Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

Don't want to jump to any conclusions, but the below link seems to suggest that this contract is just for 2019, and so that the hundreds of millions is per (this) year. That would be excellent if true (and the stock will very likely spike on Monday), but I'm going to be cautious for now. Also seems to suggest contracts are set up on a yearly basis or maybe longer if the parties agree??

Patrick McGee on Twitter

Does that mean, that only two such pools exist - as of the date that document was written?

 

[pnungesser]

This gets to my wonderings. Is there a way to amplify the FCA dollars into more deliveries.

Rather than just recognize the revenue, use it to create an incentive to move more product/vehicles thereby building an increasing longer term revenue stream that exceeds the simple "recognize the revenue". If done well, the SP "might" offer a reward.

I don't know how the EU pool works, but I would guess that the "pool" of Tesla and FCAwould have to meet the EU limits. To understand the fines we would need to know the mix of FCA vehicles, their sale numbers and emission levels. We could then try to calculate how many Tesla would need to be delivered to the EU to offset the fines. What I'm hoping someone with more data and time would do is calculate how many Teslas would need to be delivered in order to maximize the lowering of the FCA fines. I have no idea whether the current EU delivery rate is more or less than needed.

 

[Tslynk67]

Musk isn’t doing himself any favors by shooting himself/Tesla/shareholders in the foot. I prefer for him to shut up and let the cars do the talking. His demeanor/actions early on in 2012 was heroic, but he’s making himself look like a donkeys behind lately. I don’t blame people for hating him in such way, it’s up to him to win back his credibility. With that being said he’s done a great deal of good for humanity, which also invites a lot of hatred from a position of jealousy and envy. Elon really needs to have a spin/damage control team working for him. But if he doesn’t listen to them, then it’ll do no good. I guess this is the Musk tax we have to deal with. It’s ashame bc he could have sold a lot more cars if he was likable like in 2012.

Personally I’ve met doctors/physicians who love Musk, and physicians who also don’t trust him. These are smart people and so is Elon, he can win them over if he behaves; otherwise he’ll turn a lot of potential buyers off with his incessant gaffes.

Musk has guided Tesla to where we are today and the bundle can't be split up.

 

[Tslynk67]

So this FCA deal - does this mean Teslas now gain emissions (on paper)?

 

[Navin]

Re: fiat/Chrysler 100% cash that is 100% margin - - I’m down with OPP. Yeah, you know me. Whose down with OPP? This gets us closer to S&P.

Love it. Unexpected turn of the tables. Monday should be interesting.

 

[Beltsbear]

Tesla solar is probably going to start ramping soon. Jusy heard from an installer that installer classes start in May. They are going to be having lots of classes in multiple locations.

 

[EVNow]

Maybe he's just tight?

But he paid $2B for the LA team ?

BTW, Balmer's father used to work in Ford. So, Balmer even used to drive cheap Ford cars. Microsoft fleet was mostly Ford hybrids. He did buy a Leaf when it came out, though.

 

[lklundin]

Exposed site? I don't generally associate California with thunderstorms; I lived in Texas back when I had to care about lightning. In Iceland, lightning it's so rare that it often makes the news It's one of the few natural disasters that's not on our problem-list (blizzards, avalanches, hail, earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, landslides, rogue waves, floods (including glacial outburst superfloods), toxic gas clouds... heck, we even get the extratropical remnants of Atlantic hurricanes, and even the normal extratropical cyclones can reach "major hurricane"-strength winds - had 70+m/s gusts clocked just across the fjörd from my land :Þ)

I think in order to appreciate that one has to experience it personally, trying to navigate in mid summer in a mix of fog, sulfuric gases and snow flakes and then have a gust of wind literally lift you up and throw you a couple meters - in spite of carrying a backpack heavy with two weeks of supplies. Surreal...

 

[AndyH]

Nice week despite the lower deliveries of...what was it again? Hm... Waffles? Solar roofed lawn chairs? I can't remember. Never mind, on to the good stuff.

Some day soon deals like this one with FCA will lead to bigger deals, like buying into supercharging network or cooperation on shared models. The auto industry is otherwise littered with unholy alliances. BMW and Toyota just developed a sports car together, Mercedes are using Renault engines etc. Tesla's competence has been undervalued and ignored for way too long now.

The update of navigate on autopilot looks really promising and the first iterations of traffic lights recognition and navigating a parking lot is also available. Stop lines are coming soon. It puts Elon saying that the autopilot will be feature complete by the end of this year in a different light. The competition doesn't have anything close to this and doing a FSD presentation now is perfect PR.

