Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ElectricIAC]

Hope no one was hurt, maybe stop trying to pull into the superchargers the wrong way too fast

This picture makes a case for pull through chargers.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Part of this is correct but there are several crucial errors;
1. Residual values typically are set at levels established in Automotive Lease Guide (ALG) the US specialist. They are not public and do not deal with consumers, although they do sell a consumer product with and through Edmunds.
2. Captives do not independently set higher residual values than ALG.
3. When auto sales arms want better lease terms they employ one or more of four types of subsidy (called subvention) to the captive and often to selected third parties:
3.1 Interest rate (I.e. money factor) the most common because it reduces the payment the most;
3.2 credit risk- this is more common in loans than leases but is also used in leases. The sales arm simply agrees to specific credit risks they will accept to reduce finance arm risk. There are several arcane variations to optimize accounting conventions;
3.3 Redisual value guarantee. This takes two major forms, either a direct agreement to assume specified losses at lease termination or direct agreement that the sales arm directly pays the captive for residual value enhancement at lease origination. There are negotiated variants on those.
3.4 Offer direct capitalized cost reduction at lease initiation. This is essentially analogous to a cash rebate on initial sales.

These are not exhaustive nor are these always disclosed. Most can be found in the regular incentive listings in Automotive News, including most, but not all, such arrangements.

This is only a high level description of the US consumer practices. Fleet (commercial and government) are similar in structural elements but are quite often individually organized.
The consumer practices vary by model, area and other factors.

Consumer leases are typically more expensive than are loans, even specialists are often unsure about their own transactions (I have many anecdotes including people who actually worked on F&I product design buying extended warranty when they knew it had a 100% dealer markup).

Tesla is different than competitors not in setting money factors and residual values, but in eliminating all store-level markups and making tradein values at fixed prices. Although Tesla does not usually have unusually aggressive offers, the absence of obscured markups tends to make them more attractive to very well informed buyers/lessees.

Sadly the latest GAAP rules make leasing less attractive for TSLA and all OEM short term earnings thus effect higher lease costs. Therefore tinis generally most attractive to lease only for people who can deduct lease cost from taxes.

Most of this is ONLY US. Specifics vary by State and sometimes county, city or tax districts. Globally tax rules vary, and few generalizations survive change of tax jurisdiction.

I appreciate your forensic response, however I spent 17 years managing a leasing company and learned about auto leasing in Ohio where the 1st commercial lease occurred from the man who started leasing in the USA. I was trying to simplify what is currently going on in the current markets on a more basic level than nerds like us know about. If you would like to dm me please do.The only thing pertinent to this thread is Tesla is way ahead of what is happening and will execute better than OEM'S. They and their finance companies are in deep trouble. Tesla isn't. I won't be that guy to challenge every point you made, even though I could, and will happily do it over dm if you want. I stand behind what I posted. It is fact. Over simplification maybe, but no crucial errors.

Edit: I just saw some other posts, we may some members drinking, dm me tomorrow!

 

[larmor]

Sorry, guys. Got to post something OT to lighten everyone up.


View attachment 885915

Very much like employees from Giga Shanghai. 30 -50 people?


9000 ton Giga Press parts showing up in Giga Texas, according to Joe Tegmeyer:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603821459864014848

PepsiCo says 100 Tesla semis in 2023:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603887712569884673

“Exclusive-#PepsiCo to buy 100 #Tesla Semis in 2023 -exec”
I saw this earlier and the headline looks like Pepsi is making an electric semi. In fact, they are just buying it and Tesla is making it, fit the narrative for the media or anyone really.

 

[nativewolf]

Man there is a lot of negativity here nowadays. This forum is the reason I was I went all in back in 2019, and was able to "semi-retire" at young age at the end of 2020. Forever grateful for that, but at the present time I'm not sure if there is a lot of value here right now. Just bickering.

The stock sales by Elon sting for sure. But I can see it from his perspective pretty clearly. Tesla does not need a certain TSLA price to survive. It is almost meaningless to the success of the company and mission at this point. Elon's new ventures may not survive, so the his decision is very rational in that context. None of this approach should come as a surprise given we are talking about someone who made it clear in the past he felt the stock of his own company was overvalued. It is what it is. If you believe in the business fundamentally long term, none of this matters. If you actively trade or use leverage/margin, that's cool too but this is a reminder that Elon is going to Elon and he dgaf about anything other than whether the company itself is tracking to achieve its mission. That just needs to be a data point in thinking about how to play things.

I think hanging out on places like this forum, or on "TSLA twitter" when things are so negative does little to no good. Criticisms or negative outlooks just naturally feel more convincing when the share price is in the shitter. Not because they are more valid, but because no matter ones conviction (well for most of us) the market pricing something far lower than we think it should be will always allow doubt to creep in. That doubt makes ill informed or even worse, malicious, negative views feel just that bit more convincing. Emotion takes hold and bad decisions are made.

Places like this (while I do greatly appreciate it!) can give the false sense that there is a constant stream of actionable information, so consuming it regularly is helpful. In reality I don't think that's remotely close to true. Ultimately the long term thesis will be validated or rejected slowly over time.

