Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

I think a robotaxi will drive at least 500 miles per 24 hour day in the US. =182,500 for 365 days or ~170,000 per year including downtime.

I would assume that there is really only 12 hours of high demand, brokenup in blocks from 6am to midnight. NYC taxi drivers averaged 180 miles per 12 hour shift. I think that's a good number to start with as the services roll out.

 

[SOULPEDL]

With an expected life of twenty years, you need to subtract 5%/year for depreciation. So, net, about a 2% return. But, my numbers are just a WAG with no real-world foundation. Still, does it all add up?

It must literally add up. Otherwise... why is demand accelerating when it's pretty obvious it's NEVER been about climate change and always about $$$ - Sadly.

Here's some math, and it's not even May '23 yet.

 

[jerry33]

(This is regarding the letter you posted nothing in your text)

This is just a pet peeve of mine. I hate when I see people say batteries “Produced” power.

/rant

In Texas, it's legislated that batteries are an energy source--just like fossil fuels. Had batteries been classified as energy storage, it would help consumers (among other things).

 

[ggies07]

Our boy Andrej made the vid! Very odd is not showing up...it's from OpenAI.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I pay about 10c/KWh. I use electricity to heat my house. I'd love to have a solar roof and go "off grid" but spending 100k to do so is not a wise move.

With people "mentally' pencilling in 500B valuations for Tesla energy, I just want to know if those numbers are realistic. Or, are we looking at another solar business. I don't think the business model has been explored enough to come to any conclusions at this point.

I actually had a deposit late last year for a full solar roof, and I already had solar. Then the market happened so I cancelled. But part of my interest was out of guilt, while the other part future proofing and fear of grid failure.

I also have 2 powerwalls - crazy expensive, but we fully understand how it was the smartest move pre-covid. They are holding up quite well, and peace of mind has value. Turns out 1 PW with solar has the best ROI, but I went for 2 so I could start up the AC units without any grid power. So one for money, two for gold.

How does a city put a $ value on substituting a peaker plant for sustainable solutions? The community will thrive faster in those cities and the people will be healthier as a result. You want a dollar figure? That's way beyond my expertise, but I tend to go with my gut feel. (Someday, I will elaborate on just how logical a gut feel really is without even being aware of why we have them or how we arrived at our conclusion.)

 

[JRP3]

I don't see any compelling information here.

In fact, I haven't seen any compelling information on the economics of the Megapacks. (Can't say that I've really been looking.)

Clearly.

1st Year Income From @Tesla Battery In South Australia Equals ⅓ Of Its Cost - CleanTechnica

The Tesla Powerpack installation in South Australia is poised to generate enough income in its first year of operation to pay for one third of its cost. That that, anti-renewable ideologues.

cleantechnica.com

 

[AndrewZ]

Tesla tsunami hits Europe priming for end-of-quarter push

A massive wave of Tesla deliveries is hitting Europe as the automaker engages its infamous end of quarter push.

www.teslarati.com

Sounds like the quarterly push is still happening... Or it's just the result of shipping logistics. It is more efficient to completely fill a ship, and I guess Tesla just sent all their Portugal orders at once.

I’m thinking the quarterly push is now shifting direction as cars are being moved around further to fulfil orders, would guess this is why Europe inventory went from ~5k to ~3k the other day.

 

[nativewolf]

It must literally add up. Otherwise... why is demand accelerating when it's pretty obvious it's NEVER been about climate change and always about $$$ - Sadly.

Here's some math, and it's not even May '23 yet.

View attachment 919868

That is because the early buyers are all looking at very niche markets, frequency stabilization, time shifting to peak demand (which can be a lot more than the $0.10 that he pays in AZ). However what you are seeing is also pent up demand. You'll see the market change in 2 years. My caution would be not to extrapolate future earnings based on current demand. Electrons don't really care too much where they've been caught...they just want to be free. Utility storage will come down to price and risk. Strangely Tesla looks to me like IBM, no one was fired for buying IBM systems and no one is fired for buying a megapack. IBM milked that in a long slow slide to oblivion.

 

[nativewolf]

Clearly.

1st Year Income From @Tesla Battery In South Australia Equals ⅓ Of Its Cost - CleanTechnica

The Tesla Powerpack installation in South Australia is poised to generate enough income in its first year of operation to pay for one third of its cost. That that, anti-renewable ideologues.

cleantechnica.com

That is just super expensive frequency stabilization replacement and high end time shifting though, there isn't much of that to spread around.

 

[UrsS]

Even after years of this discussion - none of the esteemed, resourceful people on this board have provided a single reference to a fund, investor, charity, trust, public investment committee, school PTA or even a financial blogger on YouTube that states they will only make an equity investment in companies that have their debt rated investment grade by two or more CRAs - despite many, many, thousands of said groups publishing their investment criteria on their websites in plain english.

