Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

Working Capital is Self Funding at Tesla
In Q3, Tesla had enough inventory for 52 days of sales (includes healthy safety stock buffer)
. . . . . and had 9 days of sales uncollected; that’s cash tied up for 61 days (52+9)
Still cash flow positive as Tesla pays vendors on average in 72 days (payment terms typical within industry).

With self-funding working capital, Tesla's operations will generate enough cash to cover future capital expenditures and add significant funds to their cash balances each quarter.

 

[larmor]

4680 news is great. Wow stock is getting pummeled though, what a performance!

If the 4680 cell is cheaper to make and/or more efficient in usage, would there be fewer cells needed per car, and hence improve margins per car, esp with regards to SR version of Model Y. This would be important to know, at least if investment is based on projected improving margins and hence revenue.

 

[Kutu]

It looks like the MM's were able to push it into "stop loss" territory!

 

[Curt Renz]

4680 news is great. Wow stock is getting pummeled though, what a performance!

I realize we're not to discuss a certain Elon related but non-Tesla matter in this thread. But as long as it dominates the news cycle, including negative comments from politicians and celebrities, TSLA shareholders may be selling, and other investors may have become reluctant to buy. This should pass; some of the noise may quiet after the election.

 

[elasalle]

4680 news is great. Wow stock is getting pummeled though, what a performance!

What news?

 

[Drax7]

Run rate is a BS number. It has zero impact on sales or profits, it is only capability. TSLA or TMC bragging on run rate is no better than Biden or Mary or Toyoda making claims about EVs in 3035.

If you value the stock on forward earnings, a 2 million sales number for 2023 would
seem likely given tesla is aiming at 40,000 cars produced per week. Berlin and Austin
are scheduled to reach 5000 cars per week within the end of this year. Even if
a few months late, the same reasoning still applies.

The rest follows.

 

[Big Time]

What news?

Tesla prepares to offer new Model Y trim with 4680 cell for 2023

Tesla is launching a Standard Range All-Wheel-Drive Model Y with 4680 cells for 2023. It is the third Model Y trim level that Tesla will offer.

www.teslarati.com

 

[MP3Mike]

There was question when the legislation was passed as to if Tesla's would qualify due to the battery mineral sourcing stipulations, and the general consensus here was that at some point the relevant agencies would provide clarification/guidelines.

Have we seen that or know for a fact Tesla's qualify at this point?

Nope. Comments were due last Friday, 11/4, so now that comments are in the IRS/Treasury has to review them all and come up with the guidance.

 

[The Accountant]

Run rate is a BS number. It has zero impact on sales or profits, it is only capability. TSLA or TMC bragging on run rate is no better than Biden or Mary or Toyoda making claims about EVs in 3035.

Run rate is Proven Capability and likely to increase. It's not theoretical capacity.
If a growing company that is ramping hits a production number in a current weak you can count that this number is going higher.

 

[gtrplyr1]

There is just too much noise and uncertainty out there for TSLA right now.

4680 is amazing news for long term investors ... the short term gamblers at the table right now could care less about what happens in 6 months.

Being a TSLA long has been a tough road in '22 .....

Cheers to the longs ... better days are ahead.

 

[Stretch2727]

That is nothing new, that is just the new model year for the Model Y AWD that Tesla has already sold. It seems that the article is full of a lot of misinformation. (Like that the Model Y AWD was only available to employees.)

Agreed, but they still do not officially offer this car on the website for order. They sold to employees and converted a few customer LR orders and then it seem to stop. I looked in the Model Y order tracker and I see a few recent cars listed under short range, not sure if they are 4680 cars or it is a data error.

I am just surprised by now that this has not become a regular offering. It's almost like they switched to 2170 in Texas after a short run of 4680 and stopped.

Anyone have evidence they are still selling the 4680 cars from Texas?

 

[insaneoctane]

This SP action sure has been a test for HODLers lately. I'm still spending an irresponsible amount of FCF/savings on these "buying opportunities". I'd really like it if the SP would go up enough to make me pause and actually rebuild a little of the responsible rainy day fund that I've depleted. I don't remember a bigger disconnect between Tesla's performance and TSLA.

EDIT : TTM P/E 63.9 and forward P/E 37.0. Quite astonishing.

 

[Curt Renz]

... the short term gamblers at the table right now could care less about what happens in 6 months...

 

[elasalle]

Tesla prepares to offer new Model Y trim with 4680 cell for 2023

Tesla is launching a Standard Range All-Wheel-Drive Model Y with 4680 cells for 2023. It is the third Model Y trim level that Tesla will offer.

www.teslarati.com

this tells us that a new MY is going to be introduced, but doesn't tell us much in any changes in 4680 improvements/rates etc does it?

 

[MP3Mike]

Agreed, but they still do not officially offer this car on the website for order. They sold to employees and converted a few customer LR cars and then it seem to stop. I looked in the Model Y order tracker and I see a few recent cars listed under short range, not sure if they are 4680 cars or it is a data error.

They have offered it for sale on the website recently, they just listed them in the inventory section, even though they weren't built yet. (And then contacted people that ordered them and let them know that production plans were delayed.)

I am just surprised by now that this has not become a regular offering. It's almost like they switched to 2170 in Texas after a short run of 4680 and stopped.

Anyone have evidence they are still selling the 4680 cars from Texas?

I think that is pretty much what happened. They even sort of mentioned that on the Q3 call, that they were producing enough to get them in circulation so that they could collect data on them, but they aren't switching between 2170 and 4680 frequently because that reduces production efficiency.

 

[Unpilot]

Margin calls.... Margin calls.... It's raining Margin calls.

 

[elasalle]

+ the smart ones, the ones who are playing the long term game, the ones who understand the impact of GF Austin/Berlin, the ones who understand the impact of 4680, the ones who understand how IRA will help TSLA are all buying .....

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Tesla prepares to offer new Model Y trim with 4680 cell for 2023

Tesla is launching a Standard Range All-Wheel-Drive Model Y with 4680 cells for 2023. It is the third Model Y trim level that Tesla will offer.

www.teslarati.com

Can’t seem to find it. But what is the range on a standard range AWD model Y?

 

[verystandard]

Today it is such an honour for Tesla to go south alongside with highly investment grade stock such as Palantir, Jumia, and bunch of other money losing EV stocks...

 

[wipster]

Run rate is a BS number. It has zero impact on sales or profits, it is only capability. TSLA or TMC bragging on run rate is no better than Biden or Mary or Toyoda making claims about EVs in 3035.

You can't sell what you don't make, so run rate is very much not a BS number. It dictates just how many vehicles Tesla will have to sell in Europe or ship to Taiwan and potentially other places and probable reduced wait times when ordering a car.

No BS!!!