Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

I've always heard that the companies don't last that long, so that's how they have really long warranties - they last a good amount of that time but the company is sold or closed or the previous owner dies and no one remembers or whatever before the long term warranties are claimed in case of failures.

This is getting a bit off topic except for it's relevance to Tesla solar roof. I too am looking at roofing options. The house I need the roof on does not have solar yet and the 20 year roof is on year 22 so I contacted Tesla online. It's been a month and no one has gotten back to me. (there is a serious labor work shortage in my area) I am guessing I will have to contact the three installers myself at some point. Since then I did look at 50 year roofs to add solar on top of for comparison pricing.

Most of the composite roofers I got bids from have been in business for 50+ years. One offers a 50 year warranty and then if you sell the house or someone inherits it they give that new person an additional 50 year. They truly want it to be a lifetime roof. Down side is it's $32 a square foot. Another company with a 50 year warranty composite wants around $9 a square foot not including underlayment so that's probably almost $15 after all is said and down. A 30 year architectural shingle roof (what I have on my primary home) is around $4.2 a square foot. All that priced in my area naturally.

Now comes the part about the out of business thing. If the advanced metal roof (first one I mentioned) needs repairs I can ONLY get it fixed be them. It is a unique product they designed and offer. The composite roof I got a quote on from the manufacturer can only be serviced by three vendors in my area. The architectural shingle roof can be repaired by almost anyone. Those are important factors considering the roofing company that installed my architectural shingle roof on my primary home went bankrupt 10 years after the install. I've had only one flashing repair so it wasn't a quality thing.... it just happens. I mention all this because a tornado was within feet ( <1/4 mile) of my house just a few weeks ago and this is becoming much more frequent as this thing which does not exist continues to get worse (GWP). Two years ago 3 trees were shredded 5 feet from my house and I got lucky the "down draft" wind was going the right way.

Now that leads to the Tesla solar roof. It is at least 100K to install it from what I have been reading. That is over $40 a square foot including say 9 kw. That is more expensive than any of the above roofs plus the solar install in my area.... on par with the advanced metal roof. If there is an issues, and from what I have been reading/experiencing there will be issues (tornadoes, wind down draft, etc), I have to rely on the three companies to stay in business and have enough workers. Basically I could end up with a Tesla warranty but no installers to fix it in my area so I'd have to wait thru the horrible Tesla solar experience line to get someone to come to my state and fix it... all while my roof is leaking from a tree that was picked up and thrown at my house.
Side note.... On my primary house with regular rooftop solar, when I discovered I needed more solar to offset my EV charging needs, I just got upgrades. With a Tesla roof you get what you get forever. You can not add more for a reasonable price.

 

[FireMedic]

All these data, numbers, graphs etc are cool and everything but have you heard that FSD v12.4 will reduce an unknown number of interventions per mile by a factor of 5-10x?

When that unknown future number is realized, it will be far better than the number we presently don’t know.

It’s better enough that this guy is now paying Tesla $100/month starting June 13. Likely in perpetuity.

The FSD free trial worked on me. I think it will work on others as well. I’m excited to see the take rate as this thing goes global.

Prior to V12, FSD was more trouble than it was worth for me (literally only good for investment research). But I have seen a 5-10x reduction in interventions between 12/23 when I last subscribed to now. That’s pretty exciting to me.

I actually don’t see living without FSD going forward. Like my phone data plan or Netflix…I could live without it; but likely I’ll choose not to.

 

[MC3OZ]

After a quick scan I didn't see this video posted:-

The significant information in the video is, the that there are strong rumours that Tesla has sorted out the DBE process for the Cathode, or at least made significant progress.

There are reports about Tesla purchasing cathodes from LG in Korea, and sourcing Lithium Carbonate to make LFP cells.

The LG cathodes will allow Tesla to scale 4680 production to achieve the desired cost reductions.

I am not sure how the mix of DBE cathodes and LG cathodes for 4680s will be managed. Perhaps the Cybertruck and the Robotaxi will use slightly different 4680 cells.

LFP production is likely to be using CATL machinery in the US and mainly for energy storage.

 

[Seattle]

[I trimmed it down a bit] This is getting a bit off topic except for it's relevance to Tesla solar roof. ... [... 50 year roof is exp: ] Down side is it's $32 a square foot. Another company with a 50 year warranty [... ] probably almost $15 after all is said and down. A 30 year architectural shingle roof (what I have on my primary home) is around $4.2 a square foot. All that priced in my area naturally.
[... several of the roofs can only be fixed by that company]

Now that leads to the Tesla solar roof. It is at least 100K to install it from what I have been reading. That is over $40 a square foot including say 9 kw. That is more expensive than any of the above roofs plus the solar install in my area.... on par with the advanced metal roof. If there is an issues, and from what I have been reading/experiencing there will be issues (tornadoes, wind down draft, etc), I have to rely on the three companies to stay in business and have enough workers. Basically I could end up with a Tesla warranty but no installers to fix it in my area so I'd have to wait thru the horrible Tesla solar experience line to get someone to come to my state and fix it... all while my roof is leaking from a tree that was picked up and thrown at my house.
Side note.... On my primary house with regular rooftop solar, when I discovered I needed more solar to offset my EV charging needs, I just got upgrades. With a Tesla roof you get what you get forever. You can not add more for a reasonable price.

