Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

I’ll take misaligned doors over the misaligned gross margins of lagacy Auto EVs

lagacy implies they're just slow. How about Toyota? Still resisting anything other than token BEV.
Mostly, though, it is a novel and semi-humorous position to ahem so many of us fearing the possibility of 'poor' 15% margins for TSLA this week when the vast majority of OEM's would be rapturous over such margins.

 

[petit_bateau]

Thicker panels less likely to have waves.

Sorry, that's what I said originally and meant to say the second time. So they are putting thicker panels on for mostly cosmetic reasons.

 

[2daMoon]

Sorry, that's what I said originally and meant to say the second time. So they are putting thicker panels on for mostly cosmetic reasons.

Which reasons were demonstrated by beating the door panel with a sledgehammer to show off the cosmetics.

Got it. Thanks for clearing that up.

I was thinking they were making an actual "tough" truck, rather than repeating the design of the thin-skinned offerings from ALL the other manufacturers. Like the door of one, which they also struck with the sledgehammer to impart a striking contrast in regard to how it responded to the blow by denting badly.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Can’t wait for the Munro tear down.

Come to think of it, has anybody ever tried to put a price on the entertainment value of this company?

Or is it just ‘Priceless’

 

[-=buzz=-]

So they are putting thicker panels on for mostly cosmetic reasons.

Only under the premise that an exoskeleton must have zero internal structure and CT therefore is a classic unibody and that, contrary to Teslas claims, adding 4mm of steel sheets to the exterior has zero effect on the structural strength of the car.
So..... unlikely?

 

[SmokyPeat]

Corrosion depends on the particular aluminum alloy. It doesn't appear to affect SpaceX rockets much and my understanding is that it's the same material.

I don't think so. I believe the Cybertruck may share it's 30X SS alloy with Starship. The aluminum alloy used in the Tesla castings is specially formulated for the casting process.

 

[Fred42]

I disagree with his claim that too many batteries are wasted in EVs that will rarely travel long distances as just about everyone needs to occasionally travel long distances. The proposed solution of hybrids for those occasional long distances disregards the complexity and increased cost and maintenance of hybrid cars. It also ignores that many with hybrid plug ins never plug in.

Mazda sold 66 MX-30's 1H23 in the US. People don't want an EV with only enough range to get around town (100 miles EPA). (available only in CA)

2022 Mazda MX-30 Sales Figures

Mazda MX-30 monthly, quarterly, and yearly sales and statistics in the United States. Including data and interactive charts for the latest model year 2022.

carfigures.com

 

[-=buzz=-]

Even if the CT isn't the perfect exoskeleton.
Just look at the leaked pictures.
That's about 10 pieces of metal to create the basic structure of this giant vehicle.
It then gets wrapped in a handful of large steel sheets to complete the exterior shell.

If I remember correctly the Model 3 rear wheel well consists/consisted? of about 130 pieces, per side!

Production engineers and accountants alike should get really exited about these leaks. (And slightly horrified, if they're not working for Tesla )

 

[EQC_]

I disagree with his claim that too many batteries are wasted in EVs that will rarely travel long distances as just about everyone needs to occasionally travel long distances. The proposed solution of hybrids for those occasional long distances disregards the complexity and increased cost and maintenance of hybrid cars. It also ignores that many with hybrid plug ins never plug in.

The biggest issue with the hybrid argument is: they have had their chance, and manufacturers didn't bother to ramp production. That includes Toyota, the biggest hybrid proponent.

Hybrids have been on the global market for over 25 years (Prius in Japan in 1997) and in the US for over 20 years (Prius in 2001), and every manufacturer still produces more basic ICE vehicles than even regular hybrids. The numbers for plug-in hybrids are even more sad.

If my googling is accurate, Toyota sold 2.6 million hybrids globally in 2022. Toyota sold over 10 million vehicles in total in 2022...so after 25 years they are only willing to commit 25% of their production to hybrids. Even Toyota isn't even really trying to push hybrids.

All manufacturers combined was only 2.9 million hybrids, out of 80 million vehicles total sold worldwide in 2022. Under 4%.

Meanwhile, Tesla produced 1.3 million EVs in 2022, will probably hit 1.8-2 million in 2023, and will almost certainly exceed 3 million EVs in 2025.

These numbers should be embarrassing for anybody, especially Toyota, saying hybrids are the solution or that hybrids need more time. Toyota has had 25 years and are only at a 25% hybrid share of their own production. Embarrassing.

Even more cognitively dissonant: Toyota's own materials (their flawed 1:6:90 rule) argue that you can produce 90 hybrids or 6 plug-in hybrids with the batteries required for 1 EV. If that's the case, why didn't or couldn't Toyota secure more battery supply for their hybrids?

Apparently, Toyota's 2.6 million hybrids in 2022 is the equivalent of only 29,000 EV batteries, by their own calculation. Hybridizing the entire Toyota annual production of 10 million cars should only require the battery equivalent of 120,000 EVs, but apparently Toyota can't or won't do it. Tesla puts that many EVs on the road in less than a month.

