Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Where was this evidence listed? Farley, the CEO of Ford has came out and said they are seeing good progress on their own developments so it sounds like they are NOT using anything from Tesla. Not to mention, they don't use the same cameras/vision.

Pretty naïve to think Ford has some secret solution they haven’t unveiled that will suddenly leapfrog FSD. Talk about Kool-Aid.

What was it, less than 2 years ago where BlueCruise couldn’t even hold a curve on an interstate?

 

[mspohr]

Yes, it is the software. Like many, it was a VW roadblock but they may have taken the wrong detour (vs what Ford is likely doing with Tesla).

My assumption is that Ford is planning to license FSD from Tesla (good evidence, I already covered this). If that's the case, they'd be redoing all the electronics and subsystems really - essentially the same as what Rivian did to the secret Audi's project last year that lead to their new partnership with VW.

Even so, it's now on to the "hard parts.". The effort needed to align a final design, plus suppliers, will be another few years at least. It will be too late for VW by then and the wrong platform IMO, again.

Meanwhile FSD is the King Pin that dictates the Hardware 3, 4, 5 series, and is the mothership of the car's software. Subsystems could change, but likely at the cost of energy efficiency. Literally, who could possibly beat the Octovalve heat exchanger design for example? And would their windshield wipers really work when needed?

Consider the fact that Tesla masterfully leveraged their own vehicle hardware (and vision software) for Optimus. Therefore, I would bet hard that Ford is doing the same. IMO, Licensed FSD starts with HW4 and a whole lot of makeover on subsystems. It's looking like a 3-yr conversion for Ford in total.

TFA says that VW shipped several Audis to Rivian in Palo Alto where Rivian software was installed to show that it could work with "German hardware". Apparently this was sufficiently successful and convinced VW to move ahead with the investment.

 

[Mengy]

I've not spent a lot of time reading RT valuations, but can any market be "ridiculously lucrative" as folks claim if there are competitors in the space? Look at NVDA with a monopoly on AI chips, lucrative, 80%+ market share. When Tesla sold $68k MY and had no inventory, with really zero other EV options, lucrative. SpaceX sending rockets with 0 competitors, lucrative. See the pattern?

I don't believe that RT will be as lucrative (don't even need to read reports) as others believe because Waymo is already in existence and there are also known things like Uber/Lyft drivers. Verge is coming from a manufacturer that's not bankrupt, already has contracts with like 14 cities, profits, top tier product (Nevera), completely from the ground up pure taxi platform, Mobileye is out there, Wayve is out there, every other manufacturer has autonomy driving divisions (Ford, GM), etc. Full self / autonomous driving has been a "known" quantity for well over a decade really and discussed/mainstream/in public since as long as I can remember and has been researched for extremely long. This wasn't true for AI (outside of industry workers). It's not like a "new" bet.

I feel there will simply be a race to the bottom IMO unless you truly believe Waymo (funded by trillion valued market cap google) will just concede (as well as every other company going after this space) this whole market to Tesla. Similar to Elon being able to fund X forever, Google can fund Waymo for a long long while.

Like the price war for EVs, companies WILL compete on price making those profits (as we see in EVs) not as high. Uber/Lyft drivers with also poor skills, bad job prospects will also compete on price. Sure, if Optimus comes out very soon and it can replace the adult industry in that segment, it'll be very lucrative, but that's probably so far off.

Things don't develop in a vacuum and this space is I feel, so very crowded already. Like even Tesla bulls, I don't buy people are going to let others use their cars for random strangers who will throw up in it, dirty it, and god knows, do whatever else in their personal cars. If you buy that belief, Tesla better have a good reveal on 8/8 because competitors are already having fully self driving taxis right now.

Another vid from AZ Waymo. It's already here, working in some cities.

Comparing Waymo to Tesla RT is dangerous, its misleading and they will not be comparable in the long run. Think of it like today's EV market and how Tesla makes EV's very profitably while no one else can make any profit at all on EV's (with the possible exception of BYD currently). The Tesla RT fleet will be like this. Waymo might have a technically working RT but its not a viable business, not even close yet, the costs to operate and scale are far too high.

