Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Anyone that bought a decent amount of TSLA up until mid 2019 and held even now could probably not have to work again...

Well, there are two aspects of investing people needs to get right in which most people don't.

1. Require you to invest a LOT of your money, like over 6 figures, into one risky company.

2. With that much money on the line, you need to not take profit too early, not have stop losses, and hodl through many down and even negative balance days. Most people couldn't time the exact bottom, so when they see massive negative numbers for months, they intend to sell once the stock goes back to where they bought it and make zero in return because the pain was harsh and scary.

So most people either invested like 3-5k in Tesla and now has 30-50k if they are lucky, or took profit or took a loss a long time ago. The majority of new investors are the ones who yoloed as Tesla went up to over 400 and they are mostly in the red because people loves to buy at all time highs vs all time lows. Lots of people here has really low cost basis but as Tesla made those runs, people gained more and more confidence buying at higher levels to the point that they are upside down at 170, even though they bought in 2019.


So if you were so bullish while the company was tanking in 2019 that you put in over 6 figures, but then bearish enough to not buy as Tesla ran up to 400, was also not tempted to buy any dip then yes you can probably retire today.

 

[AndrewZ]

Please, this is a red herring. FDIC insurance limits are an anachronism that continues by tradition. ALL depositors will be paid. ALL. Even in the last trash even specify firm non-insured deposits were paid as well megadeposits. Every one.

Do you work in banking or otherwise have in depth knowledge about this type of event? I want to know whether I can go around saying this now without doing too much further digging for confirmation haha

But it feels like even just cash flow may be the bigger issue if all deposits do end up getting paid out. We know insured deposits will be paid by Monday, hopefully uninsured portions don't take much longer but I'm sure others in here can attest to how a week, two week, month delay in cash flow can be the death of smaller businesses -- or at least that's how it is in my industry where cash flow tends to be what does the damage (from clients delaying invoice payment or what have you)

 

[wtlloyd]

Do you work in banking or otherwise have in depth knowledge about this type of event? I want to know whether I can go around saying this now without doing too much further digging for confirmation haha

But it feels like even just cash flow may be the bigger issue if all deposits do end up getting paid out. We know insured deposits will be paid by Monday, hopefully uninsured portions don't take much longer but I'm sure others in here can attest to how a week, two week, month delay in cash flow can be the death of smaller businesses -- or at least that's how it is in my industry where cash flow tends to be what does the damage (from clients delaying invoice payment or what have you)

Pretty much anything UNK45 comments on, you can take....to the bank.

 

[ZeApelido]

Pretty much anything UNK45 comments on, you can take....to the bank.

Silicon Valley Bank?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Savage ZeApelido. I know what you did last post.

 

[unk45]

Do you work in banking or otherwise have in depth knowledge about this type of event? I want to know whether I can go around saying this now without doing too much further digging for confirmation haha

But it feels like even just cash flow may be the bigger issue if all deposits do end up getting paid out. We know insured deposits will be paid by Monday, hopefully uninsured portions don't take much longer but I'm sure others in here can attest to how a week, two week, month delay in cash flow can be the death of smaller businesses -- or at least that's how it is in my industry where cash flow tends to be what does the damage (from clients delaying invoice payment or what have you)

I am not the only one on the board with experience. During 2008/2209 and during 1973/1074 I was working with banks on acquisition fo failing ones, integration post purchase, FDIC/US Treasury negotiations also. My clients included those that were the largest failures and acquirers. Decades earlier I had been an officer of two of them doing international acquisitions, startups and divestitures.

Given my checkered history, by far the most difficult were the sequence of US savings bank failures around 1095, then the mortgage meltdown in 2008 that annihilated everyone form GMAC to Bank of America NT&SA, Wachovia, Washington Mutual but the largest by far was the one non-participants mostly never heard of; AIG closely related to LTCM.

Being a consultant to and repairer was vastly preferable to being an executive responsible for these disasters.

From our point off view with TSLA keep in mind that no matter what happens Tesla si better prepared than are others because they eliminated debt. That is one reason I hate derivatives, and one reason I normally oppose buybacks. Those two contribute to disasters.

Thanks for Elon, who has largely avoided silly risk. The business itself is enough risk.

 

[GOVA]

It doesn't.

Many people are out of touch with how bad the economy is for the working class. Wages have not kept up with productivity gains since the 1970s in the USA, and have not kept up with inflation in recent years.

Many people are working multiple jobs and still debt is increasing. In housing, the USA is now the most expensive to buy a house relative to income that it has ever been since record keeping started tracking that metric. Several other metrics show the situation is worse than 2008.

For the poorer people, if they're living on govt assistance and can only find jobs that won't pay enough to cover the bills after govt assistance goes away (which it does, including healthcare in many states once you pass a low income threshold), then why bother?

