Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cab]

It seems much of Warren Buffet's investment model can be summarized as:

• Pick strong companies with solid fundamentals
• Don't worry about picking lots of companies...a few will do
• Wait until there is "blood in the streets" and then swoop in and buy these companies' stocks at rock bottom prices
• Sit back and be viewed as an Oracle

Reading the forum here over the last few days/weeks where even the Tesla "faithful" (at some level) start to waiver suggests we may be getting close to bullet 3 above for TSLA. I actually don't think we are there quite yet, but anything between $85 and $160 is pretty bloody so we are now in the realm. Hoping I'm right of course!

As to what constitutes being part of the Tesla "faithful", well I think it all comes down to risk tolerance. Like many on here, I came late to the TSLA party late and am WELL upside down on my stock. I am also practically retired so my "faith" is up against the reality of my financial situation and timeline...I want to hold...but can I afford to? Conversely, can I afford NOT to?

Good thing my ACTUAL "faith" is in something a lot bigger than TSLA, ELON, etc.

Thanks All for the continued great info here on this site.

 

[MartinAustin]

Forgetting people banging on about twitter for a minute...
Is it my imagination or is everything (for once) going absolutely brilliantly with the company? A list:

• Cybertruck is definitely still happening, and the equipment is being delivered, production start soon.
• Shanghai running so smoothly they can take the guy in charge and promote him to a wider role.
• S/X plaid finally arriving in Europe.
• Semi now in customers hands, and actual production is live.
• 4680s now in the wild, and ramping.
• Casting machine clearly working, cars with cast components are in the wild.
• FSD beta is in pretty wide release and STILL no major accidents.
• Berlin & Austin both ramping nicely.

This is in wide contrast to the previous year, when we were all worrying if the semi would ever happen, the 4680s looked like they had stalled, and there were endless delays and bureaucracy surrounding berlin! Meanwhile...

• Toyota are still trying to make manual-transmission EVs and hybrids a thing
• Rivian are getting nowhere fast, just abandoned plans to make vans
• Lucid look likely to collapse
• The IRA looks like it will, in practice, be a huge subsidy for Tesla, keeping their margins stratospherically high even as supply ramps.

I cant recall a time, since I first bought stock in 2015, where everything has been going so smoothly. Only downside is some brand damage due to unrelenting attacks on elon in MSM, but that won't stick. The cars are just *too good*.
The only threats to Tesla are BYD, XPeng and NIO. Everyone else is a clown show.

AND... where is TSLA right now on the "buy low, sell high" spectrum?

 

[TrendTrader007]

Time to take a few days break from this board. here are my parting words:
since 1998 i have invested in several companies including google, linked in, face book, VM ware, chipotle etc
missed out on apple- was going to buy in 2010 or so but made a wrong decision and never bought it
bought amazon briefly in 2002 but never held it
Tesla is far superior to all those companies
all these companies come back from periodic sell-offs of 50 to 60% every few years
this downturn in tesla stock price unlikely to last much longer, especially with extremely high volume today. high volume comes typically at end of moves, either up or down. this is no different than 2016, 2019, early 2020 etc
signing off for a while
good luck to all the longs

 

[StealthP3D]

I have a 3/4 ton Toyota 4 wheel drive with beefed up leaf springs and shocks. Hallmark pop up camper with fridge, table,stove bed and heater. This thing can go to a lot of places. If the stock keeps dropping I can't afford that new cyber truck I ordered.

Thank you! I didn't even consider that silver lining to the current share price. Are you forward or backward from roughly 40-45K in the reservation line?

/s

 

[M|S|M MYP]

119M shares traded and it has barley been 4 hours

 

[Chenkers]

Some decent buying volume has been coming in as we move into the afternoon. There still seems to be spoofing/capping going on and bots buying/selling with the macros but there are also some genuinely solid blocks of buying appearing in the volume chart. It will take a lot to overcome those 4 huge drops of short selling earlier, but a partial recovery is possible. It would be nice if Jonas and his peers were all on the phone urging institutions to buy since we've alread visited his bear price range in the $150's. A little bit of FOMO wouldn't go astray about now.

If someone could post a screengrab of the intraday Options volume chart, that'd be helpful.

Here you go:

 

[tslagreen]

This board has capitulated.

We are near the bottom guys/girls.

I feel it

I have no money left to invest.

Agreed!

 

[mach-edriver]

Sorry to tell you all that I rage-bought another 90 shares at $162.

Now for sure it's dropping to $140.

Time for DITM calls rage buying? Are we there yet?

Today I violated my vow not to play TSLA till Musk abandons the CEO gig. I sold Jan 13 $150 puts. Premium received, $7.5 per share.

 

[Drax7]

To offset margin pressure as car prices decline, tesla may/should cast both front and back
Structures in all the models in all the factories.