My hunch is within ten years Tesla will have something like 60%-75% of the RT business while others fight for small slices of the remaining pie.

 

[Waiting4M3]

VW has too many brands/JVs, Rivian has a long road ahead if they were supposed to fix all of VW's problems. This new deal with SAIC probably doesn't help.

"The companies expect that a number of jointly developed plug-in hybrid and pure electric models will be launched from 2026, SAIC Volkswagen said in a statement."

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/carmakers-saic-volkswagen-sign-energy-technology-cooperation-agreements-2024-06-27/

 

[CitizenKane]

No, once FSD is solved and RT production is underway with a year or so of ramping in the tank, at that point I think the RT fleet and revenues will start increasing in a very non-linear fashion. And I do think we'll see that inflection point within the next five years, but probably later rather than sooner. Like late 2027 to EoY 2028 timeframe, in my opinion. Since I think that will be the start of the RT S ramp, I don't see how the stock can jump up 13X ($2600) between now and 2029 realistically. Maybe if our PE goes utterly bananas again like it did in 2021, which is a possibility of course. I just don't think its likely for a company of Tesla's size going forward, I think the valuation increase will happen much more gradually. Still happen in a very large way, just over a very long timeframe.

IMHO, I could of course be completely wrong, it is only a prediction.

Valuation increase should happen when the path to future revenues and profits is clear and reasonably predictable, revenues do not have to have materialized. The problem, as I see it, is that the path for most in the market (other than possibly Ark) is unclear, that Musk has a rather low credibility when it comes to statements about timelines, and that even if the steps towards robotaxis revenues were clearer, they would still likely be difficult to predict.

I hope August 8 will make things much clearer, particularly since Musk seems to not care that much about the old business model of selling cars anymore.

 

[SOULPEDL]

TFA says that VW shipped several Audis to Rivian in Palo Alto where Rivian software was installed to show that it could work with "German hardware". Apparently this was sufficiently successful and convinced VW to move ahead with the investment.

Oh, I never said they couldn't do it. But this is not a ground-up approach as they will try to use the existing hardware channels purely as a matter of cost and time. Efficiency matters, weight matters, system level design matters, and cost matters.

VW invested $1B so far, and waiting on that other $4B to be sure it works with all the other key metrics included - somewhere around never is my guess. Too many other things about to happen in parallel.

 

[AndrewZ]

Pretty naïve to think Ford has some secret solution they haven’t unveiled that will suddenly leapfrog FSD. Talk about Kool-Aid.

What was it, less than 2 years ago where BlueCruise couldn’t even hold a curve on an interstate?

Locking things out doesn’t mean they can’t technically handle them in most cases, it’s indicative of work and diligence on their part with a hint of greater risk mitigation.

Autopilot has the same limitation, but you can only find it by looking at the plethora disclaimers in the manual because Tesla doesn’t lock it out and puts the onus on the driver.

The Autopilot section of the manual currently has six separate warnings about not using the various modules in curves. If you’re not supposed to use it in these situations, why is it not locked out?

Tesla takes on a lot more risk than the big OEMs, that’s the distinction. The system Ford uses, which appears to be Mobileye, can most definitely technically steer in curves.

 

[sunwarriors]

Moat would be something to consider in this and assign some value to in terms of how much Tesla could have in the autonomy space. Most would probably say NVIDIA has a lot of moat in the AI space in that it’s difficult for others to catch up and compete on the same level because of the complexity in design and manufacturing of their chips etc etc, but even those people may be wrong. Nothing lasts forever, everything is cyclical.

And most importantly, things that are extremely lucrative will attract competition who want their slice of the action and the profits and that pushes everyone forward — capitalism in a nutshell.

There are a lot of autonomy-related things that haven’t (yet) panned out though, I don’t know why there aren’t robots doing Amazon deliveries already and it seems like that would be quite a bit simpler than full blown robotaxis.

