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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If anything is going to Osborne Y sales I think it would be people waiting for HW 4.0 and the 48V architecture to be used first in Cybertruck. For me personally I'm waiting for those two things before upgrading my Y.
Tesla vehicles are constantly improving (while at the same time streamlining and removing features like sunroof, radar, USS, turn signal/drive stalks, etc). When you say I am just waiting for XXXX to be on the new Model but by the time the car comes out with it there will be something else new on the horizon.

Model Y as example since your sig says you have a 2020.... "I'm just waiting for USB C/Wireless charging....I'm just waiting for heated steering wheel.....I'm just waiting for acoustic glass -> Im just waiting for door panel continuation of dash --> I'm just wating for Ryzen MCUZ ---> I'm just waiting for Li-Ion 12v battery ----> I'm just waiting for rear parcel shelf".

HW 4.0 and 48v is released to Model Y and then there are rumors of 500 mile pack that charges to full in 10 minutes so then you wait for that......It never ends, there will always be something on the horizon.
 
Model 3 will never be available with factory tinted rear windows here. Laws prohibit tint on passenger cars. Only trucks and SUVs can have window tint.
NY says windows can be tinted to block 30% of light, rear window can be fully tinted if the car has 2 side mirrors:

 
If you consider the going rate to be too high there, why not buy another Tesla and you rent it out for what you consider a reasonable rate and see how that works out?

For the same reason I made that post. If Hertz or anyone else increases supply of Tesla rentals in my market the rental price will drop drastically.

I don't know about your business strategy but I'm not in the habit of making investments that are likely to fail.

I don't say to myself "hmm, a large corporation is likely to change the supply demand ratio any day now, I should get in front of that and lose money when they do".
 
If anything is going to Osborne Y sales I think it would be people waiting for HW 4.0 and the 48V architecture to be used first in Cybertruck. For me personally I'm waiting for those two things before upgrading my Y.

To be honest, those aren't enough to Osborne sales. They're well past depending on people who're into the details. If anything, they depend more now on people who don't have the details, because people who have the details are more likely to be able to make a non-Tesla alternative work.

I think Osborneing can now only really come from more basic stuff like price and range.

PS Yesterday we went for lunch at a popular breakfast/lunch place where I live. There was an S, and a Gen 1 Volt so our Kona made it 3 proper plug-ins in a lot of up to maybe 30 cars. We are a bit of a special case, so it could just be the season, but still, it's something I noted.
 
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For the same reason I made that post. If Hertz or anyone else increases supply of Tesla rentals in my market the rental price will drop drastically.

I don't know about your business strategy but I'm not in the habit of making investments that are likely to fail.

I don't say to myself "hmm, a large corporation is likely to change the supply demand ratio any day now, I should get in front of that and lose money when they do".
The point I was trying to lead towards was "If you think that will happen, why do you think it hasn't happened already?" The SR M3 is readily available, so Tesla is not likely the limiting factor. Do you think that Hertz or others simply are too busy with adding Teslas to other locations and can't do this one additional location at the same time? Are there other factors in Knoxville which make it fall lower on Hertz's list than the locations where Hertz is adding Teslas to their inventory mix? Or what data might Hertz have about the car rental market that has led them to not put Teslas there (at least yet)?

Also, side note ... I checked both the Knoxville airport and the Knoxville Clinton HLE Hertz locations for a midweek July 18 - 20 or July 25 - 27 rental, and the lowest rate at either location was a Ford Focus or similar for $65.31/day ($154.98 total) if paid in advance, $72.75/day ($171.73 total) if paid at time of rental, either location either week. Hence, it would be quite surprising to me if Hertz introduced Teslas to that car rental market below $75 - $80 per day, regardless of what Hertz may be renting Teslas for in other competitive car rental markets.
 
NY says windows can be tinted to block 30% of light, rear window can be fully tinted if the car has 2 side mirrors:

In Ontario, any used car changing owners requires a safety inspection.

One item in that safety inspection checklist is essentially “no aftermarket tint allowed on front side windows”.

We just ran into this situation when disposing of my dads vehicle after he passed last March; the dealership installed tinting had to be removed to pass the safety inspection.
 
Thoughts on solar and storage...

My home was built in 2018 and I purchased it from another family in 2020. They had around a 12Kw array installed on the roof and its been pretty amazing how much value its added to me personally, but I never actually went through the process of purchasing it other than in the acquisition of my home. For my job (I am an IT engineer) I went on a sales call with a local utility and the person I was talking with said that in our region based off the rates customers pay there is really no scenario where solar was worth the price. We have around $.11/KWh here and he's right, it's too cheap....I happened to find the invoice from the prior owner and they paid just under 50K (before 33% ITC) for the system in 2019. I have a model 3 and a Y today and based off my utilization it would take me just under 12-15 years at our utilization to be at price parity. In the process of this conversation I told the table I have a 12Kw array I inherited from the prior owner and its been great....to which I was asked what it cost and if I had to purchase it myself would I do it all over again....

