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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I think the potential problem with South America and places like Brazil, which appears to be the biggest car market in South America, is just economic reality: people in these places do not have the $$$ of North America, Europe, etc.
I’m digging into vehicle sales in Brazil and see OEMs selling there but I’ve never heard of any of the models. Googling a handful of best sellers, they’re all small + low power + pretty bare bones and cost like <$15k USD. The next gen platform might be able to scratch that itch if it’s small and cheap enough.
Next we could speculate on the charging infrastructure and electrical infrastructure in general in these places. But again going back to the economic realities, my gut feeling is that things would need to happen to spur broad EV adoption and they would need to start happening like now.
I’m digging into vehicle sales in Brazil and see OEMs selling there but I’ve never heard of any of the models. Googling a handful of best sellers, they’re all small + low power + pretty bare bones and cost like <$15k USD. The next gen platform might be able to scratch that itch if it’s small and cheap enough.
Next we could speculate on the charging infrastructure and electrical infrastructure in general in these places. But again going back to the economic realities, my gut feeling is that things would need to happen to spur broad EV adoption and they would need to start happening like now.
Went to read the comment and found I blocked him long ago.
GhostSkater
Member
In that case he should stick to his charts and don’t add commentary that 90% of the time is completely wrong, takes away from what he is good at
And I’m sorry, Troy and staggering breadth of engineering in the same phrase? That’s funny lol
Exactly, last data point is a bit over 100 Teslas being driven here
And with the ridiculously bad and small charging infrastructure we have here, it’s hard to make a case for EVs yet
Tesla need really few Superchargers here to cover most of the routes the initial owners would use, it’s not like the US that people cross the country and everywhere is developed and there will be clients
Hell, even me if I had the money wouldn’t buy a Tesla or any other EV here, and getting a Tesla is in my dream list
The way it is right now one charger not working and you stranded, period, no alternatives, no nothing, at least in the trips I do somewhat regularly, specially since most if not all stations is one CCS plug, that’s it, no switching stalls or anything like that
Well, if it was a Roadster 202X maybe, since I could do all my trips in one charge
Yes, and do you build a factory at Monterey to put all your cars on a ship? Maybe, but that doesn't feel right. I think its more likely that the new model is for central and north america. Tesla continues to expand charging and service infrastructure south.
I would be interested in the total >$20K car market in all of south america.
GhostSkater
Member
Indeed, vast majority of vehicles are cheap and older. In the past years, even before covid and all that vehicle prices skyrocket, probably due to our currency loosing so much value in the past 10 years
I can’t say on buying power, but the popular cars more than doubled the price, mine that isn’t a popular it’s over 50% more expensive today than when I got it in 2018
Toyota Corolla is luxury here, not the people’s car like in the US, but for you guys to check out, the popular cars here are VW Gol, Fiat Mobi, Renault Kwid and some others similar, small cars, not that safe and underpowered
While Tesla would get a good portion of the market at Corolla prices, I doubt we could absorve even half of Giga Mexico output, they need a car to compete with the ones above, if that is even possible
Those usually comes with nothing, trim doesn’t cover every panel, no stereo or speakers on the cheapest versions, A/C is not a guarantee and so on
And the worse part is, the price those trash box sell today are ridiculous for what they are, they aren’t cheap anymore
Just a bit more context, I paid in 2018 on my Jeep Renegade, which is a really nice car for here, the same as a barebones VW Gol sells for today, absolutely bonkers
And what if there is no recession which cannot be ruled out?
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Does Tesla go with an Exoskeleton style exterior on all of their vehicles going forward? Which is to say, the skin is structure on the car. There would still be a passenger cage.
If so, I don’t think plastic would work.
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
If you look more closely, "staggering breadth of engineering" applies to Elon Musk... I'd disagree with my post, too, if I wrote that about Troy...
Saw that on my Twitter feed and rolled my eyes.
Seems pretty clear to me the first Tesla going to South America will be a more affordable Gen3 car.
Brings up a very interesting thought. Highly possible Gen 3 vehicles will ship in other countries before it ships in the US. Almost everyone has assumed Gen 3 comes to the US first, but it may well be manufactured in Mexico, consumed domestically there, and exported to South America but not imported into America for some time. This would mean Tesla could use Chinese made batteries there and not worry about IRA compliance.
Those views are those of otherwise well informed non-EV drivers in Brazil. I own a Volvo XC40 Recharge which I desperately want to replace with a Tesla. Sure, EV charging is sparse, and Tesla, as always. will be the impetus to fix that. However, I do road trips without much hassle, doing them here in Brazil just as I did in the US in 2012-2015. I manage to find a hotel with charging everywhere, often a wall plug, but usually those at 220v/10a or so, enough for an easily overnight charge to 90%. Then there are shopping centers that also have EV charging, our local preferred one is Rio has eight (8) Bosch units that charge 220v/20a, and those are rarely totally occupied but do get heavy use (Volvo, Porsche, MB, BMW, the odd Peugeot, Fiat or Chery). My supermarket has one purpose charge and a few wall connections.
