Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Ha! My first real motorcycle was an S90 Honda when I was 12, so I learned the metric system before the imperial. I was kinda dismayed when I had to learn the fractions or an inch measurement when I moved into cars because the metric system just makes sense, in all perspectives. To this day I would not be surprised if imperial tools are used on metric nuts and bolts most of the time by my Dad's generation, whereas I use metric tools on imperial a lot of the time.

I hope the generations coming into the workforce force the issue as we're seriously at a disadvantage in the US. We even use both systems at the same time! Ordered tires lately? Remember the old alphabetic listings for tire width? The current method is far more accurate and easier to understand (even if wheel sizes are in inches)

There was a manufacturing advantage to the alphabetic marking. Tire sizes are nominal, so you can have several different mold sizes and by specing a different design rim width you can use tires from a different size mold mark them the same size if there is a shortage of a particular size (Molds take time to make and are expensive). To a small extent you can do this with metric sizes, but there is not nearly the latitude. Of course there's also the idiocy of metric and P-metric sizing, but that's another subject.

 

[winfield100]

Ha! My first real motorcycle was an S90 Honda when I was 12, so I learned the metric system before the imperial. I was kinda dismayed when I had to learn the fractions or an inch measurement when I moved into cars because the metric system just makes sense, in all perspectives. To this day I would not be surprised if imperial tools are used on metric nuts and bolts most of the time by my Dad's generation, whereas I use metric tools on imperial a lot of the time.

I hope the generations coming into the workforce force the issue as we're seriously at a disadvantage in the US. We even use both systems at the same time! Ordered tires lately? Remember the old alphabetic listings for tire width? The current method is far more accurate and easier to understand (even if wheel sizes are in inches)

somewhere out there may _still_ be a Furd Pinto with a metric bolt and ?SAE?(non metric) bolt holding down the carburator as the tap & die set I had was all I had and needed a replacement bolt

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I saw some musings about such patterns on Twitter and went to the Google machine to see if there was precedence for it, then can correlate with the inventory trackers

View attachment 952961

I don't get the negative connotation though, there was a whack of inventory that disappeared and delivery numbers that seemingly nobody had anticipated so it feels like it all makes sense

Uh almost my entire post history in this thread is posting pessimistic stuff, that's my purpose here.

But you don't want to understand where these numbers came from?

Delivery numbers that nobody anticipated?

Seriously? How about go through my posts a week ago where I said it was entirely possible that deliveries were going to come in much higher than consensus because of the production rates that Berlin and Austin had achieved in the quarter.

There’s no need to read into the inventory tracking because it’s not an official inventory counter from Tesla. It’s a guy making assumptions and interpreting about how Tesla lists inventory and extrapolating from there. The reason there’s negative connotation is because you’re making it seem like the only way it was possible was fleet sales and then you link to an article from nearly a year ago. There’s no correlation. Tesla simply had/has much better demand that certain Twitter profiles made it seem like

 

[winfield100]

FTD's since the 3:1 split thru mid June (aug 2022 to now) complete file included

 

[2daMoon]

FTD's since the 3:1 split thru mid June (aug 2022 to now) complete file included
View attachment 952963

Those are the Wall Street version of STDs, right?

/s

 

[EVMeister]

Damn... I thought I was up to date with all TLAs here.

Fear Transmitted Disease?
Fortunes To Date?
Files To Delete?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Damn... I thought I was up to date with all TLAs here.

Fear Transmitted Disease?
Fortunes To Date?
Files To Delete?

FTD. Failure to Deliver. An indication of naked short selling. But without more analysis, I have no idea if the numbers shown are significant. Do other stocks have similar numbers? Is this just data noise? Did it move the stock?

 

[AndrewZ]

Delivery numbers that nobody anticipated?

Seriously? How about go through my posts a week ago where I said it was entirely possible that deliveries were going to come in much higher than consensus because of the production rates that Berlin and Austin had achieved in the quarter.

There’s no need to read into the inventory tracking because it’s not an official inventory counter from Tesla. It’s a guy making assumptions and interpreting about how Tesla lists inventory and extrapolating from there. The reason there’s negative connotation is because you’re making it seem like the only way it was possible was fleet sales and then you link to an article from nearly a year ago. There’s no correlation. Tesla simply had/has much better demand that certain Twitter profiles made it seem like

It sounds like you don't really have a basis for refuting this aside from thinking that fleet sales at the end of quarter detract from the story or something rather than help explain numbers that caught basically everyone off guard and should be explainable (+ need to be explained).

There are ways of figuring this out down the road if it isn't a topic in the earnings call, Hertz for example produces regulatory filings and the latest suggested they still had outstanding orders for ~50,000 Teslas as of the end of 2022.


Tesla broke $400/share the week after news of the Hertz deal broke, so I'm really not getting why this would be a bad thing

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - this afternoon:
Is DeSantis Igniting A Firestorm With Elon Musk Over Florida Electric Vehicle Bill Veto?

