Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

If investors really want the board to do something because stock price, instead of a buyback, announce a split executing in two weeks from announcement.

And watch the chaos as naked shorting gets caught with their pants down.

I'm not sure that will matter alot, unless get rid of madoff rule
Failures to deliver 2020 to mid november 2020

Failures to deliver, since 3:1 split to now. not sure but percent of FTD, lately never seems to get very high at all
perhaps say a few rapid 5:4 splits to throw a "wrench into the works"

 

[MikeC]

Sure feels like a retail shake-out day to me. New low on ridiculous volume but starting to see an intraday reversal now that they've succeeded in burning leveraged investors. If we somehow end green and then Fed is dovish tomorrow...

 

[Singuy]

Because short sellers are basically gamblers and not investors. Once they have a hot run, they keep at it. A few pull out in time but for most the odds will catch up with them and they will lose big time.

However with these other companies, if they get it wrong in the short term they can still get out by waiting because of their trash fundamentals.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599827544181809152

 

[Drumheller]

In the meantime, retail investors who are over-leveraged and don’t have time on their side are having to face margin calls, maintenance calls and heavy losses. His biggest supporters are hurting, he’s letting them down.

Gamblers are hurting the most, not investors. Don't use margin, don't play with options. Greed gets people into trouble.

Every option, every margin, and every stop loss is additional information for wall street to use against you, to make money, and to manipulate TSLA. It's gambling against a house that can see your hand at all times.

 

[bkp_duke]

To offset margin pressure as car prices decline, tesla may/should cast both front and back
Structures in all the models in all the factories.

Furthermore the cost benefits of the 4680 and integrating the battery pack as
part of the structure, further improves margins.

These two combined should allow to offset upcoming price declines
necessary to move the increased production.

input commodity costs declines are also beneficial in offsetting lower
car prices allowing margins to remain about the same.

if you draw the typical demand/supply curves on a graph, as the supply
curve shifts to the right, equilibrium is set at higher production and lower
price. if everything else remains the same, expect tesla to lower prices.

However, IRA is about to shift the demand curve to the right, this
will make things interesting and frankly bullish.

The S/X are not high enough volume to justify castings (we have been told this).

The 3 can't be cast without completely reworking the production lines (think 2-3 months of downtime per line that this is done on). I would expect a "cast" 3 to happen with the next refresh (there is a rumor for late 2023, but nothing at all confirmed).

 

[bkp_duke]

So why are naked short sellers or any short sellers so interested in Tsla, a cash flow positive S&P 500 stock when something like Lucid had enough cash left on yhe balance sheet to last them only 3 more quarters? Makes no sense to play with fire with Tesla.

Because the options market for TSLA is very liquid and their actions can be hidden in the noise, even though they have a profound effect on the share price. LCID, I doubt that it is that liquid, and manipulating it probably runs a much higher risk of the trades getting seen, flagged, and drawing unwanted attention.

 

[phantasms]

The competition is not coming. This was posted on a social media page I manage. Nothing we didn't already know but still. Also, there's a ton of fake news on this page so don't look at it as gospel. In fact don't look at anything as gospel...unless it comes from Rob Maurer.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

But I feel for those who are younger and have a serious stake in this company. Ugh. - Why would this statement be true? If you are younger and have a serious stake, you have nothing but time and $TSLA will ultimately win out in the next 5-10 years.

Yah true.

 

[Krugerrand]

“Arresting the slide means changing Musk’s behavior on his social media platform.”

Perception is reality, fundamentals don’t matter. Tesla brand is hurting and the market is reacting to that. Shorts are taking full advantage. Tesla board is silent.

Until Elon Musk is done with this Twitter mess that he created, stock will be depressed. In my opinion he’s picked the wrong fight. Cannot win the battle with government to force free speech, no matter how rich you are or how brilliant an engineer you are.

In the meantime, retail investors who are over-leveraged and don’t have time on their side are having to face margin calls, maintenance calls and heavy losses. His biggest supporters are hurting, he’s letting them down.

Perception is not static and if you take a moment to change your perspective, you then have the ability to see things in a whole different light.

Fundamentals absolutely do matter for this company because they drive it forward day after day after day toward a number of goals. But not only that, the fundamentals are an expression of the health and stability of the business regardless of what is going on beyond its walls. Tesla is as solid as a company of its size and growth rate and potential could possibly be made. It probably looks like a work of art to any businessman or accountant worth their salt.

In terms of picking *this* fight - your argument against is not good enough. Because it seems impossible and insurmountable is exactly why it needs to happen. The people are being deceived at a level of epic proportions, including Elon. I don’t believe anything I read or hear from any source on any topic. Link a study to prove one thing and I’ll link you five that say something different. There’s no way to know on any Internet platform who’s real and who’s not real unless you know the other person in RL face to face. You can’t believe anyone who gets paid by the words that come out of their mouths. I don’t think all of mankind even knows how to be truthful.

Lastly, he owes us nothing. If you think he does, then start by owing him a little bit of faith and support for how far he’s brought us during this tough time.

Typical human behavior, what have you done for me lately and abandon ship the moment things get a bit hard. All I see on this forum of late is the people who can be counted on and the people who can’t be counted on.