This is the same group that investigated the metallurgy of gigacastings, the benefits and drawbacks of different magnetic field configurations of various electric motors, the raw material export policies of foreign nations that don't publish in English, and arcane tax documentation covering hundreds of thousands of pages.

The investment criteria people are assuming above does not exist - at best there could be a correlation because the factors that cause CRAs to rate company debt investment grade are similar to the criteria that conservative investors are interested in.

It would take a few minutes of googling to prove me wrong with a relevant document from a fund - but I doubt anyone will find an example.

For whatever it's worth: My Broker/Bank (US Bank) does not allow me to buy bonds that are not investment grade.
Although I do not have any documentation for that, you just have to take my word for it.

 

[SOULPEDL]

For whatever it's worth: My Broker/Bank (US Bank) does not allow me to buy bonds that are not investment grade.
Although I do not have any documentation for that, you just have to take my word for it.

Fire sale at US Bank!

 

[JRP3]

That is just super expensive frequency stabilization replacement and high end time shifting though, there isn't much of that to spread around.

Batteries are best suited to meet the most expensive grid demand, until the grid is saturated with backup packs there should be plenty of that demand to capture.

 

[Ogre]

In Texas, it's legislated that batteries are an energy source--just like fossil fuels. Had batteries been classified as energy storage, it would help consumers (among other things).

In my head anyhow, “Producing” electricity is the act of turning something into an end product. In the case of power, it’s turning (sunlight, a lake, a chunk of coal) into the stuff that flows across wires.

A source is any place where you can get power from. Could be a solar panel or it could be a battery. Sort of like cars. Tesla produces cars, but you can source cars from a used car lot just as easily as Tesla.

Meh. I’m splitting hairs here. That’s just the way my brain sees it.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I guess i will be 'that' guy today:

 

[scaesare]

In my head anyhow, “Producing” electricity is the act of turning something into an end product. In the case of power, it’s turning (sunlight, a lake, a chunk of coal) into the stuff that flows across wires.

A source is any place where you can get power from. Could be a solar panel or it could be a battery. Sort of like cars. Tesla produces cars, but you can source cars from a used car lot just as easily as Tesla.

Meh. I’m splitting hairs here. That’s just the way my brain sees it.

Think of it this way: Can that <item> supply energy on it's own without some other same-energy source first supplying it?

Nuclear: Yes
Coal: Yes
Wind: Yes
Solar: Yes

Pumped Hydro: No
Batteries: No
Gravity: No
Flywheels: No

 

[Cosmacelf]

Mark Jacobson recently posted a brief summary comparing batteries to Diablo Canyon nuclear plant on California's grid. Despite what all the folks with stranded coal, natural gas, and nuclear power plant assets are wanting us to believe, the future is batteries, wind, and solar, not their stranded assets that they need us to continue to 'invest' in.

View attachment 919831

Nuclear and batteries do two completely different things. You can’t compare them based on electricity delivered. Where do people think the electricity to charge the batteries comes from? Sure, some from wind and solar but ALSO from nuclear.

 

[Singuy]

LoL. Don't know what's worst for these special geniuses. Bagholding Tsla warrants or bagholding a bunch of rocks.

It Turns Out That JPMorgan Bought the Nickel That Turned Out to Be Stones

JPMorgan Chase owned bags of material kept in a Dutch warehouse that were supposed to contain nickel but turned out to be full of stones, people familiar with the matter said. The London Metal Exchange said last week that sacks thought to hold 54 metric tons of nickel in an unnamed warehouse had [f

www.wsj.com

 

[Ogre]

I guess i will be 'that' guy today:

View attachment 919874

Creeping back up to $200/ share.

What I really want to know is ****where is my V shaped recovery*** this is not any sort of V I've ever drawn. I was promised a V. Where is @TrendTrader007 anyhow? That guy made all sorts of promises then cut out like a snake oil-salesman.

 

[FSDtester#1]

Creeping back up to $200/ share.

What I really want to know is ****where is my V shaped recovery*** this is not any sort of V I've ever drawn. I was promised a V. Where is @TrendTrader007 anyhow? That guy made all sorts of promises then cut out like a snake oil-salesman.

Speaking of that, where is @The Accountant ? Who scared him off?
I miss his input. No offense Ogre.

 

[GOVA]

I pay about 10c/KWh. I use electricity to heat my house. I'd love to have a solar roof and go "off grid" but spending 100k to do so is not a wise move.

With people "mentally' pencilling in 500B valuations for Tesla energy, I just want to know if those numbers are realistic. Or, are we looking at another solar business. I don't think the business model has been explored enough to come to any conclusions at this point.

I hear this exact point from ICE driving folks for around 15 years. Yea, I could get that 80K (~AD2014 ) Tesla S, but my used Corolla was 3K and drives fine for $50 per month.

The hard part has been - it is true on paper and very hard to argue.

Today I see 100x more Teslas every day.