Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

I agree if Tesla substantially raises prices on their cars anytime in the future then the valuation balloons like a rampaging bull in a China shop.

I don’t think of EM as a capitalist where capital is the goal but as one who drives toward RESOURCES. He is building facilities and staffing that can be resourced against any number of moribund practices from the past.

The world is entering a period of vast disruptions and EM is building the right tool to address certain necessities. He is making, for one, vehicles that are capable of 5x longevity with few moving parts and carefully tailored for enduring style.

Our Gigafactory of today is a resource available for a challenging (and promising) future.

We all will find struggles in the future coming at us. Something new always requires new tools. Simple capital can’t deliver the right tools. Simple natural resources can’t deliver the vital requirements.

This time calls for humanity to bear the yoke in a different way.

 

[EVWatcher]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688594602180198414

This is a pretty easy promise. This is close to happening naturally as a result of free market economics. It’s not economically sensible to build new coal or natural gas power plants and most of our natural gas plants were built in the early 2000s and have a lifespan of… (drumroll)… 30-36 years.

And to be clear I’m not knocking green government policy. I’m a pretty liberal person but nothing has been a better education in economics for me than following tesla, and while all politicians will spent the next 15 years trying to take credit for Americans rapid move to renewables it’s been pretty much an economic certainty for a decade now since the cost of wind and solar crossed under all fossil fuels. Batteries are obviously massively important to that formula working, which is again, thank you tesla and this forum for a amazing education in economics that Americans don’t seem to get k-12.

Extra reading if anyone wants

Levelized cost of electricity - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Natural gas generators make up the largest share of overall U.S. generation capacity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

Average age of US power plant fleet flat for 4th-straight year in 2018

Hydroelectric power plants had the highest average age among U.S. power generation facilities, while wind and solar facilities had the lowest.

www.spglobal.com

 

[elasalle]

This is a pretty easy promise. This is close to happening naturally as a result of free market economics. It’s not economically sensible to build new coal or natural gas power plants and most of our natural gas plants were built in the early 2000s and have a lifespan of… (drumroll)… 30-36 years.

And to be clear I’m not knocking green government policy. I’m a pretty liberal person but nothing has been a better education in economics for me than following tesla, and while all politicians will spent the next 15 years trying to take credit for Americans rapid move to renewables it’s been pretty much an economic certainty for a decade now since the cost of wind and solar crossed under all fossil fuels. Batteries are obviously massively important to that formula working, which is again, thank you tesla and this forum for a amazing education in economics that Americans don’t seem to get k-12.

Extra reading if anyone wants

Levelized cost of electricity - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Natural gas generators make up the largest share of overall U.S. generation capacity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

Average age of US power plant fleet flat for 4th-straight year in 2018

Hydroelectric power plants had the highest average age among U.S. power generation facilities, while wind and solar facilities had the lowest.

www.spglobal.com

Current tailwinds better than previous headwinds.

One new campaign promise form one of Presidential candidates is to cancel all EV credits ... cheers!!

 

[EVWatcher]

Current tailwinds better than previous headwinds.

One new campaign promise form one of Presidential candidates is to cancel all EV credits ... cheers!!

I’m not sure EV credits are actually good for the transition to EVs now. Even battery subsidies seems like a poor use of money. Batteries are already profitable absent subsidy. There’s certainly benefits to the USA for subsidizing American manufactured batteries. But I don’t think any government money handed out since ~2016 has done any good to the global transition to renewables.

Certainly pads teslas profit though so I won’t complain.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Today's volume not even close the average 30 day volume. That's a bit surprising given the news today

 

[Buckminster]

This is a pretty easy promise. This is close to happening naturally as a result of free market economics. It’s not economically sensible to build new coal or natural gas power plants and most of our natural gas plants were built in the early 2000s and have a lifespan of… (drumroll)… 30-36 years.

And to be clear I’m not knocking green government policy. I’m a pretty liberal person but nothing has been a better education in economics for me than following tesla, and while all politicians will spent the next 15 years trying to take credit for Americans rapid move to renewables it’s been pretty much an economic certainty for a decade now since the cost of wind and solar crossed under all fossil fuels. Batteries are obviously massively important to that formula working, which is again, thank you tesla and this forum for a amazing education in economics that Americans don’t seem to get k-12.

Extra reading if anyone wants

Levelized cost of electricity - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Natural gas generators make up the largest share of overall U.S. generation capacity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

Average age of US power plant fleet flat for 4th-straight year in 2018

Hydroelectric power plants had the highest average age among U.S. power generation facilities, while wind and solar facilities had the lowest.

www.spglobal.com

Elon recently stated that power generation needs to triple. Most likely path would be for these gas plants to have their life extended and only used during peaks hours when batteries are exhausted.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688643487103610880

Up 3% on this stellar news...

