Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

This is from the Options Thread. To my point about the 30RSI, this may help you decide @GhostSkater . If history is a guide, the SP should bounce hard, soon, and fast

the last 11 times RSI was ~30, TSLA bounced

View attachment 1008514

 

[GhostSkater]

Not advice: could sell Calls at the price you'd be willing to accept if they execute. Use those funds to buy Puts to lock in the amount the capital you'll need in your time frame. If the SP goes up and down, you may be hooped, you'll have to watch and react. Should really ask over in "the Wheel" thread.

Sadly, or for my own good, I don't have access to options

Spread it around is what I would do. My account does not support options. But I sometimes get helpful info on timing my sales from that other thread.

Thanks, will take a look there

Normally I would suggest selling calls rather than shares, but right now is not the moment for that either, unless you also have a good cash pile, the you could sell September 270 straddles at $80 a go ($8000 per paired contract)

No options for me, and September is way too far in the future

I would definitely wait a while, after earnings for sure, but I would try to include as much of the cybertruck ramp as possible.
The ramp of the CT seems to be going very well, there have been no big embarrassing failures, no bad reviews, no obvious design problems or recalls. The CT release, and the highland update both seem to have gone surprisingly well, given Tesla's often chaotic history.

I think it takes a while for the implications of highland and CT to be visible to wall st. The stock feels unusually pushed down to me at the moment. I think Q4 earnings will likely be a tad better than expected, but I also suspect this years guidance to be good.
So hard to predict though.

This is a good suggestion, we will see the Highland impact this quarter, maybe not fully since it will have to ramp again, maybe in Q2, but by then Juniper might be happening and we will have to wait even more to have a full picture

*NOT ADVICE, JUST THINKING ALOUD*

Historically speaking over the last 5 years, the early Feb thru early Mar timeframe has been a great time to sell TSLA stock or options. We tend to see relative maxima of sort of a few months duration land in this timeframe. One very strong reason for this is that TSLA, being the biggest options play on Wall Street for ohhhhh a decade now, tends to be very heavy in the LEAPS department; the price action gets suppressed until after 3rd week in Jan expiry. Selling in Jan isn't probably the best timing.

Secondly, from a TA perspective: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is entering extremely oversold territory now, and we are below the 200 DMA, and riding the lower Bollinger Band hard. Translation: selling soon isn't probably the best timing.

Lastly, Momma Cathie just backed up the Brinks truck to buy $25M in shares. This is another indication we are probably at a relative minimum, so a good time to buy is probably an indication that it is a poor time to sell.

If I were to sell (NOT ADVICE), I would not sell at all until at least mid Feb to give the SP time to get above the 200DMA (hopefully the 100:50:30[mid-bollinger band]) as well as above 50RSI. If I could wait longer, I may consider it depending on how the setup looks then. If I was getting near the time I had to sell in Feb, I would probably only sell a third of that which I intended, then reevaluate market sentiment and technical indicators at that time. We should have a much better feel after Elon delivers his Tesla talk after the 10k.

Just IMHO...

Oh really nice data and analysis, I might try to hold as much as possible, I'm still exploring some other cash sources so I don't have to touch my portfolio, but I reached the conclusion that if it comes to that, screw it, let's use for something that might be a really good non monetary return




This part is not a reply for the posts above, but more of a reflection that might help others. I've been a bit lost since losing my job 2 to 3 months ago due to the company going bankrupt, and while I haven't even applied anywhere, I don't see much light

The question I asked myself is "If Tesla 10x, or even 100x tomorrow, I had to never worry about money again, would that bring me peace, happiness, purpose, etc etc? The answer is a definitely no. Sure, I could do what I'm about to do without using almost half of my net worth, so in that way, wouldn't have fear of it not working and the money being wasted

On another hand, I never knew what I was saving and investing for. Lets save for the future and all that, but I never knew what that was, someone once said "Give me money, I don't care", which is kind of the vibe I'm going for, money helps, but only if you have a path, a purpose, something to live for or at least that makes you want to wake up everyday

Let's see what life brings, and also, if it goes well I might be able to buy back what I sold and more in a few months, with the best outcome being getting FSD for free

 

[Musskiah]

Sadly, or for my own good, I don't have access to options

Thanks, will take a look there

No options for me, and September is way too far in the future

This is a good suggestion, we will see the Highland impact this quarter, maybe not fully since it will have to ramp again, maybe in Q2, but by then Juniper might be happening and we will have to wait even more to have a full picture




