Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drumheller]

No not really, did gigaberlin lay off anyone in June? Or May. I have no idea but I sort of doubt it. Unless rob offers contrary facts such as vacancies listed for 12 months the tweet is aCtually more on target, if sensational

If Tesla is preparing to add a new shift in Berlin, would job openings not suddenly increase?

I, literally on the previous page of this thread, just posted evidence of that same reporter bragging about harming TSLA stock price with his hit piece "news" article.

 

[wipster]

I think you misread or I wrote badly. They should keep production high and find a lever to do so, if they failed to do so then execution failed and that happens to everyone and it is a possible outcome you did not list. a PR dept would describe issues and Tesla response and keep stock price higher and that is good for the transition to sustainable transport. Tesla workers are compensated with stock and for 2 years it is a roller coaster and down overall. I believe PR dept would reduce some of the roller coaster and help drive stock price appreciation in events like the semi launch which was a nothing burger for shareholders . A profound product that didn’t even budge the ticker. The implication that Tesla can come up with alternate battery capacity to replace Reno in 13 months is huge.

Bear in mind Panasonic is heavily involved in GigaNevada as well. If you're talking about moving into the actual factory that is instead of the building in which they're currently building Semi's...

 

[wipster]

Indeed. So now let's try sacrificing some shorts, perhaps that will work better.

OT...
I hear Putin sacrificed a pair the other day...

 

[wipster]

Figures. Someone saw the news and decided to copycat. What do we need to do, wrap these things in Kevlar?

Or it could be an organized group, that's what concerns me. Texas is probably next.

 

[Cherry Wine]

@Krugerrand this you?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600915043360673829

 

[replicant]

How would a PR dept help accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy?

By providing ways for people who care about the mission to better fight the FUD.

Remember this? A Most Peculiar Test Drive | Tesla

That post helped many of us defend Tesla against lies and misinformation. Now that Elon is too busy fighting wokism, maybe Tesla could a small team to occasionally share some simple facts and prove the worst and most efficient FUD wrong in words. Without expecting the world to anticipate Tesla's great future earnings or do market research to realize that EV work, and Tesla is already a big success.

Elon could just retweet these posts and let people discuss content outside his personal fee, without making everything personal. Tesla goes beyond Elon.

I've long whished for Tesla to have a voice that's not embroiled in political fights and media clashed, a voice 100% committed to Tesla's mission – be it a face, a name, a brand, "someone at Tesla" or even a nick "ahah yes hedgehog".

 

[Dutchie]

The way I see it, and this is my totally rough guessing, the possible explanations for a china production cut are:

1. The demand has dropped more rapidly than Tesla expected, and they cannot sell full production even with price cuts (10% likely)
2. There are logistics challenges outside of Teslas control, and they phjysically do not have space to hold production until these are fixed (20% likely)
3. There are upgrades coming to the model 3, starting in China, and they need to scale back production so they can integrate a new model 3 (35% likely)
4. They are supply constrained in shanghai due to covid affecting a parts supplier. (35% likely).

I don't think Tesla really need to comment yet, especially as they can do so in a more orderly fashion on the next earnings call. I find it hard to believe that they are incapable of adjusting price to meet local demand, so even with a complete collapse of China demand, they could sell model 3s and Ys at just above cost if they absolutely had to. This just feels unlikely to me.

Berlin & Texas are mid ramp, and fremont is a hugely over-stuffed frankenstein factory. If Tesla wanted to work on an upgrade to the model 3 that dramatically reduced its production cost, and allow for a cheaper model to be made, then IMHO Shanghai is the best market to do so. The market for a cheaper model 3 there is probably pretty big.

The problem we have right now as shareholders is that it genuinely looks like Elon is ignoring Tesla. So many tweets about twitter, and even spacex, but not about Tesla. I would love to see him tweeting more about the semi, or about FSDs progress.

Why do you believe an article citing “people familiar with the situation”?

On the conference call it was said numerous times that there is no demand issue and Tesla sells all the cars it can make. If that situation changes Tesla has a fiduciary obligation to tell us. As long as there is no information from Tesla that is where it stands and the rest is fluff.

On a side note.

We can all agree that TSLA went a bit ahead of itself last year. The normal cause of action was to step back and a share price increase in the single digits or even flat. How much is it down now, almost 60%? There are some strange forces who want to bring Tesla to its knees.

 

[2daMoon]

Or it could be an organized group, that's what concerns me. Texas is probably next.

Texan: "Oh yeah, we were on the way to a High School football game and saw the perpetrator taking aim at the power station. From the back of the moving pickup Bubba threw a beer bottle at his head and knocked him out. Then, we called the Sherrif."

 

[Usain]

I've been away from this thread for a few days. But I just had this thought to share.

Is the 4th quarter going to be "Epic" like Elon said?

Let's see. Production is way-way up. Price cuts have been rather puny and mostly limited to "in stock" vehicles. It's possible that ASP could be even higher than Q3. "Epic" might be an understatement.

What am I missing here?

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I took these at my local Tesla showroom on Wednesday, it's rather pretty... no delivery window for the wife's yet, assuming March-ish

View attachment 882775View attachment 882776View attachment 882777View attachment 882778

Nice colours do NOT make up for lack of FSDbeta in any way !

 

[Krugerrand]

@Krugerrand this you?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600915043360673829

I don’t appreciate being doxxed.

