You know, as a stock investor what matters is revenue growth. And that was 51% YoY in 2022 during a very challenging year.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You know, as a stock investor what matters is revenue growth. And that was 51% YoY in 2022 during a very challenging year.
So, the Wall Street pirates were working multiple growth stocks today to end the rally. At TSLA, they weren't very successful but look at the 68% of selling tagged to shorts, they certainly were trying. You seldom see percent of selling tagged to shorts get this high. Instead of holding TSLA back, the pirates ended up with TSLA doing well on guidance and lifting futures for the whole NASDAQ tomorrow. I call it poetic justice.
Wall street doesn't believe Tesla's guide, but calls it a miss because Tesla said it. You see this via every analysts' projections. I have posted here Morgan Stanley's projection for 2022 deliveries after Tesla told them their guide. It was 30% below what Tesla actually did for 2022 and yet everyone still called it a miss.They are playing it safe for a change. Whenever they give the guidance they expect but then miss it even in the slightest bit, no matter what the reasons, Wall Street punishes them hard.
I think the fact the Tesla team has realized this and is now understating everything they do is a huge boon. Shows they realize how stupid the market and all these "guidance" numbers truly are.
Those of us who really know what Tesla is doing realize how silly 1.8 million for 2023 is, but let Tesla give these super conservative numbers to the "analysts" who don't know any better. Beating "expectations" is always better when it comes to Wall Street.
Sandbagging for the win, looking forward to Q4 2023!
That's some serious fraud right there folks. "Let me redefine how YoY numbers are calculated and show you how by my definition that no one uses, Tesla sucks".
LoL, just imagine this guy who passed series 7 but doesn't know the definition of year over year.
Hahaha who am I kidding, the guy most likely haven't passed the 4th grade.
This is either sarcasm or stupidity.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Because those are the people who first pushed the idea many years ago and continue to cling to it.
Rob covers the news and needs to address things his viewers and patrons are worried about. And with how much coverage Tesla's "demand problems" have received, it would be really odd for him to not cover that. I don't watch every show he produces but the ones I've seen he has pointed out that there was not enough data to conclude there were demand problems. It's also important to realize that all products have demand limits at various price points. What's relevant here is something I've been hammering on for over a year now, maybe two years, Tesla's pricing power. That is what wipes out concerns about demand problems.
Maybe ask yourself this; what is the last product you can remember that was growing at over 40% every year that had a "demand problem"? Do you think EV sales are a fad or that the competing products are actually competitive with Tesla or available in high enough volumes to even matter? Use your head!
Yes, acknowledging reality is important, I would suggest you are not acknowledging what "demand problem" means. I don't think the word "problem" means what you think it does. It's literally in Tesla's business plan to continually make EV's more affordable. That's their mission! In 2022, Elon actually apologized for the high prices of their cars and said he hoped they would be able to lower them soon. How is that a "problem"? The fact that they can lower prices is one of Tesla's greatest strengths relative to other manufacturers.
I don't care about upvotes and praise, I care about analysis that makes sense and ensuring the viability of my primary investments. People who worry about demand problems have been wrong since 2012 and Tesla has built a world-class business betting against what those very people said was impossible. So, forgive me if I think those people have been wrong for over a decade and will continue to be wrong. They are not the ones whose investments have increased over 100 fold!
As to me being a hyperbull, I don't know about that. I am one who cautioned about believing the super high margins being projected for Megapacks recently and I was also one who stated my discomfort with how fast and how high Tesla valuations went in 2021. I am a long-term successful investor who doesn't like to see false narratives repeatedly and endlessly rehashed when they don't have any relevance in reality. Demand is not a problem and this largely due to Tesla's organizational and manufacturing efficiency. The machine that builds the machine is the product and no one else can match it. Demand is not the problem; the problem is making enough batteries and vehicles to carry out the mission.
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Also shows the relatively minuscule contribution of credits (for now).
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Mark's Beagle
Banned
Well Tesla guided for decreasing margins for 2023. This severely caps what the share price can reach this year. Earnings between $4 and $5 means relatively low growth, maybe 30% earnings growth at best. Fair share price this year will be around $120.
It could probably top out near $200 as shorts exit realizing profits aren't going to 0, but it's gonna head back down soon after.
It could probably top out near $200 as shorts exit realizing profits aren't going to 0, but it's gonna head back down soon after.
When a company prices its products to drive all other competitors out of business, you need to factor in growth and consequently a higher P/E. Even if overall profit stays the same, share price can double once it becomes clear that the US EV market is increasingly becoming a one-player market.
Krugerrand
Meow
A certain amount of comfort in knowing things haven’t changed even a little bit, and yet profoundly sad at the same time.
insurance, battery production, hardware for ai compute all have the same goals for tesla. and they're now clearer than ever after today's report: if you don't do it, we will, because you're charging too much for what you have to offer without the performance we want.
best of luck to the competitors...
best of luck to the competitors...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
So it's interesting that the average of these 8 Retail predictions for non-GAAP EPS was $1.199 which was actually closer to the number Tesla reported ($1.19) than any other single prediction. Wisdom of the Crowd, wot?
The Wisdom of the Wall St. crowd? Not so much! (they were off by 7 cents per share, which was 5.9% too low).
Well Done Retail Longs!
I believe they said operating margins will only be affected in the short term. Seems like it once Berlin/Texas/4680 drag disappears, we should see OM increasing back again.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Okay, explain why anyone would even respond to a post by someone using Toilet Boy as their avatar?
Please, don't feed the
As for the 50% growth, SMR's post-ER video touches on how it shows in the slide deck that Tesla uses a multi-year horizon for calculating growth which started with 2020 and averages from there. For 2023, 50% lands around 1.7M, so 1.8M is (officially) aiming for more than 50%.
Please, don't feed the
As for the 50% growth, SMR's post-ER video touches on how it shows in the slide deck that Tesla uses a multi-year horizon for calculating growth which started with 2020 and averages from there. For 2023, 50% lands around 1.7M, so 1.8M is (officially) aiming for more than 50%.
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Ignoring the misuse of YoY as annualized 4th Q results, isn't this:
That if 1.8mm vehicles is accurate, then QoQ growth (and thus automotive growth in general) in 2023 is near zero.
Of course, that (GJ Tweet, not Gigapress) ignores energy and FSD and insurance and efficiency gains which can drive greater profits.
Also overlooks CT ramp toward volume production in 2024. 2.0mm productiom gets us 2k/wk additional from both Austin and Berlin putting them at >250k/yr average (half Berlin phase 1 target).
Saying the same as this:
?
That if 1.8mm vehicles is accurate, then QoQ growth (and thus automotive growth in general) in 2023 is near zero.
Of course, that (GJ Tweet, not Gigapress) ignores energy and FSD and insurance and efficiency gains which can drive greater profits.
Also overlooks CT ramp toward volume production in 2024. 2.0mm productiom gets us 2k/wk additional from both Austin and Berlin putting them at >250k/yr average (half Berlin phase 1 target).
Not saying I agree with dingus, but Tesla putting out what seems to be a lowball estimate sets them up for this kind of commentary.
I think it’s one of those deals where you really can’t win.
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