This part is not a reply for the posts above, but more of a reflection that might help others. I've been a bit lost since losing my job 2 to 3 months ago due to the company going bankrupt, and while I haven't even applied anywhere, I don't see much light

The question I asked myself is "If Tesla 10x, or even 100x tomorrow, I had to never worry about money again, would that bring me peace, happiness, purpose, etc etc? The answer is a definitely no. Sure, I could do what I'm about to do without using almost half of my net worth, so in that way, wouldn't have fear of it not working and the money being wasted

On another hand, I never knew what I was saving and investing for. Lets save for the future and all that, but I never knew what that was, someone once said "Give me money, I don't care", which is kind of the vibe I'm going for, money helps, but only if you have a path, a purpose, something to live for or at least that makes you want to wake up everyday

Let's see what life brings, and also, if it goes well I might be able to buy back what I sold and more in a few months, with the best outcome being getting FSD for free

I really like this perspective. I can relate. I had to sell some shares when I relocated and changed jobs. I decided to take a year off to enjoy my young children. TSLA gave me this freedom. I am young. I was fortunate to catch the last runup bigly - an enormous change in wealth, for me, so why not enjoy some of it! So I sold about 25%. I slept better and took time to look for a killer new career path. Win win. Thank you so much for your thinking around this - it's nice to relate to your situation.

 

[aronth5]

Internet is blowing up about one of the first non-employee deliveries

Tesla Cybertruck gets delivered with ridiculous body defects

Tesla has delivered one of the very first Cybertrucks to a customer who is not a Tesla employee and it...

electrek.co

It's going to happen on these early builds, new production process, new material...hell it still happens on the MY/S/X/3.

Some additional information that helps to put the problem into context.
Starts @2:00 but it's important to watch thru the whole section for additional photo and Rob Mauer's commentary.

 

[GhostSkater]

I really like this perspective. I can relate. I had to sell some shares when I relocated and changed jobs. I decided to take a year off to enjoy my young children. TSLA gave me this freedom. I am young. I was fortunate to catch the last runup bigly - an enormous change in wealth, for me, so why not enjoy some of it! So I sold about 25%. I slept better and took time to look for a killer new career path. Win win. Thank you so much for your thinking around this - it's nice to relate to your situation.

It's the only path forward, all the others I roughly now the future outcome, this one, no idea what it will happen. I'm packing my bag, probably leaving most if not all I have behind, getting on a plane and trying to start again somewhere else

I will be honest, when I look at my spreadsheet with the costs of everything until I get to the point I can start looking for a job and getting paid, it makes me a bit sick on the stomach, but the upside potential is huge

And definitely worth in your case, time is the most important currency, sadly I "wasted" around 3 years of it on something that I didn't think there was the possibility of going wrong, and well...

 

[NicoV]

Tesla will start production of the next gen Roadster in 2024.
If not, I already have my prediction for 2025 ready.

Rumors of an imminent release of the roadster in Q2: https://x.com/huddster2/status/1746210723464888828?s=61&t=dCmx85rrS4NKW9jYFM2Iug

 

[Cosmacelf]

Rumors of an imminent release of the roadster in Q2: https://x.com/huddster2/status/1746210723464888828?s=61&t=dCmx85rrS4NKW9jYFM2Iug

I’ll believe it when I see it. From a strategic point of view, not sure why since they have a brand new Halo car now, the cybertruck.

 

[alhounos]

No way roadster is happening anytime soon.

 

[Musskiah]

It's the only path forward, all the others I roughly now the future outcome, this one, no idea what it will happen. I'm packing my bag, probably leaving most if not all I have behind, getting on a plane and trying to start again somewhere else

I will be honest, when I look at my spreadsheet with the costs of everything until I get to the point I can start looking for a job and getting paid, it makes me a bit sick on the stomach, but the upside potential is huge

And definitely worth in your case, time is the most important currency, sadly I "wasted" around 3 years of it on something that I didn't think there was the possibility of going wrong, and well...

I spent 13 years working with family; I was going to buy the business, thought it was my life plan. We plan, life laughs. It had other plans. I went through all the phases of grief. Simply put, after all the feelings, my conclusion is that the best is yet to come. I am exactly where I am supposed to be. So are you.

 

[Skryll]

Just checked out the highland m3 which
even more importantly than the cool multicolor light strips inside comes with a rear screen for the back passengers, standard. You can play movies and games but also move front right passenger seat forward and backward from the rear screen controls to gain more space.