The problem I see is at the end of the day, it's just a car that takes a person from A->B. It's not like this thing will instantly save your life while some other option can't or say, leave one scarred for life to require people to pay up for an exclusive Tesla service.

There is very little pricing power when the "good enough" option does pretty much the main reason of the product itself (brings you from A -> B). Cost savings is probably a Tesla advantage, but like some other's posted, Waymo (Google) can try to look into monetizing stuff while a person is in the car and those backers have very deep pockets. See a Netflix ad, see restaurants where you are, etc, this can be done by Tesla too, but Google already does this with it's existing maps/search/product so all the infra is already built out.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Seems Rivian is just getting started on FSD... with LieDAR of all things!

Rivian R1T Spotted Testing LiDAR

A recent photo of a Rivian R1T equipped with LiDAR equipment has sparked speculation about the company's plans for autonomous driving technology. Rivian vehicles do not include LiDAR, making this sighting particularly significant. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) uses laser light to create...

riviantrackr.com

 

[Snerruc]

When it comes to cars and privacy, its not as clear cut as you think.
Think about numberplates. They serve no purpose but to identify you to the authorities. Its like walking around with a barcode on your face, but its considered absolutely essential for motor vehicles, and virtually nobody objects to them. Its also mandatory to have insurance, and you even need a special license issued by the government to operate one. madness!

Some reporting by bloomberg on Tesla starting to test FSD in shanghai. Could be nothing, could be huge.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

There is no restriction on the govt. requiring communication between vehicles. They already require other forms of communication in cars, and they can make accepting whatever they decide to use one of the requirements of getting a liscense-like insurance is or passing a vision test.

 

[sunwarriors]

Pretty naïve to think Ford has some secret solution they haven’t unveiled that will suddenly leapfrog FSD. Talk about Kool-Aid.

What was it, less than 2 years ago where BlueCruise couldn’t even hold a curve on an interstate?

I didn't say it will leapfrog FSD, the good progress is from Farley himself. I'm just asking where is the proof that Ford is even working with Tesla on FSD or is anywhere near licensing it. I'd be the first to bend the knee admit I am totally off/wrong if Ford or GM actually licenses FSD. That's what I am arguing about.

Ford CEO Promises Eyes-Off Level 3 Autonomous Driving In “A Couple Years”​

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...onomous-driving-in-a-couple-years/ar-BB1oSwGg

"“We’re getting really close,” Farley said in a May 31 interview with Bloomberg TV’s David Westin. “We can do it now pretty regularly with a prototype, but doing it in a cost-effective way is just the progress we’re going to need to make."

This clearly is not Tesla FSD tech so I am asking again, where is it that Ford will license FSD?


On Tesla lidar, this looks like it's from last month:

Tesla bought over $2 million worth of lidar sensors from Luminar this year

Tesla’s purchase was Luminar’s largest of the quarter.

www.theverge.com

"In its quarterly earnings report released today, Orlando-based lidar manufacturer Luminar disclosed that Tesla was its “largest LiDAR customer in Q1,” comprising more than 10 percent of the company’s revenue for the quarter. That translates to around $2.1 million worth of lidar, based on Luminar’s $21 million in revenue for the quarter."

 

[AndrewZ]

Good to see the Rivian surge grinding down to something more reasonable

 

[SO16]

Seems Rivian is just getting started on FSD... with LieDAR of all things!

Rivian R1T Spotted Testing LiDAR

A recent photo of a Rivian R1T equipped with LiDAR equipment has sparked speculation about the company's plans for autonomous driving technology. Rivian vehicles do not include LiDAR, making this sighting particularly significant. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) uses laser light to create...

riviantrackr.com

We see similar stories about Tesla using LiDAR. Turns out they just use it for testing.

Tesla no longer needs LIDAR for ground truth data for FSD training: Musk

Luminar Technologies noted in its letter to shareholders that Tesla was the largest customer of its LIDAR products in Q1 2024.

www.teslarati.com

 

[FreqFlyer]

TFA says that VW shipped several Audis to Rivian in Palo Alto where Rivian software was installed to show that it could work with "German hardware". Apparently this was sufficiently successful and convinced VW to move ahead with the investment.