Excerpt:
...Despite near-unanimous bipartisan support and passage by Florida lawmakers, DeSantis vetoed a bill that would have increased the state's purchase of electric vehicles...

 

[Unpilot]

I just did a deep dive/in depth analysis of Tesla.

No pretty charts.....just this:

Every year they build more cars and every year they sell more cars. If fact, they are growing around 50% each year.

This will continue until they are the largest car company in the world.

Your welcome.

 

[winfield100]

Damn... I thought I was up to date with all TLAs here.

Fear Transmitted Disease?
Fortunes To Date?
Files To Delete?

@EVMeister

FTD
Failure To Deliver

You are more than welcome to download the ~311 zip files from July, 2010 to mid June 2023
(each around a meg to 1.5 meg, 60 - 80.000 lines more or less)
(prolly bit under 1/2 gigabyte zipped, parse them etc)
(or you can d/l the parsed file from here.)
(for some reason, it's missing ~2.5 months data, or there were 0 FTD's)(highly unlikely)
(11/1/2018 - 1/23/2019)

SEC.gov | Fails-to-Deliver Data

This text file contains the date, CUSIP numbers, ticker symbols, issuer name, price, and total number of fails-to-deliver (i.e., the balance level outstanding) recorded in the National Securities Clearing Corporation's ("NSCC") Continuous Net Settlement (CNS) system aggregated over all NSCC members.

www.sec.gov

 

[SPadival]

Meh. I’m a bit sad mine was cancelled, but as A TSLA hodler and mission fan I’m happy to trust them to do the right thing.

Me too, as I wanted a 6/7 seater for when the in-laws visit us. Tesla gave us a generous AUD $3k off the next 3/Y purchase until October. However, I had already bought a MY.

The right thing is a mini-Cybertruck in 2025 now mind you. No ifs, ands or buts.

Don’t worry. I have that covered

https://twitter.com/x/status/1198711241520242688

 

[GhostSkater]

Thanks, it is indeed an interview I missed! I do wish the interviewers would actually ask detailed questions though. Elon stated that Superchargers were going to deliver 800V. Did he mean current SCs will be retrofitted, or is he talking only about new ones?

I found it interesting that the interviewer asked whether Tesla was going to get into the building heat pump business and Elon totally didn’t answer the question and instead talked about Powerwall. Read what you want to from that.

According to Jason Hughes, V3 Superchargers are 800 V, but now that we learned that there is a 500 V and a 1000 V version of NACS, it probably needs the cable to be replaced

The biggest question for me is, if Tesla will upgrade V3 to 800 V, why they didn't start doing already in new installs? Each day it passes it's more and more chargers that will be needed to be retrofitted

Another possibility is that V3 are 800 V and 500 V of nice can do low 800 V ish, but not 1000 V, which also doesn't make sense

Cybertruck is likely higher voltage, but what does this means? They won't be compatible with existing V3? No way in hell. Or that they have a pack splitting contactors to switch from 400 V to 800 V? Also doesn't make sense because adding complexity isn't the Tesla way

Cybertruck deliveries should start this quarter, there is no time to retrofit enough V3 stations to not make travelling a pain with it, and none of the options above makes much sense, so I'm really curious how it will work

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524113782284378114

 

[15Peter20]

My $0.02 on the RHD S+X... kinda sharing NicoV's opinion that they will restart availability once tooling changes for a new version (which may not be that significantly newer... just different tooling). Also, Tesla has that super-transparent visibility into demand and orders for S+X that none of us have - and maybe there just weren't that many orders for S+X in LHD markets. Teslas are expensive in Australia, and in the UK there are a lot of other brands competing for the wallets of the status-obsessed rich - the UK being the spiritual home to Jaguar, Range Rover, Bentley and Rolls etc. - even if they don't have compelling BEVs they might lower demand for other statements of wealth. Tesla must surely have seen the orders coming in and concluded that it isn't worth it - for this round. I believe they will re-introduce S+X at some point, maybe even as soon as the end of the year. OK maybe that was more than $0.02

My final cancellation notice stated "we will not be building RHD S/X". No glimmer of a future possibility in that statement.

 

[EQC_]

I just did a deep dive/in depth analysis of Tesla.

No pretty charts.....just this:

Every year they build more cars and every year they sell more cars. If fact, they are growing around 50% each year.

This will continue until they are the largest car company in the world.

Your welcome.

