Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SteveG3]

Mr Seba has been on the money (if not slightly pessimistic) since 2010.

I'm sure Seba has a very capable mind, but, the hour I put into watching a presentation he did in March of 2016, revealed that he played fast and loose with grossly misleading interpretations of public information* , resulting in a captivating but enormously off target claim that (word for word),

"by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans will be electric, anything that moves on four wheels will be electric by 2025,... globally."

It was already obvious when I first saw that video (two years ago) that his prediction was actually further off than the most bearish forecasts even theoretically possible for EVs, as we cannot have negative EV market share. 2025 we are unlikely to pass 25% market share for EVs globally, and, when you back out China, unlikely to pass 15% market share. Outside of China, we'll probably be at 5-10%. Tony's call was 100%.

Maybe Tony has decided to go for steak over sizzle in his current round of commentary, I'm sure he's actually capable of serving up steak. That said, after spending an hour listening to the fabricated sizzle the last round in that March 2016 talk, I'm reluctant to invest time in watching more.

Anyone catch what he's walked back that 100% EV by 2025 assertion to? If it's a reasonable estimate, maybe I'll watch this new video.

*one quick example, in relation to global incumbents, he used a quick pace through his slide show to conflate announcements about "electrification" ambitions from the likes of Ford with nonexistent plans to actually produce EVs, to make his case for all EVs by 2025. I find it highly unlikely Seba himself did not know "electrification" is not a plan to make EVs. That is just one example of his playing fast & loose with facts. I think this was all done in favor of producing a catchy narrative, and future forecasting 'guru' aura about himself... the bigger the change forecasted, the bigger the potential 'mystique' fantasy around the would be 'guru').

 

[SebastianR]

So how is tomorrow going to be? I expect the “usual”: opening in the minus, slight MMD and a tiny bit of green at lunch...

That is unless we have an announcement of sorts. I further expect many FUD articles over the coming days - we haven’t heard anything about workplace safety in a long while....

 

[UncaNed]

Actually, according to family members (and Elon as well) he was bullied rather savagely in school:

Elon Musk Was Bullied And Lonely As A Kid — Then He Found Computers And Business​

In 2012, his mother, Maye Musk told Esquire magazine writer Tom Junod that Elon was "the youngest and smallest guy in his school" and that he was picked on all the time.

Musk's brother, Kimbal, says "Kids gave Elon a very hard time."

""It's pretty rough in South Africa," he says. "If you're getting bullied, you still have to go to school. You just have to get up in the morning and go. He hated it so much."

Musk's first wife, Justine, says "I don't think people understand how tough he had it growing up. He was a really lonely kid."​

Even these descriptions from family members are probably whitewashing it very significantly: Elon was likely regularly abused by other kids in school, both physically (beaten) and emotionally (bullied, ridiculed, excluded) - on a daily basis. Parents and even teachers are rarely aware of the precise details of bullying, and Kimbal was a year younger and as the elder brother Elon very likely hid the details from him as well.

Elon went through ~10 years of hell in school and escaped to science and computers - and was still understandably lonely. This marred him for life and explains many of his 'awkward' interactions with others and the insecure body language. He doesn't have the self-confidence of a kid grown up in physical and emotional security.

This experience also made him stronger in many regards - but that's more like an unintentional side effect, an accident of life.

Advice to parents: PLEASE don't rush your kids to primary school, ESPECIALLY if they are talented. Enroll them 1 year later than the other kids - they'll benefit from that ~1 year head-start for a lifetime. That's one of the reasons why Finland has such high education scores in international comparisons: kids start primary school when they are 7 years old. In most other advanced economies it's done at 6 years.

Sending a kid to school when they are a lot younger - if they are always the youngest kid in the class - is parental sabotage.

 

[shrspeedblade]

It'll sell like hotcakes. Harley riders don't have the kidneys to go more than ~100 miles at a stretch.

For sure my 3LR has proven to be more "Long Range" than I am!

 

[shrspeedblade]

Like last week I think we'll see some MMDs followed by a steady climb just into the green. Steady inching up.

I really wonder if $TSLA will be used in 30 years in business schools as an illustration of the effects of stock manipulation.

Macro is a whole different story, if some big China/U.S. trade agreement comes out along with reopening of U.S. Government it might drive speculation anticipating 4Q results up near ATH as Macros go up. It has certainly happened before.

