Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I call + 8 % today and that is guaranteed. If not I will leave this board and you have to follow Musk and Moneyball yourself.

Drop in occassionally to say hi. We'll miss your sense of humor.

Your loss.

Only if you sold.

 

[tslalala]

I have a different take. I think Q4 results might expose them as the little boy who called wolf. You can only call "wolf" so many times before no one listens to you. My take is they will push it as low as they can before results and then let it run as high as it wants to go, at least to that point where a natural correction and profit-taking is inevitable. There is a run to well over $200 before earnings are even released. After earnings it will go higher if this is a blow-out quarter. Then they may start hammering it down again, we will see. But I do sense we are close timewise to the time they need to execute their big, scary drop and then let er run. They have to do this because as they push it lower, it becomes like a pressure cooker that needs to let off steam. If they wait too long, they cannot successfully execute their big scary drop at the end.

Excellent take and analysis, @StealthP3D ! We've seen this strategy before, like every quarter. We need to wait for the Q4 earnings report. Until then, we will continue to deal with short/distort attacks.

 

[Captkerosene]

Just signed a contract to sell my airplane. Guess what I'll be doing with the money?

 

[tslalala]

There is a third option:

Option 3: The MM's are pushing the stock down to trigger margin calls and stop limits.

The most likely situation is we are just seeing blatant manipulation for short term financial gains. Wall Street has seen an opening due to low buying volumes (for a myriad of reasons) and they are taking advantage of it to the extreme while they can.

Elon selling is a rather small negative for a brief moment in time, and I doubt the market knows anything substantial we here do not. I think both of your options are unlikely reasons for this long term downtrend we are in.

I think you're right, @Mengy - short hedge funds are trying to use MM's to trigger margin calls and stop limits - standard, garden variety tactic.

 

[tslalala]

The GME strategy.

We need to rope WSB into using their retail power to burn the MM’s so bad there won’t be anything left that a broom and dustpan can’t handle.

TSLA was GME before GME. You're right though, we need to blow up the MM's and short hedge funds till they get bankrupted!

 

[Thekiwi]

Elon agrees:
View attachment 884552

Last week Elon tweeted about multiple Macro headwinds for current Quarter: EU energy costs, fed rate, china real estate bubble bursting

This week he tweets Tesla will be great LONG TERM, but doesn’t control macroeconomic tides.

cant help but feel like these are breadcrumbs

 

[phantasms]

Just signed a contract to sell my airplane. Guess what I'll be doing with the money?

Jeeaze...how many people have airplanes around here? I should have bought TSLA before 2018. lol

p.s. @Artful Dodger rebalancing is on a Sunday?

 

[tslalala]

Also, there is the quiet period. IIRC, that starts two weeks prior to quarter end and doesn't open until 48 hours after earnings are announced. So effectively, Tesla has just this week if they want to take advantage of the tax break that ends Dec 31.

I don't see it happening.

I agree. Much as I'd like some/any TSLA buying support, a December buyback would be too short-term and risking TSLA's rainy day fund that they may very well need in the next 1-2 years (before a new bull market can start).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So what are the rules for a company starting a buy back without officially announcing it?

The amount of volume today is the largest volume I've seen since period of the 2020 stock split/S&P inclusion. We're tracking for 160-170 million shares traded today. Something is going on today. There's got to be some big accumulation going.......Tesla might one of the ones accumulating

 

[tslalala]

I am holding. There are just too many positive catalysts that are hidden in this FUD storm.

Right on, brother! I'm holding for the same real reasons and will not give in to stupid short/distort/FUD attacks.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I agree. Much as I'd like some/any TSLA buying support, a December buyback would be too short-term and risking TSLA's rainy day fund that they may very well need in the next 1-2 years (before a new bull market can start).

No it's not.

Dear lord can we stop this non-sense. Look at the cashflow brought in by Tesla in Q3. Now factor in Berlin/Austin are each easily doing 2000/week MORE than they did in Q3. Shanghai production is 25-30% higher than Q3. That's massive FCF incoming for Q4. Tesla could be buying billions worth of shares today and it will have ZERO effect on thier rainy day fund.

 

[tslalala]

So what are the rules for a company starting a buy back without officially announcing it?

The amount of volume today is the largest volume I've seen since period of the 2020 stock split/S&P inclusion. We're tracking for 160-170 million shares traded today. Something is going on today. There's got to be some big accumulation going.......Tesla might one of the ones accumulating

I wish that it was Tesla buying but it probably isn't since they'd need to first announce an approved buyback (which they haven't).

 

[Knightshade]

So what are the rules for a company starting a buy back without officially announcing it?

They aren't required to announce in advance, but most companies do so because it can protect them from charges of various securities/insider trading violations.... (somewhat similar to how a 10b5-1 plan can protect individual insiders)

if they do it without announcing then IIRC they have 2 days to file an 8k with the SEC after the purchase.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I wish that it was Tesla buying but it probably isn't since they'd need to first announce an approved buyback (which they haven't).

Which is why I asked the question I did. I don't think it's clear if a buy back has to be officially announced or if the board just has to meet to approve it, at which point Tesla can start buying stock as soon as it wants, regardless of whether its' been officially announced or not.

 

[tslalala]

No it's not.

Dear lord can we stop this non-sense. Look at the cashflow brought in by Tesla in Q3. Now factor in Berlin/Austin are each easily doing 2000/week MORE than they did in Q3. Shanghai production is 25-30% higher than Q3. That's massive FCF incoming for Q4. Tesla could be buying billions worth of shares today and it will have ZERO effect on thier rainy day fund.

The rainy day fund would be for the next year or two where the entire world is looking at a recession at the very least, a severe recession realistically, or a global depression at the bad end. All companies earnings and stock prices drop during recessions (and much worse during depressions). Not worth risking TSLA at an existential level.

 

[Artful Dodger]

if one was looking for basic transportation, some of the other offerings now (Taycan...)

Lol, 'basic' transportation? You think a Porsche Taycan is basic transportation? With a base price of $100K

 

[OrthoSurg]

Sure feels like a retail shake-out day to me. New low on ridiculous volume but starting to see an intraday reversal now that they've succeeded in burning leveraged investors. If we somehow end green and then Fed is dovish tomorrow...

A maniac bear read when CPI numbers are cooling down when everything was +5% premarket seems to me the last attempt to grab every shares they could at the lowest possible price the day before the fed pivots and slows down the rate hikes. Just before the Christmas rally. That’s my theory. Because I really don’t want to see 140s

 

[tslalala]

Which is why I asked the question I did. I don't think it's clear if a buy back has to be officially announced or if the board just has to meet to approve it, at which point Tesla can start buying stock as soon as it wants, regardless of whether its' been officially announced or not.

Announcing a buyback has strategic value too - it puts short hedge funds on notice even before having to spend a single dollar (psychological effect, just like Jay Powell does during each of his Fed tightening/rate increase speeches) this year.

 

[elasalle]

Elon agrees:
View attachment 884552

Don’t think Elon would be tweeting this while selling …

 

[Artful Dodger]

@Artful Dodger[/USER] rebalancing is on a Sunday?

Haha, fat fingered that one. Friday, December 16, 2022 is the S&P 500 rebalance date.