I was blown away when I sat in the car, it really feels like a step up in luxury.

When looking into the back of a model y in the same store I got a feeling that this may Osborne modely until it's refreshed as well.

 

[GOVA]

Looks like Elon needs to lay off the Diablo and start working out again

Any pills that cure any disease, obesity included, I a bitch. Once you discontinue using them the symptoms reappear. Pills ain't the answer.

 

[Drumheller]

Rumors of an imminent release of the roadster in Q2: https://x.com/huddster2/status/1746210723464888828?s=61&t=dCmx85rrS4NKW9jYFM2Iug

 

[Paul_SF]

Here we go.... 10X of the previous plan?

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1746356897815421025?s=20

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Rumors of an imminent release of the roadster in Q2: https://x.com/huddster2/status/1746210723464888828?s=61&t=dCmx85rrS4NKW9jYFM2Iug

I think if that were true there would be sightings of beta roadsters on public streets by now

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla can't make the Roadster in volume (and they won't produce it in drips) without first having mass production of 4680 cells in Fremont. Conversely, Telsa has to make Roadster after 4680 production starts because the cells have to be put to use (profitably, like 'Beast' mode CT)

​

Optimus Subprime on X: "BREAKING: TESLA ROADSTER I just left the Tesla service center. Two senior techs from their shop were shipped back to HQ last week to begin their training for the new Roadster. Release is imminent. Roadster coming at the beginning of Q2. Let’s go!!!" /X​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746210723464888828

TL;dw we shouldn't be watching the streets for Roadsters, we should be watching the Employee parking lot for commuters (and the roof for spinning fans and steam from EVAPCO roof-mount dehumidifying units).

 

[Musskiah]

Tesla can't make the Roadster in volume (and they won't produce it in drips) without first having mass production of 4680 cells in Fremont. Conversely, Telsa has to make Roadster after 4680 production starts because the cells have to be put to use (profitably, like 'Beast' mode CT)

​

Optimus Subprime on X: "BREAKING: TESLA ROADSTER I just left the Tesla service center. Two senior techs from their shop were shipped back to HQ last week to begin their training for the new Roadster. Release is imminent. Roadster coming at the beginning of Q2. Let’s go!!!" /X​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746210723464888828

TL;dw we shouldn't be watching the streets for Roadsters, we should be watching the Employee parking lot for commuters (and the roof for spinning fans and steam from EVAPCO roof-mount dehumidifying units).

View attachment 1008709

Would you please spell that last part out for me? The commuters and steam from EVAPCO units signify 4680 lines coming to life?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Would you please spell that last part out for me? The commuters and steam from EVAPCO units signify 4680 lines coming to life?

Look at Joe Tegtmeyers's videos from Giga Texas last week. Those roof mounted EVAPCO units are spinning, and releasing plumes of steam. That means they're making battery cells in the 4680 cell lines located in the NW corner of the factory (Joe even explains the connection between humidty and cell production in his narrative).

People should really follow Joe.

 

[Musskiah]

Look at Joe Tegtmeyers's videos from Giga Texas last week. Those roof mounted EVAPCO units are spinning, and releasing plumes of steam. That means they're making battery cells in the 4680 cell lines located in the NW corner of the factory (Joe even explains the connection between humidty and cell production in his narrative).

People should really follow Joe.

Ha! This person will start to. I wish he made a highlight reel.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ha! This person will start to. I wish he made a highlight reel.

Watch his ~2min intros to each video. Any news is featured up front, usually with stills. He also does review videos periodically, on top of his normal M-W-F drone flight vidz.

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla can't make the Roadster in volume (and they won't produce it in drips) without first having mass production of 4680 cells in Fremont.

At $250,000 Tesla can't make the roadster in volume because there's not a volume of buyers for a $250,000 car.

Tesla has already been making 4680 in plenty enough volume for a low-production car like Roadster for a while now.

Conversely, Telsa has to make Roadster after 4680 production starts because the cells have to be put to use (profitably, like 'Beast' mode CT)

Putting them in Ys, to free up 2170s to enable tax credits on the model 3, would be a great way to use them in volume.

So would scaling CT faster.

Putting them in roadsters (if true) tells me they're doing the OPPOSITE of mass producing 4680s out there-- they're producing them in such low #s they don't have enough for a volume vehicle.