Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[tsunamiofhurt]

PS. Feel free to argue against this, I doubt I will be able to write more - instead I am looking forward to the volatility of next week - I secured some funding, so I can sell if TSLA goes very high and also buy if it drops very far down. Let's see.

Amen! On that, we can agree.

BTW, my views may seem "traditionalist" but my overarching point is just that wind and solar are great, but we need to pair them with storage. Also, that nuclear and other "baseload" sources of power are quite valuable to the grid. This is informed by my many years working in energy, both traditional and renewable ... including:

• Valuation of natural gas power plants (building spark spread option pricing models)
• Associated swaps and derivatives hedging. Being long/short anything and everything from power, nat gas, regional and DA-RT spreads, etc.
  
• Bidding of > 500MW plants into the day ahead power markets across the U.S.
• Pricing multi-year wind hedges (no banks will do this w/o heavy discount due to significant *un*predictability of wind generation)
• Project financing of utility-scale wind/solar assets (25+ year valuation models) and working with world-class wind/solar prediction consultants incl. DNV GL and Garrad Hassan

 

[Lessmog]

Kinky!

This goes too far into privacy fo my liking!

Eidt: smiley

 

[Lessmog]

I don't think the concept of "base load" was just created for laughs. It's true that the grid has a "time-varying load" but this load almost always require some minimum level of energy. If you look at the demand curve throughout the day and over multiple time horizons, it falls within a fairly predictable range. What's not as predictable are short-term demand spikes (typically summer), which is why peakers exist and grid capacity is overbuilt.



My main disagreement is that you're giving wind WAY too much credit in terms of predictability. A grid that depends on wind for 10% of generation isn't much of an issue. But 50%+ would be insane without storage.



Modern numerical weather forecasting does not have that covered. In the case of solar, sure. But in the case of wind, most definitely not.



You can't just choose to "dispense w/ baseload power production". Demand is largely inelastic and oblivious to what's happening on the supply side. The baseload demand will largely be what it will be. Wind can replace existing baseload generators only when it's producing, the rest of the time you have to fill it w/ something else dispatchable.



Hydro is great, probably one of the best resources. But it's also seasonal and can be at times limited in output (or forced to produce). So in the end, you still need dispatchable power. Either gas, or preferably storage.

Hydro is indeed great, seasonal and regional. In Scandinavia it has (so far ... ) turned out to be pretty reliable as an on-tap resource. Solar and particularly wind fills out thet gaps nukular leaves. Swedish nukular comprises of a few aging reactor sites subject to sudden rework sometimes, usually at inappropriate times.

 

[mblakele]

Do you really think the editors and journalists at the Economist are being influenced and guided by the Agnelli family?

Yes, I suspect they are. But not in a "print this because we own you" way. I think it's more subtle than that. The Agnelli connection provides easy access to certain experts in automotive areas. When writing about automotive matters, reporters are more likely to call on those experts. If those experts have a bias, it can show up in the final product. No need for a conspiracy, just ordinary human nature at work.

 

[printf42]

Well.....that ~is~ quite a theory....
But lets say I agree with you.... Wouldn't it make sense then......that if someone's multi-trillion dollar industry was in danger of being turned upside down, they'd just say, "Why don't we just BUY Tesla?"....
Spend $20-$30bil to take control, make a few bad decisions, and then just let it fall apart on it's own...
The remaining shareholders will gradually bail, and you just saved your multi-trillion dollar industry..... Two of them, by your account.....
I'd do it....IF I had trillions at risk otherwise....

I know, it sounds crazy.... And it is.... EXCEPT, if what you said is true....

Not that I want to reply to you, but rumor has it that Saudi was trying exactly that, and if there was not the 420 tweets, they might have succeeded(burnt some shorts on their way of cause, so shorts should be thankful for the 420 tweets, you might not be so lucky next time though)

 

[FS_FRA]

Example.
A massive solar plant in Morocco.
Potential to power Europe (!).
Morocco becomes an "energy superpower"?
Add other tropical, subtropical countries.... Disruption.