Personally I believe very strongly that:

1. Tesla has a unique approach to their products that is compelling in a completely unmatched way
2. Tesla has a massive talent edge over all of their competition.
3. Tesla has a culture of efficiency and productivity that is unrivaled amongst their competition.
4. EVs are a superior technology for the vast majority of the population, and governments are clearly encouraging their adoption
5. Tesla has the best chance to succeed at a fully functional self driving experience due to the scope of data they have available
6. Tesla is the only company currently able to fully capitalize on the massive economies of scale that can be achieved with this new battery/electric world (e.g. battery learnings applying to cars and stationary grid storage, or high performance sedan electric motors being used to make more compelling Semi trucks)

None of these thesis will be suddenly invalidated tomorrow via some tweet, some post, or some news article. But if not careful times like these can mistakenly make one think all of them are invalid.

I'm not exactly a major contributor here, but I'm taking a step away (from here and Twitter) for this reason. I can feel that doubt creeping in bits here and there. I also de-risked myself a bit to sleep easier (TSLA at $400 definitely encouraged some fun little purchases on margin, after all what's the worst that could happen right?) and focus on the long term points I mentioned above.

In hindsight I believe it was pretty hard to justify TSLA was really a $400/share stock last year, but it's equally difficult to justify it's a $150/share stock now. This too shall pass.

Every employee is getting hammered by the low stock price. The harm is huge, if the compensation plan is to make up for low wages with stock then the stock needs to hold value or appreciate. Mark my words this is ruining some Tesla employees.

 

[thesmokingman]

Every employee is getting hammered by the low stock price. The harm is huge, if the compensation plan is to make up for low wages with stock then the stock needs to hold value or appreciate. Mark my words this is ruining some Tesla employees.

Hows that any different from any stock that's down right now? Wanna talk pissed off, imagine you work for Rivian and you have thousands of worthless shares?

 

[SN_8]

On a much-needed vacay, replies will be very delayed.

Enjoy. But is it really a vacation? What is a "vacation"?

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA After-Hours Quotes​

Data last updated Dec 16, 2022 08:00 PM ET.
This page will resume updating on Dec 19, 2022 04:00 PM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$149.08 -8.59 (-5.45%)
After-Hours Volume	12,550,565
After-Hours High	$160.4 (04:49:55 PM)
After-Hours Low	$144.6071 (05:21:29 PM

Shortzes resumed their monkey business at 5:30 pm after the rebalancing trades were done:

 

[Curt Renz]

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought TSLA for the third straight day.

Today: ARKK 31,018 TSLA shares

 

[Singuy]

Every employee is getting hammered by the low stock price. The harm is huge, if the compensation plan is to make up for low wages with stock then the stock needs to hold value or appreciate. Mark my words this is ruining some Tesla employees.

Unlike us who are here wishing for the stock to go up, these employees are now more fired up because they can actually DO something to make the share price go up.

High share price led a bunch of people quitting which Elon have talked about. Low share price = hustling and bustling.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Man there is a lot of negativity here nowadays. This forum is the reason I was I went all in back in 2019, and was able to "semi-retire" at young age at the end of 2020. Forever grateful for that, but at the present time I'm not sure if there is a lot of value here right now. Just bickering.

The stock sales by Elon sting for sure. But I can see it from his perspective pretty clearly. Tesla does not need a certain TSLA price to survive. It is almost meaningless to the success of the company and mission at this point. Elon's new ventures may not survive, so the his decision is very rational in that context. None of this approach should come as a surprise given we are talking about someone who made it clear in the past he felt the stock of his own company was overvalued. It is what it is. If you believe in the business fundamentally long term, none of this matters. If you actively trade or use leverage/margin, that's cool too but this is a reminder that Elon is going to Elon and he dgaf about anything other than whether the company itself is tracking to achieve its mission. That just needs to be a data point in thinking about how to play things.

I think hanging out on places like this forum, or on "TSLA twitter" when things are so negative does little to no good. Criticisms or negative outlooks just naturally feel more convincing when the share price is in the shitter. Not because they are more valid, but because no matter ones conviction (well for most of us) the market pricing something far lower than we think it should be will always allow doubt to creep in. That doubt makes ill informed or even worse, malicious, negative views feel just that bit more convincing. Emotion takes hold and bad decisions are made.

Places like this (while I do greatly appreciate it!) can give the false sense that there is a constant stream of actionable information, so consuming it regularly is helpful. In reality I don't think that's remotely close to true. Ultimately the long term thesis will be validated or rejected slowly over time.

Personally I believe very strongly that:

1. Tesla has a unique approach to their products that is compelling in a completely unmatched way
2. Tesla has a massive talent edge over all of their competition.
3. Tesla has a culture of efficiency and productivity that is unrivaled amongst their competition.
4. EVs are a superior technology for the vast majority of the population, and governments are clearly encouraging their adoption
5. Tesla has the best chance to succeed at a fully functional self driving experience due to the scope of data they have available
6. Tesla is the only company currently able to fully capitalize on the massive economies of scale that can be achieved with this new battery/electric world (e.g. battery learnings applying to cars and stationary grid storage, or high performance sedan electric motors being used to make more compelling Semi trucks)

None of these thesis will be suddenly invalidated tomorrow via some tweet, some post, or some news article. But if not careful times like these can mistakenly make one think all of them are invalid.

