Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Creekstalker]

Trying not to bull bubble myself by dismissing skeptical talking points uncritically. What do we make of the lots full of Teslas that this guy has found. This seems tougher to discredit than the Twitter complaints from made-up accounts that have never tweeted.

Obviously this person is a Spiegell disciple, but what is a good explanation for this?

Latrilife on Twitter

 

[Causalien]

That tweet did NOT in fact move the SP 5%. The big SP move that day happened because of the media’s reporting of the Saudi stake.

Even the supposed longs have fallen for FUD now.

Didn't have that tweet in mind, was thinking of a few instances where elon said the stock valuation is worth more than it deserves . Any material tweet that can move 5%.

 

[NicoV]

You should mention that this ranking is for Europe as a whole, not Germany. In Germany, Model 3 got 6.3% of the so called Mittelklasse (middle class ), which itself makes up about 21% of all registrations. Leader in this segment is AUDI A4, S4, RS4 series at 15.7%.
https://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publi..._2019_03_xlsx.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=5

Correct. Another way to view this is that the situation for the German brands is even worse in the rest of Europe (i.e excluding Germany) than the numberd I quoted. And that with 0 Tesla deliveries in Iceland!

 

[EVNow]

Is there actually a different industry for EVs? I thought it was just one big thing called the car industry.

Pretty trollish comment … still I'm assuming good faith and responding.

EV industry has a distinct seasonality - because of tax credits, mainly.

There are a number of things we have talked about extensively in the last 3 months as to why the deliveries/production would be lower this quarter, like,
- Change over to EU/China model for the first time
- Delivering in China/EU for the first time
- Pull in demand into Q4 from Q1 because of tax credit cliff
- etc

Also to note
- There isn't 60k / quarter worth of continuous demand for 50k+ Model 3s in US. Duh.
- Model S&X demand down because of tax credit cliff + availability of Model 3. Duh.

 

[colettimj]

I think demand is definitely not a long term concern, but there’s no question demand in the US for all models fell off a cliff during January and February.

And also Tesla not doing deliveries in a minuscule market is not indicative of demand one way or another. That’s a terrible superbull argument to be making.

You say demand "fell off a cliff" I say that demand got pulled into Q4 2018 by people wanting to get the full $7,500 federal tax credit. Demand was artificially high in Q4 and now we're seeing (in my opinion) the natural boomerang to lower demand on top of softer Q1 demand due to seasonality.

 

[KarenRei]

What kind of reactions are you seeing from them?

"What I can't understand is why this stock is finding support at $270. The Model S and X have no demand left and there is pressure all around..."

"Ok, so the car story is dead. Cash almost gone. What to do...?! Guess we blow new fire in the already dead autonomy story and hope some investors buy it. The stock still trades at 272... I must admit that i am clueless what is going on in this stock right now. This companys market cap is by far the most absurd I have seen on the stock market since I started trading at 2003."

... things like that.

 

[KarenRei]

Trying not to bull bubble myself by dismissing skeptical talking points uncritically. What do we make of the lots full of Teslas that this guy has found. This seems tougher to discredit than the Twitter complaints from made-up accounts that have never tweeted.

Obviously this person is a Spiegell disciple, but what is a good explanation for this?

Latrilife on Twitter

Um, what sort of space, exactly do you expect over 10k in undelivered customer cars, plus company-owned vehicles, to take up?

If you want to talk lots of inventory, walk out to a car dealership, count the number of cars, and then multiply that by the 16,7k new car dealerships in the US.

Tesla does not build to order, and hasn't in a long time. They build to inventory, and deliver from inventory, because it makes far more sense to do so. Almost no bears seem to have grasped this, but it amazes me when I find bulls that still haven't.

 

[KarenRei]

That's not to say that there's no way Tesla couldn't do "build to order" in the future. If Tesla wants customization to be a premium feature on offer, low-labour parts could be installed by delivery centres before delivery, affixed as needed to "nearly-complete" inventory vehicles, to expand the number of possible configs. They could even airmail small 3d printed or custom engraved parts to delivery centres if so desired.

But as for today, it's just build to inventory, deliver from inventory.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Shorts are pretty baffled by this price action

It's clear that this is not the work of retail investors.

I thought the price action today is because the uptick rule is in effect?
Shorts should know better than anyone about the uptick rule since it affects them.

 

[oneday]

Trying not to bull bubble myself by dismissing skeptical talking points uncritically. What do we make of the lots full of Teslas that this guy has found. This seems tougher to discredit than the Twitter complaints from made-up accounts that have never tweeted.

Obviously this person is a Spiegell disciple, but what is a good explanation for this?

Latrilife on Twitter

SpaceX is in Hawthorne. SpaceX employees?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yea, I'm a troll who owns a Tesla, and has been a member of TMC for 5 years. SMH.