I had never considered this question in 3 years of owning this home because frankly I dont need to. But I paused much longer than I normally do to these types of questions... I answered that I would do it for two reasons. 1. I like being independent from a regulated monopoly. I hate the power they hold in state government and their commitment to coal and NG. 2. I can say without pause I have done everything I can do to limit my families carbon footprint. My kids are young, they only know what electric cars are like (home charing, super charging, etc). They recognize we have a power plant on our roof and it powers the cars. They love it, and as an engineer I get to explain things to them because they are interested.

TSLA as a stock has me primed to make fun choices in life of doing whatever job I want to do regardless of pay. About a year ago today I signed up at a local community college to take courses to become a residential electrician. I've put in many breakers, circuits, wired my own house, and around a half dozen EV outlets over the last 5 years....I like the work and it's rewarding. In speaking with my instructor my county has DOZENs of open jobs for just the local electrician companies. This is leading to jobs having months long lead times and much higher costs for everything EV outlets, solar, etc. I reached out to the company that did my installation and asked them what my house would cost today to install the same output of solar and it was 60K. But the interesting part is the actual materials portion was 50% lower than when the prior owners put it in. Unless more people see the value in doing hands on work, the goals we as a society have set are going to be impossible to reach.

Ok...I promise I am wrapping this up....

In looking at the new panels we are getting close to 700w/panel in 2024 time range. I have 39 panels over 4 roof sections today. if I had the company use these panels it would be 16 and take up 2 roof sections. So my hope in the coming years is that panel density keeps going up, so less panels needed, less install cost, quicker ROI, etc. We also need LFP batteries to come out cheap enough that even in my state it becomes an asset. In the mean time we need more people to enter the trades ASAP. I wish part of the IRA was some type of school or personal incentive to work in power generation. It's amazing to me that oil roughnecks in Texas routinely make 100K/year and people who run the wires we all depend on make 18-25/hour....or roughly the same as a fork lift driver at Home Dept. Also electricians have to work as an apprentice for 4 years. So even if I wanted to make a life change I have to commit 800 hours of my life to become a journeyman and start my own company......necessary, but crazy.

Happy mothers day.
 
I disagree. Buying ads to "buy their silence" is the same as caving to a spoiled child every time they throw a temper tantrum. It's wrong-and rewards bad behavior, and also prevents the media from learning from their childish attacks and growing up.
I agree - but you have to select your priorities and choose your battles. You can't boil the ocean.

Tesla also does a lot of bad things I can say they shouldn't be doing - like doing business with fascists countries that suppress individual liberties.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: Acroyear
Yonhap news - this morning:
Samsung head meets Tesla CEO Musk in U.S.

Excerpt:

...Industry sources said Samsung and Tesla have been seeking partnerships in developing next-generation IT technologies, including chips for fully autonomous cars.

The latest meeting may pave the way for the two companies to expand their partnership in the automotive chip sectors, industry watchers said...
 
If you camp, have older not so flexible, passengers, or use child seats, the X is da bomb. It's also more comfortable.
And waaay more quiet, too. Visibility is also waay better compared to my Y. I just drove a brand new X at a Tesla showroom in Phoenix a couple months ago and was blown away, I had no idea what I was missing, vastly superior to my Y. It's just a bit too hard for me to justify the purchase at the moment since in terms of usable interior space and range compared to my Y it's not worth it for me personally. But my god what a fabulous vehicle!

That being said, there's been some chatter recently on TMC about Tesla discontinuing the S and X. All I can add is that if you've owned a 3 or Y for any amount of time, and then hop into a new X, I'm pretty sure you will be blown away. Don't get me wrong, I love my Y, it is superior to any gas car I've ever owned, but the X is on a whole other level. People who say Tesla should get rid of S and X I don't believe have ever driven one. They are both so much more luxurious, spacious and quiet than their 3 and Y siblings. I (selfishly) hope Tesla does not discontinue the S/X line.
Tesla vehicles are constantly improving (while at the same time streamlining and removing features like sunroof, radar, USS, turn signal/drive stalks, etc). When you say I am just waiting for XXXX to be on the new Model but by the time the car comes out with it there will be something else new on the horizon.

Model Y as example since your sig says you have a 2020.... "I'm just waiting for USB C/Wireless charging....I'm just waiting for heated steering wheel.....I'm just waiting for acoustic glass -> Im just waiting for door panel continuation of dash --> I'm just wating for Ryzen MCUZ ---> I'm just waiting for Li-Ion 12v battery ----> I'm just waiting for rear parcel shelf".