Obviously anecdotal, but I never have a problem. Just as in the US and Europe back then, people seem to enjoy providing a charge.
Just as everywhere else the massive value of Tesla Superchargers is that they are visibly, blatantly, for BEV and there are rarely fewer than four. Then the Destination Chargers are the next thing. Until those are widely accessible non-BEV drivers will not perceive any chance and even if they do the recognize that the search is a hassle. True, it is.
In the meantime day by day it does improve here and there are now more than twenty versions on sale for cars and a dozen or so for cars and busses.
What few recognize si how much cheaper and easier it is to survive Brazilian city traffic with a BEV. That alone is making several of my family members to consider BEV. However, as TSLA shareholders they'll probably all wait for a Tesla. In the meantime they all want to ride in my Volvo.
As we think about Monterrey we also ned to think about massive Supercharger deployment in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile, plus more in Mexico. Even though Brazil is about the size of the US 48 States, like the US they do not ned to populate all that area. Major city connections in the South will afford most needs, connecting about eight cities, with lesser areas around another half dozen smaller more Northern ones. Similarly the other three significant countries actually have small necessary coverage. A major advantage fo that is that such deployments can be more extensive by opening them immediately to all other brands, thus advancing the mission. Since the regional stands is already EU CCS no adapters will be needed. That...can come with nice tax benefits too.
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The entire latin american new car market is 4 million cars. Troy is likely correct. The typical retail car buyer is truly affluent and wants an American SUV. How does Tesla profitably sell a small margin car over a vast geographic area and provide charging and service?
Troy's opinion is as good as anyone here. It's unlikely he is a working engineer.
One place I think he is recently wrong is looking at the $25K as after renbate. $32K retail rpice is too close to the entry level M3
I think this plan also goes along with the goal of cutting production cost by 50%. If Tesla makes the Model 3 half as expensive in 2-3 years they can sell a lot of cars in South America. I think Tesla should sell energy solutions to this market too, since their current electric grids likely cannot sustain a large number of electric vehicles.
GhostSkater
Member
My bad in that caseIf you look more closely, "staggering breadth of engineering" applies to Elon Musk... I'd disagree with my post, too, if I wrote that about Troy...
I'd love to see them start by expanding supercharging in Mexico. its not bad there, but its not as extensive as in the US, Europe or China. IMHO, they need to have it in every city and along every toll road (the way they started in the US -- toll roads are the equivalent of cross-country roads in the US) before they launch that new vehicle.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Two points:
- Aluminum smelting is almost always done near sources of cheap hydroelectric power, due to the vast amount of electricity required to extract AL from bauxite, and
- There is no indication (beyond some vloggers) that the Gen 3 car will be made of aluminum. The structure of the Model 3/Y was already switched to steel (of various grades) due to cost and total supply/abundance of AL vs. FE:
- this switch was already important going from S/X to 3/Y, and
- although 3/Y does use some AL in fender parts, there are alternative materials (such as thermoplastics) which may be considerations for body paint
Why Mexico drew the line on including aluminum in tougher auto ...
financialpost.com › news › economy
Feb 11, 2020 · Mexico has no aluminum smelting capacity and relies on imported scrap and billets, which it melts and recasts into auto parts.
Cheers!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
We keep hearing about this recession that never seems to show up.
There's a market everywhere, but they will probably build EU market cars in Berlin, Asia in Shanghai, as usual. They could ship initially like they served EU from Shanghai until Berlin came online, but I think they won't bother since those cheaper vehicles will be more useful in underserved markets.
All of Americas will likely be served by Monterey, at least until they build more factories that build "model 2" vehicles. I doubt they will build them in the USA or Canada unless they can replace most labor with Optimus, and that doesn't seem likely for the next few years.
Weld, glue, whatever they would have done normally. The concept is an alignment jig to work with the unboxed process, to try and get the best alignment possible, without every part being cast and CNC, and do it quickly.Will they then be welding the cast aluminum to the stamped steel?
This from my Google news feed on my phone: Tesla Did Introduce The Model 2 This Week At $26,000, But Kept It Quiet
They do a reasonable job of coming up with the stated figure in part by doing some back of the envelope math based on the slide comparing the Camry, Model 3, and "next gen" vehicle TCO, and point out that it could be nearly half that depending on local rebates/credits.
They do a reasonable job of coming up with the stated figure in part by doing some back of the envelope math based on the slide comparing the Camry, Model 3, and "next gen" vehicle TCO, and point out that it could be nearly half that depending on local rebates/credits.
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