I'm not exactly a major contributor here, but I'm taking a step away (from here and Twitter) for this reason. I can feel that doubt creeping in bits here and there. I also de-risked myself a bit to sleep easier (TSLA at $400 definitely encouraged some fun little purchases on margin, after all what's the worst that could happen right?) and focus on the long term points I mentioned above.

In hindsight I believe it was pretty hard to justify TSLA was really a $400/share stock last year, but it's equally difficult to justify it's a $150/share stock now. This too shall pass.

Great points. Forums like this are invaluable source of information and can really help but inversely can sometimes hurt those who are easily swayed by opinions of others. Best to do own thinking. I do like hanging out here since it reduces my sense of isolation as a Tesla investor. I also like putting down my own ideas about Tesla stock price down because it helps me strategize better. Overall the quality of this forum is very good and even better when I block certain individuals who scare the living lights out of me on a bad day. And I don’t scare easy. I like it here

 

[dl003]

Unlike us who are here wishing for the stock to go up, these employees are now more fired up because they can actually DO something to make the share price go up.

High share price led a bunch of people quitting which Elon have talked about. Low share price = hustling and bustling.

With all due respect, they cant. Its all the Fed, remember?

 

[bkp_duke]

Yeah, it’s been a perfect week.
View attachment 885914

Silver lining - UPGRADE TIME!!!

 

[thesmokingman]

Yeah, it’s been a perfect week.
View attachment 885914

You now have to make the de rigueur crash thread asking if its totaled right?

 

[betstarship]

Yeah, it’s been a perfect week.
View attachment 885914

Thats rough, hope everyone is ok

 

[StealthP3D]

Every time you post I'm excited to see what words you've used that I've never seen before. I could google these fine specimens, but I'd prefer to maintain the mystery they are to me now. Its just more fun that way - plus now I can assign my own meaning to them and make your post more entertaining for myself. (well, perhaps, because I can't be sure). Might make me seem like a child, but oh well

Even more noteworthy than the remarkably obscure and sometimes archaic vocabulary that Audie often exhibits are his regular demonstrations of profoundly mysterious and amazingly constructed sentence structures that leave mere mortals and persons of below average educational achievements such as myself utterly baffled. Don't get me wrong, I'm fairly confident that his amazing linguistic constructs are probably 100% grammatically correct and proper although, and I'm not too proud to admit this, it's only a slightly educated guess because my lowly intellect has too little experience with sentences that sound like that to tell with any certainty whether rules even exist to effectively judge the validity of such interesting constructs. All I know is they regularly confound woefully under-educated people like me.

Obscure vocabulary can be easily referenced with an on-line tool, if one is so inclined, but it is the unfamiliar sentence structures that tangle with the neurons in my feeble brain and make me wish I could have afforded a better education than that available at the unsophisticated state university. Publicly funded universities cannot afford very many sophisticated professors, which means I was presented with very little exposure to ideas presented in such high fashion. It's time for a private language tutor, but the first two I interviewed were not advanced enough to decipher Audie's sentences any better than myself and the third potential tutor displayed a wide-eyed expression and fled without his hat shortly after I presented him with three sample sentences that I found particularly vexing. At least it's a very nice hat made of wool and makes me look a little more sophisticated than a regular old baseball cap! It's warm enough for winter too, but I think it might need some furry ear flaps.

/s

 

[bkp_duke]

Every employee is getting hammered by the low stock price. The harm is huge, if the compensation plan is to make up for low wages with stock then the stock needs to hold value or appreciate. Mark my words this is ruining some Tesla employees.

This year Tesla moved to a stock OR cash compensation plan. I expect a lot of employees that are focused more short term will be choosing the later.

 

[nativewolf]

With all due respect, they cant. Its all the Fed, remember?

Ok that is funny. Like a line worker with 10’shares is going to hustle and bustle so they it can fall as the ceo dumps shares? You think a crushed share price attracts workers? By workers I mean line employees. Not skilled engineers with 1000 shares that turned into 4000 worth 1.25mln. I could see them retiring early. A line employee that needed the extra 3k for a car down payment . That is the one that hurts.

 

[verystandard]

Ah *sugar* more downside to the stocks next week

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603935364095188993

 

[wipster]

I'm guessing that means a real "divorced from work for at least two weeks" vacation. Not one that is mostly work with a couple of days for sightseeing.

Very very very hard to do nowadays, with all the new cell phone coverage (at least in the states). And when the new features become available in about a year, it will virtually become impossible unless you turn off your phone.

The bad part about that is I use my phone for a number of things other than work (and "work" stopped about 12 years ago), such as music, books, etc. Guess you write some creative "on vacation" rules!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wanna talk ... Rivian ... shares?

Glad ... you ... asked!

Here's the RIVN NASDAQ 50-day Chart. Note well the extreme volume today during S&P 500 rebalancing.

Lotza Mozza...

Cheers!