Continued pushing of hybrids sounds like Toyota admitting either incompetence or a complete lack of caring enough to try.

By Toyota's math, Tesla securing enough batteries for 1.3 million vehicles in 2022 should have been more than enough for every vehicle sold globally to be a hybrid.

I'd be willing to bet that while Tesla grows their EV production 40+% in 2023, Toyota won't grow their hybrid sales by anywhere near those numbers...all while Toyota and the assorted journalists who fall for Toyota's marketing continue to claim hybrids are the solution.

Hybrids *were* the best solution in 2005 or so...but Toyota and everybody else (due to incompetence or by choice) slow rolled it for too long. Now EVs are readily available, desired, and selling in numbers that the hybrid promoters apparently think are impossible.

Toyota's own marketing really is some strong evidence of how much more capable Tesla is....

 

[elasalle]

Never seen something like this before ...

 

[wtlloyd]

Never seen something like this before ... View attachment 956513

Tesla should just include the stickers in a welcome kit. Demand problem solved!

 

[ZeApelido]

Never seen something like this before ... View attachment 956513

@Pezpunk ?

 

[Curt Renz]

"First CYBERTRUCK Manufactured at GIGA TEXAS"​

Mesbahi - this afternoon:

 

[ReddyLeaf]

The biggest issue with the hybrid argument is: they have had their chance, and manufacturers didn't bother to ramp production. That includes Toyota, the biggest hybrid proponent.

Hybrids have been on the global market for over 25 years (Prius in Japan in 1997) and in the US for over 20 years (Prius in 2001), and every manufacturer still produces more basic ICE vehicles than even regular hybrids. The numbers for plug-in hybrids are even more sad.

If my googling is accurate, Toyota sold 2.6 million hybrids globally in 2022. Toyota sold over 10 million vehicles in total in 2022...so after 25 years they are only willing to commit 25% of their production to hybrids. Even Toyota isn't even really trying to push hybrids.

All manufacturers combined was only 2.9 million hybrids, out of 80 million vehicles total sold worldwide in 2022. Under 4%.

Meanwhile, Tesla produced 1.3 million EVs in 2022, will probably hit 1.8-2 million in 2023, and will almost certainly exceed 3 million EVs in 2025.

These numbers should be embarrassing for anybody, especially Toyota, saying hybrids are the solution or that hybrids need more time. Toyota has had 25 years and are only at a 25% hybrid share of their own production. Embarrassing.

Even more cognitively dissonant: Toyota's own materials (their flawed 1:6:90 rule) argue that you can produce 90 hybrids or 6 plug-in hybrids with the batteries required for 1 EV. If that's the case, why didn't or couldn't Toyota secure more battery supply for their hybrids?

Apparently, Toyota's 2.6 million hybrids in 2022 is the equivalent of only 29,000 EV batteries, by their own calculation. Hybridizing the entire Toyota annual production of 10 million cars should only require the battery equivalent of 120,000 EVs, but apparently Toyota can't or won't do it. Tesla puts that many EVs on the road in less than a month.

Continued pushing of hybrids sounds like Toyota admitting either incompetence or a complete lack of caring enough to try.

By Toyota's math, Tesla securing enough batteries for 1.3 million vehicles in 2022 should have been more than enough for every vehicle sold globally to be a hybrid.

I'd be willing to bet that while Tesla grows their EV production 40+% in 2023, Toyota won't grow their hybrid sales by anywhere near those numbers...all while Toyota and the assorted journalists who fall for Toyota's marketing continue to claim hybrids are the solution.

Hybrids *were* the best solution in 2005 or so...but Toyota and everybody else (due to incompetence or by choice) slow rolled it for too long. Now EVs are readily available, desired, and selling in numbers that the hybrid promoters apparently think are impossible.

Toyota's own marketing really is some strong evidence of how much more capable Tesla is....

ABSOLUTELY!!!!! Nominated for post of merit. Nothing more needs to be said

 

[SPadival]

OT, but I had to post when you mentioned India & Royal Enfield 500s! This is me biking with a couple of Austrian friends I met en route, in Ladakh in the northwest Himalayas. Sublime 5 months backpacking throughout India in 2014 (me at right after bungie-cording my tablet camera to a rock outcrop in 60 KM winds).

View attachment 956225

And this is madness near Chennai! (on the road from Auroville) Happy family scootering on the highway, including mum on the back, holding not the bike but her baby - all without helmets.

View attachment 956224

And lastly, to put it slightly on topic, FSD will be 'solved' when it can manage this! (Kolkota at night):

Ashok is not deterred

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671428377302163456

 

[Xepa777]

This vehicle is meant to be about function, not form. I don't think there was any particular cosmetic result being sought in the design process. In design terms, the goal was to reduce the cost of production by eliminating expensive processes. Maybe you didn't get the memo.

