Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

Most families do NOT own a Tesla, not yet.

Even with a Tesla you still have to deal with parking, a big hassle in dense cities.

Your insurance won't be zero because it's still a multi ton death machine you're playing with at high speed.

That's the thing, people have to buy insurance for "liability". The biggest source of liability for most people is the freaking car. You can do a lot less damage with a bicycle.

But enough families can buy a Tesla instead of the ICEv they are currently paying for maintenance, transmissions and fuel cost for etc.

With owning a Tesla you don't have to deal with the hassle of waiting for transportation, you have your own mobile storage, and you make money off TaaS instead feeding profits into it. It is always better to be the pimp than than ho.

Thing is Tesla with FSD is not a Killing machine. At least as compared to other land transport.

You are more likely to get seriously damaged on a bicycle.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I’m not expecting much in terms of stock movement from FSD event. I think cash utilization in Q1 followed by Q2 deliveries are the important near term events.

I’d like to see cash grow (net of bond repayment) in Q1 and deliveries to hit all time high in Q2. If Q1 cash declines significant (net or bond) then the worry shifts to the Q2 financials.

FSD could pull some upgrade demand, but I have faith in parking lot sightings short term. Wish a network would do a story on FSD. Hope they were invited front row.

 

[ZeApelido]

People are worried if they should buy FSD now vs waiting and probably paying more later... I'd be more worried if I should take that money and back up the Brinks truck to buy stock now.

Cuz the stock is going to go Falcon Heavy on us if FSD gets real in a few years.

 

[Cosmacelf]

When not on this thread I watch some TV.
Sometimes I watch live sports on tv and read this thread at the same time.

I’m watching UFC while reading this thread...

Good PPV card about to start.

 

[Artful Dodger]

C’mon Lodger, you gotta admit the forum has its good days too.

Oh haha , but sad face too:

I was hoping (in vain) somebody would comment on my link and notice that its actually in error too (too late into video), because "all input is error".

Guess I'll have to say it explicitly now. Watch my link starting at 12:05 (10 sec earlier than above).

Cheers!

 

[mblakele]

Mercedes is selling buses with solid state batteries! I was unaware that anyone was this far along with development.

Mercedes Scores Record Order For eCitaro: Some With Solid-State Batteries

[...]

The solid-state batteries supplied by Bollore’s Blue Solution were announced in 2018. Those are the batteries known also as Lithium Metal Polymer (LMP), which are however required to operate at a high temperature of 60-80°C.​

That's a pretty high operating temperature: about 140-175°F. Probably not suitable for consumer vehicles. I'd imagine the bus depots have to help these buses heat up to operating temperature before they can leave the depot. The link supports that idea.

[...]

The first 15 eCitaro for Wiesbaden will be equipped with current-generation lithium-ion batteries. These are NMC batteries (lithium-nickel-manganese-cobalt-oxide cells). Each eCitaro is equipped with twelve battery packs with a total capacity of 292 kWh.

The remaining 41 eCitaro will be equipped with solid-state batteries. With this new battery technology, the eCitaro once again takes on a leading role, and is even among the pioneers in automotive construction. Solid-state batteries have a very high energy density. In this case, seven battery packs are sufficient in order to provide a huge battery capacity of 441 kWh. Even in winter when faced with the difficult demands of using all-electric heating, the eCitaro can still cover more than 200 km according to the SORT 2 testing method.​

What's SORT2 and how does it compare to EPA? I found a few references to SORT1 ca. 2001-2004, but no solid answers.

Anyway I don't think this is relevant to TSLA's current products. Maybe it's competition for the semi?

 

[Thumper]

I'm quite skeptical of the effectiveness of remote drivers. Pretend you are a remote driver. You sit all day in front of screens which may light up at any moment. When they do, you must be, at that instant, in a state of high alert, evaluate what by definition is likely a life or death situation (else it would have been handled locally) and take the appropriate action. Add to your latency the latency in the internet (OK not sometimes but often) and the likelihood of a happy outcome is low and you have now taken on liability at the company level that might otherwise be avoidable.