 

[GrandEnigma]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688643487103610880

Up 3% on this stellar news...

I mean, each car they sold this quarter only cost them roughly $550k, it's all good.

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688643487103610880

Up 3% on this stellar news...

Lucid losing massive amounts of money is becoming too predictable while short interest for this company is over 30%. I think it's due for a squeeze.

 

[Singuy]

At least Lucid's cash burn makes sense. I still can't figure out why Waymo and Cruise, who beat Tesla to having this holy grail money printing business losing as much as money as a struggling car manufacturing company.

 

[2daMoon]

Yes, I can separate the two as an investor who has watched the shareholder meetings and has taken a real interest in the company. The problem is the average person can’t, and it has definitely tainted Tesla’s brand image. I’ve had many a discussion with friends who ask me what the hell is going on with that Elon guy?

The public just sees the wacky stories and forms their opinions on that and unfortunately I do believe it has affected sales.

Still long but frustrated.

How can you tell with even a smidgen of certainty that the "wacky stories" have affected sales when Tesla are selling everything they produce?

Some people might answer, "well, they lowered prices, didn't they?" and have no clue about economies of scale and that lowering prices has been baked into the Tesla plan since the beginning.

Others will certainly cite the weekly deliveries in specific countries, without taking into account logistics between the factory and the plethora of delivery points. Particularly those destinations that are supplied by ship. Because cars aren't delivered like water, by opening a tap and letting it run until the bucket is full, the scheduling of transport will not be constant and this will result in delivery inconsistencies in any specific location over a short period of time. However, when considered globally these wash out and it is clear that demand still outpaces production.

Most folks who are frustrated by Elon's antics, and who (in their mind) attempt to map this to explain TSLA performance, are often leaving factors unconsidered which could easily explain market gyrations without resorting to blaming it on something the Technoking said or did.

Knowledge is power (over FUD).

The type of people who are most easily influenced by the media's FUD are the same people who will be the last to experience the benefits of Tesla vehicle and/or stock ownership. This is not unique to Tesla, as the same will be true of those shades of grey between Early Adopters and Late Adopters for any product that is part of a significant technological disruption.

Those laggards will always be the majority, won't they? It will always be the few who reap the greatest benefit that comes from seeing the forest, despite all those dang trees being in the way.

 

[2daMoon]

Just a typo.

Sometimes a typo is just a typo.

 

[GrandEnigma]

Curious why they would continue to guide to 10k production for the year when they can only muster 1,400 sales in a quarter, Q1 was 1,406 and Q2 1,404.

 

[Singuy]

Curious why they would continue to guide to 10k production for the year when they can only muster 1,400 sales in a quarter, Q1 was 1,406 and Q2 1,404.

They cut prices recently, also they are going to be delivering more of the cheaper version. So yeah their earnings for Q3 and 4 would suck even more if you think it's bad right now.

 

[bkp_duke]

Curious why they would continue to guide to 10k production for the year when they can only muster 1,400 sales in a quarter, Q1 was 1,406 and Q2 1,404.

They lowered prices over the weekend (up to $12k), hopefully stimulating demand.

Damn, ninja'd by @Singuy

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

They lowered prices over the weekend (up to $12k), hopefully stimulating demand.

Damn, ninja'd by @Singuy

It isn't going to work. Expect them to lower that estimate yet again, like they've been doing all year right a couple weeks before they have to announce Q3 P/D numbers.

 

[Singuy]

It isn't going to work. Expect them to lower that estimate yet again, like they've been doing all year right a couple weeks before they have to announce Q3 P/D numbers.

Well they have 900M worth of inventory. Their logistic lot is filled with cars, about a quarters worth of deliveries. So I think they certainly have enough metal to meet their target. Now it's a matter of how much they are willing to cut off their limbs trying to meet their delivery goal.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Incredible leaked insider-scoop in that article:

Yah, you'd think Drew would get whacked if it was about 4680, but it makes much more sense to get rid of the CFO. Clearly that article is spot on.
/s

 

[thx1139]

The amount of EV FUD I am seeing now is incredible, never seen so many articles that either have just plain lies or really old data. It is rather sickening. Would really love if the leader of the EV revolution spent some cycles debunking this nonsense.

 

[AndrewZ]

Tesla's mission is best served with maximizing profit levels given their production capacity. They will and should raise prices if demand increases faster than supply.

Too much demand chasing too little supply is a big part of why interest rates are where they are today. If that happens again, whether it's because real monetary conditions loosen or something happens to supply chains or whatever, I'd expect the Fed to take more action to rein that demand back in just like they already have.

Would definitely view that previous pandemic pricing craziness as a temporary one-off thing, transitory if you will, and it should not be returning.