 

[Dutchie]

I own a few dividend stocks now that I'm approaching traditional retirement age, but have never been a huge fan of them. As a growth investor for the last 30+ years, I have found it more capital efficient to have a couple of years living expenses in cash, and the rest invested in growth, while periodically selling small bits of highly appreciated stock to fund lifestyle expenses after I retired. This only works out better if you generally pick good growth stocks. My investment style weighs heavily on not picking highly speculative or dead-end growth stocks.

If an extended downturn ever happened, and I wanted to continue spending money at my normal rates, I would sell off the dividend stocks to fund my lifestyle, based on the principle that they are probably less under-valued than the high growth stocks which tend to get hammered harder during downturns. So far that has never been necessary.

I've never understood people's fixation on "income", once I saw how easy it was to generate outsized returns with the careful picking of growth stocks and compounding returns. If you have a lot more assets than you spend, you don't need traditional income, capital gains can substitute. Relying on dividend bearing stocks for living expenses greatly reduces the amount of capital you have available to invest in growth.

The secret is to not live off your capital gains too soon in the process. Keep working or cut lifestyle expenses instead. Too many investors grow their lifestyle expenses too fast relative to their actual financial position when they have their first successes with growth stocks. The secret is to continue to re-invest (or stay invested) so you can compound your returns. It won't be too long before you no longer care about income, and you can periodically sell off portions of your gains without substantially reducing your position. If you start doing that too soon, to fund ballooning lifestyle expenses, you will never get there.

All nice, but I see so many frugal people with huge assets die at a relatively young age. I like to live now as well. I booked a nice Caribbean cruise for February. I should have sold when I booked the cruise, that was my mistake. At these prices I still 10X-ed my money. Now I have to sell this month. Will buy back in 2023.

 

[Gigapress]

We can all agree that TSLA went a bit ahead of itself last year.

I don't agree with that.

I stand by what I posted last November when many were saying that.

In my opinion this action now is the stock catching up to the fundamentals. The gross margins, growth and operating leverage are just that good.

Let's look at 2025. Conservative scenario:
--> 4.5 million vehicle deliveries
* All 4 factories at scale
* Supply constraints eased

--> 37% gross margins
* 4680s hitting pack-level cost <$80/kWh
* Front and rear casting on all production lines
* Raging demand causing effectively a bidding war
* Plaid S/X and Cybertruck scaling
* Eliminating long-haul shipping costs including EU import tariffs, ceasing The Wave in general
* New paint shop
* Improving first-pass quality and thus factory efficiency and warranty costs
* And more.
(At $47k average selling price this basically means an average margin increase of just $3.3k from today. Considering this list of improvements queued up, frankly I struggle to see a realistic way gross margins don't bloat to 40-50% by 2025, unless Tesla cuts prices so much that the order backlog extends 3-4 years and scalpers just buy up most of the production to flip it on the used market for an easy arbitrage profit.)

--> Opex grows to over $10 Billion
* About 70% increase over 2021.
* Pandemic-related inefficiencies will have worn off by 2025.
* Internal enterprise software will only get better over time.

--> Energy gross profit merely $8 billion off 70 GWh deployed
* About $100 profit/kWh deployed including Autobidder and any home solar upsell

--> Exclude FSD and other software contributions to margins beyond what Tesla already achieved today, solar roof, insurance, any major new products.

Operating earnings per share after tax approximately $50.

$2,500 is only 50x P/E, which is ludicrously low considering they'd likely be on track to more than triple profits by 2030 to $150/share. All still EXCLUDING any robotaxi cash cow and even any significant FSD subscription profits. No substantial solar profits, no major new products ready. This much earnings power just making and selling cars and batteries.

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

Freedom of speech is implied that you are free to spew FUD. Cricket(s) sound deafens truth.

Trying to seek the truth and come out alive.

Cheers

 

[GOVA]

People and trolls (especially) care too much about very little things that aren't true and try to make a big deal about it.

From the latest things 2 have been outstanding to me. First, Tim Cook vs Elon feud had been handled extermely well by Tim. Second, the rumor from yesterday from Tesla Tech bout the batteirs and many improvements that not many outside of Tesla are aware of.

Surprised at many trying to make a big deal of fake FUD lately brought by the other 'media'

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So we have the Nov production number now - 88,564.

If you do some back of the napkin math with what wholesale for Nov was + ballpark of what inventory was going into Q4......yeah Tesla doesn't have a big amount of inventory in China right now. Situation not nearly as dire as it's being portrayed.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Elon:
Tesla Team has done incredibly well, despite extremely difficult times. Could not be more proud of them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600932080237453312

 

[Max Plaid]

My wife had an original light silver Model 3. I always thought that color was kind of meh/boring.

But this Quicksilver: that's just damn sexy!

My first Tesla, P85, was silver, I loved it, would have gotten my MX Plaid in silver if available, but alas not, so stuck with the boring white - you don't see many white MX around here, so it's OK

 

[thesmokingman]

Elon:
Tesla Team has done incredibly well, despite extremely difficult times. Could not be more proud of them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600932080237453312

That ends the FUDDY demand drop, low inv crap right? Can hope at least...

 

[wipster]

This is too cool! Tesla Semi Matchbox edition!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600932546543767552

Posted on Tesla Semi thread too Mr. Mod...