Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

Funny you say that, but in many ways fancy analog watches are like ICE with constantly shrinking market and mind share. Eventually used only by hobbyists who don't mind the additional cost and maintenance.

My dad has a big collection of stupidly priced watches but I don't think he's bought a new one or worn them much since getting an apple watch every year (made in a watch factory in China).

I used to wear a self winding mechanical watch, then stopped using it with smartphones on the rise but now I too wear a smart watch made in China.

You are right about the overall trend but The market for expensive swiss watches has never been better.
Same way, you can expect Ferrari to continue to do very well as ICE disappear

 

[Captkerosene]

I have been reading a lot of fuzz about Tesla's needs for ads.

The more I think about it, the less it makes sense.

Don't get me wrong, I am actually in the camp of Tesla doing some informercial to promote EV and killing some FUDs.
However, I don't think ads are an effective way to spend money right now.

Before they spend a few hundred million on a marketing budget, they can spend that on smaller Gigas (Megas?!) to serve some specific markets where tariff makes EVs very expensive. From an investor perspective, I think it makes more sense. Tesla has more demand than what it can cater. The only people not buying Tesla is because it's not within their budget.

Yes, I get that Model Y/3 are now either in line or below the average selling price of a vehicle. But we need to see the bigger picture. It's not about just those "rich" in highly developed economies like US/CA/EU/CN... etc. It's about those who need/want a car but can't afford a Tesla. If there's a Tesla in 2x,000 or even 1x,000 range, it will cater to an entirely different market segment.

Put it into a perspective, everyone would love to have a Rolex... but it's Casio and Swatch that sell the most watches. Heck... even a no-name watch factory in China probably ships more watch that PP and Rolex combined.

And as for bringing more awareness... seriously... Elon dropped 44 billion to buy Twitter. If that's not big enough of an advertisement expense and brand awareness, I don't know what is. Tesla is synonymous to EVs. And everyone who uses Twitter, who became aware that Elon bought Twitter, will surely know or become aware about Tesla.

Run a "Not a Tesla ad" ad. Never show a Tesla or say the name "Tesla." Show pictures of and gush about our competitors EVs. Educate buyers as to their benefits.

 

[2daMoon]

Just saw this and thought the TMCers might get a charge out of watching the latest from The Limiting Factor
Summary: Sodium is unlikely to be used in vehicles until later in the decade, then, only for the low cost/low range vehicles. Its predominant application will be well suited for storage.

 

[Olle]

I read plenty about Tesla lowering prices.

But I never seem to read anything about them raising prices. Hmmmmm.

Tesla Car Price History

2024 2024 History 2024 Trim,Max Range (EPA),Top Speed,0-60 Acc.,Max Tow Capacity (US),Pre-2024 Intro. Price,2023 EOY Price,Intro of M-3 Highland,M-3 LR $1K Increase,M-Y RWD & LR $1K "Temp" Price Cut,M-3 LR $0.5K Price Increase,M-3 LR $0.25K Price Increase,End M-Y RWD & LR "Temp" Price Cut,M-Y E...

docs.google.com

Thanks to @

01101001​

One interesting pattern in that table is that the Performance versions have larger drops than base models from their introductory price to now:

• Plaid $120k -> $105k,
• 3P ___$78k -> $53k (wow)

while the base models are mostly constant or slightly up from intro price to now:

• 3RWD $37k - > $42k
• YLR __$51k -> $53k

That's the Halo Effect at work for us! Car enthusiasts pining for the newest fastest car years before they're even released and pay a premium to get it early. Then once they've been on the road for half a decade everybody else is like; I rode in/heard of/saw that super hot Tesla, I wan't one! and so more base model demand is created and the price stays high or goes up, for years. Part of the genius of Tesla is that they don't give the Performance models large amounts of bling, so the everyone else can feel that their base car is just as hot and worth a premium. But there are still small details that only the enthusiasts can see, so they know that they have the Real McCoy. Nobody else needs to know, which is a big relief, especially if the car can be seen at client's offices and such. Brilliant when you think about it.

Btw, The 2016 pre refresh P_L models if I recall, had an even more pronounced drop when including the options that later became standard, from around $150k at the start to around $100k at the end of the run.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Inflation comes in cool and market still red, go figure

 

[Cosmacelf]

Yeah the main problem is that Legacy auto offers big discounts to the leasing companies, or idiotic residual value.