While this is obviously true, what is the number of people that actually know why that has been the case and what is the solution to fix this?

My strong guess is next to zilch, especailly about the why part.

 

[AndrewZ]

I am not the only one on the board with experience. During 2008/2209 and during 1973/1074 I was working with banks on acquisition fo failing ones, integration post purchase, FDIC/US Treasury negotiations also. My clients included those that were the largest failures and acquirers. Decades earlier I had been an officer of two of them doing international acquisitions, startups and divestitures.

Given my checkered history, by far the most difficult were the sequence of US savings bank failures around 1095, then the mortgage meltdown in 2008 that annihilated everyone form GMAC to Bank of America NT&SA, Wachovia, Washington Mutual but the largest by far was the one non-participants mostly never heard of; AIG closely related to LTCM.

Being a consultant to and repairer was vastly preferable to being an executive responsible for these disasters.

From our point off view with TSLA keep in mind that no matter what happens Tesla si better prepared than are others because they eliminated debt. That is one reason I hate derivatives, and one reason I normally oppose buybacks. Those two contribute to disasters.

Thanks for Elon, who has largely avoided silly risk. The business itself is enough risk.

Awesome insight

I definitely think Elon is more risk-averse than many observers, not to the detriment but just prudently hoping for the best and planning for the worst. He has dropped quite a few warnings over the last couple years, whether people want to listen to them or not.

 

[Max Plaid]

@Max Plaid We’re barely a week later and the situation looks totally different. A proportionally very large number of cars where delivered in Norway this week (1000+ just this week versus 2000 in the rest of the quarter so far). It remains to be seen whether this is an outlier or the start of an end of quarter wave.
It’s been some time since the last ship towards EU departed from Shanghai, so it looks like we won’t get into a steady state delivery flow in Q2 (or the production in Berlin is high enough not to need this anymore).

Yes, I spotted that it went nuts in NO this week - that being said, if Berlin is producing 4000 MY per week then that's roughly the equivalent of one ship per week arriving

I was at Tesla Brussels yesterday, for a Friday afternoon there were quite some people in the showroom, I asked how sales were going, "like selling sandwiches" they told me

 

[Snerruc]

People speculating about the influence of Covid payments on the blue collar workforce could also consider the multiplicity of other government programs available. One could also consider the effect of a guaranteed universal minimum income on this situation. A book was written on the subject of experts deciding to help people in some way and people using the program in what they considered was the best way for them. Usually this is unexpected and also often disastrous in some way. Not sure how this subject applies to Tesla, but they could well run into some of these problems hiring in the future.

 

[Unpilot]

1. Require you to invest a LOT of your money, like over 6 figures, into one risky company.

 

[KBF]

Or you can make a Cyber-Brat version:

View attachment 916285

I loved the jump seats in my Sig model S...

My oldest is already 18, and so realistically we're not going on too many family trips by the time the Cybertruck rolls around here. It's a tough mindset adjustment for me, though! And if we do, we technically could drive 2 vehicles... I guess he'll have to buy his own Cybertruck (he could probably live in it, too... He might enjoy the nomad life). His TSLA shares needs to jump first (well, really I've taught him to HODL and save money, so SP doesn't matter as much as enjoying his work and living efficiently).

 

[Krugerrand]

I was at Tesla Brussels yesterday, for a Friday afternoon there were quite some people in the showroom, I asked how sales were going, "like selling sandwiches" they told me

I think that means good, but just for clarification - what kind of sandwiches? Day olds? Freshly baked artisan breads? PB&J? Gluten free? Organic? Vegan? With or without condiments? The Queen’s finger sandwiches? Processed meats? Was bacon involved?

See what I mean? Too many unanswered questions.

 

[Cosmacelf]

In every significant US bank failure since the 1930’s all depositors have been made whole. This one differs from all those of 2008-2009 and previous multiple bank failures in that the failure was unusually sudden. Within a few days there will be a new bank to assume those obligations.
in 2008-2009 even non-bank obligations were met by selling brokerage firms and converting investment banks to commercial banks.

Be calm. Depositors will not lose deposits.

All depositors? Got a reference for that? The FDIC page just says no insured depositors have lost their money. I did do a search and didn’t find conclusive evidence of larger depositors losing money. We shall see. I’m invested in a real estate fund with several $B of assets and they have $11M in a SVB account, so I’ll find out how this one goes for sure…

 

[Krugerrand]

All depositors? Got a reference for that? The FDIC page just says no insured depositors have lost their money. I did do a search and didn’t find conclusive evidence of larger depositors losing money. We shall see. I’m invested in a real estate fund with several $B of assets and they have $11M in a SVB account, so I’ll find out how this one goes for sure…

The proof is in the movie It’s A Wonderful Life.

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, a year ago Sasha was sounding the alarm that inflation is going to get worst. Multiple videos of him sounding the alarm and those were not very popular on his channel.