This is totally on topic, this is part of evaluating the long term investment potential of Tesla, kind of. I'll allow it.

The people who did my roof have disappeared but the jokes on them and me, I didn't get a 50 year warranty so I didn't lose anything ;-) Mine is 20 years old, I think it had a 30 year shingle warranty or something. I want to get solar but I have years left on my roof, I'm also afraid of Tesla's poor record fixing it quickly when their stuff breaks.

 

[DarkandStormy]

If it is (which I find very hard to believe) it won't be for long in WA state since the $7,500 Fed battery rebate is back for M3LR (and performance I believe), because beginning August the state will giving $5K sales discounts and up to $9K lease discount for EV's ( meant for people with lower incomes) bringing the starting price for an M3LR to $34,990! And honestly, other than a couple grand for paint, I really don't think I would need anything more. And this is for what most reviewers call the Best Car in the World!

And we're not even talking about the lower priced vehicle soon to be coming off the existing production lines. Honestly, I really don't get the naysayers and complainers on this forum recently and can understand why we've lost some of most intelligent posters. It's just not worth the effort to respond anymore. The future looks brighter now than ever, and while the current SP may not reflect it, it will soon... you know in 2 weeks.

Please read the chart and what I said. I was talking about the Model 3 refresh in China. Why are you bringing up WA state? What was that about intelligent posters?

The stock is trading at November 2020 levels. I've been hearing a lot about the SP going up soon. We're not far away from four years of a flat return with the broader market performing much better. Maybe it'll go up, maybe it won't.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Should we give 15+% of a company to a previously successful CEO who stopped paying attention for a year or two except half showing up at important events (remember the last, unorganized weird CT event where a few people drove off with them), right when that company's sales are suddenly dropping, unlike the rest of the industry? The answer is no.

If my TSLA hasn't gone up for a year or two, then I don't have to pay cap gain tax on their appreciated value that happened 3-4 years ago, is that the idea? I like it!

 

[Waiting4M3]

It’s better enough that this guy is now paying Tesla $100/month starting June 13. Likely in perpetuity.

The FSD free trial worked on me. I think it will work on others as well. I’m excited to see the take rate as this thing goes global.

Prior to V12, FSD was more trouble than it was worth for me (literally only good for investment research). But I have seen a 5-10x reduction in interventions between 12/23 when I last subscribed to now. That’s pretty exciting to me.

I actually don’t see living without FSD going forward. Like my phone data plan or Netflix…I could live without it; but likely I’ll choose not to.

I also started using FSD almost all the time now on v12, I don't mind the occasional need to goose the go pedal at stop signs.

One analogy imo is good regen allowing one-pedal driving. Do I still need to use the brake pedal? Yes. Is it worth it to almost never need to use it? YES.

FSD now allows me to go to no-pedal driving. Do I still need the pedals? Yes. Is it worth it to almost never need to use them? YES.

 

[Tony73]

You are missing the point. No other billionaire founder needed to be 'bribed' with billions of new dollars in shares to show up to work. They were all properly motivated to grow their own creations and their boards didn't have to advertise to influence shareholders to vote for an insane amount of compensation. Maybe because it's not really Elon's baby, but it's adopted is why he needs billions more to continue? Next we will be scared into voting to give him trillions? Why didn't Zuck, Bezos, Gates, Huang threaten shareholders for more billions or they'd take their ball and go home?

You are leaving out a critical detail. Musk had to grow valuation from $100B to $650B or he didn’t a single dime.

As for the “founder” nonsense, only people who know zilch about startups find it interesting.

Adoptive parents would find your quip about adopted children offensive.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Stayed in a gu

Stayed at a Guesthouse in Oregon last night. Got free level 2 charging, 10% up to 94%. That's probably a $60-$80 fuel equivalent, free to me. You can find plenty of places offering free or minimal fee overnight charging. Very nice to skip a charging stop on my drive today.

?
250 miles in a 25 mpg vehicle is 10 gallons. How expensive is your gas?

 

[wtlloyd]

?
250 miles in a 25 mpg vehicle is 10 gallons. How expensive is your gas?

I was in California, it's $5-$6/gal and I am assuming a 13-16 gallon tank but I'm not really sure what size tanks are in most cars these days, I think my 2006 CR-V is 13 gallons and has about a 350 range. Of course, the Honda is in no way comparable to a Tesla level vehicle.

 

[Seattle]

And we're not even talking about the lower priced vehicle soon to be coming off the existing production lines. Honestly, I really don't get the naysayers and complainers on this forum recently and can understand why we've lost some of most intelligent posters. It's just not worth the effort to respond anymore. The future looks brighter now than ever, and while the current SP may not reflect it, it will soon... you know in 2 weeks.

The reason for pessimism is sales were down in a significant way in q1 yoy, while other automaker's EV sales went up a good amount. That's not encouraging, and there's no explanation for why q1 was down other than lack of new vehicles that I've seen. I wish I could see a reason why sales were down so much.

