Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tinm]

Elon Musk's Bad Week Gets Worse as SpaceX Lays off 600 People

Ahh c'mon.... wonder if will affect TSLA tomorrow

The story I heard from a reliable source is that they sent everybody home on Friday. Everybody. And then the company called everybody at home. And that is how you found out if you survived the firings or not. 600 people got messages saying sorry, don't come in to work on Monday, you're terminated. The rest of the employees got messages saying it's ok to come into work on Monday, you're still with the company. Somebody I know got the latter message (whew). They were, to put it mildly, quite relieved.

 

[Fact Checking]

I don't think the concept of "base load" was just created for laughs.

"Base load" is a physical property of the cheapest sources of electricity: nuclear and coal.

There's three reasons for base load:

• Coal and nuclear is slow to ramp up and down,
• Temporary overcapacity is expensive to get rid of,
• Permanent overcapacity is wasteful. (Coal and nuclear power generation plants are economical if they run above 90% utilization all the time.)

(But I guess you know all this and more!)

It's true that the grid has a "time-varying load" but this load almost always require some minimum level of energy. If you look at the demand curve throughout the day and over multiple time horizons, it falls within a fairly predictable range. What's not as predictable are short-term demand spikes (typically summer), which is why peakers exist and grid capacity is overbuilt.

It's not even that summer heat waves are unpredictable: 48 hour weather forecasts are rather reliable these days.

The main problem is that these peaks are rare and short - so it's uneconomical to keep extra baseload-style plants around just to serve the peaks, and it's hard to shed the excess capacity when the baseload-type plant is not needed.

Solar, wind, hydro and gas-peaker power generation is much easier to turn on/off.

Fully agreed that many sources of wind are unreliable. Once they get cheap enough, overcapacity will allow shedding more baseload plants - but we are not there yet, with the exception of offshore wind perhaps.

Future trends:

• 24h+ storage capacity for the whole grid would allow solar storage and on-demand peaking.
• 168h+ full grid storage would probably allow all baseload to be replaced, except in very cold places with no hydro.
• Superconducting cables run in cheap tunnels would allow low-loss transmission at large distances - hundreds, thousands of miles.

Which is why I think Tesla Energy and the Boring Company are so strategic.

 

[StealthP3D]

The main problem is that these peaks are rare and short - so it's uneconomical to keep a baseload plants just to serve the peaks, and it's hard to shed the excess capacity when the baseload-type plant is not needed.

In some areas, solar and wind are so cheap and reliable (and getting cheaper) it will make more sense to have over-capacity of the renewables instead of fossil-fired peaker plants.

 

[Fact Checking]

The story I heard from a reliable source is that they sent everybody home on Friday. Everybody. And then the company called everybody at home.

I suspect such precautions are probably justified regarding the security profile of SpaceX - but that must really have sucked for employees.

There's many big companies with a mandatory policy to fire 10% of the workforce every year - but these tend to be more spread out.

OTOH I suspect Elon learned the lesson not to use leveraged loans to run SpaceX and he faced a hard choice.

Plus with Falcon 9 reusability working and the BFR on the way SpaceX doesn't need to build an entirely new rocket for every launch anymore.

Is there any news about which divisions were most affected - or were the layoffs spread out evenly?

 

[StealthP3D]

2025 we are unlikely to pass 25% market share for EVs globally, and, when you back out China, unlikely to pass 15% market share. Outside of China, we'll probably be at 5-10%. Tony's call was 100%.

I was going to post that on Seeking Alpha, it would have been a big hit. But then I saw this in your sig line:

Any content I post on TMC is for the TMC board exclusively and not to be used outside TMC for any purpose without my written consent.

 

[SPadival]

MODERATOR MOANING:

3650 posts in the year's first 13 days. We are well en route to >100,000 posts this year. With # of views at >unfathomable.

Well, at least I collect a 3¢ royalty from each of you for every post.

• Cash,
• C$,
• £,
• €,
• ¥,
• check,
• credit card,
• first-born grandchildren,
• pick of the litter,
• blackmail,

===>this is an equal-opportunity shakedown<===

I think AudubonB is a $TSLA bear - he does not accept payment in $TSLA shares, because he knows it will go to zero any time now.

