Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't think there will be a demand issue with megapacks ramping, but rather supply side issues due to the recession worsening for at least the first half of 2023, maybe longer.

I know what the ideal predictions are, I'm simply not expecting anything in 2023 to proceed "ideally".

But again, not sure why the recession has any impact on Megapack. A recession doesn’t affect supply. If anything, it makes the Megapack cheaper to produce and parts/supplies become easier to obtain because demand from other companies for those parts/supplies is reduced and as I mentioned, if there’s softness in Tesla’s auto side, more battery supply for Megapack

 

[Cosmacelf]

There are subsidies from every step along the way.

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• 10% of the cost of battery electrode active materials
• $35/kWh of battery cell capacity
• $10/kW of battery module capacity (or, for a battery module that does not use battery cells, $45/kWh)
• 10% of the cost of producing a battery mineral.

Plus of course the 30% consumer credit that will increase Tesla's pricing power on new orders.

Which ones Tesla or CATL or LG Chem or Panasonic, etc. will receive are unknown to me, though some have claimed Tesla will get them all.

It depends on where each of those components are manufactured. Megapack and modules made in the US, so Tesla gets that subsidy. Battery cells if made by CATL are not (yet) made in a free trade country, so no subsidy. But there are plenty of factories being built/coming online in the US that could supply Tesla (including from Tesla itself).

 

[Dutchie]

Effective writing always needs to consider the goal of the communication and the audience. In general writing should be clear and concise, using the simplest combination of the fewest words and sentences necessary to get the job done.

Here the purpose is productive, efficient discussions of Tesla, TSLA and the Investment World.

The audience is a forum with diverse international participants, many of whom use English as a non-native language. English is of course the primary language of Tesla the corporation and the primary shared international language of business, so we use it as a tool. Just as memes, slang and pop culture references can be exclusionary and confusing, frequently using arcane words that aren’t in the top few thousand most common words in modern English vocabulary and convoluted grammatical structures is generally overkill for this forum and tends to be exclusionary and confusing to members, whether current or prospective lurkers, who may have good input but are relatively weak in their knowledge of English. I would like to hear more perspective from Italians and Koreans and Brazilians and not primarily those of us in the UK and former British colonies.

The full breadth and complexity of English prose can be wonderful for literature or in academic settings within English-speaking institutions, but is quite unnecessary for investment discussions where the best dictionary lookup is no dictionary lookup and where ideally a sentence only needs to be read once to be comprehended. It already takes enough time to keep up with this thread.

This is OT but I personally don’t agree. I live in an English speaking country though English is not my native tongue. I like to learn. I like to get better in English. Vocabulary in written form tends to use more complex words than in spoken form. If I see a word that I don’t know, I look it up. I am happy to have learned something new, whether it is here on a forum or in a more professional setting. It doesn’t matter to me.

 

[carterm2]

47% dark pool short interest?


This is getting weird... the tweet doesn't show up here correctly either... posting a screen shot instead. link below.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605521063412211713

 

[NicoV]

Don’t forget there’s some serious demand for battery storage in Europe. This year Europe installed more than 40 GW of solar:

New report reveals EU solar power soars by almost 50% in 2022 - SolarPower Europe

www.solarpowereurope.org

In the Netherlands we have had multiple days this spring where solar and wind were producing more than 100% of our energy need, creating grid congestion.

Tesla has only just begun building grid storage in Europe with one in the UK and one in Belgium.

It’s not the first time Tesla installs grid storage in Belgium:
- in 1018 140 powerpacks: Tesla-PowerPacks in België | AutoGids
- in 2021 1 megapack: ENGIE installeert eerste Tesla Megapack in België bij Luik Natie
and 3 weeks ago 100MWh megapacks in Lessen
Also planned:
A 100MWh battery in Ruien made by Huawei before the end of the year: Nico Braam op LinkedIn: Placement of the first battery units at RES
Another 100MWh in Balen, unclear it is made by Tesla: Bouw van ‘megabatterij’ op terreinen van Nyrstar gestart: “Hiermee stabiliseren we het Belgische net en drukken we ook de energieprijs”
The increase in capacity is promising.

 

[The Accountant]

That interest expense is assuming Elon didn't use the recent stock sales to pay off any of those high interest debts correct?

yes, correct.

 

[The Accountant]

@The Accountant are you following this account ?

https://twitter.com/zerosumgame33?s=21&t=SBOCQDK8HcdmVR4ft1lWlA

Good thread on mega pack ramp

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605375527099191296

A line from one of his tweets.
5/...By year-end 2023, TSLA will have deployed ~64 GwH of capacity, equivalent to an ~8x increase in GwH deployments over the TTM period ending 3Q’22, with upwards of $16B in gross profit contribution generated by TSLA existing and unconstrained 16K current MP backlog at Lathrop.

Yes, thanks.
There seems to be much more interest from Retail Investors on the Tesla Energy potential. From Wall Street Analysts? Crickets.

 

[MABMAB]

Someone posted a snippet of this but the whole interview is priceless and indirectly positive for much of what Muskheads concern themselves with.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Macro stuff:

What does this mean? It unfortunately means that labor supply will remain tight for a while. Note that this imbalance started before Covid. Covid has just amplified it, meaning that until the reasons that labor supply were tight BEFORE Covid go away, labor will remain tight. Baby boomers retiring and US manufacturing on-shoring are two long term trends that will continue keep labor supply tight.

