Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Gigapress]

Honestly, I don't understand this level of detail of the IRA yet. If the prize of the Model 3 P stays over the threshold of USD 55'000, they won't get any credits for these cars, right? So it would make sense to use batteries from CATL or LG for the Model 3 P?

Correct, but in that case if Tesla were shipping batteries from China to US then it wouldn't be motivated by a desire to produce more 3Ps starting in January, since they aren't eligible for subsidies anyway.

EDIT: I meant correct to the first question only. The M3P probably needs high nickel cells as @Artful Dodger said below.

 

[Max Plaid]

It means exactly what it appeared to mean: It's untrue that Tesla China planned to cut production due to soft demand. Why this confuses anyone is beyond me.

Bloomberg claimed it was a 20% reduction on the Model Y production - which makes zero sense to me, if anything I could imagine M3 being ramped down a bit, but the MY is insanely popular and it would make send to build the cars and export them, even if it meant having them delivered in Q1

Another thing to consider is if they wanted to pull a demand-handle, bring in a new colour - look what happened with the GF4 MY's; you can't get a red one until June, so again that doesn't add up either

However, "untrue" could mean that 20% production cut is not correct, but they're making a 50% production cut - just saying... a better response would have been "Tesla plans no production cuts at any factories in the foreseeable future as we are busy trying to ramp-up production to meet increasing demand" - this would have shut down the whole thing dead

 

[Artful Dodger]

So it would make sense to use batteries from CATL or LG for the Model 3 P?

Not sure if serious...

 

[nativewolf]

I think you misread or I wrote badly. They should keep production high and find a lever to do so, if they failed to do so then execution failed and that happens to everyone and it is a possible outcome you did not list. a PR dept would describe issues and Tesla response and keep stock price higher and that is good for the transition to sustainable transport. Tesla workers are compensated with stock and for 2 years it is a roller coaster and down overall. I believe PR dept would reduce some of the roller coaster and help drive stock price appreciation in events like the semi launch which was a nothing burger for shareholders . A profound product that didn’t even budge the ticker. The implication that Tesla can come up with alternate battery capacity to replace Reno in 13 months is huge.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think the uncertainty is they could be saying the specific claim of a 20% cut is untrue. So if it was cut by 15% instead of 20%, Tesla China would be correct.

You are of course correct, at least from a technical perspective. I view it as highly unlikely however, that Tesla China would call the statement false or untrue simply because they got the exact percentage of a production cut due to low demand wrong. The key thing is, there is no demand problem in China or elsewhere. We know this from more than just Tesla China's statement, from multiple sources and reasonings.

I do think Tesla may be limiting production temporarily to deal with shortages or to increase efficiency. Sometimes overtime pay or the way personnel must be managed can make it more expensive per car to build more rather than less. I'm not saying I know what is going on, I'm saying it's not going to change Tesla's trajectory. It's just FUD about normal fluctuations on the way to massive success.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think it is fair to say if markets go red tomorrow on PPI, TSLA tests 166. If that doesn’t hold….

…the sky falls?
…Tesla goes bankrupt?
…the cat misses the litter box?

On the edge of my seat waiting for the answer to this cliff hanger…

 

[Max Plaid]

We were hearing from multiple unbiased sources that orders had slowed down significantly about a month or two ago. My feeling is that they cut through the backlog and haven't had incoming orders come in at the rate they expected. This isn't to say demand has cratered. It's just not what they expected. And that would make perfect sense given everything going on with the Chinese economy. I believe they are going to be left with more MIC cars in inventory than they expected at the end of the quarter because they planned to have more local deliveries than what they ended up with. Q4 is still going to be strong compared to previous quarters. They still had some backlog to work through, I believe, but that's done now. We'll see what happens going forward.

We get very little info from Tesla itself, so I have no specific information except what I can piece together through other sources. Like I said...it's a gut feeling. But I also said I'm not that concerned.

