Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

One interesting piece of news was this x.com clarification by Martin Viecha of a Gary Black Tweet. Martin told a group of investors that Tesla is presently in a lull between 3/Y introduction and the coming intro of Generation 3 vehicles.

We need to be careful around Gary Black right now: he planted the idea of a "lull", not Martin who's actual tweet just says "we're between 2 major growth waves":

Martin Viecha on X: "@Garyblack00 What I said specifically is that we're between two major growth waves: the first driven by 3/Y platform since 2017 and the next one that will be driven by the next gen vehicle." / X (Nov 14, 2023)​

Be careful around Gary. He's been selling TSLA as recently as Oct. Now he's telling Longs they should change the way they think about growth in 2023 and '24. Gary is being disengenuous with this because he knows full well that Tesla never guided for '50% every year'. Their guidance since 2020 is for an average of 50% growth over the decade, with some years more and some years less. We're ahead of projections right now, with a clear path forward for future growth (Megafactory Shanghai, CT+Gen 3 @Austin, Berlin phase 2, Giga Mexico).

BTW, why is Gary talking about comments made at a Deutsche Bank meeting that he wasn't invited to? To talk his book, of course.

All this is after being long-time wrong on Tesla advertising. Gary loves to spout "inelasticity of demand" for Tesla price cuts, without showing his work. The reality is that Tesla has cut prices in lock-step with increases in financing costs to keep monthly car payments affordable. This IS NOT the retail price of the car, which is all Gary talks about for 'demand'. All the while, he ignores the plain fact that most people need to finance their car purchases. Do that analysis and suddenly its "Splat: Mercedes is Advertising their Price Cuts!"

So as always: Careful analysis pays.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Krugerrand]

BTW, anyone know if the Shorties have a support group to keep their spirits up in moments like this?
I'm sure we HODLers are all very concerned with their well-being.

If so, it might be a nice gesture to send a flower arrangement with our condolences to their meeting place. Tulips, perhaps?
Or, maybe something Addams Family-ish, like a Venus Fly-trap, may be more apropos.

To be fair, the SP is only low to mid 200 range. Nothing to cheer about, imo. Shorts, detractors, liars and cheats have kind of been winning for a while.

New headline from Reuters:

Exclusive: GM snatches key Tesla gigacasting supplier



Not exclusive
Not key anything supplier
GM didn’t snatch

 

[FreqFlyer]

Exclusive: GM snatches key Tesla gigacasting supplier

If you can't beat them, buy them.

www.reuters.com

 

[SOULPEDL]

I may have underestimated how early FOMO can occur pre-Nov 30th CT delivery event (as some pointed out yesterday). Or did I?

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong and it's all those Tesla catalysts combined that are compelling investors to take notice... like the revenue channels chart posted earlier today. But stories like that never moved TSLA in the past... so why now?

Maybe it's the Fed actions and indicators moving growth stock in general - INTC hit 40 (finally, high for the year) despite the Nvidia pressures with their Windows OS capable ARM chips coming in 2025. So then maybe this run has nothing to do with CT and all about the macro still? Was the penalty for TSLA's "growth stock" label really hurting it by this much? If so, the CT FOMO has yet to begin, or may have little effect other than maybe a sell-off on the news.

When we saw the Fed give gut punches this past year to all growth stocks, TSLA dropped 3x the amount as the other growth stocks. So the reverse is happening now, right?

Bullish AF!

Edit: Even Beyond Meat BYND is up today - must be an UP kinda day

 

[2daMoon]

To be fair, the SP is only low to mid 200 range. Nothing to cheer about, imo. Shorts, detractors, liars and cheats have kind of been winning for a while.

Fair enough. Perhaps I'm being a tad manic, but, there's nothing amiss with planning for the future.
"Kill 'em with kindness" can be a rewarding endeavor,...

so long as the stated goal is achieved. ​

 

[Artful Dodger]

US: GMC Hummer EV Pickup Sales Down 83 Percent In Q2 2023

In Q2, only 47 electric Hummer vehicles were delivered to customers in the US, which is almost 83% less than a year ago (272).

insideevs.com

Mabbe its coz those 47 hummers still represent 50 tons of batteries?!

GM doesn't have a battery shortage, they have a battery sink!

 

[2daMoon]

Exclusive: GM snatches key Tesla gigacasting supplier

If you can't beat them, buy them.

www.reuters.com

I'm sure that over time this will be categorized as another way that Mary has led.
It could rank right up there with other epic strategic moves such as partnering with Nikola and Lordstown Motors.

 

[hobbes]

Interview with Volkswagen CEO Schäfer on future plans regarding switch to EVs and the competition - I am not sure I buy his strategy...

VW-Chef: "Elektromobilität ist nicht aufzuhalten"

VW-Chef Thomas Schäfer über aktuelle Herausforderungen der Elektromobilität, einen neuen E-Golf und die Planungen für zwei Günstig-Stromer.

edison-media.translate.goog

@avoigt has some comments on this on Twitter (this is just one of many tweets on this interview):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724706456757326011

 

[2daMoon]

I may have underestimated how early FOMO can occur pre-Nov 30th CT delivery event (as some pointed out yesterday). Or did I?