HW 4.0 and 48v is released to Model Y and then there are rumors of 500 mile pack that charges to full in 10 minutes so then you wait for that......It never ends, there will always be something on the horizon.
Agree 100%. I'm not saying the vehicles aren't constantly improving, I'm just saying some things matter to me and some things don't, everybody is different in this regard. Heated steering wheels, wireless charging, acoustic glass, etc, are not high on my list. But more range, more capable FSD, and 48V architecture are, that's all I'm saying. Yeah in terms of constant improvements in efficiency, safety, UI, manufacturing, fast charging, etc, Tesla is far ahead of the competition. In any case, let me be clear that I'm not worried about the Osborne effect for Tesla, and I'm not arguing that there is a problem or there will be a problem.
To be honest, those aren't enough to Osborne sales. They're well past depending on people who're into the details. If anything, they depend more now on people who don't have the details, because people who have the details are more likely to be able to make a non-Tesla alternative work.

I think Osborneing can now only really come from more basic stuff like price and range.

PS Yesterday we went for lunch at a popular breakfast/lunch place where I live. There was an S, and a Gen 1 Volt so our Kona made it 3 proper plug-ins in a lot of up to maybe 30 cars. We are a bit of a special case, so it could just be the season, but still, it's something I noted.
Agree 100%. If anything is going to Osborne sales it'll be price and range. That's what got me into a 2019 SR M3 in the first place: a price I could afford, with a range that could do cross-country trips. One car that could do it all at an affordable price.
 
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And waaay more quiet, too. Visibility is also waay better compared to my Y. I just drove a brand new X at a Tesla showroom in Phoenix a couple months ago and was blown away, I had no idea what I was missing, vastly superior to my Y. It's just a bit too hard for me to justify the purchase at the moment since in terms of usable interior space and range compared to my Y it's not worth it for me personally. But my god what a fabulous vehicle!

That being said, there's been some chatter recently on TMC about Tesla discontinuing the S and X. All I can add is that if you've owned a 3 or Y for any amount of time, and then hop into a new X, I'm pretty sure you will be blown away. Don't get me wrong, I love my Y, it is superior to any gas car I've ever owned, but the X is on a whole other level. People who say Tesla should get rid of S and X I don't believe have ever driven one. They are both so much more luxurious, spacious and quiet than their 3 and Y siblings. I (selfishly) hope Tesla does not discontinue the S/X line.

Agree 100%. I'm not saying the vehicles aren't constantly improving, I'm just saying some things matter to me and some things don't, everybody is different in this regard. Heated steering wheels, wireless charging, acoustic glass, etc, are not high on my list. But more range, more capable FSD, and 48V architecture are, that's all I'm saying. Yeah in terms of constant improvements in efficiency, safety, UI, manufacturing, fast charging, etc, Tesla is far ahead of the competition. In any case, let me be clear that I'm not worried about the Osborne effect for Tesla, and I'm not arguing that there is a problem or there will be a problem.

Agree 100%. If anything is going to Osborne sales it'll be price and range. That's what got me into a 2019 SR M3 in the first place: a price I could afford, with a range that could do cross-country trips. One car that could do it all at an affordable price.
I don't believe the S X discontinue rumor for even a second. If Tesla removes them (without a similar replacement), people go back to buying ICE Merceds and BMW.
 
Soros fund dumped all their Tesla shares, still hold some other EV companies


Soros also dumped 75% of his Rivian stake as well over the past several months, according to this article from The Street:
https://www.thestreet.com/technology/rivian-burns-billionaire-george-soros

From the article: "During the first quarter ending March 31, Soros, through his hedge fund, Soros Fund Management, sold 10.77 million Rivian shares, or 75% of his stake, holding on to 3.58 million shares. The reduced stake was worth $55.4 million on March 31, but has lost further value, as Rivian's stock price is down 16.6% since the end of the quarter. Soros' position is currently valued at $46.2 million."
 
IMHO, it's juvenile to insist on noise.

The Telegraph - Saturday:
Why the great British sports car is losing the race to go electric

Excerpt:

..“I think that the main thing is the noise,” says Hugo Holder, a 15-year racing enthusiast who owns a Caterham and is a director of the Classic Sports Car Club in Wiltshire.

For many weekend racers or Formula One fans, the roar of the engine elicits a thrill that is hard to match. A barely audible hum from an electric engine simply doesn’t cut it...
 
Well documented by a Swiss economic research team in 2011: (note that this study was done pre-Tesla)



Wall.e doesn't like to leave things to chance. 'They' are State Street Corporation, Vanguard Group, BlackRock, FMR, Paulson, Capital World Investor, JP Morgan, Northern Trust Corporation, Fairhome ... the list is short but extinguished.