That's the problem, we don't know, we're all guessing. Most of us here are bulls, own the cars and know how fantastic they are. Well also know that Tesla is currently setting delivery records this quarter pretty much everywhere and do still have a backlog of orders from other Asian countries, not to mention Australia too, regardless of the huge number of ships heading there right now

Added to that the huge CN deliveries already in Q4, the news that the little fire-sale cleared out all existing inventory, it just doesn't add up to slowing production, ship 'em to Oz, or the EU, or Thailand, etc.

So for me although I do not know whether Tesla will indeed reduce GF3 production in December, if they are doing so it's not for demand reasons. As many others have stated, might be logistics, or supply-chain, workforce shortage due to C19, production-line updates, etc., but not demand

But the story is being spun as demand to help-out the WS crooks, and that's what's so frustrating about it, if there was indeed to be a reduction, then the actual reason behind it would be less damaging than the speculation

 

[UncaNed]

Haven't we all sacrificed enough YTD?

Indeed. So now let's try sacrificing some shorts, perhaps that will work better.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Go and give Rob some likes folks

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600514468282355716

 

[WattsHappening]

I took these at my local Tesla showroom on Wednesday, it's rather pretty... no delivery window yet for the wife's yet, assuming March-ish

View attachment 882775View attachment 882776View attachment 882777View attachment 882778

My wife had an original light silver Model 3. I always thought that color was kind of meh/boring.

But this Quicksilver: that's just damn sexy!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Correct, but in that case if Tesla were shipping batteries from China to US then it wouldn't be motivated by a desire to produce more 3Ps starting in January, since they aren't eligible for subsidies anyway.

Ah, incorrect. You use nickel batteries for high-performance EVs, for the same reason you would choose an iron battery for an economy EV: suitability for the task.

*Hint: Performance and high-nickel is all about the power/weight ratio. Bloat won't win.

 

[Queeg500]

Tesla is starting to fail just as MSM is starting to tell the truth.
What a coincidence.

 

[bkp_duke]

Ah, incorrect. You use nickel batteries for high-performance EVs, for the same reason you would choose an iron battery for an economy EV: suitability for the task.

View attachment 882786

*Hint: Performance and high-nickel is all about the power/weight ratio. Bloat won't win.

JHC - at least give a man some warning. Like a NSFW tag or something.

That thing is just HIDEOUS. Like Freddy Keuger had a baby with the queen from Aliens, hideous.




I'm going to have nightmares for a week now.



/me goes to sit in his P3D to sooth himself . . .

 

[nativewolf]

Go and give Rob some likes folks

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600514468282355716

No not really, did gigaberlin lay off anyone in June? Or May. I have no idea but I sort of doubt it. Unless rob offers contrary facts such as vacancies listed for 12 months the tweet is aCtually more on target, if sensational

 

[elasalle]

i quietly added April 250 calls ... demand be dammed

 

[wipster]

Hey @bkp_duke , my fears have come true:

PSE substations attacked in November

At least six attacks at electricity substations in Washington and Oregon, including two at Puget Sound Energy substations, have been reported to the FBI in recent weeks.

www.seattletimes.com

 

[bkp_duke]

No not really, did gigaberlin lay off anyone in June? Or May. I have no idea but I sort of doubt it. Unless rob offers contrary facts such as vacancies listed for 12 months the tweet is aCtually more on target, if sensational

Hey, the guy in the tweet had a follow up tweet bragging about how he thinks his article dropped the TSLA share price.

That in and of itself is sufficient to destroy any credibility he might have had.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla shouldn't deny any production reduction rumors. If Chinese customers think production is dropping they'll be less likely to wait for lower prices.

 

[bkp_duke]

Hey @bkp_duke , my fears have come true:

PSE substations attacked in November

At least six attacks at electricity substations in Washington and Oregon, including two at Puget Sound Energy substations, have been reported to the FBI in recent weeks.

www.seattletimes.com

Figures. Someone saw the news and decided to copycat. What do we need to do, wrap these things in Kevlar?

 

[Dikkie Dik]

No not really, did gigaberlin lay off anyone in June? Or May. I have no idea but I sort of doubt it. Unless rob offers contrary facts such as vacancies listed for 12 months the tweet is aCtually more on target, if sensational

Rob is correct.

The number mentioned in the article is global vacancies, not Berlin.

The whole article is a hit-piece.