Theoretically I agree that this would be a (the?) solution, however.....

This was tried (and failed to get even 1 kWh) already: Desertec

The big issue is grid connection or transportation of the generated solar energy from N. Africa to Europe. In the case of Desertec I believe it was also mainly a problem of too many cooks spoiling the broth...

 

[winfield100]

Theoretically I agree that this would be a (the?) solution, however.....

This was tried (and failed to get even 1 kWh) already: Desertec

The big issue is grid connection or transportation of the generated solar energy from N. Africa to Europe. In the case of Desertec I believe it was also mainly a problem of too many cooks spoiling the broth...

“....walks out front, looks at the Solar PV array on house oversized to make 175%, electrons transported maybe 50 ft, good for 30-50+ years...”
50,000,000 solar roofs

 

[printf42]

Note to members who don’t frequent this thread:

We are having a troll attack recently, some member’s remark don’t represent any sentiment change in the community.

Please don’t make any investment move based only on some individual’s viewpoints.

Especially ones from who only show up here when SP is near bottom or just before a big jump.

This is not an advice.

 

[EVNow]

Do you really think the editors and journalists at the Economist are being influenced and guided by the Agnelli family?

Do you think we'll see a lot of anti-Amazon articles in WaPo ? Bezos doesn't need to say a word - people know which side of their bread is buttered and will self-sensor.

 

[SpudLime]

Note to members who don’t frequent this thread:

We are having a troll attack recently, some member’s remark don’t represent any sentiment change in the community.

Please don’t make any investment move based only on some individual’s viewpoints.

Especially ones from who only show up here when SP is near bottom or just before a big jump.

This is not an advice.

Has anyone done an analysis of previous years threads regarding troll activity?

My “I’m a doctor on tv” analysis is that it sure seems like when TSLA is doing well, the trolls start posting in here. Then the stock starts sliding.

Coincidence? It would be cool to see their post activity against stock price surge and decline.

 

[landis]

Once you include the costs of battery storage to power each home at night, and the switching necessary to switch between the panels and battery, the aggregate cost would favor utility scale versus massively distributed.

Not if the distributed cost is less than the transmission cost, which some say is already happening.

Let me give this video another bump, enjoyed it so much I may read his book! Do not pass on this video!

I definitely recommend the book. I read this in ebook form back in February 2016 before I reserved my M3 on March 31. This video from April 2018 is the best update I've seen since watching a 2016 or earlier video at tonyseba.com back then. This may be one reason why I sleep so well even though I am likely over invested in TSLA shares I mostly just hold.

You can't just choose to "dispense w/ baseload power production". Demand is largely inelastic and oblivious to what's happening on the supply side

Don't be too sure. If you haven't already you might want to look up other threads on tmc that elaborate potential for elastic pricing to encourage opportunistic consumption of over provisioned solar/wind by 'industrial processes'. This turns baseload on it head.

Also, that nuclear and other "baseload" sources of power are quite valuable to the grid.

As Tony says, it is the insiders who always miss the disruptions.

edit: missing word/grammar

 

[Thumper]

As for British aphorisms, I will just clarify that in fact, Bob IS my uncle.

 

[FS_FRA]

True.
There's no reason why instead of 10,000 panels in a solar park there couldn't be 1 panel on 10,000 connected homes.

See Sonnen, that’s the general direction they are going.

sonnenCommunity: “As a member you can share your self-produced energy with other members of the sonnenCommunity. Since you are exclusively using energy from the community, there is no need for a conventional energy provider anymore.”

 

[Dan Detweiler]

This goes too far into privacy fo my liking!

Eidt: smiley

There's no such thing. Seen Facebook lately? lol

Dan

 

[Reciprocity]

What's more, the time that energy is needed (during the night) is when the grid load is lowest, so there's no real conflict.

If anything, the smoother the demand curve is, easier it is for providers to manage the supply. And because you can build more base-load generation,. rather than peaker plants, it's often cheaper overall as well.

