Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

if demand was not and is not a current issue why did Tesla need to have large incentives in December

Because U.S. customers were waiting for the IRA subsidy. Tesla matched it so they wouldn't have that incentive to delay delivery.

What are you looking for? You won't find it by asking questions to confirm you biases.

GL.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Agreed on everything but LFP for Powerwall. I think it was only a year ago or so that someone suggested the Powerwall would be going LFP since stationary storage was not weight sensitive application. But Elon didn't hesitate to say that it actually was weight sensitive to due to the weight a typical wall is built to handle, installation difficulties (larger install crew) and the need for sufficient kWh leans towards the higher energy density battery chemistries. It's a premium product and energy density does matter.

They could change their mind, but that is the latest info I've heard.

You missed this from last January: Elon said Tesla intends to switch all TE products to LFP

Tesla Hints At Transition Of All Energy Storage To LFP Batteries | Teslarati (Jan 27, 2022)

 

[petit_bateau]

I’ve been looking at the residential storage options available to me and there’s 1 big difference in specs of the Powerwall versus the Chinese competition: The Powerwall can be installed outside, while all of the Chinese competition are cheap plastic boxes that need to be installed inside.
I’d prefer outside installation because:
- I don’t really have the space in my home
- I’d rather not hear the inverter noise 24/7

Still waiting for the rumoured Powerwall with integrated 3-phase inverter.
Even if it would be available there’s still the question if there is any economic reason (in my specific case) to install it.

IP 66, three phase, Chinese, Huawei

Huawei 3Ph Inverter + (5kWh to 15kWh) Battery Storage Bundle

The modular Huawei LUNA2000 system is a high voltage battery solution which is compatible with a wide range of self-consumption inverters including single and three-phase inverters.

www.alternergy.co.uk

You know without VPP, I don't even know why people get battery back ups unless you lose power constantly which I seriously doubt most people are. However with VPP and autobidder, you can get paid for having a powerwall which offset the cost over years. How are the competitors doing in this aspect?

As I have said before .... Tesla is not alone in offering VPPs.

There are a number of VPP software packages out there that the utilities can use. The most public of these is Octopus's Kraken. That will interface with many residential/domestic inverter-battery storage systems including Tesla, GivEnergy, Powervault, etc and utility-scale. The utility software platform is in use with quite a lot of utilities around the (EON, SSE, GoodEnergy, Elia, NorskHydro, EDF, etc) and several countries (UK, Belgium, Japan, Canada, etc) around the world. I'm higlighting Kraken because some info is public - most utilities are quite coy about their software platforms, but these days many have similar functionality. (I have no investment whatsoever in Kraken/Octopus.)

Cut your energy bills with GivEnergy and Octopus | GivEnergy

Say goodbye to sky-high energy costs. By combining GivEnergy home batteries and Octopus smart tariffs, you can slash your energy spend.

www.givenergy.co.uk

Works with Octopus

Our “Works with Octopus” program recognises and supports all the different products and services connected to us and helps promote all the hard work to make these available to consumers.

octopus.energy

Flexing Domestic Assets

The challenges, improvements and what's nextThe UK energy system is going through the largest change in decades, in a bid to transition to a zero-carbon world. Every day, more and more renewable generation is coming onto the system to replace fossil fuel generators and as a result is changing...

www.krakenflex.com

Octopus Energy Group’s Kraken will control heat pumps and other energy tech to automatically reduce bills for Belgian households

octopus.energy

Hydro REIN and KrakenFlex partner on energy flexibility rollout

octopus.energy

Octopus Energy Group boosts Kraken’s capabilities with innovative ‘EnTech’ software

octopus.energy

 

[petit_bateau]

What is the advantege of LFP over NMC in stationary storage? Price?

LFP is better:
- cheaper
- longer lifetime
- less damage
- more availabiity

 

[Artful Dodger]

Or am I missing something in how this shell game works?

How this game works is your broker takes you money, then says you own shares. You really don't; they do (c.f. "Shareholder of Record" - them vs "Beneficial Shareholder" - you).

If too many clients want shares all at once, they restrict retail accounts to "Sell Only" status, and disallow them from buying more. This is how they broke up the Gamestop squeeze in Jan 2020. Then Congress held public hearings to point the finger at social media inflencers. Then in due course, the SEC pressed charges against a handful of prominent personalities.

Investment Banks/Brokers are the final authority. No one checks their books, or even talks about rule breaking in public. Criminal charges, if any, take 7+ years to work through the SEC, and may result in token fines but zero prohibitions preventing further rule breaking.

In their world, Money is King, and you are a pawn. How to win at this game?

• Don't use margin (play against the Market, instead of the against the House)
• Avoid derivatives (play their game at your risk, and only for a specific time/purpose)
• Play the Long Game (expect shenanigans, use the power of compound gaines to win)

GLTA!

 

[jw934]

Out of the first 18 news items in Yahoo Finance for Tesla yesterday, a remarkable 11 were positive whereas typically there might be 2 or 3 if lucky.

This could have helped TSLA to rise 5% yesterday.

