Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hooty]

What effect do you think Waymo & Cruise paid robotaxi services in San Francisco, Los Angeles & New York will have on TSLA?
Might be worth buying into Alphabet & GM?

 

[EQC_]

... This chart illustrates that buyers are holding back in this challenging macro environment, delaying vehicle purchases longer than ever. ...

View attachment 965579

I agree that folks are probably delaying purchases due to the current economic situation (and predictions that things will get worse)....

There's also the bit where car sales were way down during COVID (due, in part, to low availability), so there aren't many 2020-2022 cars on the road (comparitively speaking) to help make the fleet average look younger.

And, since this chart is showing the average age of vehicles on the road, it doesn't necessarily show how long the buyer of a new car is hanging onto it before buying another. So, the chart sortof shows how long the average car is lasting (across multiple owners) before it ends up getting scrapped. So, some component of the data is due to cars just lasting longer before the maintenance gets out of hand.

Interestingly, since EV's should be more reliable (and with fewer maintenance things that an owner might neglect and cause the vehicle's life to shorten), its quite plausible that as EV's take over, average vehicles on the road will get older still.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I’m back. What have you guys been up to?

In for 130sh today. Screw it.

Exactly, screw it! Forget everything I said this week.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Exactly, screw it! Forget everything I said this week.

View attachment 965607

So much for waiting till Doomsday or $215

Got this lovely email today because i believe in Tesla!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

This really has nothing to do with MM's. There was clear incentive for them to prop up the stock based on open interest and volume with Puts at the beginning of this week and last week...and the week before that but there's been zero buying support. Just like back in Nov/Dec, MM's are not bothering to step in and volume has dried up and gone anemic.

Just look at volume over the past month compared to the 12 month or even 6 month average volume average. We're seeing the usual hedge fund shenanigans with dropping the stock hard in the AM and spoofing the stock as macro's go higher in the afternoon.

Seems just crystal clear what hedge funds are doing and that is to push the stock down to support levels (100 day moving average and the uptrend line from Jan low) and see if they can break support which would trigger more selling.

It's a pretty simple game for them. Drive the stock down to support and see if buying volume rushes in. If buying volume does come in, flip their bets to bullish and ride the stock back up. If the stock breaks support, short it even harder and see how low it will go. This was the exact playbook from Nov/Dec. They already broke the 50 day moving average rather easily which only emboldened them to push even harder. The 100 day moving average is 219/share. They'll likely test that next week and the biggie, the 200 day moving average is 196/share. No doubt in my mind if the macro's push down another 2-3%, then they'll try and blow through the 100 day average and test the 200 days

If it was really that easy, why don't they make an infinite amount of money by making enormous bets in both directions since they can't lose? That's the one thing that makes me skeptical that this is the main explanation for dips. I must be missing something.

 

[Krugerrand]

That sounds awesome! Where could I see something that cool? And would you describe yourself as being closer to 20 or closer to 90? Just curious.

Yes.

So maybe I’ll do like a treasure hunt.

 

[GhostSkater]

"bUt thE 4680 pAcK can'T bE rEcycled"

Submerged EV battery pack shredder "Allow me to introduce myself"

 

[SOULPEDL]

So much for waiting till Doomsday or $215

Got this lovely email today because i believe in Tesla!

View attachment 965615

... the letter is because you're on margin? That's some powerful belief. But that's also what made me break down and buy. You people are triggers for me.
Looking for some relief soon. Like next Monday would be good.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You people are triggers for me.

Another one of 'those people' that likes to blame others for their addiction

 

[SOULPEDL]

Another one of 'those people' that likes to blame others for their addiction

You especially! 69% your fault I bought today. And here comes the justification in true addict form
I believe there's >50% chance the trend turns around before I run out of money and have to sell lower.
Meanwhile, I'll never get a letter threatening to sell them. Plus I can sell some guitars and certain handmade pedals.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

So much for waiting till Doomsday or $215

Got this lovely email today because i believe in Tesla!