 

[AZRI11]

Task for you for today:

• Count the number of articles in the Washington Post attacking Bezos and Amazon unfairly: X
• Count the number of articles in the Washington Post attacking Elon, Tesla and SpaceX unfairly: Y

You'll find that X is zero, while Y is rather high.

Do you really think Bezos had to make a single phone call or write a single email telling Washington Post staff to not attack their owner-employer, or to suggest that attacking business rivals is fair and square??

Journalistic self-censorship and preferential treatment of owners, and adversarial treatment of business rivals of owners is a well documented and shall I say "common sense" phenomenon ...

Trump attacked Bezos calling him a bozo last night. Thank God Elon never bought a newspaper.

 

[Fact Checking]

Trump attacked Bezos calling him a bozo last night. Thank God Elon never bought a newspaper.

After decades of well documented shenanigans in the New York real estate business and a bail-out by Russian organized crime after 2008, heir of KKK member Fred Trump, draft dodger, tax evader and six bankruptcies Donald Trump and his crime family went one con job too far and is currently fighting to avoid jail time - all media not supporting Trump is being attacked by them ...

 

[anthonyj]

OT but any car collectors here? Was thinking of buying an older Roadster to park some money. Anyone think it would be a good 10-15 year investment, or more Tesla shares :O

 

[Buckminster]

Volkswagen and Ford set to confirm 'global alliance' | Autocar

This confirmation will once and for all confirm Tesla's lame moat. The moat is so vast it makes the pacific look like a puddle. If VW (2nd to Tesla in serious EV cred?) needs to get together with Ford it suggests a number of things that we have already guessed at:

1. Move to EVs is seen as something that they need to do, and have to save money doing. Not an opportunity to dominate.
2. Move to autonomous is seen as something that they need to do, and have to save money doing. Not an opportunity to dominate.
   
3. They are not confident in their tech or ability on their own
4. They have no chance of catching up - joint ventures compromise everything. Boards and engineers alike will play chicken hoping the other party will solve financial and technical challenges. Dogs dinner will be served.

 

[Buckminster]

OT but any car collectors here? Was thinking of buying an older Roadster to park some money. Anyone think it would be a good 10-15 year investment, or more Tesla shares :O

Tesla shares, Roadster likely to be limited to 10x growth in foreseeable future...

 

[Fact Checking]

Volkswagen and Ford set to confirm 'global alliance' | Autocar

This confirmation will once and for all confirm Tesla's lame moat. The moat is so vast it makes the pacific look like a puddle. If VW (2nd to Tesla in serious EV cred?) needs to get together with Ford it suggests a number of things that we have already guessed at:

1. Move to EVs is seen as something that they need to do, and have to save money doing. Not an opportunity to dominate.
2. Move to autonomous is seen as something that they need to do, and have to save money doing. Not an opportunity to dominate.
   
3. They are not confident in their tech or ability on their own
4. They have no chance of catching up - joint ventures compromise everything. Boards and engineers alike will play chicken hoping the other party will solve financial and technical challenges. Dogs dinner will be served.

Key quotes:

"The plans for a strategic alliance – which will not involve any merger or the two companies taking equity stakes in each other – could save both companies billions in research and development costs and allow for shared platforms and self-driving technology.

In particular, sources told Reuters that the two would pool resources on autonomous technology development, with Ford given use of the VW Group's MEB electric car platform. Volkswagen would gain access to the architecture of the Ford Transit van and Ranger pick-up – and the move could lead to VW cars being built in Ford plants."​

Does VW and Ford have any serious FSD efforts? If not then indeed software market laggards merging projects tends to slow them down.

Regarding EVs, it's pretty vague what it all means in practice and what the timetables are.

 

[RobStark]

Cadillac's Model X fighter arrives in late 2021 as '22 Year Model. Plans to sell around the globe. Cadillac still has dealerships in Europe.

 

[Fact Checking]

Cadillac's Model X fighter arrives in late 2021 as '22 Year Model. Plans to sell around the globe. Cadillac still has dealerships in Europe.

So 3 years for their first generation real EV with a chance to compete with Tesla, assuming no delays? ...