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong and it's all those Tesla catalysts combined that are compelling investors to take notice... like the revenue channels chart posted earlier today. But stories like that never moved TSLA in the past... so why now?

Maybe it's the Fed actions and indicators moving growth stock in general - INTC hit 40 (finally, high for the year) despite the Nvidia pressures with their Windows OS capable ARM chips coming in 2025. So then maybe this run has nothing to do with CT and all about the macro still? Was the penalty for TSLA's "growth stock" label really hurting it by this much? If so, the CT FOMO has yet to begin, or may have little effect other than maybe a sell-off on the news.

When we saw the Fed give gut punches this past year to all growth stocks, TSLA dropped 3x the amount as the other growth stocks. So the reverse is happening now, right?

Bullish AF!

Edit: Even Beyond Meat BYND is up today - must be an UP kinda day

Maybe a wave of investors are seeing through the smoke-screen of "EV demand problems" legacy OEMs are claiming and have realized the (Tesla) trend is their friend.

 

[larmor]

BTW, anyone know if the Shorties have a support group to keep their spirits up in moments like this?
I'm sure we HODLers are all very concerned with their well-being.

If so, it might be a nice gesture to send a flower arrangement with our condolences to their meeting place. Tulips, perhaps?
Or, maybe something Addams Family-ish, like a Venus Fly-trap, may be more apropos.

Short sellers have a support group it is the sec, they protect all types of businesses including those who use investments to devalue companies. They operate freely by pushing the market how they want with small news snippets and choice diction.

 

[lafrisbee]

So you're just crazy.

That's not anything Cyber. It's an armored SWAT vehicle that toys have replicated since the 80s.

Again, that toy has nothing to do with Tesla, Cybertruck, or EVs.

No one sane would make that connection.

It's still odd how you insist the Cybertruck is not a truck...makes about as much sense is your wild leap about the Hess toy.

Thank you.

 

[2daMoon]

Short sellers have a support group it is the sec, they protect all types of businesses including those who use investments to devalue companies. They operate freely by pushing the market how they want with small news snippets and choice diction.

Okay, thanks.

Then,
100 F Street, NE
Washington, DC 20549
is where to send the flowers?

 

[AudubonB]

Come on, $Two Four Six point Eight! That’s what we'll appreciate!
Go TSLA Go go go!

…the only kind of numerology I barely will countenance….

 

[2daMoon]

Come on, $Two Four Six point Eight! That’s what we'll appreciate!
Go TSLA Go go go!

…the only kind of numerology I barely will countenance….

My, aren't you "cheery" this morning.

 

[elasalle]

Xi Jinping meeting Biden.
Fear mongering on China/US relations, Tesla etc getting a reprieve ....

 

[Todd Burch]

Y’all celebrating sub $250 prices as if we weren’t over $400 years ago.

Control yourselves. We’re a long way from where we should be.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If we are now seeing run rates of 1,500 units a day, and those @Troyteslike figures are correct then that is a significant increase on Model 3 Shanghai production, with quarterly run rate at 135k units

Quarterly run rates can't be calculated from daily production rate because each quarter includes downtime. Typically, there are 339 production days in 1 year, or about 85 days in a Quarter. China is also special because of the week long national holidays in Oct and Feb.

Further, Giga Shanghai was special in 2022 in that they took production time off at the end of the Quarter (Western holidays, but mayhave been comp. time off for covfefe overtime ).

So let's say 75 production days at a blended 1,300 avg cars/day, that's roundly 100K Models 3 produced at Giga Shanghai in Q4 2023. Even with no extra time off, at 1,500/day that's about a 125K/qtr steady run-rate for Highland. Which is good.

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

Y’all celebrating sub $250 prices as if we weren’t over $400 years ago.

Control yourselves. We’re a long way from where we should be.

I can celebrate even more the higher the SP goes. No problem.

Thanks for your concern.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Interview with Volkswagen CEO Schäfer on future plans regarding switch to EVs and the competition - I am not sure I buy his strategy...

VW-Chef: "Elektromobilität ist nicht aufzuhalten"

VW-Chef Thomas Schäfer über aktuelle Herausforderungen der Elektromobilität, einen neuen E-Golf und die Planungen für zwei Günstig-Stromer.

edison-media.translate.goog

@avoigt has some comments on this on Twitter (this is just one of many tweets on this interview):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1724706456757326011

Wow, does he ever sugar coat it with how well their ICE is doing, and then taking credit for being in all parts of the industry, not just EVs.
Meanwhile, about those 20,000 jobs at VW...

Spoiler: This one screen shot says it all:

 

[geometro]

Here is something I can't get my head around... why have there been so many CyberTruck sightings all over the country in advance of the 11/30 event? I don't recall Tesla ever doing this.
Last night, there was a video which amounted to a walk-through of the interior and truck bed... so what exactly could be shown on 11/30?

Of course, we are still missing specs-- pricing, range, 0-60, etc; but not much on the final finish of the product.