution to climate change. He is a professor in the Department of Animal Science at the University of California, Davis, specializing in measurement and mitigation of airborne pollutants from livestock production, including...

www.alltech.com

 

[Your Mom]

o


I would suggest that you sit back and read this forum, while restraining yourself from posting until you have found the answers to your questions. Go back six months or a year and read up to the present to get a feel for things.

That, and watch some of the various youtubers like Dave Lee, Solving the Money Problem, Rob Maurer, Tesla Economist, Best in Tesla, and Electrified (among others) to help reach some level of understanding that would quell any doubt you might have.

I have looked into all of them, but I don’t like most of them. Solving the money problem seems more like the Gordon Johnson of the TSLA bull camp rather than a legitimate source.
Same goes for Best in Tesla.
Electrified doesn’t really talk about tesla financials.
Tesla Economist and Dave Lee dabble on pure speculation. I don’t believe in FSD and the bot.

Rob Maurer is the best out of these bunch. I feel Rob will post a video about Tesla’s demand problem in China and come to the same conclusion that I did.

 

[replicant]

Troy is a well-respected twitter armchair analyst with a proven track record.

But you aren't Troy, are you?

I just assume you're a random troll misinterpreting Troy's analysis to promote some unfounded FUD. But feel free to clarify how a delivery challenge for a few weeks in one country must turn into a long term global demand problem. I'm all ears – actually not, you certainly don't care about Troy or you would have corrected your insinuations already.

 

[2daMoon]

I have looked into all of them, but I don’t like most of them. Solving the money problem seems more like the Gordon Johnson of the TSLA bull camp rather than a legitimate source.
Same goes for Best in Tesla.
Electrified doesn’t really talk about tesla financials.
Tesla Economist and Dave Lee dabble on pure speculation. I don’t believe in FSD and the bot.

Rob Maurer is the best out of these bunch. I feel Rob will post a video about Tesla’s demand problem in China and come to the same conclusion that I did.

Yep. Care

 

[Your Mom]

But you aren't Troy, are you?

I just assume you're a random troll misinterpreting Troy's analysis to promote some unfounded FUD. But feel free to clarify how a delivery challenge for a few weeks in one country must turn into a long term global demand problem. I'm all ears – actually not, you certainly don't care about Troy or you would have corrected your insinuations already.

So what’s your rationalization? If orders are going down while backlogs have been reduced massively, that should alarm any rational investor. Why do you refuse to consider that this may be caused by demand issues? It’s been a day since Troy posted about demand issues and no one has brought up a reasonable non-demand explanation. If it’s not demand issues, then what is it?