Getting the $7500 off back will be helpful for m3LR, sales were down in that earlier report though with several other models having existing 7500. With 10 days left in q2 I don't think it will be enough to cover the apparent shortfall this quarter. But it should help in q3. If sales are still down in q2 yoy I think we have a clear trend. When is that lower priced tesla coming on the market, a year from now? It's an unknown, can't some other company make a lower priced car (enter the boltium which won't be as good as a tesla)?

I want to see new features, new cars, new prices, something to stimulate sales. And I'm sure they'll get there eventually.

 

[Fred42]

I want to get solar but I have years left on my roof, I'm also afraid of Tesla's poor record fixing it quickly when their stuff breaks.

A couple of months ago my Tesla solar had cosmetic damage that didn't affect performance. I used the app and a week later a happy guy showed up and fixed it.

2 1/2 years ago Tesla made an appointment to do a warranty repair. I hadn't known anything was wrong.

No complaint about solar service from me.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon is delivering a masterclass in sales technique on bundling Starlink etc. Shame that the options to do this are fewer with Tesla.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1803644824836243457

 

[Huskyf]

Maybe they are exporting most of the production. I see a lot of M3H here in Europe and that's where they're coming from

They waiting for the performance just wait 2 week's see what's happened actually in Norway this last days....

 

[aubreymcfato]

Regarding the new high EU tariffs on Chinese made EVs: While the initial reaction from TSLA investors was the impact it will have on model 3, I think more consideration needs to be given on how it actually might be very positive for Made-in-Germany Model Y sales.

Surely without a flood of cheap Chinese SUV EVs, Model Y will have a much better value perspective against the remaining EU made EV competition?

What say our EU based members? Is this a plausible outcome?

It's possible, but more likely in the medium term. In the short term, we can expect a surge of new EVs from legacy automakers like Citroen, which I believe will initially perform well. These models are more "European" in style, being shorter and smaller than the Model 3 and Y. It's worth noting that while the Model Y sells well, it's quite a large car by European standards and has a unique/unusual design.

The EV market, particularly in Europe, is heavily influenced by incentives. While these incentives are beneficial, they tend to create a more volatile demand, with people often waiting 6-12 months or longer for their vehicles. As a result, the market becomes more unpredictable.
We're already seeing this effect in Italy and the Czech Republic. With incentives, sales are high, but without them, the market stalls. And let's not forget Germany, which is the "elephant in the room": last year it sold 28k Jan-May. This year just 16k.

Q2 in the EU is expected to decline both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year: April and May were too slow. The key question is by how much. If we can maintain the current gap, I'll be satisfied."

 

[Doggydogworld]

I would like to see some trend lines of each model from these other transparent companies since Tesla lacks so much transparency.

Here is Ford's May 2024 sales report. They release a new one every month. It shows May '24 vs. May '23 plus YTD for both years. It breaks down sales by model, including a couple sub-models like the all-electric F150 Lightning. They also show totals for car/SUV/truck and BEV/hybrid/ICE. Contrary to popular belief, these are sales to end customers, not wholesales to dealers.

Other pages show inventory and production at each plant. Tesla discloses a tiny fraction of this data. They are much less transparent.

 

[samppa]

Regarding the new high EU tariffs on Chinese made EVs: While the initial reaction from TSLA investors was the impact it will have on model 3, I think more consideration needs to be given on how it actually might be very positive for Made-in-Germany Model Y sales.

Surely without a flood of cheap Chinese SUV EVs, Model Y will have a much better value perspective against the remaining EU made EV competition?

What say our EU based members? Is this a plausible outcome?

You need to consider just how much China can still cut their prices. At the moment a chinese car sold in europe brings about 10x the profit compared to selling in China.

China may just eat the costs of the tariffs.

Anyway Model Y doesn't really have much of a chinese competitor.. More likely vw can't sell id.3/4 because chinese cars like mg4 are comparable and way cheaper.

 

[JupiterMan]

Other pages show inventory and production at each plant. Tesla discloses a tiny fraction of this data. They are much less transparent.

remember that Ford data shows sales to dealerships, not to retail customers.

So whilst there is more data, it will have substantial lag in *actual* deliveries to customers.

There may be other factors involved also in moving stock from Ford to dealerships in a specific quarter, through financing agreements with individual dealerships or through targets/incentives for example.

 

[SO16]

remember that Ford data shows sales to dealerships, not to retail customers.

So whilst there is more data, it will have substantial lag in *actual* deliveries to customers.

There may be other factors involved also in moving stock from Ford to dealerships in a specific quarter, through financing agreements with individual dealerships or through targets/incentives for example.

According to his previous sentence in that quote, it is sales to end customers.

 

[aubreymcfato]

You need to consider just how much China can still cut their prices. At the moment a chinese car sold in europe brings about 10x the profit compared to selling in China.

China may just eat the costs of the tariffs.

Anyway Model Y doesn't really have much of a chinese competitor.. More likely vw can't sell id.3/4 because chinese cars like mg4 are comparable and way cheaper.

Mmmm, they didn't take it so well:

MSN