Word.
I am strongly opposed to short selling and the market makers abuse of their ability to do naked shorting.
However, in the quoted post there is mishmash of custodians, mutual fund operators and an odd abusive housing speculator.
These are in some cases abusive, but they are not the market maker culprits that are the core problem that produces high volatility, specifically of TSLA.
Securities custody is an arcane business highly concentrated but only profitable with very large scale. It comes in multiple varieties named, ;custody, global custody, master trust and a couple more. Those are NOT the bad actors, although three of the US' largest five custodians are also 'universal' banks with major operations in many areas; in order, J P Morgan, Citi, BNP Paribas. All three of those have grown massively, in large part by acquiring failing institutions.

As for the Debora MacKenzie/Andy Coghlan expertise, I would pay attention to their comments on infectious diseases and epidemiology from a non-technical popular perspective. They have zero credibility on global finance. It does a disservice to TSLA investors to repeat the notion that global finance runs the world.
As TSLAinvestors we have enough problems dealing with serious violations of ethics, that should be, but mostly are not, illegal.

Specifically the problem is market makers that can act with complete self interest violating interest of their own clients. We need not condemn the entire world when we could well focus on he real culprits, such as GTS (The largest NYSE market maker), Citadel, DRW (for options) etc. here is a list of several both US and elsewhere. For Tesla, of course, the biggest problems are probably facilitated by Citadel and DRW.

In truth note that most market makers have names you've never heard. They do have a highly useful function since they supply the shares and derivatives to buy and sell, an essential function. The problem, as has been documented repeatedly is that the US rules are written by the market makers themselves, and most of the operative controls are administered by the Depository Trust Company, itself originally serving custodial banks, but with administrative rules to protect against abuses. It worked marvelously until all the regulations changed, culminating in absurdities such as the infamous Madoff Rule.

Really, as TSLA investors we should understand the reality rather than global conspiracy theories.
Elon Musk understands all this, hence his famous SEC description. In other words 'the fox is guarding the henhouse'.
 
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IMHO, it's juvenile to insist on noise.

The Telegraph - Saturday:
Why the great British sports car is losing the race to go electric

Excerpt:

..“I think that the main thing is the noise,” says Hugo Holder, a 15-year racing enthusiast who owns a Caterham and is a director of the Classic Sports Car Club in Wiltshire.

For many weekend racers or Formula One fans, the roar of the engine elicits a thrill that is hard to match. A barely audible hum from an electric engine simply doesn’t cut it...
Well, it might also be considered juvenile to race cars in the first place. 🤷🏻‍ But if the noise is the hold back, just program the car to make noise.
 
Tesla vehicles are constantly improving (while at the same time streamlining and removing features like sunroof, radar, USS, turn signal/drive stalks, etc). When you say I am just waiting for XXXX to be on the new Model but by the time the car comes out with it there will be something else new on the horizon.

Model Y as example since your sig says you have a 2020.... "I'm just waiting for USB C/Wireless charging....I'm just waiting for heated steering wheel.....I'm just waiting for acoustic glass -> Im just waiting for door panel continuation of dash --> I'm just wating for Ryzen MCUZ ---> I'm just waiting for Li-Ion 12v battery ----> I'm just waiting for rear parcel shelf".

HW 4.0 and 48v is released to Model Y and then there are rumors of 500 mile pack that charges to full in 10 minutes so then you wait for that......It never ends, there will always be something on the horizon.
I'm holding out for 600mile model Y that charges as you drive/solar roof and never need to charge because every minute exposed to partial sunlight yields 10 miles in range. Full FSD where i can sleep in the back and it will politely wake me up when i reach my destination. All doing it while it entertains the kids with steam video games/you tube.

In the meantime, i will just enjoy my 2022 MYP :)
 
Tesla vehicles are constantly improving (while at the same time streamlining and removing features like sunroof, radar, USS, turn signal/drive stalks, etc). When you say I am just waiting for XXXX to be on the new Model but by the time the car comes out with it there will be something else new on the horizon.

Model Y as example since your sig says you have a 2020.... "I'm just waiting for USB C/Wireless charging....I'm just waiting for heated steering wheel.....I'm just waiting for acoustic glass -> Im just waiting for door panel continuation of dash --> I'm just wating for Ryzen MCUZ ---> I'm just waiting for Li-Ion 12v battery ----> I'm just waiting for rear parcel shelf".

HW 4.0 and 48v is released to Model Y and then there are rumors of 500 mile pack that charges to full in 10 minutes so then you wait for that......It never ends, there will always be something on the horizon.
There’s Tesla customers and then there are TSLA customers. I want to get the best price for my car purchase and wait for the best features. I also want to wait for TSLA at $80 because Chicken effin Genius told me so. :)

Over analysis leads to paralysis for both Tesla car purchases and TSLA stock purchases.