Of course solar generation being daylight-only means you need another generation technology... wind is a likely candidate....

Duck curve stored in batteries for charging EVs. Or just directly into EVs during the day. Part of a smart grid where people allow their charging to be controlled for cheap rates, day or night.

 

[KarenRei]

Duck curve stored in batteries for charging EVs. Or just directly into EVs during the day. Part of a smart grid where people allow their charging to be controlled for cheap rates, day or night.

Yes, wind is usually strongest at dusk and dawn. Also, long HVDC runs (across time zones) timeshift generation and consumption.

 

[Reciprocity]

LOL, now we are getting into Nate Silver / 538 territory.

Anyway, they can remove the outliers - and then take the median.

But more importantly what we want to see is that the buy/sell recommendation and target SP are consistent with the earnings estimate. That can be tricky with growth stocks. An analyst can honestly think the current Quarter earnings will be good - but future growth prospects aren't great. Not sure how much this applies to TSLA in particular - but definitely can apply to other stocks.

Reality doesn't matter, they will move the goal posts no matter what happens. If Q4 is flat vs Q3, they will stop saying Q3 was a one time event and not repeatable and instead say the growth story is dead. See how that works? Nevermind that Tesla Grows in spurts, like after an S curve ramp of a new project. Gotta wait for the next new product ramp for the revs to double in 2qtrs. But, the underlying profits should get better as Tesla revs improve slightly while it dials in model 3 margins enough to release the SR. Soon after, capex for model 3 in China and model Y will lead shorts to cry cash burn taking us full circle. Or in the case of shorts, full circle jerk. Or full circular firing squad back to the arguments of 2016 Rinse and repeat while smart longs ride out the dumbassary from the shorts and the lazy press and shorts pile up losses while exclaiming fraud and Ponzi scheme day in and day out. It's a viscious cycle all the way up to $2500/share and beyond.

 

[Reciprocity]

Not sure anything official is being done to reverse "pull" juice but there is a lot being done on smart charge/grid control See Electric Nation. (U.K.)

There is v2g, vehicle 2 grid available from some EVs as an option. Leaf has this option. Tesla does not because auto batteries are not made for this and Tesla makes a battery specifically for this. Allow the grid to control when you charge and at what rate is much better for the auto battery and can easily opt in and override if necessary, and the grid can smartly adjust.

 

[Todd Burch]

There’s a good chance that tomorrow will bring an announcement about a new higher capacity pack, sometime after Tesla stops taking orders for the 75s.

Or it may come Tuesday—but I don’t think Tesla will go very long before announcing something new. Will likely affect stock price positively.

(Edit: or it may not come at all. Who do you think I am, Nostradamus?)

 

[dmvevguy]

Reality doesn't matter, they will move the goal posts no matter what happens. If Q4 is flat vs Q3, they will stop saying Q3 was a one time event and not repeatable and instead say the growth story is dead. See how that works? Nevermind that Tesla Grows in spurts, like after an S curve ramp of a new project. Gotta wait for the next new product ramp for the revs to double in 2qtrs. But, the underlying profits should get better as Tesla revs improve slightly while it dials in model 3 margins enough to release the SR. Soon after, capex for model 3 in China and model Y will lead shorts to cry cash burn taking us full circle. Or in the case of shorts, full circle jerk. Or full circular firing squad back to the arguments of 2016 Rinse and repeat while smart longs ride out the dumbassary from the shorts and the lazy press and shorts pile up losses while exclaiming fraud and Ponzi scheme day in and day out. It's a viscious cycle all the way up to $2500/share and beyond.

I hope you're right...I'm awaiting Q12019 as 7500 tax credit limit reached, but still we have the 3750 credit. I think Q22019 will be good with China tent / GF development, but just hoping they can have a solid Q1 numbers like Q4...at a minimum = to Q4. If Q12019 is < Q4, I'm thinking the FUD will attack viciously.

I can't wait to see Tesla semi trucks driving at FSD one day soon...and FSD in general will blow this stock at least 3-5x.