This is, of course, not a sustainable strategy. There are plenty of leasing companies that offer Tesla’s however, it just depends on which one your company has a contract with.

It’s a way of dumping excess inventory without reducing retail prices. Basically, they have different prices for different markets within the same country. Many companies and industries do this. Tesla may end up doing this too at some point when they actually do have a demand problem, although the company seems to be nimble enough to deal with matching production/demand in other ways.

 

[AndrewZ]

Inflation comes in cool and market still red, go figure

Markets are still pricing in (IMO) ridiculously unrealistic rate cuts, this was the move over a week last month

https://imgur.com/p94TG4x

 

[Krugerrand]

I wonder what discount Tesla would get to advertise on Twitter if any.

None. Elon is pretty consistent in this regard. Tesla would pay what everyone else does on equivalency.

 

[Krugerrand]

Inflation comes in cool and market still red, go figure

Because now obviously recession.

Anecdotally; talking with general contractor recently as mountain building recommences soon - suppliers not stocking any but the very most common items and then stocking in smaller quantities, everything else not common but not rare is order only, oddball items are hurry up and wait who knows how long. Labor market is for . Still huge shortage of good trades and crafts workers, shortage of crappy workers. On this note, us old geezers agreed there simply aren’t enough young people showing interest or training in blue collar jobs and trades and in another decade or so if robots don’t exist for manual labor, we’re all in deep do-do. Definitely some building going on but seems to be trending towards smaller projects or big mountain projects - not much in between.

 

[Curt Renz]

Politico - yesterday afternoon:
Who’s thrilled by electric cars? The trend that could help or hurt Biden’s climate agenda.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Because now obviously recession.

shortage of crappy workers.

There will never be a shortage of crappy workers, no matter how bad the economy is

 

[Krugerrand]

There will never be a shortage of crappy workers, no matter how bad the economy is

You’d think, but really there aren’t even crappy workers available; shortage of warm bodies.

 

[Hiline]

I'd rather buy a well used CRT View attachment 927490 than an flatscreen for 2-3 years. Jokes aside. Does anybody remember the resale value of those once flatscreen hit 50% market share. Hint: not very much.

But in absolute value depending on what ICE you are talking, you might be correct. Let's say you buy an ICE for $15k that goes to $0 in three years that's less than a Tesla for $50k that goes to $30k. Fuel, maintenance and repairs could skew the equation though.

Are they? Then why are you advocating for increasing their price through advertising?

Please name any $15k ICE that you believe will go to $0 in 3 years.

Teslas are expensive to the average consumer in terms of upfront cost. A Model 3 is more expensive than most compact cars - yes, I know comparing a Model 3 to the base trim is comparing apples to oranges, but the fact is that someone looking to buy a new compact car with a $25k budget would not be able to afford a Tesla. Tesla is not targeting the average consumer though, and nor should they. At this stage, they are trying to sell to individuals who are willing to pay more ($35k+) for premium features, and marketing is effective for targeting a specific customer segment. Raising awareness and interest from target customers will help Tesla make more profit and fund future expansion plans. There is a lot of potential profit to capture from wealthier customers before Tesla needs to move down the demand curve.

 

[willow_hiller]

The Say Technologies Q&A is live for Q1 Earnings Call: Say

 

[phantasms]

The Say Technologies Q&A is live for Q1 Earnings Call: Say

I searched "Roadster" and upvoted all of them. #selfish

 

[TN Mtn Man]

NPR's editorial policy is much less skewed by government money than Koch money.

Just how much does the Koch family donate to NPR? Their funding is estimated at 25% from taxpayers, when factoring all sources (many of which themselves are taxpayer funded).

 

[betstarship]

"It concluded that all renewable energy sources and nuclear power combined represented a 39% share of global generation last year, with solar's share rising by 24% and wind by 17% from the previous year."

Wind and solar hit record 12% of global power generation last year

Wind and solar energy represented a record 12% of global electricity generation last year, up from 10% in 2021, a report on Wednesday found.

www.reuters.com

 

[InDaClub]

The Say Technologies Q&A is live for Q1 Earnings Call: Say

I hope the 'Tesla Insurance Update' question gets enough votes.

 

[larmor]

The Say Technologies Q&A is live for Q1 Earnings Call: Say

Solar roof update? and OEM roof installation option for new home builds?

 

[GOVA]

The Beeb has the full interview now:
At The Beeb