Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

Gloating by shorts came to an abrupt end. Now the real value of Tesla will shine through and our shares will become stars and beacons for the future.

I've heard that more times than I can count the past 2 years. At best this is a swing trading opportunity developing. Time to test my new strategy.

 

[mongo]

It's nice that the fuses in the Model 3 are almost all solid-state. Virtually instant response to surges, and reset without requiring service. AFAIK, the only ones that aren't are the pack's pyro fuse, and the wire bonds that connect the individual cells to the controller.

Other than those solid state parts are more density to ESD/EMI/EMP than an old fashion fuse. (Smart FETs can fail in worse ways that a fuse)

What I take away from this is:
1) Pools can be multi-year, but not to exceed 5 years
2) Emission pooling for FCA/Alfa/Tesla can begin this year

Regarding 1: each agreement can only be 5 years max, but they can have multiple consecutive agreements.

If I'm reading that EU/EC regulation 443/2009 correctly...

• Any "excess emissions premium" will be paid by the pool manager, which is FCA. Things might get sticky if FCA were to become insolvent.
• Subject to the regs, it looks like each pool can set its own terms privately. I doubt we'll see full transparency there. We'll have to infer what we can from public statements.

The pooling agreement itself might protect Tesla. Further, I don't see Tesla being on the hook since they are not the ones with the emissions (agreement calls out action if pool manager can't meet requirements in sub part 3, and allows dissolution of pool in sub part 4)

 

[RobStark]

Regarding climate change, I have little doubt about who is more efficient. But 2B are a lot of money, so I think that a crucial factor is the amount of the Tesla fee. If FCA got a 10x discount that's too much.

I also wonder if VW and Peugeot are gonna pay the fine, that would be awesome.

For CARB ZEV credits the market is a 50% discount on the face value.

If you end up short a ZEV credit the CARB fine is $5k. Private sale ZEV credits are sold for $2.5k.

I would imagine that sets price expectations in the EU.

 

[lklundin]

I've heard that more times than I can count the past 2 years. At best this is a swing trading opportunity developing. Time to test my new strategy.

With no warning or expectation of news that Tesla can book a 100% profit of hundreds of million of Euros (on an unknown time scale), I just concluded that swing trading is not for me...

 

[nursebee]

Hey Elon (and Spacex),

Let's get yer act together a little faster and win first mover...

Here's why Amazon is trying to reach every inch of the world with satellites providing internet

 

[Buckminster]

Re: CO2 reduction in the EU and fines
View attachment 394663
This is from :
https://www.vcd.org/fileadmin/user_...CO2_emissions_cars_The_facts_report_final.pdf

Lots of useful information for those interested.

I would assume the cash will roll in only in later years (2021 ff)

Can someone clever humour a superbull - what is the max potential here for Tesla to bill this lot? Is there any way multiple deals could break $1Bn/annum?

 

[RobStark]

I doubt that will work since Fiat sells 5 times more cars in Europe than Chrysler in the USA.
And it was Fiat that bought Chrysler to save it from bancrupty, so I wouldn’t expect much profits from the USA operations.

But Fiat turned Ram and Jeep around, particularly with much better interiors.

FCA killed Dodge/Chrysler unprofitable small and midsize cars.

Ram and Jeep account for over 70% of FCA profits.

Ram pickups have outsold Chevy Silverado in 2019.

In Europe's hypercompetive small car market Fiat sells cars for almost zero profit.

Unlike VW with Audi and Porsche, FCA doesn't sell many Alfa Romeos or Maseratis. It spun off Ferrari.

FCA's golden geese are Jeep and Ram.

 

[EVNow]

Maybe I am not up to date but the short’s bankruptcy argument died once Tesla paid their debt in cash.

Their main argument now is
- No demand
- Cooked books

 

[mongo]

Hey Elon (and Spacex),

Let's get yer act together a little faster and win first mover...

Here's why Amazon is trying to reach every inch of the world with satellites providing internet

Huh?
SpaceX already has rockets (including heavy lift) and two satellites in orbit. To meet FCC requirements, they must have half their constellation up in under 6 years and all up in 9.
Blue Origin/ Amazon are only now working on regulatory approval and won't have a rocket until at least 2021.


I'd say their (SpaceX) act is very much together.

 

[TNEVol]

I agree with everything else you wrote, except this detail. Here's what happened I think:

• The lead SEC lawyer arguing the contempt motion was not part of the settlement negotiations. I believe this was deliberate, so that she could credibly push a legal theory and interpretation unsupported by the negotiation evidence.
• The SEC did not fully counter Elon's evidence of settlement intent - they just objected to it in generic terms and indicated that they'd submit more evidence if the court examines this question. I.e. they ran away from this topic.

My reading:

• The SEC didn't expect that Elon would comply by "not tweeting material information at all".
• When Tesla replied that none of Elon's tweets were reviewed they genuinely considered this as evidence of reckless non-compliance - while the opposite was true.
• They jumped on Elon, expecting an easy win and them folding under shareholder pressure.
• Instead the fine lawyers from Hueston Hennigan ate Cheryl Crumpton for breakfast, have gained the sympathy of the judge, and have now opened up a wide range of options to clarify or even invalidate the settlement.