 

[bkp_duke]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599827544181809152

Demand problem. All of those are headed straight for the scrapyard. /s

 

[Cobbler]

For those who skip long posts:


Stop worrying and buy the damn stock!!

This is the investors sub, not the traders sub! We hold and buy for several years.
Tesla stock is our savings account

The END

Elon agrees:

 

[mach-edriver]

My Tesla lives a few blocks away from you. It seems to enjoy US-23 and the long trip to get to really nice roads along the Blue Ridge Parkway. It's true the Gables has no nice driving roads but delightful tree lined streets for wandering.

Right… Old Cutler’s nice too, but no long scenic drives hereabouts. I’m a native, but I must say that Miami overall is horribly laid out. In cities from Boston to Philadelphia there are always roads along rivers and bays. Here, despite living in à subtropical paradise, there are no boulevards or concourses from which to enjoy the views.

As for the Blue Ridge and another scenic roads up north I’ve gotten to the point where I don’t want to endure two or three days of monotony before enjoying the scenery. Palm Beach is as far as I normally drive which is why I passed on the extra battery in the Mach-E.

For real driving pleasure I LOVE Europe!

 

[Artful Dodger]

So why are naked short sellers or any short sellers so interested in Tsla, a cash flow positive S&P 500 stock when something like Lucid had enough cash left on yhe balance sheet to last them only 3 more quarters? Makes no sense to play with fire with Tesla.

Unclear, but over the past 3 yrs @mongo and I have discussed the following theory. For this S&P 500 rebalancing event, the following is at play:

• the S&P 500 index reference date for the Q4 rebalancing was the 3rd Fri of Nov,
• at that time (Nov 18, 2022), TSLA S&P 500 weight was about 1.439%
• TSLA's previous weight for the Q3 rebalance (as of Aug 18, 22) was ~2.096%

Now this next part is conjecture: S&P 500 index funds will rebalance by selling approx 2.096/1.439 = 45% percent of the TSLA holdings over 3-5 trading sessions centered around the rebalance date (Fri, Dec 16, 2022). That's on the order of 100M shares of TSLA.

Most Index Funds will trade (rebalance) at the Closing Cross on Fri, Dec 16, 2022. That makes today's volume (already 136M shares by 2:15 pm) the 'jockeying' before the main event.

Note that I do not KNOW this, and that @mongo has made a strong case that the daily change in index weights due to SP movements naturally rebalances the index. He may well be right, and there is no issue this week.

However, I persist because the available evidence has lead to successful predictions of strong volume on rebalancing days (typically, extreme volume at the Closing Cross on the rebalance date). So again, I don't know, I'm just following the evidence.

So what is the financial motivation for large hedge funds to beat down TSLA ahead of the S&P 500 rebalancing? They know that a large number of shares will change hands in the week of the rebalancing. If they can drive down the SP before the rebalance date, then they create their own bargain price on a large number of shares. All they have to do afterward is take their boot off the throat of TSLA, selling into the rising SP for a tidy and risk-free profit.

Anyway, I predicted this months ago now, so we'll see if events match the theory. But the puppeteers will not be exposed by this little drama, since they pull all the strings (and they own the theatre).

 

[mach-edriver]

Elon agrees:
View attachment 884552

I think macroeconomics is not what’s weighing down the shares.

 

[tslalala]

It's possible for Tesla to be both a company with a great long term outlook and also suffering in the short term. Both of these can be true. It's not either or.

Very true for TSLA in the past and present. For those around during the Great Financial Crisis (2008-2010'sh), what we're experiencing now with TSLA also happened to AAPL, e.g. relentless FUD and short attacks, claiming Apple's iPhone would clearly lose against such an onslaught of different Android phone manufacturers. This story sounds familiar, right?

 

[2daMoon]

I said I wouldn't discuss it here, it's off topic. I do not think you understand what words mean.

So long as we're clear that the off topic post you made, which started the discussion, is the same discussion you are now reluctant to finish, right? Or, have you responded with examples supporting your statement in Off Topic and just didn't link it in your response here?

It may be worth considering how, if folks would attempt to include supporting information in half of this sort of initial posts, the number of posts they make would likely be reduced by at least 2/3.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Good thing the Shanghai plant is Tesla's main export hub then!!!!

Our Trojan completely missed that Tesla Shanghai sent a 'RoRo' car carrier for the China market last week (Guangzhou, I think). Those ships carry 3K cars. 13k + 3k is 16k That's why the 'weekly insured data' appeared low.

But @Troy didn't think about this.

【Dec.08.2022】Tesla clears inventory at Shanghai Port \Giga shanghai\4K \496 | Wu Wa on Youtube

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon agrees:

Elon showing a lot of restraint today...you just know he wanted to tack a "yet" on the end of there!

 

[tslalala]

The "Elon Musk no longer the richest man" headlines have surfaced yet again. I was informed of this thanks to Twitter.

This is yet another totally irrelevant factoid being spun into fear, uncertainty and doom for TSLA. Elon's status as #1 or #2 has absolutely no bearing on Tesla's performance as a company. This is purely an emotional and perceptual attack trying to wear down us TSLA stock holders. So sad and annoying. If I sell, it will be for real, fundamental reasons, not stupid trivia, like, "oh, Elon's favorite ice cream flavor is strawberry - DUMP YOUR TSLA STOCK IMMEDIATELY!!"