I am still emotionally scarred from the period between Sept 21st 2022 - Jan 6th 2023
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Dojo already exists. You are going to have to use more words to have that make any sense.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
To get that color you must first break down a Guacamolecule into its component elements, right?
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I may be misinterpreting your post, so if your post was sarcasm just disregard...but I actually thought it was refreshing to see that. I took it as a big compliment to Tesla's ability to bring down costs.
What I heard was "Tesla's so good at cutting cost, nobody else has a chance."
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Rob's got a 37 minute interview with Walter Isaacson online now! Go watch, because we all love Rob.
And financially too...I am still emotionally scarred from the period between Sept 21st 2022 - Jan 6th 2023
I sold some of my non-IRA TSLA holding at $1165 back in 2021. That sale turned into dividend mutual funds. Since then:
- TSLA down by ~30%
- Dividend Mutual Funds down by ~15% w/o income
- Dividend Mutual Funds down by ~7-8% w/ income included
Obviously, TSLA has a much higher upside from here in out, but the mutual funds are life savers in a recessionary type of market. Just sharing to provide one insight.
- TSLA down by ~30%
- Dividend Mutual Funds down by ~15% w/o income
- Dividend Mutual Funds down by ~7-8% w/ income included
Obviously, TSLA has a much higher upside from here in out, but the mutual funds are life savers in a recessionary type of market. Just sharing to provide one insight.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Agreed. What is your midpoint PT (you know, if half of those things go right?)
My sole trade of any kind so far in 2023 has been for a slice of TSLA on Jan. 10 at $118.85...meaning I guess emotional but I guess not scarred.I am still emotionally scarred from the period between Sept 21st 2022 - Jan 6th 2023
...except that I missed the hypabyssal bottom by that much
.The best guide to the immediate future is, Drew is on record saying something like 2024 will be a big year for 4680 cell production.
If Tesla has the cells then that unlocks a ramp in more vehicle production, Austin/Berlin Model Y, Cybertruck and Semi.
The Lathrop Megapack factory should be fully ramped and the Chinese Megpack factory in progress,
However, if we look ahead to the end of 2023 it is unlikely that much happens in these areas, apart from Lathrop.
Any positive surprise between now and the end of 2023, is likely to come from FSD, Optimus or Dojo, or perhaps the reveal of a new product.
FSD, Optimus or Dojo, and the reveal of a new product are also more likely to make a positive contribution in 2024
Or sometimes nothing changes, and people simply reconsider the available information.
If Tesla has the cells then that unlocks a ramp in more vehicle production, Austin/Berlin Model Y, Cybertruck and Semi.
The Lathrop Megapack factory should be fully ramped and the Chinese Megpack factory in progress,
However, if we look ahead to the end of 2023 it is unlikely that much happens in these areas, apart from Lathrop.
Any positive surprise between now and the end of 2023, is likely to come from FSD, Optimus or Dojo, or perhaps the reveal of a new product.
FSD, Optimus or Dojo, and the reveal of a new product are also more likely to make a positive contribution in 2024
Or sometimes nothing changes, and people simply reconsider the available information.
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Eh...only lose if you sell and i have not sold any of my long term $TSLA ever.
Definitely MF's will do better in a bear market. My timeline is 2033 so i was scrambling to raise more funds to buy more $TSLA when it was in the mid $100's. Luckily found a lot of loose change in relatives couches
Definitely MF's will do better in a bear market. My timeline is 2033 so i was scrambling to raise more funds to buy more $TSLA when it was in the mid $100's. Luckily found a lot of loose change in relatives couches
You're taking your extended family's money to buy TSLA for yourself...?
Had to sell, my own damn fault. But it went to a good cause, kinda. Nuff said.
I have done some very rough estimates including robotaxis, software revenues (FSD), and even a guesstimate on meager Optimus revenues by 2030. Robotaxi's alone get so incredibly obscene valuation wise (even if I go conservative with it) that I almost can't believe the math. Optimus gets even more crazy, but I scale the bot production slowly so my model doesn't show it going full crazy until after 2030, but if bot sales scaled fast then it eclipses most of the rest of the company by my guestimates.
I mostly tune my model super conservative on purpose because the numbers just get stupid high if I don't, lol.
If they do hit 20 million by 2030 then my model shows a PT around $1900 with a modest PE of 30. The PE becomes very sensitive at big valuations like this, because a PE of 50 increases that PT to nearly $3100 for the same revenues.
When I do include my guesses for FSD, Robotaxis, and Bots, my 2030 PT goes up to $4890. And my guesses for all of those in 2030 are conservative too. It's so silly that I keep these switched off in my model just to make my PT seem more believable.
The upside potential for TSLA in 7 years is insane IMHO, even very conservative numbers predict a 4X as the minimum base, so when I see people like Featsbeyond50 say $120 in 2030 without Robotaxi's I just don't understand how anyone can come to such a conclusion.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
FSD v12 "End-to-End Breakthru" w. @DaveT ft. @jimmah (James Douma on X)
Is this Tesla’s ChatGPT Moment? Inside Look at FSD v12 w/ James Douma #43 (Ep. 736) | Dave Lee (3 hrs ago)
Is this Tesla’s ChatGPT Moment? Inside Look at FSD v12 w/ James Douma #43 (Ep. 736) | Dave Lee (3 hrs ago)
TSLA was drifting up after hours. Usually a good sign, but not necessarily tomorrow...
Model Y AWD SR is pulled from the website. There's a new 800 dollar power lift gate retrofit.
Hoping these are the only change they will make today.....
Hoping these are the only change they will make today.....
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Chanos still shorting Tsla. The guy is really addicted
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