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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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nobody knows. those who predict share prices correctly are simply lucky. yesterday $130s could be the bottom or TSLA could go down to $100 or $75. makes zero difference to long term outlook which is extremely bright. short term speculation is a very dangerous game and has wiped off fortunes of many. those who believe in long term potential of tesla will do just fine.
It makes a difference if one wants to score a 20bagger. Last time, in late March 2020 you🙏, and a few esteemed posters 🙏suggested a bottom, going in DITM calls. That time it worked beautifully. I am not sure whether straight stock purchase would be a better bet this time....
 
I am seeing a lot of sentiment on Twitter where people are saying Elon and TWTR is the cause of TSLA stock price decline. Here are some interesting YTDs:
AAPL = -25%
GOOGL = -38%
AMZN = -49%
NFLX = -50%
TSLA = -65%

I know TSLA is down more, probably the end of year tax loss harvesting many people are doing and then re-buying it (I know I did), but just some food for though. Cheers!
 
Why would Elon selling shares cause 0.5% dilution?

My understanding is that the diluted GAAP earnings account for those shares as soon as Elon meets the criteria for the options. The only thing that would occur from Elon selling shares is a reduction in the float, not dilution.
Good point, dilution (in EPS sense) wasn't the best term. I was meaning the effect produced by Elon executing and selling the new shares, which increases the available float (among other recently discussed side effects).
 
I'm not even going to link to Adam Jonas' new note that says TSLA is a buy, but give an estimated 2023 EPS of $4.

@Gigapress and @StarFoxisDown! heads might explode.
Oh I'm aware. It's been a constant theme for analyst, even though they've brought down PT's a ton over the past few weeks, to have ridiculous EPS estimates for 2023. As in a likely material earnings decline from 2022 which I think will be $4.30-4.40. It's just silly at this point.

But at least Adam has some balls here and it's just tucking tale and giving some low ball PT just because everyone else is. Lost a ton of respect for the Colin analyst.
 
Another hard freeze heading to south central/southeast Texas Friday and Saturday. Should be interesting to see how our anemic grid performs.

I have not seen many updates on progress with the Tesla MegaPack project near Arlington. Even though it is supposed to max out at only 100 MW/200 MWh, it will be interesting to see if it gets called into duty.

edit. Could affect GigaTexas in Austin.
 
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This is another important line from that thread:

Did you get that? 38% margins for Tesla Energy next year.

Tesla Energy is the reason I got into the stock in the first place. Tesla Energy eventually will be bigger than automotive and it is a much simpler business with much higher margins. The way I see it, the automotive business has been funding Tesla Energy's R&D until they can sort out the battery supply issues. That day is coming soon.
and it is also freakishly capital-intensive. Tesla is not running out of ideas where to put capital to work, so too early for a dividend or a buy-back.
I suspect that the engineering COE will be frustrated with all the bottlenecks that stop them, and will get into all aspects of supply chain, similarly how Ford did when it was evolving. Expect some mining, some bolt-on acquisition of strategically important ground-breaking tech...
 
The company doesn't desperately need deposits as revenue

Model 3 deposits were never counted as revenue; they were needed to demonstrate to nervous suppliers that Tesla did indeed have the order book to justify the large orders it was placing with those suppliers (requiring large capital investments in production capacity). Panasonic was another shy dance partner in those early years (no more!)

Others suppliers were replaced eventually and those component taken "in-hours" (ie: Tesla makes its own seats, unheard of for an major Auto manufacturor). More recently, Tesla hasn't even been taking pre-orders (ie: Semi, which you can no longer order on Tesla's website).

I expect the compact car will follow this new practice: there will be no need to drum up orders, and Tesla needs to be slightly coy to avoid 'Osborning' the Model 3 (Project Highland is timed to help on that front).

Cheers!
 