Was hoping that this would be the last post in this subforum...it's all we need to know . Alas, more posts continued, so I will still need to check for updates regularly.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Many folks think that Tesla's vehicle production output of 480K vehicles is some sort of upper bound on what was possible during Q2. I'm here to tell you it ain't so: (buckle up)

• Shanghai has demonstrated monthly production capacity ~80K for the past 9 mths
• Giga Shanghai has 3 GA lines: the original Model 3 line and two newer 2 Model Y lines
• the Model 3 line is the oldest, so conservatively it has ~25K/mth capacity
• this is the line which Telsa took down on June 1st for retooling w. "Project Highland"
• ALL the above indicates that Tesla chose to forego ~25K of production in Q2
• if they had chosen to, Tesla could easily have exceeded 500K production in Q2

What are the implications of this? Well, again, it likely means the new Shanghai line:

• will produce >25K extra in H2 vs the old run rate (else why do it?)
• it decreases COGS at an annual rate of -7% (per Pierre Ferragu)
• consumes less physical space due to body shop robots replace w. gigacasting
• allows installation of a 2nd Model 3 Highland line (possibly online by 2024)

What does this mean for 2023H2 Production? Well, let's add it all up:

• 27.5K/mth Model 3 for H2 (to match Model Y output per line)
• 6 mths of production of 3+2Y = ~500K

Does this get us to 2M total production in 2023? Well, it makes it possible. Remains to be seen when Fremont Project Highland comes online, as well as how much production there will be for Cybertruck. Also, the ramp continues for Model Y Production at both Berlin and Austin.

I say we've got a good shot at 2M production in 2023.

Cheers!

 

[Cosmacelf]

According to Jason Hughes, V3 Superchargers are 800 V, but now that we learned that there is a 500 V and a 1000 V version of NACS, it probably needs the cable to be replaced

The biggest question for me is, if Tesla will upgrade V3 to 800 V, why they didn't start doing already in new installs? Each day it passes it's more and more chargers that will be needed to be retrofitted

Another possibility is that V3 are 800 V and 500 V of nice can do low 800 V ish, but not 1000 V, which also doesn't make sense

Cybertruck is likely higher voltage, but what does this means? They won't be compatible with existing V3? No way in hell. Or that they have a pack splitting contactors to switch from 400 V to 800 V? Also doesn't make sense because adding complexity isn't the Tesla way

Cybertruck deliveries should start this quarter, there is no time to retrofit enough V3 stations to not make travelling a pain with it, and none of the options above makes much sense, so I'm really curious how it will work

https://twitter.com/x/status/1524113782284378114

Knowing what we do of Tesla's past practices, it is possible that concurrent with Cybertruck first deliveries, Elon will state that, "Oh, by the way, all V3 Superchargers can pump out 800V", or some large subset of them.

The only other solution that I can see is a split pack contactor arrangement inside the Cybertruck, but I agree, that isn't normally how Tesla rolls.

I'll put my money on option 1 (option 3 of Cybertruck only being able to charge at V4 SCs or, wait for it, CCS via an adapter, just doesn't seem possible!)

 

[Artful Dodger]

My final cancellation notice stated "we will not be building RHD S/X". No glimmer of a future possibility in that statement.

You need a glimmer of hope? Tesla recently switched to International headlights (legal for use in all jurisdictions world-wide). At the time, Elon said this a bigger deal than it seems. Feel free to grasp at the straw that it is to further the goal of a "one-world, one-car" architecture, which necessarily will include rapid conversion from L- to R-hand drive (at least by Service, if not on the Roadside by the User).

We live in hope.

 

[H Mak]

I say we've got a good shot at 2M production in 2023.

Which puts Mercedes and Renault in their sights

 

[GhostSkater]

Knowing what we do of Tesla's past practices, it is possible that concurrent with Cybertruck first deliveries, Elon will state that, "Oh, by the way, all V3 Superchargers can pump out 800V", or some large subset of them.

The only other solution that I can see is a split pack contactor arrangement inside the Cybertruck, but I agree, that isn't normally how Tesla rolls.

I'll put my money on option 1 (option 3 of Cybertruck only being able to charge at V4 SCs or, wait for it, CCS via an adapter, just doesn't seem possible!)

Adding to that

I think V3 handle might be able do 800/1000 V by Tesla standards, but not by industry standards, as in, it's fine for Tesla do on their chargers with their vehicles, and they tested it to be safe

But specially now that NACS is being officially being standardized, there might be some insulation rule that would limit it to lower voltages for others OEMs to use, so this is where the 1000 V version comes in

This is the main difference on the design, that shortest path length from pin to pin and to the exterior where a person can touch

But it might get even better, if V3 can do higher voltages, it's fair to speculate it might be able to do higher power since most of the parts are current limited, and on top of that Elon said in the past V3 chargers would be upgraded/unlocked to 324 kW, still not awesome for Cybertruck pack size but reasonably better

And they might be even higher than that, a V3 could do 500 kW at 800 V if no one else is plugged on the same cabinet or if there is enough spare capacity on the DC bus that links multiple cabinets

Delivery event will be awesome but we might not get that much nerdy tidbits, but when people start testing and figuring this stuff out will be when the fun begins