Cloaked Audis, covert CEO meeting: How VW's $5 billion Rivian bet transpired - Autoblog

A lot of work went into what ultimately became a $5 billion deal between Volkswagen and Rivian.

www.autoblog.com

 

[dhanson865]

Seems Rivian is just getting started on FSD... with LieDAR of all things!

Rivian R1T Spotted Testing LiDAR

A recent photo of a Rivian R1T equipped with LiDAR equipment has sparked speculation about the company's plans for autonomous driving technology. Rivian vehicles do not include LiDAR, making this sighting particularly significant. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) uses laser light to create...

riviantrackr.com

Have you forgotten all the times a Tesla has been spotted with Lidar?

It doesn't mean the company will use lidar on the fleet.

 

[SOULPEDL]

We see similar stories about Tesla using LiDAR. Turns out they just use it for testing.

Tesla no longer needs LIDAR for ground truth data for FSD training: Musk

Luminar Technologies noted in its letter to shareholders that Tesla was the largest customer of its LIDAR products in Q1 2024.

www.teslarati.com

I admit, this crossed my mind, along with a handy thing for off road at night for example.

But then what's their plan if not radar (Edit: Lidar)? The current Rivian system sounds primitive from my quick read - as just an assist. I just don't see a viable path without FSD something, from anywhere. They've been short on cash for a while, so where's the training data coming from and when? How does it learn? Maybe this is a secret, IDK.

 

[unk45]

Not surprising, it why cruise ship companies are introducing it.

They are not using Mini, though. @GearMusk is achieving this with Mini, which seemed quite unlikely not too long ago. I recall active Starlink discussions that there would not be a true practical Starlink receiver for automotive use anytime soon. Here we are with one right now, and in all probability even smaller ones to come. I for one would buy it in a heartbeat were it available simply for traveling in remote areas outside cellular range. . Once the T-Mobile style solution is globally available the world will become rather smaller than it already is.

 

[Knightshade]

Pretty naïve to think Ford has some secret solution they haven’t unveiled

What Ford has said is they have L3 working "pretty regularly" on a prototype vehicle that is too expensive (thusfar) to actually deploy to consumers.

That's not at all hard to believe. Load up with expensive sensors and L3 that usually works is entirely doable without any magic.

Mercedes has a consumer vehicle with L3 for sale today though with a narrow ODD.

Waymo has had an L4 version, too expensive for consumer cars, for years now. As do a number of Chinese RT companies.


I vaguely recall someone even had a comment on the whole "expensive prototype" thing?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655679116761333760

 

[unk45]

... almost entirely eliminating the need for insurance.

Except for this phrase I agree with you. The commercial and technological worlds all buy large insurance policies. Skipping the details, liability for failures in such a world will be exceedingly high. Factually, in actuarial terms, loss frequency will be very low, but loss severity will be very high. The risk will, in this vision, shift mostly to the manufacturer and/or supplier of such systems, rather than the operator.

For context think of commercial airline operation. Accidents are very, very rare, even for Boeing 737 Max. But when one happens!! The world most of us envision will be a bit like airlines, from a risk management perspective.

 

[EQC_]

They are not using Mini, though. @GearMusk is achieving this with Mini, which seemed quite unlikely not too long ago. I recall active Starlink discussions that there would not be a true practical Starlink receiver for automotive use anytime soon. Here we are with one right now, and in all probability even smaller ones to come. I for one would buy it in a heartbeat were it available simply for traveling in remote areas outside cellular range. . Once the T-Mobile style solution is globally available the world will become rather smaller than it already is.

Fully agree. I think it was even Elon himself saying that the Starlink dish needed to be big (I recall him saying pizza-box size long ago), that it would be difficult to package it reasonably in a car. Seems like SpaceX's Starlink engineers have been doing some amazing work if they've gotten better than Elon thought possible a few years ago. This seems like a rare occasion of a Musk company achieving something Elon said probably couldn't be done .