News dated today are not out yet at 5AM but I hope this trend continues. I just don’t know if MSM is working in creating a fake head for the shorts to sell more before MSM turns around to pound the stock down more.

Source Yahoo

Spoiler

 

[Max Plaid]

So you're using margin? Shares, or derivatives?

He's referring to a privatisation at these SP levels, where overseas investors would be excluded and forced to sell

Fortunately, I think the probability of that is very low

 

[MC3OZ]

He's referring to a privatisation at these SP levels, where overseas investors would be excluded and forced to sell

Fortunately, I think the probability of that is very low

Elon tried privitisation once before that didn't go well, and retail shareholders asking him not to do it was one reason given for abandoning the idea.

Apart from a desire to give a buyer a great deal, there is no reason to do it.

A hostile take over at these prices, just as unlikely for different reasons.

Gordon Johnson becoming Tesla CEO .... slighly more likely.

 

[Unpilot]

I stay out of the debate over energy storage, as I am not conversant about it.

But I wonder how many of the companies who got the chips to make their storage products also made over a million cars?

 

[Artful Dodger]

He's referring to a privatisation at these SP levels, where overseas investors would be excluded and forced to sell

Yes, he explained futher up thread. This would be a repeat of the situation TSLA shareholders faced in Aug 2018.

Fortunately, I think the probability of that is very low

Agreed, low probability. Again, Elon stated just this past August that he thinks Tesla as a public company is the proper place to develop AGI (and the transformative power it could wield in the world economy).

The original discussion was sparked by this 2018 article (link below). Henry Ford bought controlling interest of Ford Motor Co. in 1919 (mostly with debt), then took it private. Subsequently Ford Motor did not return to trading in the public market until its 1956 IPO on the NYSE.

Is past prologue for Elon Musk? Why passionate executives matter | Autoblog (Aug 10, 2018)​

Again, no need for alarm. A similar event now is low probability, but such things have happened in the past.

Cheers!

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Maybe some upside on the dry electrode front, I’m not knowledgeable enough to ascertain.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610916962259075084

 

[NicoV]

I stay out of the debate over energy storage, as I am not conversant about it.

But I wonder how many of the companies who got the chips to make their storage products also made over a million cars?

AFAIK, Tesla never said which chips were problematic.
It could be RAM, Flash, Inverters, Wifi, 4G, SOCs, etc. 1 million chips of these is peanuts compared to what the consumer electronics and computer industry need, so Tesla may just have been a low priority customer for the chip producers.

 

[NicoV]

It seems that Belgium has reached it’s maximum number of cars/1000 inhabitants and car ownership is now trending down:
Groei Belgisch wagenpark loopt op laatste benen (see first graph).
The second graph shows the evolution of yearly new car sales, where Belgium is now at a 30+ year low.
The experts in the article think its because of demographic evolution, and maybe a bit because of the EV switch.
Personally I think it’s just an example of the predicted valley of death for ICE cars:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387621952508948493

Most of the people I know just keep driving the car they have until they are more convinced that they can buy the EV they need. Some of them because they think EV’s are a transition technology on the way to hydrogen.

 

[lascavarian]

If I have it correctly, Max Pain for 1/5 is 114. It may be that the US markets open above MP.

Premarket volume seems more moderate than seen recently. Is a new pattern forming or is this just caution preceding FED news. YMMV

 

[Paracelsus]

SolarEdge would be the biggest brand. They are the people who used to supply the inverter Tesla used to use in the original Powerwalls. You can get them in USA.

(Disclosure : I used to know the founders professionally, one sadly now deceased. We had discussed collaborating on a product design of ours/mine. They couldn't meet the specs we needed. So there is a possibility I have bias though I think not.)

Ahhh yes, SolarEdge - the company that made the inverters for my brother’s 20kw ground mount system in the Midwest. The only thing positive about that system at the moment is that he used 2 arrays, 2 inverters, and 2 batteries, because when only one of the SolarEdge inverters has an issue at least he still has 50% production. But sometimes both halves are down because both inverters are having issues. The technicians seemed pleased that it was the more recent version of inverters because the previous generation was very problematic and replacements were not easily available according to them. But the newer version my brother has are failing routinely too, and this issue has gone on for 7 months now without full inverter replacement yet. Our Tesla solar project manager is aware of similar SolarEdge issues across the Southeast US and seemed fairly certain months ago that things would proceed just as troublesome and unresolved as the have……and all the while SolarEdge is continuing to provide inverters for new installs while customers with problematic systems can’t seem to get replacements from what we have observed and been told. We were advised to ask the install company for a trade in credit of the LG batteries and SolarEdge inverters towards Powerwalls - which are now readily available in my brothers vicinity, but we have received no response. And all the while the warranty and the efficiency of production of the solar panels continues to grow smaller with age. Thanks for the reminder to inquire again regarding trading the SolarEdge inverters in for any other brand they can possibly find while trying to find a solar project attorney that works on commission that we can use if this isn’t resolved asap.