(Was responding to SebatianR but forgot to quote.)

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR MOANING:

3650 posts in the year's first 13 days. We are well en route to >100,000 posts this year. With # of views at >unfathomable.

Well, at least I collect a 3¢ royalty from each of you for every post and reading.

• Cash,
• C$,
• £,
• €,
• ¥,
• check,
• credit card,
• work in kind,
• first-born grandchildren,
• pick of the litter,
• blackmail,
• shares of TSLA

===>this is an equal-opportunity shakedown<===

Note that we do not take cryptocurrency. Shakedowners have standards, too!

 

[shrspeedblade]

MODERATOR MOANING:

3650 posts in the year's first 13 days. We are well en route to >100,000 posts this year. With # of views at >unfathomable.

Well, at least I collect a 3¢ royalty from each of you for every post.

• Cash,
• C$,
• £,
• €,
• ¥,
• check,
• credit card,
• first-born grandchildren,
• pick of the litter,
• blackmail,

===>this is an equal-opportunity shakedown<===

LOL I'd say at least if you ever are around for a shareholder's meeting some of us need to pick up your tab at dinner!

Just no French Laundry in Yountville!

 

[hacer]

...
My main disagreement is that you're giving wind WAY too much credit in terms of predictability. A grid that depends on wind for 10% of generation isn't much of an issue. But 50%+ would be insane without storage.
...

It depends on location. There are places with reliable, predictable winds that almost never stop.
Weather in July 2018 in Dumont d'Urville Station, Antarctica
It doesn't blow that fast in October & November, but still pretty reliable.

 

[Unpilot]

If we ever meet up first one is on me!

 

[SpaceCash]

MODERATOR MOANING:

3650 posts in the year's first 13 days. We are well en route to >100,000 posts this year. With # of views at >unfathomable.

Well, at least I collect a 3¢ royalty from each of you for every post.

• Cash,
• C$,
• £,
• €,
• ¥,
• check,
• credit card,
• first-born grandchildren,
• pick of the litter,
• blackmail,

===>this is an equal-opportunity shakedown<===

Best I can do is about tree fitty

 

[Fact Checking]

So how is tomorrow going to be? I expect the “usual”: opening in the minus, slight MMD and a tiny bit of green at lunch...

NASDAQ futures are down -1% on bad China data.

New evidence in the U.S. was leaked over the weekend, showing numerous, previously unknown clandestine contacts between Trump and Putin, with later acts of careful cover-up, suggesting that Trump was not only illegally coordinating with Russia to win the 2016 presidential election, but that as a candidate Trump might also have been a formal Russian intelligence asset (!).

More craziness from Trump is expected as a result, in an attempt to distract from those relevations.

So all other things equal Monday could be a red macro day, dragging down $TSLA.

 

[Jovian]

MODERATOR MOANING:

3650 posts in the year's first 13 days. We are well en route to >100,000 posts this year. With # of views at >unfathomable.

Well, at least I collect a 3¢ royalty from each of you for every post.

• Cash,
• C$,
• £,
• €,
• ¥,
• check,
• credit card,
• first-born grandchildren,
• pick of the litter,
• blackmail,

===>this is an equal-opportunity shakedown<===

How are you not accepting Ethereum?!
Noted.
Amended.

 

[SteveG3]

Ford's CEO says a 'big surprise' is coming next year with electric vehicles

“We talked about a huge investment in electric vehicles. We have 16 models that are in design and development. We have a pretty big surprise coming next year," Hackett told CNBC's Phil LeBeau on the sidelines of the Detroit Auto Show, which kicks off this week.”


If it’s a coming Lincoln EV for $70K+, with 20K-40K unit production plans, along the lines of Cadillac apparently coming out with such a plan to match the German luxury maker moves, meh.

If it’s a $25K-$35K, 500K unit production plan EV, to match what VW is suggesting they are doing with the ID (Nio), congrats to Elon and the “secret master plan.”

As far as any impact on Tesla’s continuing growth, either scenario is essentially a non-issue given the 90 million unit a year market soon tipping over to a majority of consumers preferring EVs.