But recessions are very unlikely if job demand outpaces job supply. I mean, that's almost the definition of not-a-recession. So why are people expecting a recession? Because they believe the Fed will/want to push the US economy into one with rising interest rates. Mind reading the Fed is always difficult, but IF they recognize structural reasons why low unemployment is here to stay for a while, then it is possible they will ease off the rate rises before inflation looks to be heading to 2% (and if it ever got there that would almost certainly be a recession in this environment). I suspect/hope the Fed will be satisfied with 4% inflation for a while. And that may very well mean no recession...

 

[Captkerosene]

Is it true that we are producing 25 Megapacks a day and that they are 2MM each? Or was that just a hoax?

 

[thesmokingman]

47% dark pool short interest?


This is getting weird... the tweet doesn't show up here correctly either... posting a screen shot instead. link below.


View attachment 887565

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605521063412211713

It's gonna be another banner year for Ken Griffen.

 

[kbM3]

“… then there is more incentive to execute ASAP which also means selling roughly half to cover exercise and taxes. That is not favorable to TSLA (0.5% dilution a year).

Why would Elon selling shares cause 0.5% dilution?

My understanding is that the diluted GAAP earnings account for those shares as soon as Elon meets the criteria for the options. The only thing that would occur from Elon selling shares is a reduction in the float, not dilution.

 

[ZeApelido]

I'm not even going to link to Adam Jonas' new note that says TSLA is a buy, but give an estimated 2023 EPS of $4.

@Gigapress and @StarFoxisDown! heads might explode.

 

[Captkerosene]

Would be awesome if Elon did the MasterPlan part 3 and laid out how Tesla is scaling

Investor Day 2023. A 30 minute intro by Elon. Then Zach for an hour with financial projections. Then AI, Shanghai, Austin, Berlin, Semi, FSD, Supercharger, Bot, solar and energy leads each give a 10 minute presentation on their progress and ramifications for future profits. Then a one hour Q&A with Elon and Zach.

If we want the share price higher we need to change the narrative from woke politics to sales, profits and product roadmap.

 

[raffiniert]

47% dark pool short interest?


This is getting weird... the tweet doesn't show up here correctly either... posting a screen shot instead. link below.


View attachment 887565

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605521063412211713

So it was my friend Marco?

 

[2daMoon]

47% dark pool short interest?


This is getting weird... the tweet doesn't show up here correctly either... posting a screen shot instead. link below.


View attachment 887565

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605521063412211713

That is impossible!

Everybody(tm) knows that Elon's lips and fingers moving, as well as his buying/selling habits, are to blame.

Nobody(tm) is going to believe that normal (dark) market forces are being used to affect volatile stocks' prices in order to financially capitalize upon the time-honored opportunity that FED rate hikes always present.

Nonsense I tellz ya, nonsense!

/S

 

[thesmokingman]

That is impossible!

Everybody(tm) knows that Elon's lips and fingers moving, as well as his buying/selling habits, are to blame.

Nobody(tm) is going to believe that normal (dark) market forces are being used to affect volatile stocks' prices in order to financially capitalize upon the time-honored opportunity that FED rate hikes always present.

Nonsense I tellz ya, nonsense!

/S

Unpossible!

It's like ppl conveniently forget that someone's making a ton of cash crashing a stonk.

Like *sugar* man...

Citadel Securities Trading Revenue Hits Record $4.2 Billion

Ken Griffin’s Citadel Securities raked in a record $4.2 billion in first-half net trading revenue, capitalizing on this year’s surge in market volatility and stepping up its competition with the biggest banks.

www.bloomberg.com

Citadel’s Flagship Hedge Fund Is Up 30% This Year. Why Is Ken Griffin's Fund Doing Better Than Most? - Meme Stock Maven

Ken Griffin's hedge fund is up over 30% this year, even while the broader market has sunk double digits over the same timeframe.

www.thestreet.com

 

[tslalala]

There is zero need for Tesla to pre-announce any new product. The company doesn't desperately need deposits as revenue, and its not like they don't already have a big pipeline of vehicles for the two ramping factories. We are barely even discussing a Texas/Berlin made model 3 yet, but we know it will come.

My guess is that the gap from announcement to delivery of the next vehicle, whether its a smaller car, or a van (or even a bus?*) might be shorter than we are used to.

Totally agree with you. When Tesla has pre-announced, the clock starts ticking and Tesla is held to some timeline (whether self-declared or media/analyst imposed). Tesla should follow Apple's lead: don't announce any new products until just before general product availability. This also helps to prevent the "osborne effect" so there's no threat of canibalizing Model 3 sales until Model 2 is announced/available.

 

[StealthP3D]

An interesting question that comes to mind is: How long will it be before it's more profitable to put an LFP cell into a Megapack rather than a car?

The likely intent of the IRA's focus on stationary storage is to suck up the battery supply into energy storage and slow down the EV transition and help Ford and GM survive through it. However, the unintended consequence will be to make Tesla stronger since they are into both energy and EV's.

 

[capster]

Looks like all of auto is in the same boat today. I guess that makes me feel better.

Didn’t someone say upthread we were down cause all of tech was down? Are we back to being an auto company?

I can’t keep up.