I think he's just saying things how he sees them, without the hyperbole. Inflation is dropping and will drop quickly, maybe faster in Europe than the US, but you can't deny that the war spiked prices starting one year back and the supply-chains are generally back to normal, with some food items being an exception - and that in Europe is mostly down to energy prices, which have now collapsed, so this will recover too

Just common-sense and a scratching beneath the surface a bit, rather than just shouting that "we're all doomed"

And he's right, buying at ATH and selling at the bottom is pretty dumb, but funnily enough, it's what a lot of retail end up doing

 

[wipster]

Pretty expensive, but pretty cool! Can't wait to see this pulled behind a CyberTruck.

Lightship L1 Electric RV Trailer Propels Itself To Maintain Tow Vehicle Range

With an 80 kWh battery, the L1 propels itself and powers all of its appliances for up to a week.

insideevs.com

Bite me Adam Jonas, the CT will transform the automotive industry.

 

[wipster]

Awesome insight

I definitely think Elon is more risk-averse than many observers, not to the detriment but just prudently hoping for the best and planning for the worst. He has dropped quite a few warnings over the last couple years, whether people want to listen to them or not.

I concur about Tesla and hopefully SpaceX, but what about Twitter? Was SVB involved there in any way?

Not that it makes a difference to me... the blue Bird "permanently suspended" me about a month ago, all because of an off hand comment on a tweet. Really frustrating. If anyone else has had a similar situation, please DM me so we can keep it off this board.

 

[unk45]

All depositors? Got a reference for that? The FDIC page just says no insured depositors have lost their money. I did do a search and didn’t find conclusive evidence of larger depositors losing money. We shall see. I’m invested in a real estate fund with several $B of assets and they have $11M in a SVB account, so I’ll find out how this one goes for sure…

No reference publicly available.
That no depositors losing is not official policy. The tactics used have always been to find some other institution to honor all deposits, while negotiating for risk assets. Typically the losses on risk assets are taken by the FDIC.
These deals are not secret, but details are intentionally arcane, so loss recognition by FDIC can often be deferred for years. Details of all this go far off topic.
It is deposits that get protected. An account that is something other than deposits is NOT protected. Definitions matter!
FWIW, a money market account is not a deposit account although it behaves like one.

 

[Captkerosene]

I am not the only one on the board with experience. During 2008/2209 and during 1973/1074 I was working with banks on acquisition fo failing ones, integration post purchase, FDIC/US Treasury negotiations also. My clients included those that were the largest failures and acquirers. Decades earlier I had been an officer of two of them doing international acquisitions, startups and divestitures.

Given my checkered history, by far the most difficult were the sequence of US savings bank failures around 1095, then the mortgage meltdown in 2008 that annihilated everyone form GMAC to Bank of America NT&SA, Wachovia, Washington Mutual but the largest by far was the one non-participants mostly never heard of; AIG closely related to LTCM.

Being a consultant to and repairer was vastly preferable to being an executive responsible for these disasters.

From our point off view with TSLA keep in mind that no matter what happens Tesla si better prepared than are others because they eliminated debt. That is one reason I hate derivatives, and one reason I normally oppose buybacks. Those two contribute to disasters.

Thanks for Elon, who has largely avoided silly risk. The business itself is enough risk.

We're lucky to have someone so knowledgeable about banking on the board. What do you think, can Elon buy SVB?

Elon has stated that he wants Twitter to be a bank. What an opportunity to make that happen. Is it possible that on Monday the world will find out that Elon (or TWTR or TSLA) bought a bank? Obviously, anybody else and I'd be laughing at the idea. But, Elon does what he says and he's made it clear he wants to go in that direction. Maybe combine SVB with Twitter and go public with a $10B offering for bank reserves and capital. Hedge funds and VCs with deep pockets would love to own part of their own bank.

It seems that it would be much easier for a big bank to step in and absorb SVB than to sell it to a media company or tech guy. Time is a big deal when it comes to preserving the assets of a failing business. So maybe another big bank will get the deal done by Monday? On the other hand, shouldn't the bank go the the highest bidder? Preserve whatever value is present for the shareholders.

Banking is ripe for innovation. SpaceX could provide SVB with their own encrypted network for the transmission of secure payments data. (Disrupt Visa.) Twitter and Elon will give SVB tremendous visibility.

Buying a bank also fits in with Elon's free speech initiatives. Governments are trying to gain greater control over citizens by controlling their money.

Who better than Elon (and team) to judge the viability of small tech startups?

Imagine being a Tesla supplier:

Elon: we want you to build ten lithium refineries and give us preferential treatment.

Supplier: love to but we don't have the tech or the money.

Elon: we already have the design and equipment, call my bank ... they're expecting your call.

It is Saturday after all.