GS probably did some napkin math on how much Tesla is getting and was like...holy s<&t!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The OEMs know they will get bailed out, so they think they can afford to have a short term view.
Ford basically just got a 9 billion gift.
It all depends on who wins control of the government in 2024. If Democrats do well, Tesla gets to start raking insane IRA cash as production ramps up. If Republicans win, the IRA gets gutted and money starts flowing to fossil fuels.
[Mods: Sorry if my post is too political. But the 2024 elections will have a huge impact on Tesla's future.]
Yes. One thing the IRA did was to provide a pre-bailout for legacy auto so that they can survive the transition to EV's. It's looking like it still won't be enough for most of them to survive intact.
I stand corrected. The $9.2 billion loan to Ford comes from the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program passed in 2009. This is the same program that loaned money to Tesla several years ago.
Wow. I had no idea that the Department of Energy had so much to loan under that old program. I thought it must be through IRA funds.
Not just Tesla, many under-served communities
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
As expected (or per their MO if you prefer), wedgies 'filled the gap' this morning to June 06, 2023:
Now, they'll try their hardest to ride the Lower-BB for all it's worth. Volume is starting to come back though as we move into the 2nd half of August.
Cheers to the Longs!
Now, they'll try their hardest to ride the Lower-BB for all it's worth. Volume is starting to come back though as we move into the 2nd half of August.
Cheers to the Longs!
That is my back-of-mind concern as well, particularly given Ford's recent proclamations about the "bright future of Ford Hybrids!"
My spidey senses are telling me there is a lot of fear and concern around my favorite Tesla forum, likely due to the many factors, but amped up to 11 due to the recent stock price slide.
Let me say that I still believe (due to great likelihoods, not a crystal ball) that all is well, and all will be well:
1) Ukraine will win before the West tires of support. The postwar rebuild, while daunting, will enable far faster green tech infrastructure (I have seen articles about these efforts already, even as missiles and shells still fall) that may act as a proof-of-concept for deep green rebuilds elsewhere.
2) The former US president will lose again in 2024, continuing a streak of losses due to the deadly combination of unbeatable single-party-base support that cannot translate to the full electorate. This will lock in, at a minimum, continued existence of the BIL and IRA, and allow the possibility of even more electric transition support in the US level.
3) Europe, with a fire having been lit under it's collective butt by Russian gas extortion and invasion, will continue to expand their lead over the USA in green grid and electric transport.
4) Tesla will release a Cybertruck that is unmatched by anything on the market, continuing Tesla's expansion of awareness into the dark recesses of the mind of the Average American.
5) Tesla will continue to expand the Supercharger network at breakneck pace, with unmet areas eventually being backfilled in the laggard USA by the NEVI-funded chargers, with the plug wars now largely won by NACS, thereby nixing one of the two major hurdles the Average American has against switching to EV (charger availability).
6) Tesla will finish the Monterrey plant in due time, with the massive price drop nixing the second major hurdle the Average American has against switching to EV (price).
7) Tesla will continue its already-set course to build on its massive success in the Megapack market, spreading risk from the vehicle sales market and greening and stabilizing grids everywhere.
All of this is not to mention any of the around-the-globe rumors of additional battery and/or vehicle factories, or the potential for solving human labor as we know it via Optimi, or selling Dojo services, or any other stuff that we bandy about here. In other words,
Be of good cheer y'all, and for the love of Pete:
HODL
--Growler out
larmor
Active Member
Media widely reporting tesla car "price cuts" is basically advertising, while car loan interest rates rise across the board as the real reason for price cuts. Gaining customers on the fence by minor price cuts is generating a larger FSD data base and customer base in the background. Remember in the CC it was mentioned that the value of FSD was so compelling, they can give the car away. Lots of negative publicity on this, and relatively little rumors or reporting on traditional auto OEM in talks with Tesla for licensing of FSD.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Well, it's 3 years today since this prognostication was published. IMO this underscores the tendancy to overestimate what can be done in the short term, and underestimate what can be done in the longterm:
Two weeks seems to take about two years, give-or-take...
Cheers to the longs!
Two weeks seems to take about two years, give-or-take...
Cheers to the longs!
As good as it would be for Tesla, I'm not sure people should want these numbers to be exploding to 10x the original estimated impact as I'm sure many can imagine what happens when you budget for something and then forecasted/actual numbers end up being 10x your budget
regardless of who is in charge...
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Sometimes I'm amazed by the media's (and most people's) misinterpretation of Tesla price cuts. Then, I consider how little research they (media and their audience) actually do before forming an opinion. (plus, the effects of FUD perpetrated by those who believe they are threatened by an all-electric future)
By taking the view of what they think of as "normal business practices" they tend to see lower prices as reactionary on the part of Tesla, and as a sign of negativity for the company whenever they reduce prices. "oh, Tesla must be struggling..."
Anyone who has read the, now ancient, double top secret Tesla master plan that outlined both the mission to accelerate the transition, and the specific goal of reducing the cost per vehicle as part of that mission will grok this. Which goes a long way toward explaining how so many, so consistently, get Tesla wrong. Plus, they don't understand how economies of scale allow a growing company to become more profitable by selling for less and less over time.
Add to this chasm of missing data the struggle many people have with making any attempt to support an opinion with rudimentary comparative analysis of Tesla to other companies and we are left with the situation at hand. One where the media, either out of ignorance or malice (or both) can easily plant the seeds of disinformation into the minds of their target audience, who just take that ball and run without question.