 

[RobStark]

 

[Brando]

...new nuclear power plants is not economical - anywhere.

As for Germany, it is my understanding that Angela Merkel seized the opportunity offered by the Japanese nuclear disaster to get Germany started on its phase-out of nuclear power. From the point of view of minimizing CO2-pollution it was too early, but if she had waited, there would not have been the political will to do so at all. An example of Realpolitik. Another such example is that Germany keeps its DDR-era lignite power production alive, so as to keep the labor in that obsolete and seriously polluting industry employed.

Typical design life of Atomic Reactors ~40 years. Constant protons bombardment deteriorates most everything.
Imagine the cost to rewire a reactor. Pull out the old pull in the new along with disconnect/reconnect every connection - test all and make no mistakes. And then the plumbing the same. You get the idea. So German plan was set up to close down Atomic Reactors at end of design life. The French are closing down some of their Atomic Reactors because of some material failures (cracks) and considering safety decided cheapest to shut down vs repair and move onto wind/solar.

 

[avoigt]

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Its a positive that he does study Tesla obsessively and thats at least honest as I believe many do secretly. Many others do not though and claim since a decade now to disregard Tesla is the right approach and Tesla will disappear but that did not work out. Hopefully the last one got that now.

If we just look at two engineering masterpieces of Tesla which is the heat pump or bottle that Munro showed that no one has or even attempted to build and the centralized computer managing all other parts of the car centrally allowing OTA, I ask myself why no other just copied this approach together with his own battery production and goes for a "me too" approach.

Its very hard to copy but just looking at sales numbers and growth they have to acknowledge now how far ahead Tesla really is and accelerating. How could you possibly leave this critical elements out and try to tackle a new challenge with an old method? Its like to come to a shooting with a knife in your hand.

We are now more than 10 years in the journey of EVs and more and more models from incumbents and new companies hit the road but I cannot find anybody who just copied and paste what Tesla did. It should not be impossible although very hard still it looks like nobody really tried to.

Finally about Cadillac in Europe. That brand is known from old movies but thats about it. I do not even remember to have ever seen a Cadillac here. They are associated with very large cars in formats that do not work well in Europes more narrow streets and high in gas consumption. To switch the market recognition from that into an EV that you can successfully sell in Europe will be a long way to go and a challenge. Still good that they finally start but they are really late to the party.

 

[avoigt]

For everybody who is confused about BMW claiming high EV sales in 2018 and to be a dominant leader in that space.

This are the cars they promote and count as Electric cars.

Jan 12
I had to look up some cars today after going to a car show. $163k, 15 mile range (I’m actually not believing this, it has to be a mistake), 0-60 4.4 @teslaownersSV @gwestr Are they serious?? Bummer too, cause I’ve always liked BMW’s

Chad Mortensen on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

Finally about Cadillac in Europe. That brand is known from old movies but thats about it. I do not even remember to have ever seen a Cadillac here. They are associated with very large cars in formats that do not work well in Europes more narrow streets and high in gas consumption. To switch the market recognition from that into an EV that you can successfully sell in Europe will be a long way to go and a challenge. Still good that they finally start but they are really late to the party.

Cadillac-Händlersuche | Cadillac Deutschland

Cadillac sells between 1k-4k cars per year in Europe.

Many Escalades to American Embassies.

They also sell 3 Series size ATS and were developing a diesel just for Europe but that seems to have been ditched.

3 years from now if you want a 7 passenger crossover Audi Q7 type car but styled like nothing else it might be the choice. There always are some people that want to be unique.

There were people in Silicon Valley buying Cadillac CT6 PHEVs because "EVERYBODY has a Tesla"

 

[Buckminster]

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In all the years that I have followed Tesla, I have dreamed of this moment - indeed I have expected this moment. Now that it is happening, it is hard to believe!
The 5 stages of grief:
denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance
The OEMs seem to have jumped from 1 to 5. Or is it in fact a 6th stage - "complete and utter capitulation"?

In other news, it seems that most of us here have all the credentials required to be Cadillac CEO.. He better be careful though - Tesla obsession is addictive. He had better join Tesla now (chief Giga janitor?) - if he gets caught driving a Tesla too often with a smile on his face, he may get pushed!