cliff harris
Member
Being 'ready to deploy' only matters if you make money. Unless there is a path to making a profit per ride, then all they are ready to deploy is greater quantities of red ink. AFAIK waymo is laughably loss-making?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Thank you for getting the thread back on topic. My nomination for post of the day.
Xepa777
Member
Ready to deploy now? LoL. To TWO small geo-fenced areas . . .
What a joke.
Oh, and guess which one tops the charts for accident rates . . .
Waymo tops NHTSA’s list for autonomous vehicle crashes
The feds released a first-time report aimed at developing a clearer picture of autonomous vehicle safety.www.freightwaves.com
You’re being $TSLAQ with that argument and it’s hypocritical and sad.
1) Who cares about top line numbers with out a rate? What is the accident rate per 100,000 miles? And who cares about being the “leading” accident creators in a nascent industry with no on legitimately fully deployed now?
2) Tesla isn’t even comparable because it has human drivers. But from what we’ve seen with crowdsourced data human interventions are between every 20-50 miles, which is like 3-4 orders of magnitude of where it should be.
3) it’s so disappointing to have to demean and diminish others just to prop up your own horse. As an investor this is what leads to foolish emotional decisions.
4) It’s possible to say (a) Waymo probably deploys first to commercialization on a meaningful scale, (b) recognize it’s not economical for them now and possibly ever, (c) recognize that perhaps equipment and operational costs go down over time (like how LiDAR prices have drastically gone down over the years) to make their approach longterm feasible even if you’re skeptical of the likelihood of it, (4) believe that teslas approach is the most scalable longterm and feel confident it’s the winning approach, (5) recognize all the many steps tesla has to take in order to deploy a robotaxi as a far off and uncertain timeline and appreciate the fact that this is becoming available which will benefit society in general
Nuance…so abundant here when tackling fud. Yet…absent when discussing anyone not tesla. So disappointing.
Prudent projections around generalized robotaxis and their revenues/profits need to be made by observing the program as a whole rather than experiencing it yourself in one location. But in a "weakest link" sort of sense and barring some type of geofencing, of which there is no indication so far, Beta is probably as close to generalized robotaxis as where it performs worst. Whether or not you get that experience depends entirely upon the locations and conditions under which you activate FSD.
I've never really understood why these discussions aren't wanted in an investing thread when robotaxi revenues make up a huge chunk of some analyst's (like ARK's) 5-year price forecasts
Mike Smith
Active Member
The vast majority of investors have no idea that Tesla is selling self-driving cars. In every news article it's described something along the lines of:
'FSD Beta does not make your car self-driving. It is adaptive cruise control with lane keeping, plus traffic light and stop sign recognition.'
'FSD Beta does not make your car self-driving. It is adaptive cruise control with lane keeping, plus traffic light and stop sign recognition.'
The top number may not mean much, but when your company is losing multi-BILLION dollars a year, then people care. Unless eventually Google sell Waymo to the government who can use tax payer's dollar to run a loss like public transportation, they have to show a path to profitability. Too many companies tries to fly before they can walk. In the EV industry we see Lucid and Rivian being prime examples, losing magnitude of money more than Tesla in the same given execution time line.
Waymo and Cruise are in the same boat. The market is not yet READY for robotaxies, and their products are not yet ready for the masses(due to all the limitations). Cruise gave a total of 2,783 rides per quarter from 300 deployed cars. This is 30 rides per day from 300 cars sitting dormant. This mean 90% of their fully functioning robotaxies are giving out ZERO rides per day! This number needs to X100 just for the demand to be sustainable as a business...however all of these companies continue to expand their business which increases cost. Fly before they can walk.
Tesla is learning how to crawl...it's slow and painful, but it wouldn't tank a business.
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Feedback from a mortgage lender this weekend:
Due to TSLA's volatility recently, and its place in my portfolio, it doesn't count towards garnering a mortgage. Debt-to-income is far more important.
Due to TSLA's volatility recently, and its place in my portfolio, it doesn't count towards garnering a mortgage. Debt-to-income is far more important.
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Tell him you'll check back in in ...... 2 weeks
Google has a money printer, so it is insulated from all of that money-making necessity so far.
Perhaps it is useful instead to compare Google's approach on Waymo versus its megaconstellation effort. Instead of continuing its fledgling satellite effort, they signed over their IP to SpaceX, invested $1 billion for about 10% of the company, and the team leads went over to SpaceX. That investment is more than 10x in about 9 years.
Regarding Waymo, they could have done the same with Tesla. But it seems they had a bit more pride on Waymo and had genuine disagreements with Musk's approaches on the technology.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Happy Spring, folks! May it be a Green one!
Cheers!
Cheers!
It's not the market that's the problem. It's the product.
The main value proposition of autonomous taxis is: (1) cheaper (2) more readily available 24/7.
They don't deliver that yet.
Tell him you'll check back in in ...... 2 weeks
Actually, funny thing, that was her feedback too - basically, wait until March end brokerage/bank statements.
My local utility has started up a VPP pilot program. For now they will buy and install the battery at your home and use it for grid balancing (either your own use or sending to the grid). Apparently it's an LG partnership and they are using their battery backup primarily.
If these kinds of programs are successful and expand then that's just another set of customers for Tesla.
If these kinds of programs are successful and expand then that's just another set of customers for Tesla.
Fair points, but this one. Hmm. I've seen x more interventions that were just fine had the driver relaxed a bit or not be so critical as compared to the way they personally drive.
So I pull my assessment from a Chinese video about 1 month ago comparing about 4-5 Driver Assist systems, Tesla included. Apples to apples, Tesla blew them all away. This speaks loudly to the lead Tesla has over other brands.
So as an investor, I'm sure on this horse way-mo than any other system out there.
That should warn you right off of ARK. They have no idea, no one does but if you dive into ark models it is just monkey crap thrown on a wall.
If you happen to follow Bill Wright (aka Gigagrunt) on twitter
- Bio/description recently switched to "It's gonna be May!"
This may be a hint about timing something important with Tesla...or it might not.
The profile pic also looks to be Justin Timberlake, and a lyrics search for those words returns a song titled "It's gonna be me."
Maybe something there...maybe nothing. Maybe Cybertruck? I'm not clever enough to figure it out. Anybody want to speculate?
- Bio/description recently switched to "It's gonna be May!"
This may be a hint about timing something important with Tesla...or it might not.
The profile pic also looks to be Justin Timberlake, and a lyrics search for those words returns a song titled "It's gonna be me."
Maybe something there...maybe nothing. Maybe Cybertruck? I'm not clever enough to figure it out. Anybody want to speculate?
Recent photo of Giga Nevada shows more work/changes on the existing building.
www.buildingtesla.com
Photo below dated 3/18/2023.
Compare daily satellite images of Tesla production locations
Compare almost daily satellite images of Tesla production locations. Includes drone footage , timelapses and showcases.
Photo below dated 3/18/2023.
These conspiracies never seem to amount to anything but May is the ship date for Burnt Hair.
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