This is, of course, bullish as..., well, let's just say it IS bullish. But, how can that be bullish?
Mostly due to Lincoln's adage about fooling people. Eventually, the spark will ignite and the facts will become obvious to more people as they witness their friends and neighbors adopt EVs and renewable alternatives for homes, businesses, cities, counties, states, etc. all moving toward the inevitable. You can't fool all of the people, all of the time.
The result will be the same as every other technology disruption, as, at some point everyone will want in. Some will want the cars, some will want the energy solutions, some will want the stock, and a few will have to foresight to want all of these. And I've not even mentioned FSD/Robotaxi, Optimus, and Dojo services further down the line.
Though Robotaxi will confound those waiting for that moment when their cabbies are all telling them to buy TSLA in order to know with certainty just when to finally buy.
Keep watching the horizon for the coming swell. If history is any clue, the surf will deliver plenty of more waves to ride.
HODL
By taking the view of what they think of as "normal business practices" they tend to see lower prices as reactionary on the part of Tesla, and as a sign of negativity for the company whenever they reduce prices. "oh, Tesla must be struggling..."
Anyone who has read the, now ancient, double top secret Tesla master plan that outlined both the mission to accelerate the transition, and the specific goal of reducing the cost per vehicle as part of that mission will grok this. Which goes a long way toward explaining how so many, so consistently, get Tesla wrong. Plus, they don't understand how economies of scale allow a growing company to become more profitable by selling for less and less over time.
Add to this chasm of missing data the struggle many people have with making any attempt to support an opinion with rudimentary comparative analysis of Tesla to other companies and we are left with the situation at hand. One where the media, either out of ignorance or malice (or both) can easily plant the seeds of disinformation into the minds of their target audience, who just take that ball and run without question.
This is, of course, bullish as..., well, let's just say it IS bullish. But, how can that be bullish?
Mostly due to Lincoln's adage about fooling people. Eventually, the spark will ignite and the facts will become obvious to more people as they witness their friends and neighbors adopt EVs and renewable alternatives for homes, businesses, cities, counties, states, etc. all moving toward the inevitable. You can't fool all of the people, all of the time.
The result will be the same as every other technology disruption, as, at some point everyone will want in. Some will want the cars, some will want the energy solutions, some will want the stock, and a few will have to foresight to want all of these. And I've not even mentioned FSD/Robotaxi, Optimus, and Dojo services further down the line.
Though Robotaxi will confound those waiting for that moment when their cabbies are all telling them to buy TSLA in order to know with certainty just when to finally buy.
Keep watching the horizon for the coming swell. If history is any clue, the surf will deliver plenty of more waves to ride.
HODL
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I'm seeing multiple stories on my news feed about a podcast with multiple previous Tesla employees. The headline focuses around the grueling working conditions and Musk's rage firings. I suspect it's a collection of folks who couldn't cut it (admittedly long hours) and regret for missed opportunity, but who knows fact from fiction with media these days...
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Vox and the Verge are doing a podcast on big tech called "Land of the Giants," where they decided to interview former Tesla employees about production hell. All the stories they recounted on the podcast were from 2018, and already thoroughly reported on Bloomberg and WaPo.
So it's just 5 year-old stories that have already been reported on, addressed, and/or settled being presented as new.
I agree. Eventually the IRA will have to be scaled back. If Republicans are in charge, it will happen sooner. That may be good or bad depending on your view of how fast you think we should transition to sustainable energy.
Definitely and I imagine stuff like this is part of why credit agencies are firing shots across the bow by downgrading credit ratings etc, because overrunning a budget by 10x (as one example) is not how you responsibly run your finances at a household level, company level, or country level.
GhostSkater
Member
Some nice pics of "Supercharger V4", which for now it just a V4 stall, not charger
Of note, control part now is inside a box, probably a bit more complex with the whole payment and screen part, also, radiator is significantly bigger than V3 stall
And also I got someone to snap a pic of the "V4" cabinet, which other than a few kW more than a V3 on the AC/DC conversion side, it's exactly the same
But the beefier cooling seems like it can/will be paired with higher power cabinets on true V4 sites, and means probably two things
One, is that Cybertruck won't be that much higher voltage, so they will need to crank the amps more, thus more cable cooling required, second is that it is higher voltage, but will also need more current meaning 500+ kW peak
Of note, control part now is inside a box, probably a bit more complex with the whole payment and screen part, also, radiator is significantly bigger than V3 stall
And also I got someone to snap a pic of the "V4" cabinet, which other than a few kW more than a V3 on the AC/DC conversion side, it's exactly the same
But the beefier cooling seems like it can/will be paired with higher power cabinets on true V4 sites, and means probably two things
One, is that Cybertruck won't be that much higher voltage, so they will need to crank the amps more, thus more cable cooling required, second is that it is higher voltage, but will also need more current meaning 500+ kW peak
That depends on how much you think the IRA will help in the long run.
I suspect a lot of people on this board have over-extended their personal finances to invest in Tesla because they think it will pay off in the long run. The same can be said of government investments in sustainable energy.
But back to the original point, I agree that most analysts are under-estimating the effect of the IRA on Tesla. Tesla is ramping EVs and Megapacks and battery packs and battery cells at an astonishing rate. No company will benefit from the IRA more than Tesla. Nobody else will even be close.
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