IMHO the vast majority of 'arcane in English' words 'that dude' uses are of latin origin, although some of them came to English from various indo-European tongues. How is it that using language properly is somehow inhibiting civil discourse? He's short on memes, to be sure but memes "meme \MEEM\ noun. 1 : an idea, behavior, style, or usage that spreads from person to person within a culture"
By definition those are unintelligible to the uninitiated and often misleading to those who think they understand.
As for "...stupid people are enticed by complex things" is not that inherently illogical?
Your last line also reflects a certain lack of context. Flemish is an amalgamation of dialects with lexicographical differences that are sometimes vast (look it up). English is quite the same. A native English speaker from, say, West Virginia mountains will probably not understand anything at all with a native English speaker from, say, Chennai while neither one will understand much from a typical native English speaking Cockney.

The point is simple. Dumbing down language and using memes and other colloquial forms is intended linguistically to enhance us-vs-them.

I hope, perhaps vainly, that we all try to communicate with each other here using standard English language words that facilitate use of standard translation tools and dictionaries.
We are all from quite different backgrounds linguistically.
The topic of your ire is a person who uses words that are contained in dictionaries and can easily be understood by nearly anyone with a simple search. No so with many of the colloquial forms, many of which mean entirely different things depending on cultural context. In this forum cultural context is not commonly held.

If I emphasize this excessively it is perhaps because much of the posts here are unintelligible to me and are not easily deciphered with a simple search. Mostly I think my English may be adequate, albeit with typo -laden posts.

So if Audie should 'cool it' with correct word usage how about other people 'cool it' with memes typically used by people with possibly limited vocabularies in the English language.
I‘ve picked up quite a few pop culture references and seen memes here that I wouldn’t have otherwise and that has been helpful. They are both a form of shorthand that can improve communication, though they can be used ineffectively—just like writing.

Memes in particular are here to stay and are a rapidly evolving adjunct to the written word.

I also don’t believe allusions to historical events or literature or mentions of aphorisms should be forgone simply because some will not get them. Search is easy and effective now.

I don’t lament that I don’t get everything, I just scroll on by.

Yes, writers should be clear and concise. But that is a starting point. It spices things up when a writer can be lyrical and evocative as well, so long as they remain clear and concise. Granted, that is not an easy trick.

Writing improves with practice and feedback. I have learned here too, even at this point in my life, in particular when some of my comments that were intended to be humorous misfired.

In my experience, there are also many non-native English speakers whose English is better than many native speakers.
 
Model 3 deposits were never counted as revenue; they were needed to demonstrate to nervous suppliers that Tesla did indeed have the order book to justify the large orders it was placing with those suppliers (requiring large capital investments in production capacity). Panasonic was another shy dance partner in those early years (no more!)

Others suppliers were replaced eventually and those component taken "in-hours" (ie: Tesla makes its own seats, unheard of for an major Auto manufacturor). More recently, Tesla hasn't even been taking pre-orders (ie: Semi, which you can no longer order on Tesla's website).

I expect the compact car will follow this new practice: there will be no need to drum up orders, and Tesla needs to be slightly coy to avoid 'Osborning' the Model 3 (Project Highland is timed to help on that front).

Cheers!
While I agree that they shouldn't pre-announce/ take pre-orders for the next Model, I'm not so sure I'd call it the "Osborne Effect". Next model should be less capable than the Model Y, not more appealing. If it competes too closely with the Model 3/ Model Y, Tesla is going to have a huge problem with overcapacity on those lines as their customers flock to the cheaper platform.

There needs to be a big enough gap between the new car and the Model 3/Y for Tesla to continue producing their current lines at capacity and sell them at a profit.


PS: Apologies for the slightly pedantic correction.
 
While I agree that they shouldn't pre-announce/ take pre-orders for the next Model, I'm not so sure I'd call it the "Osborne Effect". Next model should be less capable than the Model Y, not more appealing.

What folks need to consider is that the single competitor's car line who's sales are being most disrupted by the Tesla Model 3 SR+ is the Toyota Camry and Corrolla.

This is what we call the "Tesla stretch", where folks are spending 10's of thousands more on the initial purchase of a new car than they would otherwise, simply to get the benefits of the economics of operating a Model 3.

When the compact car comes in at the same price as a Corolla, Toyoda effed will be... ;)

Cheers!