Depends where the car is located, the metal mass and if there is a cash for clunkers program at the time. According to
Scrap Car Value Calculator , The average value for mid-size cars is between $150 to $300. If the rounding increment exceeds scrap value, let's say $1000, the value would then be defined as 0. With that definition, any obsolete tech goes to zero, be it a steam locomotive, a thick TV or an ICE car, that's obvious.
What I am unsure of is the time, since obsolescence is driven by a confluence of many forces, like swells in the ocean that suddenly roll together into a big wave when you don't expect it. Gas cars are already dead in e.g. Norway. That doesn't matter in America because the global used car market can soak up Norwegian oversupply without as much as a ripple on the surface. When continental forces get in motion it will look a bit different. Continental swells in confluence right now are:
- Chinese dealers stuffed with millions of brand new unsold ICE cars. Price spiral approaching 0. Used cars might already be at 0 when people know they can get a new one for near 0. Neither did the auto OEMs see it coming in China, nor will they see it when it now happens in Europe and soon in the US.
- In Europe, BEV share is hurdling toward 50% right now. Awfully close to a thick TV vs flatscreen moment.
- One possible outcome is that tens of millions of unsold ICE cars in China and Europe get re-certified and shipped to the US to re-capture at least some of the value.
- ICE manufacturers inside the US coming out of supply chain issues might ramp up ICE production at the exact same time. These three factors could bring new ICE prices near 0 this year and thereby used ICE cars to 0. It's also possible the Chinese government will bail out the ICE industry one last time and none of this chain reaction will take place, at least not this year. I can't imagine it taking longer than five though, so thought three years was a good middle ground for our ICE to hit 0.
These things are happening at the moment and will surely change unexpectedly. All scenarios lead to one thing though: ICE farting out its final puff of smoke.
After the first swell hits and ICE consumers have once tasted the sale of their own car for $0, possibly under bank reposession, they won't buy another one. If in doubt, ask any manufacturer of thick TVs what price they were fetching once LCD had taken hold.
