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Gary´s take on the downgrade yesterday after reading the whole note:
Looks like it is constructed with an agenda:


Further in Gary's tweet, he says:
as global EV adoption accelerates and TSLA TAM doubles from Cybertruck and the $25K vehicle,
TAM only doubles, Gary? I hope that you didn't mean that literally. Obviously, you didn't mean units, right? You must have meant TAM revenue.

I haven't done the analysis, but my guess is that even if he was talking about revenue, you could easily argue a tripling from Cybertruck and Gen 3. Probably more.

The rest of Gary's sentence is:
which both produce the vast majority of their value after 2024
I'm with you there, Gary. The Gen 3 will sell like crazy in every auto market in every part of the globe. The Cybertruck will be limited by how many they can make. But yes, Cybertruck + Gen 3 will eventually bring more value than S3XY.

And of course, FSD will dwarf it all.
 
And it seems like preparation for Giga Mexico has begun ;) (jump to 1:50 if you´re in a hurry):

Gawd, can't anyone do a video properly? Do they not realize there are things like video editors???? And writing a script? You could take the same video, do proper cuts and voice overs and it would be 1 minute of useful information.
 
TAM only doubles, Gary? I hope that you didn't mean that literally. Obviously, you didn't mean units, right? You must have meant TAM revenue.
Total addressable market is the total annual sales of all cars in the vehicle categories, which would expand into the truck and lower priced segments.
Tesla's share of that market has way more room for growth than the TAM increase.
From Wikipedia:
TAM-SAM-Market.jpg
 
Worrisome...


More:


Just a heads up: big volcano eruption incoming in Iceland. Also, most of the major flight paths from the upper east coast into Europe look like they're through...Iceland...please confirm, anybody.

 
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It came to me today how the last big rise back in 2020, as near as I can tell, began only after a long, long lull while Wall Street waited for this new automotive startup to fail. A valid and logical expectation when other automotive startups are considered.

Then, suddenly, it became obvious that this was different and everyone couldn't get a piece of it fast enough. The boosters were lit and away it went.

After a while some sort of equilibrium was reached and economic forces took center stage and TSLA's rocket ship was traded in for a pair of good hiking boots, still scaling the mountain, or at least not losing too much ground to the landslides and other hazards foisted upon TSLA.

While the SP has been curtailed in its quest for Lunar dominance, Tesla the company has never missed a stride as they continue to grow in multiple directions at once. Something that the analysts on Wall Street simply cannot evaluate because there isn't really anything in their playbook to cover that sort of company.

Meanwhile, the HODLorians bide their time in the shadows, awaiting the great convergence when these various projects come into their own with the precision of a well-conducted orchestra. Cybertruck, 4680s, Megapacks and PowerWalls, the electric version of the People's Car, and more across non-Tesla companies like SpaceX, Neurolink, Boring Co., and, well, you know the other one. Each of which is poised to change the world, each in their own way.

I just want to share how fortunate it is to be both and investor and a spectator to such a grand scheme with the potential to change everything.

It feels as though we are creeping ever closer to that point the spark ignites the waiting bonfire and things start getting very interesting once more. Including the value of our portfolios.

HODL
 
So all the youtubers and others that ordered 10,20 even 50 cybertrucks to lock in FSD and use them as robotaxis will have to give up their early orders.

With no robotaxi in sight the backup plan was to buy and resell for a profit.

Great move by Tesla. Should clear out lots of the early orders and give many regular buyers a much quicker delivery.
 
Just a heads up: big volcano eruption incoming in Iceland. Also, most of the major flight paths from the upper east coast into Europe look like they're through...Iceland...please confirm, anybody.


BOS-DUB-BOS normally goes comfortably south of Iceland. But I had a recent flight where it went closer, in fact flying over Greenland. May have been chasing winds or something.

When Eyjafjallajökull erupted in 2010 material in the volcanic dust cloud caused 95,000 flights to be canceled in Europe.
It led to engine manufacturers defining limits for density of the dust.


This is unusual. Tesla has a clause in the Cybertruck purchase that you can't resell it to a third party within a year or face a potential $50K lawsuit from Tesla. Tesla has the right of first refusal to repurchase it from buyer.


I believe other manufacturers have done similar things. They want the vehicles to go to fan(boi)s.
 
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Gawd, can't anyone do a video properly? Do they not realize there are things like video editors???? And writing a script? You could take the same video, do proper cuts and voice overs and it would be 1 minute of useful information.
YouTube compensation starts at ten minute mark ? Probably not accurate but ten minutes means engagement component goes up ?
 
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So all the youtubers and others that ordered 10,20 even 50 cybertrucks to lock in FSD and use them as robotaxis will have to give up their early orders.

With no robotaxi in sight the backup plan was to buy and resell for a profit.

Great move by Tesla. Should clear out lots of the early orders and give many regular buyers a much quicker delivery.

Hmmm, I'm kinda worried that you might be right.

I do want to cash in the reservation for a CT, but I was counting on the SP to be there to support the purchase. It better get a move on if my place in line might be moving up a year or two in the queue. :oops:
 
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We passed through Grindavik - the so-far only evacuated town - twice in April. The infamous Blue Lagoon is just to the north of town. I highly approve of volcanoes....but I fervently wish the best for all in the Reykjanes and further afield.

And to place on topic, there is no automobile than a Tesla (and other EVs) better equipped to deal with the most common/widespread action of an eruption: ashfall. No air intake filters to clog up and stop a combustion engine from, well, combusting.
 
How is it legal for a corporation to decide what one can or cannot do with the sale of their own personal property? I understand the purpose, and do not plan on selling my Cybertruck; but egad man, let's let the markets function. They didn't cap the Short Shorts or Not-A-Flamethrower or kid's Cyberquad resale. I mean c'mon, no one wants to live in a corporatocracy.
 
How is it legal for a corporation to decide what one can or cannot do with the sale of their own personal property? I understand the purpose, and do not plan on selling my Cybertruck; but egad man, let's let the markets function. They didn't cap the Short Shorts or Not-A-Flamethrower or kid's Cyberquad resale. I mean c'mon, no one wants to live in a corporatocracy.
I don't see it as being any different than buying a house that has a HOA covenant attached that tells you what you can do with it.

The terms are up front and if you don't agree you are free to not purchase it.
 
I don't see it as being any different than buying a house that has a HOA covenant attached that tells you what you can do with it.

The terms are up front and if you don't agree you are free to not purchase it.

That's a good perspective. I think the difference might be that an HOA is a governing body established in the common interests of a community. That isn't really the purpose of a car company; but I suppose Tesla isn't your conventional car company. The irony is that Elon thinks rules are dumb...yet, at times, he too is the bringer of dumb rules. So the most likely outcome is the most ironic one, I forget who said that but...
 
This is unusual. Tesla has a clause in the Cybertruck purchase that you can't resell it to a third party within a year or face a potential $50K lawsuit from Tesla. Tesla has the right of first refusal to repurchase it from buyer.

Where is the proof this is real? All I have seen so far is a claim by a questionable and publicity-seeking wannabee influencer.