Could be. Rather than conspiracy I am inclined to believe the Commission and staff jump to the tune of the masters, GS, MS etc. Government lawyers in general are looking for the future gold ring at one of the investment banks, Wall Street law firm or corporate securities counsel. They have all kinds of unofficial networks with these entities and would simply agree with whatever the BS is about Tesla and EM. It is the crowd they run with. That also explains the leaks about the case to the mainstream media.
I will say this if I were the General Counsel for the SEC I would be highly embarrassed at this contempt motion and the argument made to the court.

 

[Paracelsus]

I wonder what kind of antediluvian stories they will tell about us 1,000's of years from now due to our Species continued efforts to raise ocean levels. Perhaps the next Noah's Ark story will be about a Great Man that attempted to start a collective consciousness movement towards a more sustainable planet with TE & TM but the Fossil Fuel and ICE Dark Forces from Sodom and Gomorahh (Detroit, WS, and Germany) protected by their army of paid trolls tried to burn him on the Cross (the SEC hearings). But Elon arose from the dead 3 days later with FCA news and saved the planet from beyond

 

[lascavarian]

FCA's golden geese are Jeep and Ram.

In the Sandy Munro video, there is an enthusiastic discussion of the upcoming Jeep Gladiator which Sandy described as a jeep on a Ram truck frame. He is getting one.

Jeep is one of those iconic brands that will live on. It is tantalizing to ponder how a Tesla FCA joint venture might work out.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

But it *is* fair to correct for the unpriced externality of carbon pollution. Failure to do so is unfair.

In this case, my audience is one that believes it isn’t fair. Even if you believe it isn’t, tough *sugar*, life isn’t fair.

 

[EVNow]

'"FCA is committed to reducing the emissions of all our products...The purchase pool provides flexibility to deliver products our customers are willing to buy while managing compliance with the lowest cost approach," FCA added in a statement.'

So, FCA is saying - for the foreseeable future
- They won't make EVs
- They will try to make their cars more fuel efficient
- They will just keep paying Tesla (because that is cheaper than paying fines or building EVs)

The big groups that currently have no EV programs
- Toyota
- Honda
- FCA
- Ford

Did I miss anyone ? As the emissions regime gets tougher worldwide, all these groups will have to pay all their profits to Tesla

 

[Khamul]

Huh?
SpaceX already has rockets (including heavy lift) and two satellites in orbit. To meet FCC requirements, they must have half their constellation up in under 6 years and all up in 9.
Blue Origin/ Amazon are only now working on regulatory approval and won't have a rocket until at least 2021.

I'd say their (SpaceX) act is very much together.

Also, they [Amazon/BO] have hired the former SpaceX VP of Starlink (the SpaceX network). He was fired for basically being too slow. He wanted another round of test sats and Elon didn't. He'll fit just fine with Blue Origin and their gradatim pace.

 

[KarenRei]

I wonder what kind of antediluvian stories they will tell about us 1,000's of years from now due to our Species continued efforts to raise ocean levels. Perhaps the next Noah's Ark story will be about a Great Man that attempted to start a collective consciousness movement towards a more sustainable planet with TE & TM but the Fossil Fuel and ICE Dark Forces from Sodom and Gomorahh (Detroit, WS, and Germany) protected by their army of paid trolls tried to burn him on the Cross (the SEC hearings). But Elon arose from the dead 3 days later with FCA news and saved the planet from beyond

View attachment 394692

.... in fulfillment of the prophecy

 

[lklundin]

Their main argument now is
- No demand
- Cooked books

Mix in some speculation that the SEC will cause removal of Elon Musk as CEO.

 

[KarenRei]

Mix in some speculation that the SEC will cause removal of Elon Musk as CEO.

Remember when the theory was that the feds were going to arrest Elon on-stage at the Model Y event? That was a great one

 

[Prunesquallor]

Regarding 1: each agreement can only be 5 years max, but they can have multiple consecutive agreements.

The pooling agreement itself might protect Tesla. Further, I don't see Tesla being on the hook since they are not the ones with the emissions (agreement calls out action if pool manager can't meet requirements in sub part 3, and allows dissolution of pool in sub part 4)

I didn’t see anything that defined how the pool emissions we computed. This is my guess, which would let some enterprising person estimate the number of Teslas that need to be sold in the EU to meet the emissions cap if they can research the variables:

 

[dgodfrey]

Yes, I agree the 20% is a ceiling, but why would Tesla accept less? The regulatory regime in question runs only 2 years to 2021, and it's doubtful FCA could develop their own EV tech in that time frame.

Going, forward, FCA may wish to partner with Tesla for more than just emissions pooling (cf Deliver Van rumors). The EU C02 standards are a moving target. And Tesla might have other offers.

Security and reduction of risk are worth the extra premium, since FCA is so late to the game.

Good point and someone mentioned that Chrysler currently supplies the UPS truck fleet. Wasn't sure if "cf Deliver Van rumors" was intended to imply that.