ZachF
Active Member
OT Falcon Heavy just did it's static fire
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You should mention that this ranking is for Europe as a whole, not Germany. In Germany, Model 3 got 6.3% of the so called Mittelklasse (middle class
), which itself makes up about 21% of all registrations. Leader in this segment is AUDI A4, S4, RS4 series at 15.7%.https://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publi..._2019_03_xlsx.xlsx?__blob=publicationFile&v=5
Why do you think there is a lack of demand? Do people not like Teslas? Have they reached market saturation in all markets? (not even in the US) Once they reach market saturation are Tesla owners not going to buy new Teslas to replace the ones that get old, are wrecked etc.?
Demand growth is either going to be linear or exponential. Even if it stayed flat that would still be a business that could pull in nice profits. We are still showing major signs that Tesla is production limited. Heck, they still can't divert resources to building batteries for power walls.
I'm going to the drag strip tonight. I'll give some people a nice view of my taillights and try to convert a few people while I'm there.
Oh yeah, because we'd be in such a great situation today if instead of delivering 63k deliveries and producing 71k, they had instead delivered 63k vehicles but produced 91k, so that they could tack a billion dollars of negative FCF onto the books for Q1. :Þ
It appears to be more difficult to deliver cars at the other end of the world than in the US. That isn't really surprising to me, since the company only manufactures them in the US (for now).
Why would you characterize this as a demand issue?
It is not that Q1 was low, but that Q3 and Q4 were high due the backlog of 3 and the end of the $7,500 level tax credit.
Musk has said the Y will likely outsell the 3,S,and X combined, I don't know where you are getting 1 million 3s a year from (in the near term) production is only planned to hit a 500k/yr rate at the end of this year...
shlokavica22
Member
There is a bigger game at play here.
Some see it, some don't. Model S/X are/were the mean to get to mass-produced FSD capable (hardware wise at first) EV.
The more Model 3's are in the wild- the faster FSD capability will improve (collecting edge cases data).
Consider this- many TSLA investors hold the stock for the FSD potential alone. The rest is bonus.
If you question Model 3 demand, then better reassess completely why you are in TSLA stock in the first place.
I think demand is definitely not a long term concern, but there’s no question demand in the US for all models fell off a cliff during January and February.
And also Tesla not doing deliveries in a minuscule market is not indicative of demand one way or another. That’s a terrible superbull argument to be making.
And also Tesla not doing deliveries in a minuscule market is not indicative of demand one way or another. That’s a terrible superbull argument to be making.
Swampgator
Active Member
I think the only think to be concerned about is that S/X sales are declining YOY in established markets. They need refreshed badly.
OTOH it wouldn't matter if Tesla could ramp Model 3 production to 8k/week. At 10K/week you could almost discontinue S and X without much impact to profits.
The issue is I think battery production keeping them from ramping fully. They do seem to struggle with logistics as well. If they could make 8K model 3s a week, could they deliver them?
Those are real questions of concern. Not weak demand.
OTOH it wouldn't matter if Tesla could ramp Model 3 production to 8k/week. At 10K/week you could almost discontinue S and X without much impact to profits.
The issue is I think battery production keeping them from ramping fully. They do seem to struggle with logistics as well. If they could make 8K model 3s a week, could they deliver them?
Those are real questions of concern. Not weak demand.
Buddyroe either can't understand that 400k reservation was for all model 3 variants and most likely towards the SR one or he's a troll and just trying to stir things up. Either way, from that one comment he's shown he's worthy of the ignore list
So let it be written. So let it be done.
I was looking to buy below 260 today and as usual I missed the boat. Someone is buying boatloads to raise the price. Maybe it's the SEC guys throwing in the towel and getting on the Tesla train.
Firstly, Tesla isn't telling much about this - and they shouldn't, they are the industry leader who has various proprietary secrets to protect.
But I got the impression that they have two main methods of data collection: on Autopilot disengagements, and also they have filter conditions they are sending out to the fleet. So if say Andrej Karpathy is interested in disengagement events about "tunnels", they might have the methods to get only such events from the 100 cars a day that disengage around tunnels, not millions of disengagement events per day.
I believe Tesla's labeled image database must be in the millions - perhaps hundreds of millions of images, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was above a billion images.
They are not doing stereoscopic vision the usual way, instead their networks recognize 3D perspective patterns in 2D frames and to turn them into distance and perhaps object attitude (object movement vector) attributes. So their networks can, in essence, do things like:
Note that these are actually processed 2D images of cars, which the neural network recognized as 3D cars and the output is rotated by the neural network itself. I.e. after training the network you can input "144°" rotation as an input parameter, and you'll get a rotated car generated by the neural network.
So the GIFs above are not real photos of cars, they are the generated output of the trained neural network and a camera/view position parameter.
See this:
This is pretty close to how the visual cortex in the human brain is working I believe. This is how we can see in 3D just fine even with a single eye.
This is incorrect. We know what Tesla is using/doing right down to the very details. They are using modified Inception GoogleNet networks for perception and classical controls for driving policy. They don't use any kind of GAN nor do they have any special proprietary secrets that isn't industry standard because we have a very good view of what they are doing through community hackers.
Lastly the industry standard methods that Tesla uses and others uses does not do the above. Those are GANs (Generative Adversarial Networks) which is quite different from a CNN (Convulutional Neural Network).
shrspeedblade
Rideshare Monkey
A middle course might be better. After reading this forum a lot I'm keeping my core shares in a Roth IRA (where a big climb or the ever-elusive-mythical-short-squeeze will be tax free) and swing trading the rest a bit. Can give you some of the best of both worlds. YMMV
DId you follow the (non fake) news?
- Tesla has still not yet release the Model 3 Standard Range. Many of the reservation holders are waiting for the $35K version. It's been repeated thousands of times in the media and you're still asking the question?
- Tesla does not yet offer Model 3 leasing options. Many are waiting for that too?
- Who said "no one wants one"? Who's this guy? Because the Model 3 is still outselling all other medium-size premium cars, as far as I know.
Hindsight is sooo easy. Ofcouse everyone can say they should have sold at 300+ (or 350 or 370) and gotten back in at 250-260. You would have made a bundle. It’s such an easy thing to say with today’s knowledge. But what if SP had broken out of the trading range and was hovering at 500 now? Would you not call yourself a sucker after having sold at 300+?
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