View attachment 965615

I'm not very smart. Are they telling you you need to deposit funds or risk a forced sell of shares?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I'm not very smart. Are they telling you you need to deposit funds or risk a forced sell of shares?

Need to deposit funds, otherwise ill start paying interest on the margin. If my portfolio (100% $TSLA) goes below a certain amount, they'll 'kindly take action' and sell them on my behalf, aka "Margin Call".

 

[kbM3]

This video about the incredible odds against beating the SP500 index by picking individual stocks, really drove home for me what a coup we pulled off with Tesla. I mean I knew it was spectacular, but this really enlightened me how incredible our achievement really was (for those of us who are long term investors).

 

[dhanson865]

the chart that I shared yesterday

View attachment 965579

weird headline, I'm not seeing the flat or downward part of the combined line on the graph, looks like an increase for the 20th straight year to me.

I do see flat portions on the yellow line for light trucks, but not on the other two lines.

 

[Singuy]

This video about the incredible odds against beating the SP500 index by picking individual stocks, really drove home for me what a coup we pulled off with Tesla. I mean I knew it was spectacular, but this really enlightened me how incredible our achievement really was (for those of us who are long term investors).

Even lot of early investors who didn't buy enough of Tsla at a low valuation ended up driving their cost basis up to being in the negative after Tesla crashed from highs. You can be right about everything and still lose money in the market. It's brutal and designed to bankrupt you.

 

[dhanson865]

all this talk of used car prices I did some window shopping on teslas used car section

2020 Model 3 with stdAP for $27,900 White (34,000 miles on it)
2020 Model 3 with EnhAP for $31,900 White (25,000 miles on it)
2020 Model 3 with FSD for $32,500 Blue (25,000 miles on it)

I'm not sure if they turn on FSD or Enhanced Autopilot on some of these trade ins. There are plenty of cars with only standard AP and about as many with enhanced or FSD (something like 40/30/30 split but I didn't do an actual analysis so I might have some memory bias at play).

The "upcharge" vs "added value" of the FSD is so cheap I'd grab the FSD enabled car first without hesitation. On top of that it has blue paint which was a non base color, the two cheaper ones are white and it's been a base color in the past. So the upcharge for FSD + Blue paint is really minimal compared to the Enhanced AP and white paint.

 

[SPadival]

Even lot of early investors who didn't buy enough of Tsla at a low valuation ended up driving their cost basis up to being in the negative after Tesla crashed from highs. You can be right about everything and still lose money in the market. It's brutal and designed to bankrupt you.

Speak for yourself... My cost basis is still $14 (post-split).

(Having said that, I have sold and bought back all my TSLA stock twice since 2016, the last one during the covid panic of 2020)

 

[Singuy]

Speak for yourself... My cost basis is still $14 (post-split).

(Having said that, I have sold and bought back all my TSLA stock twice since 2016, the last one during the covid panic of 2020)

Not speaking for myself at all. My last purchase was 2019. Would have been RIP Singuy if fomo got to me the past 4 years. The temptation to sell and buy was strong tho not gonna lie.

 

[Max Plaid]

What effect do you think Waymo & Cruise paid robotaxi services in San Francisco, Los Angeles & New York will have on TSLA?
Might be worth buying into Alphabet & GM?

GOOGL is a good buy any time, solid company, loads of cash in the bank, but for all their other business ventures, not Waymo

GM is pink-slip material...

 

[Usain]

What effect do you think Waymo & Cruise paid robotaxi services in San Francisco, Los Angeles & New York will have on TSLA?
Might be worth buying into Alphabet & GM?

I'll again repeat my FSD/robotaxi thesis.

It doesn't matter if Waymo and Cruise are successful. It doesn't even matter if Waymo and Cruise become profitable.

The only thing that matters is whether or not Tesla's FSD is eventually good enough for robotaxis. If Tesla can achieve autonomy in the next 5 to 7 years then Tesla wins every market they enter. Nobody else can achieve Tesla's low cost. Therefore, Tesla can always undercut the prices of Waymo and Cruise.