Ps. Maybe in the distant future we Europeans could get to experience these new autopilot features too? It's starting to feel like dark ages all over again here...

 

[KarenRei]

Re: fiat/Chrysler 100% cash that is 100% margin - - I’m down with OPP. Yeah, you know me. Whose down with OPP? This gets us closer to S&P.

Love it. Unexpected turn of the tables. Monday should be interesting.

Hopefully not too interesting, too fast! Need a little time in the morning to reposition!

 

[Beltsbear]

So this FCA deal - does this mean Teslas now gain emissions (on paper)?

No. But the shared fleet between FCA and Tesla has lower emissions then an FCA alone fleet.

 

[ZachF]

Ummm... wow? I can't decide whether I like this or not.

It will allow Tesla to milk the dying corpse that is FCA

 

[KarenRei]

I think in order to appreciate that one has to experience it personally, trying to navigate in mid summer in a mix of fog, sulfuric gases and snow flakes and then have a gust of wind literally lift you up and throw you a couple meters - in spite of carrying a backpack heavy with two weeks of supplies. Surreal...

Or to put it another way: this map isn't joking

One of the windiest countries on Earth. I literally had a steel shipping crate full of tonnes (literal) of steel, wood and glass tossed around like a child's toy. This despite the windbreak I built... or more to the point, before the same storm sheared every single post of the windbreak at the ground. Had to anchor the crate down afterwards with piles of boulders.

Want a diverse array of possible natural disasters? Political and economic disasters too? Visit Iceland! Come to see Mother Nature try to kill you, stay because your airline went bankrupt!

 

[EVNow]

Did Tesla not want to have anything to do with the emissions cheating Germans? - I mean Tesla taking their money would be kind of ironic.

Also, I would like to hear the reactions within FCA when people hear that significant amounts of money is been paid to Tesla.

Not very different from Tesla selling ZEV credits.

 

[ZachF]

@Antares Nebula
teensy tiny factoid = competition a bit behind
View attachment 394611

...Would also be interesting to put that graph up against estimated battery cell cost.

 

[T@oo]

Another point about the FCA deal. I’m pretty sure before closing this deal FCA made sure that Tesla is not going bankwupt anytime now ... I mean this should be standard when making a multi million dollar deal with an other company. No? So the shorts should have it on good authority now.

And for FCA buying Tesla shares, wouldn’t it be a good ‘hedge against the fine’ it has to pay to Tesla?

And one more thing. If FCA is late to the BEV game, wouldn’t a Model 3 SR skateboard (battery, controller, motor) make a nice base for a future FCA vehicle? I mean, with ICE they do it all the time.

Mind farts.

 

[mblakele]

Does that mean, that only two such pools exist - as of the date that document was written?

No, there's a third with PSA. EU documents aren't as easy to find as they might be, are they?

Here's the pdf: https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/c37a5306-28b9-4753-88aa-b7f3f42c1878/M1 declarations of intent to form open pools (25.02.2019).pdf

EDIT: The link above is for open pools. Here's a full list of open and closed pools: https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/c616f73f-9c3f-49ee-8f27-8b081d3212b7/M1 pooling list 25.01.2019.pdf

Note that the "duration" column for FCA-Tesla shows "2019" only. Other pools show ranges, such as "2019-2024". I don't know how significant that is.

 

[lklundin]

New batch of 4370 Model 3 VINs
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
- Notably, 36% is international - could it be a sign that Tesla is no longer producing for only one market at a time?

Also, only 18% is dual motor, so some RWD orders are going to be filled - I wonder how the SR/SR+/LR RWD split is going to be.

 

[ZachF]

OT:

In case you're wondering what 45 million horsepower looks like:

 

[AlMc]

Although Elon's tweet is what's getting the most attention, I thought that the story had already broken before Elon tweeted, in which case Elon's tweet was not material because it was already public knowledge.

This was the instance that the SEC filed their contempt charge about.

During the hearing EM (via body language) seemed pretty controlled/passive. The only time I saw him a little 'animated' is when his attorney was obviously finishing up his presentation. At that point EM had an obvious conversation with the 'second chair' attorney. That attorney then passed one of several 'post it notes' to the lead attorney who promptly indicated that the tweet was not material as there was no evidence of an SP move or volume change over what was normal with the tweet/the subsequent 'correction' tweet AH or any mention by the media the following day. EM obviously wanted that point made IMO.

No one seemed to care except the SEC.