Why are some people SO affected by a thought or opinion they they don't necessarily agree with? It's no different than the Fox News type people I come across all the time. Nothing I posted wasn't factual. Now, my thoughts and worry about it might be. But, as many have done, make your case as to why my thoughts are wrong. Trust me - I want very BADLY to feel confident again.

Yeah........no. You're opinion is factually incorrect and quite honestly something a short troll would say. Just started shipping SR in US, only awd and P in euro, only LR in china. More than half of the 400k reservations probably for SR. Do the math

 

[colettimj]

Trying not to bull bubble myself by dismissing skeptical talking points uncritically. What do we make of the lots full of Teslas that this guy has found. This seems tougher to discredit than the Twitter complaints from made-up accounts that have never tweeted.

Obviously this person is a Spiegell disciple, but what is a good explanation for this?

Latrilife on Twitter

Didn't view the tweet, but as a point of reference, my buddy who live in Raleigh, NC saw a bunch of 3s parked in a lot near him around the end of Jan. A few weeks later the lots were empty. My educated guess is Tesla builds a bunch of 3s for US consumption at the end of the quarter (and maybe a bit into the next), parks them on lots that they lease (no space at most service centers), and then switches over to international builds.

It would be interesting to visit those same lots in a month or so.

 

[Tslynk67]

Easy. Politicians do what they are paid by industry--and a few very wealthy individuals--to do with a very few exceptions (who are usually ridiculed in the press). In some cases enough phone calls, emails, and tweets from citizens can make a difference on an individual egregious bill (such as the Tesla no-service allowed bill in Texas), but there will be dozens of other bills that support corporate profits over citizens wellbeing. The political parties generally insure that no one who promotes citizen wellbeing over corporate profits has a chance of getting nominated.

Doesn't make it right...

 

[ZsoZso]

Good points. Thank you.

However, will Tesla ever actually deliver the $35k version? And what will be the GM on it if they do (do we even have a clue yet)?

The answer is an absolute, definite, resounding NO! At least for you...
There are many other people who have a clue, though.

 

[elasalle]

Trying not to bull bubble myself by dismissing skeptical talking points uncritically. What do we make of the lots full of Teslas that this guy has found. This seems tougher to discredit than the Twitter complaints from made-up accounts that have never tweeted.

Obviously this person is a Spiegell disciple, but what is a good explanation for this?

Latrilife on Twitter

last quarter tslaq.org had reported inventory upto 5K.
TSLA said it has 2 weeks of inventory - so lots with a few hundred cars here and there are to be expected ...

 

[Tenable]

OT: If anyone is interested I thought I'd post here because I love my TSLA investor friends. I am about to release a P100D reservation because I found one in a color that my wife prefers. Its a 2018, fully loaded, glass roof, 21 inch rims, EAP, etc. $81,800 including doc and destination fees. Its an inventory car with about 2000 miles (I believe) and is eligible for the tax credit. If you'd like it please PM me today and I"ll put you in touch with my OA.

 

[anthonyj]

Yea, I'm a troll who owns a Tesla, and has been a member of TMC for 5 years. SMH.

Why are some people SO affected by a thought or opinion they they don't necessarily agree with? It's no different than the Fox News type people I come across all the time. Nothing I posted wasn't factual. Now, my thoughts and worry about it might be. But, as many have done, make your case as to why my thoughts are wrong. Trust me - I want very BADLY to feel confident again.

Starfox calls me a troll too. He thinks I photoshop my shares on Robinhood. Someone asked me to post my position because I expressed some doubt in Tesla’s move to close stores >.> this is mostly a superbull echo chamber at this point. Can’t question anything.

 

[MP3Mike]

I thought the price action today is because the uptick rule is in effect?
Shorts should know better than anyone about the uptick rule since it affects them.

In the past even with the uptick rule in place shorts have capped the price so that it doesn't go up much, if any... That isn't happening. (Or if this is the capping, what would happen without it? )

 

[oneday]

Starfox calls me a troll too. He thinks I photoshop my shares on Robinhood. Someone asked me to post my position because I expressed some doubt in Tesla’s move to close stores >.> this is mostly a superbull echo chamber at this point. Can’t question anything.

 

[Creekstalker]

Um, what sort of space, exactly do you expect over 10k in undelivered customer cars, plus company-owned vehicles, to take up?

I thought all the produced-but-not-yet-delivered cars were on their way to customers.

Almost no bears seem to have grasped this, but it amazes me when I find bulls that still haven't.

Sorry, but bears were right and we were wrong about much of Q1. If the bull thesis were unassailable, the stock price would reflect this. I'm paying attention to stuff I used to dismiss out of hand and feel like it would be foolish not to.

I appreciate your response.