Do you believe adding thick folded stainless steel panels to the framework of simple stamped parts and castings won't increase structural strength significantly over attaching thin, stamped sheet metal? Hmmm.

Do you also believe that it is more economical to cut, then stamp thin panels, paint them and provide processes to handle these delicate parts until installed, than it is to cut and fold thick panels of stainless steel and skip the stamping processes and the paint shop for the exterior?

What sort of corrosion do you expect to have on the aluminum? The biggest concern will be where steel parts may have contact with aluminum, which can be dealt with easily enough.

We'll just have to see how it performs in the crash testing to know if any of the other speculations you have offered hold water.

Perhaps it is only that the Cybertruck isn't the sort of vehicle you would ever buy anyway and you are reaching for reasons to support that point of view.

It's possible for the folded steel structure of teh exterior to create a stronger truck AND still not be considered an "exoskeleton." Your aggressive post is bordering cult-ish, blind defense when we don't even know anything about what final Cybertruck specs + price are.

One of the big advantages of an exoskeleton was that it was supposed to make the interior much more spacious. Curios to see how that'll hold up, and looks like the middle front row seat was a casualty already on that front.

Also, all this talk of the Cybertruck structure bing made to save money ("omg no paint shop!!!") but if it comes out at like $79,900 and at like 15% margins for the 350 mile range AWD version then does it really matter?

My opinion of the Cybertruck at those specs will be much different than if it were being sold at like $60,000. We'll see. Until then I have no strong opinion one way or the other, just going to remain cautiously pessemistic (again, all of Elon's gloomy refernces to the cybertruck being "hard to produce cheaply" and comments on it being a relatively niche product in the Tesla portfolio with projected sales of only 250k vs. the Cybertruck reveal where they sounded like they wanted to destroy the whole industry. If you don't see bad news coming you're a blind optimist). Sounds like to me they're going to try and jack up the margins for it as much as they can for the early adopters (while still remaining under the $80k IRA threshhold) and maximize volume sales with the mid-tier version of the truck. Similar to Model 3 pre-SR+.

Happy it has a Lightning-style frunk. Crossing my fingers for home battery backup as a day 1 reservation holder.

 

[SPadival]

I thought of this Tesla Twitter supporter when I saw this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680173469483278340

 

[Tony73]

Hybrids have been on the global market for over 25 years (Prius in Japan in 1997) and in the US for over 20 years (Prius in 2001), and every manufacturer still produces more basic ICE vehicles than even regular hybrids. The numbers for plug-in hybrids are even more sad.

If my googling is accurate, Toyota sold 2.6 million hybrids globally in 2022. Toyota sold over 10 million vehicles in total in 2022...so after 25 years they are only willing to commit 25% of their production to hybrids. Even Toyota isn't even really trying to push hybrids.

All manufacturers combined was only 2.9 million hybrids, out of 80 million vehicles total sold worldwide in 2022. Under 4%.

Meanwhile, Tesla produced 1.3 million EVs in 2022, will probably hit 1.8-2 million in 2023, and will almost certainly exceed 3 million EVs in 2025.

These numbers should be embarrassing for anybody, especially Toyota, saying hybrids are the solution or that hybrids need more time. Toyota has had 25 years and are only at a 25% hybrid share of their own production. Embarrassing.

Even more cognitively dissonant: Toyota's own materials (their flawed 1:6:90 rule) argue that you can produce 90 hybrids or 6 plug-in hybrids with the batteries required for 1 EV. If that's the case, why didn't or couldn't Toyota secure more battery supply for their hybrids?

Apparently, Toyota's 2.6 million hybrids in 2022 is the equivalent of only 29,000 EV batteries, by their own calculation. Hybridizing the entire Toyota annual production of 10 million cars should only require the battery equivalent of 120,000 EVs, but apparently Toyota can't or won't do it. Tesla puts that many EVs on the road in less than a month.

Continued pushing of hybrids sounds like Toyota admitting either incompetence or a complete lack of caring enough to try

Hybrids were always going to be a dead end.
Hybridization only improves the fuel efficiency of a given platform by 25%. It’s hard to convince customers to pay a premium for more complexity and only 25% more fuel efficiency. Turning a 30mpg vehicle into a 37.5 mpg vehicle with a hybrid drivetrain is just not worth it to most people

One of the biggest myths about the Prius is that it’s selling hybrid technology. The selling point of the Prius is extreme efficiency and the hybrid drivetrain was just a part of that. A Prius without hybrid drivetrain would still get over 40mpg.
Before EVs became a thing, it was the way to show you cared about the environment.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I'm hoping this margin speculation and other FUD (since the P&D report) is just embroidery around a big bear trap that springs on 7/19/2023 at around 4 PM.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I thought of this Tesla Twitter supporter when I saw this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1680173469483278340

That's funny that JP Morgan said this:

But their est avg price buy was $123.21