 

[Chickenlittle]

To be fair to Mr. Buffett, he "has input" into every company in which Berkshire invests. His actions appear to be be benign , mostly, because he chooses to invest with management he trusts. One should never confuse that with lack of involvement or influence. Factually, he seems placid but is obsessive about detail and understanding those details. That said his techniques are financial rather than technological as he regularly repeats.

Yes I am sure he directs product and software development at apple

 

[BBone]

And there are electric aircraft flying with lithium-sulfur batteries, and have been for years. That doesn't mean that the tech is ready for prime-time.

I think the other point is that there are current solid state batteries that can be manufactured. But at what cost? And what complexity and timelines of production? And usable energy storage capacity? Only guessing here that Mercedes used some solid state for those who were prepared to pay a premium for them and for lower capacity solid state battery packs.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm sitting here watching TV on a 55" that fit just fine in my 3.

On the down side, I'm watching the Sixers lay an egg.

If not for the sad face, one might have concluded it was a golden egg.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What is skynet ?

SpaceX Internet (for now called 'Starlink' just until Elon can buyup Sky network).

SpaceX takes its first step toward selling Americans internet from space

 

[Krugerrand]

I will say just from the mood and assumptions from practically all the media and message boards over this weekend, especially today with elons tweet.....if they do actually show off full FSD, it will shock everyone. Literally no one besides a few people here actually think they can do it. Really hope Elons not hyping up just like 1 or 2 new features.

Let me take this moment to remind everyone this isn’t just an Elon event. Karpathy and others are supposed to be presenting!

I think they’ve got it and it’s just a matter of collecting some more data and cleaning up the rough edges - relatively speaking.

I fully expect almost nobody to grasp the significance.

 

[RobStark]

Watching Atlanta United as I type!

Dan

Watching The Lion score his 2nd goal tonight.

 

[Jo-]

Sure, but how many people were delaying a vehicle purchase or waffling on a Y now jump on a (pre)order to get the lower price?
For Y, $2,500 refundable now to save $?? in the future...

Me. If I’m considering the car, why not go ahead and put down a refundable 2.5K? But yes I will watch the April 22nd event first.

 

[gluu]

The numbers are not adding up for me. S&X cells don't come from giga. At 24 gWh, Tesla should be able to make 75k cars per qtr., unless Elon is quoting burst capacity and not average.

Battery expert on reddit says there’s yield loss in module bandolier attachment and welding and the total output seems legit to him.

 

[KSilver2000]

Why not get excited about one or two big features? If they come out and demonstrate Nav On Autopilot type functionality on surface streets that would be huge. Why do we all want to set ourselves up for disappointment? We, as bulls, should be excited about any major development. None of the competition seems to be doing anything significant. Let the bears do all the unrealistic expectations. That's what they're good at.

Dan

For Tesla, April 22 event will be a great event showing progress with autopilot.
For TSLA, it will likely not affect stock price. May even drop SP if it is not substantial enough. At least I hope the lead up to the event will increase the SP like all previous events.

Did the next gen Supercharger, or Model Y unveil, or $35K Model 3 release events drive up the stock price? Did increasing prices drive up SP as it would for many other larger companies? Nope. Nor do I think this upcoming event will. Not saying it’s not warranted, just stating the way this stock is traded.
In the short term, TSLA is really dependent on how many Model 3s can be produced and sold. Not much else.Very simple.

 

[M3Rider]

Looks like I missed a lot of tweeting...Was this a joke?

On April 22, not some time later?

 

[M3Rider]

What's the point of raising FSD price on May 1, btw? Does he expect somebody like Uber to buy a whole bunch if cars with FSD for cheap(3k less) and park them for the next 3 years?

 

[RobStark]

Did the next gen Supercharger, or Model Y unveil, or $35K Model 3 release events drive up the stock price? Did increasing prices drive up SP as it would for many other larger companies? Nope.

The financial implications of FSD are orders of magnitude more important than any of those previous events.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The financial implications of FSD are orders of magnitude more important than any of those previous events.

Yeah if Tesla actually has FSD working, even in an alpha form, then that's essentially 170 billion in company value (waymo's valuation)