Furthermore the cost benefits of the 4680 and integrating the battery pack as
part of the structure, further improves margins.

These two combined should allow to offset upcoming price declines
necessary to move the increased production.

input commodity costs declines are also beneficial in offsetting lower
car prices allowing margins to remain about the same.

if you draw the typical demand/supply curves on a graph, as the supply
curve shifts to the right, equilibrium is set at higher production and lower
price. if everything else remains the same, expect tesla to lower prices.

However, IRA is about to shift the demand curve to the right, this
will make things interesting and frankly bullish.

And potentially increasing margins.

 

[WADan]

Agreed!

Bought 100 chairs at $160. I put in a BUY limit at $165 yesterday, but it didn’t hit!
Still have some left in my ROTH, just averaging in some at a time!

 

[lafrisbee]

CPI Discussion?

 

[Singuy]

If someone could post a screengrab of the intraday Options volume chart, that'd be helpful. Over 110M shares of TSLA traded by half-time today. I highly doubt there's that much liquidity in TSLA stock, and that the majority of this volume is naked short selling from Options maker makers as a reflex to high Put options volume.

Link to TSLA Options charts: TSLA Open Interest, Volume and Max Pain

The midday Options volume chart is our only insight into this looming issue (which some of you may have heard of before). Note that Options aren't traded in the Pre-market, but as soon as the Main session began, the push was on:

View attachment 884496

So why are naked short sellers or any short sellers so interested in Tsla, a cash flow positive S&P 500 stock when something like Lucid had enough cash left on yhe balance sheet to last them only 3 more quarters? Makes no sense to play with fire with Tesla.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Bought 100 chairs at $160. I put in a BUY limit at $165 yesterday, but it didn’t hit!
Still have some left in my ROTH, just averaging in some at a time!

This is how you do it. Best of luck!

 

[SOULPEDL]

So why are naked short sellers or any short sellers so interested in Tsla, a cash flow positive S&P 500 stock when something like Lucid had enough cash left on yhe balance sheet to last them only 3 more quarters? Makes no sense to play with fire with Tesla.

 

[Drax7]

It seems much of Warren Buffet's investment model can be summarized as:

• Pick strong companies with solid fundamentals
• Don't worry about picking lots of companies...a few will do
• Wait until there is "blood in the streets" and then swoop in and buy these companies' stocks at rock bottom prices
• Sit back and be viewed as an Oracle

Reading the forum here over the last few days/weeks where even the Tesla "faithful" (at some level) start to waiver suggests we may be getting close to bullet 3 above for TSLA. I actually don't think we are there quite yet, but anything between $85 and $160 is pretty bloody so we are now in the realm. Hoping I'm right of course!

As to what constitutes being part of the Tesla "faithful", well I think it all comes down to risk tolerance. Like many on here, I came late to the TSLA party late and am WELL upside down on my stock. I am also practically retired so my "faith" is up against the reality of my financial situation and timeline...I want to hold...but can I afford to? Conversely, can I afford NOT to?

Good thing my ACTUAL "faith" is in something a lot bigger than TSLA, ELON, etc.

Thanks All for the continued great info here on this site.

Buffett from what I have read mentions 4 points.
1. do I understand the business.
2. do they have a sustainable competitive advantage.
3. do I trust the management.
4. is the valuation right.

these are imprinted in my brain going back
to the 90s. I would include products
or services that have wide mass apeal.

 

[elasalle]

160 we love you

 

[jerry33]

So why are naked short sellers or any short sellers so interested in Tsla, a cash flow positive S&P 500 stock when something like Lucid had enough cash left on yhe balance sheet to last them only 3 more quarters? Makes no sense to play with fire with Tesla.

Because short sellers are basically gamblers and not investors. Once they have a hot run, they keep at it. A few pull out in time but for most the odds will catch up with them and they will lose big time.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Buffett from what I have read mentions 4 points.
1. do I understand the business.
2. do they have a sustainable competitive advantage.
3. do I trust the management.
4. is the valuation right.

these are imprinted in my brain going back
to the 90s. I would include products
or services that have wide mass apeal.

1. do I understand the business.
2. do they have a sustainable competitive advantage.
3. do I trust the management.
4. is the valuation right.

I guess 3/4 aint bad for him

 

[unk45]

What are you curious about? I don't use it for 3000 mile trips. I live in South Florida. There are no pleasant road trips down here.

My Tesla lives a few blocks away from you. It seems to enjoy US-23 and the long trip to get to really nice roads along the Blue Ridge Parkway. It's true the Gables has no nice driving roads but delightful tree lined streets for wandering.

 

[EverettRuess]

Thank you! I didn't even consider that silver lining to the current share price. Are you forward or backward from roughly 40-45K in the reservation line?

/s

I have no idea.