 

[kyzhk]

Ford's CEO says a 'big surprise' is coming next year with electric vehicles

“We talked about a huge investment in electric vehicles. We have 16 models that are in design and development. We have a pretty big surprise coming next year," Hackett told CNBC's Phil LeBeau on the sidelines of the Detroit Auto Show, which kicks off this week.”


If it’s a coming Lincoln EV for $70K+, with 20K-40K unit production plans, along the lines of Cadillac apparently coming out with such a plan to match the German luxury maker moves, meh.

If it’s a $25K-$35K, 500K unit production plan EV, to match what VW is suggesting they are doing with the ID (Nio), congrats to Elon and the “secret master plan.”

As far as any impact on Tesla’s continuing growth, either scenario is essentially a non-issue given the 90 million unit a year market soon tipping over to a majority of consumers preferring EVs.

Where do they source their battery? If they don't make their own batteries and packs it would be hard to compete with Tesla on cost and spec. Unlikely that they would have enough production volume...

No impact to $TSLA.

 

[ZachF]

How are you not accepting Ethereum?!

Elon owes me some Ethereum!

 

[ZachF]

Where do they source their battery? If they don't make their own batteries and packs it would be hard to compete with Tesla on cost and spec.

No impact to $TSLA.

For Cadillac, if I had to guess they'll farm out the battery and powertrain to LG like they did with the bolt.

 

[bhtooefr]

4) The 3.0L "Eco Diesels" were designed in Italy for Alfa Romeo.

5) Cazzo, non è americano

Oh, but then there's #6.

6) But they were originally designed as a 2.9 liter engine, still in Italy... for Cadillac. GM's bankruptcy lead to the cancellation of the project, and then the resurrection and enlargement for Alfa Romeo, Ram, and Jeep.

(VM Motori has bounced multiple times between being owned by GM and whoever owns Chrysler for the past 20 years or so.)

What's more, the time that energy is needed (during the night) is when the grid load is lowest, so there's no real conflict.

If anything, the smoother the demand curve is, easier it is for providers to manage the supply. And because you can build more base-load generation,. rather than peaker plants, it's often cheaper overall as well.

Of course solar generation being daylight-only means you need another generation technology... wind is a likely candidate....

As was suggested elsewhere, daytime charging is a solution here. It'd require workplaces to add charging, but I could see utilities paying workplaces to do it, to stabilize the grid in the face of solar mandates.

 

[Fact Checking]

Do you really think the editors and journalists at the Economist are being influenced and guided by the Agnelli family?

Task for you for today:

• Count the number of articles in the Washington Post attacking Bezos and Amazon unfairly: X
• Count the number of articles in the Washington Post attacking Elon, Tesla and SpaceX unfairly: Y

You'll find that X is zero, while Y is rather high.

Do you really think Bezos had to make a single phone call or write a single email telling Washington Post staff to not attack their owner-employer, or to suggest that attacking business rivals is fair and square??

Journalistic self-censorship and preferential treatment of owners, and adversarial treatment of business rivals of owners is a well documented and shall I say "common sense" phenomenon ...

 

[SteveG3]

Where do they source their battery? If they don't make their own batteries and packs it would be hard to compete with Tesla on cost and spec.

No impact to $TSLA.

Agree, and, as I’d already wrote, no impact on Tesla- whether 20K-40K or 500K vehicles per year (though the latter could bring some satisfaction that the mission and the strategy to achieve it are slowly making a bigger dent in the universe).

Good question re batteries. I doubt it’s an accident that his comment was very vague... could be interpreted from anything from “we will begin producing an EV in about a year” to “we will show an EV concept car by the end of 2020.” If it’s the latter, this could be a car to enter production in 2022-2023. In that case, I think they could secure battery supply for ramped up 500K/yr production in 2023-2024. That said, I think they are more likely planning a 20K-40K/yr Lincoln to stay in step with several luxury incumbents than stepping outside of the pack of mass market makers to make a 500K/yr Ford (among the incumbents, only VW has publicly asserted this scale as a goal for a mass market brand).

 

[Fact Checking]

The big issue is grid connection or transportation of the generated solar energy from N. Africa to Europe.

Technologies such as superconducting cables that conduct electricity with much lower transmission losses will eventually solve such problems:

World's first superconducting power line paves the way for billions of dollars in savings, more nuclear power stations - ExtremeTech​

The cables would be laid in very long but cheaply bored tunnels.