The rule of digging holes is stop digging so the hole doesn’t get bigger, which is what SolarEdge is doing in my opinion and our installers opinion by not addressing these failures while continuing to provide new installs. But I am certain this is not unique to SolarEdge. The IRA is waiving a lot of money at the solar industry, and some will try to respond in ways that exceed their means. I don’t see this with Tesla. Nor have I spoken with anyone else who does. They ramped slower than all of us hoped. But the did so in a manner that has them well prepared with the superior products for 2023 and the IRA. I appreciate the tempering of expectations by @petit_bateau for Tesla Energy. I actually under-represented mine yesterday. I don’t just expect Tesla to become the largest company in the world, I see a path for them to become the largest energy provider as well.

 

[Gray Man]

As we (likely) head into a recession, companies will be competing more and more for fewer dollars. Some companies don't have to compete, because they have legal monopolies (California energy). I just received a new rate schedule. For me, I've already got solar, but it was sized pre-EV and on a plan that was far more lucrative with the time of day I produced energy. Today I'm paying substantially more per kWh too. My point is these rates are reducing the fuel savings advantages of EVs away, headed towards zero. Less money for new EV purchase premium. This is happening everywhere. While I can't speak for other countries, I know, in California, these rates will never go back down, even if the increase was justified by temporary cost increases. These energy increases while oil prices decline is a thorn in EV adoption.View attachment 892481

Holy hell, man! Those rates are crazy-go-nuts BONKERS.

Here's the GA Power BEV TOU plan:

And the people here complain about high rates, and needing to pay a tariff to bring Vogtle 3&4 reactors online. I may not agree with my neighbors on a lot of politics, but I'll certainly take these utility rates!!!

 

[H Mak]

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) - December 2022 Official (kind-of) car figures are out Car Registrations

Tesla just under 13% of new car sales of any power type in December, 3.38% of all car sales in the 2022 year. Tesla have top two places in December (all fuel types) with 10,664 (Y) & 5,704 (M3) - number 3 is Nissan Qashqai (Rogue in North America?) at 3,506

They've added a new best seller BEV section for the yearly sales (Tesla Y at 35,551 & Model 3 at 19,071 top the list. Next best is Kia e-Niro at 11,197)

Spoiler: images-tweet

View attachment 892526
View attachment 892527

View attachment 892528



View attachment 892525
Tweet

https://twitter.com/x/status/1610925570660999168

Thanks for posting. I've been waiting for this.

As a reminder, in 2021 the Tesla Model 3 was the 2nd best selling car in the UK behind the Vauxhall Corsa

And now in 2022 we have the Tesla Model Y as the third best selling car

And in the BEV only list, those two models absolutely smash the competition.

If you add the two together, only Ford exceeds Tesla in the all cars bestsellers in 2022

Tesla is fast becoming the dominant player in new car sales in the UK

In summary UK Tesla

 

[2daMoon]

Thanks for posting. I've been waiting for this.

As a reminder, in 2021 the Tesla Model 3 was the 2nd best selling car in the UK behind the Vauxhall Corsa

And now in 2022 we have the Tesla Model Y as the third best selling car

And in the BEV only list, those two models absolutely smash the competition.

If you add the two together, only Ford exceeds Tesla in the all cars bestsellers in 2022

Tesla is fast becoming the dominant player in new car sales in the UK

In summary UK Tesla

So, you're saying the demand problem in the UK is similar to the rest of the world's markets Tesla is in? /S

 

[mongo]

Yes, the redesign could be something as simple as a cabinet or legs that shift weight from the wall directly to the floor.

Powerwalls can be floor supported (if it is flat and non flooding).

Powerwall can be mounted on a floor or wall, and includes a mounting bracket to support either configuration. Mounting Powerwall must follow the guidance outlined in this document.

AFAIK, Tesla never said which chips were problematic.
It could be RAM, Flash, Inverters, Wifi, 4G, SOCs, etc. 1 million chips of these is peanuts compared to what the consumer electronics and computer industry need, so Tesla may just have been a low priority customer for the chip producers.

Yes, they did. Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect


Well, last year was chip hell of many chips, so silicon carbide inverters or -- certainly one of them, but --

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering


Honestly, there's a lot of annoying very boring parts.
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yes. It's a ton of very simple control chips that run-of-the-mill, literally, you know --

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

[Inaudible] you know.


Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah, basic chips to control.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

Things that reference oscillators, so very boring things.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah, exactly. Like the little chip that allows you to move your seat back and forth. That actually was a big problem that can make these.

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

Yeah.

on energy vs autos:

And like I said, with some -- manganese is like a wild card. There's also not a lot of manganese. And I should say like we did short-change the energy business last year, and that vehicle took priority over the energy side. So --

Drew Baglino -- Senior Vice President, Powertrain and Energy Engineering

Not on cells, but on chip side.

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect

Yeah, on chip side, exactly.

 

[Max Plaid]

The reason Tesla doesn't lease many cars is that they want the cars back at the end of the lease, and many people don't want those lease terms.

Telsa plans to use the lease return vehicles to build it's robotaxi fleet. Again, this IRA implimentation meddles with Tesla's plans going forward. IRA is a masterpiece of mischief.

Could Tesla not introduce a 1 month-lease with a one-off payment equalling the cost of the car...?

Edit - I note that MY is listed in all its variants on the IRS website... that wasn't the case before??