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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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On this site, we have discussed the challenges involved in going from 2,000,000 cars a year to 10,000000 a year or more. Tesla has a huge amount on its plate with new and expanding existing factories thats for sure. The shear volume of vehicles needed is also going to run into the desire of many people for a car that looks/is different from their neighbors. That is one reason you see so many colors, models and trims from current companies. Around here there are a sea of white Ys. I’ve seen a few with modifications to make theirs different. Even Henry Ford couldn’t sell only one color forever. Expansion of choice will have to come at that point, and it will be interesting to see how Tesla handles it.
 
Latest GigaIndia updates. Key takeaways:

“If it works out, this will the biggest foreign direct investment commitment in India. Tesla will invest $3 billion in the plant and other partners in its manufacturing ecosystem will invest another $10 billion. In parallel, there will be another $5 billion investment in batteries that will grow to $15 billion. We are looking at a total of $30 billion,” said a person close to the company and involved in discussions on the project."

"Within India, Tesla is considering four major auto manufacturing hubs to set up its plant -- Haryana (which will help cater to the biggest market in NCR), Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. But given the major plans for export, it is likely that, if it does invest, Tesla may opt for a coastal state in the west or south."

*So Tesla is NOT set on Gujarat.

2 SOURCE LINKS...


 
Leases for Model 3 start at $339/mth. Model Y leases start at $399. The IRA benefit is rolled into the lease. It's still a more attractive vehicle at the entry level.

Except as already pointed out to you several times- there's no path to actually owning the vehicle that way unless Tesla changes its leasing policy.

Last year you could do what you suggest- OR actually own the vehicle with a purchase. Roughly 98% of buyers avoided the lease option according to Teslas own reports of % of deliveries subject to lease accounting.
 
Latest GigaIndia updates. Key takeaways:

“If it works out, this will the biggest foreign direct investment commitment in India. Tesla will invest $3 billion in the plant and other partners in its manufacturing ecosystem will invest another $10 billion. In parallel, there will be another $5 billion investment in batteries that will grow to $15 billion. We are looking at a total of $30 billion,” said a person close to the company and involved in discussions on the project."

"Within India, Tesla is considering four major auto manufacturing hubs to set up its plant -- Haryana (which will help cater to the biggest market in NCR), Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. But given the major plans for export, it is likely that, if it does invest, Tesla may opt for a coastal state in the west or south."

*So Tesla is NOT set on Gujarat.

2 SOURCE LINKS...


The $30 billion number is too hard to believe..
 
There are about 8 dehumidifier units mounted inside the roof (under the ceiling) at the NW corner of the Giga Texas battery plant. You'd have to go back at least a year (maybe 2) to see them being hoisted to the roof in one of Joe's videos, but these screen shots from Jan 5, 2024 show the plume of steam coming out of the roof right those units are housed (I don't recall if Joe showed us the brand as being EVAPCO, but that's a generic discriptor used for their function).
Oh, I know there are units beneath the roof, but you called out evapcos above the roof with spinning fans.

SmartSelect_20240114_123053_Firefox.jpg


The most known evapco units from those who follow (or are new to following) Giga Texas are the cathode plant ones where the fans are visible and which the image resembled, adding to the confusion.
SmartSelect_20240114_122217_Firefox.jpg
SmartSelect_20240114_122516_Firefox.jpg


Ha, glad you noticed that in the file name I used for precisely that reason! It's meant to be illustrative Do you need to see what's inside the roof or is the steam enough? :p
Didn't see filename, used reverse image after realizing the site wasn't Texas. Might be helpful to call out example imagery as such in the post.
 
Sure, I'll bite. Let's talk about "context."

What Elon has received will be used to fund other projects. Such as addressing climate change, and funding mankind's migration to other planets. It is not as if he spends his fortune in his "leisure time" as he really doesn't have much of that sort of time anyway. He doesn't own a home, nor share the wants and needs of the majority of those who judge him.

So, to Elon, "that would be nice" is more likely to mean "it would be nice to have a higher budget on hand for future projects." This will benefit everyone, so it shouldn't be pigeon-holed as if he is greedy.

Most normal folk would immediately interpret the statement in a more straight-forward manner, thinking about how they would use such largess. Such as having a boatload of cash to spend on personal wants and keeping up with the neighbors spending habits. This is a context more akin to how they feel when they win from a scratch-off ticket, get a cost of living raise, or find a twenty laying on the sidewalk.

Any talk about Elon's pay scale should be made in context with what he does with the wealth. Seldom is anything about Elon that is found in popular media contextual to how markedly different he is from most others.

It is not as if anyone else is actively trying to save the world and planning today for humanity's future hundreds of years out.

So, yes, that would be nice for Elon to receive an astounding boon from the success of Tesla, as it will be put to good use. Even if folks are unable to see that because they can't see the future from Elon's eyes.

The myopia experienced by those judging Elon from the standards they have set for themselves will keep hidden in the unfocused haze of their limited perception any viewpoint of a grander scale which they do not have the ability to imagine.
What???

In statements in 2018 Elon said "If all that happens over the next 10 years is that Tesla’s value grows by 80 or 90 percent, then my amount of compensation would be zero" and "I actually see the potential for Tesla to become a trillion-dollar company within a 10-year period". So this was very obviously seen as a 10-year payment plan. He can ask for a raise in 2028.

Disregarding that.

Should every person on earth get paid differently depending on if they are doing something "good" with the money. That would be some giant can of worms.

Are you gonna decide who qualifies? Or can I?

I agree Elon is doing good stuff (mostly). But why should Tesla shareholders pay him (specifically) for that?
 

Last sentence could be what Elon answered and does not match the paragraph.


Venting his frustrations on X... is this a sign the board is refusing to give him a new comp plan?

I personally don't mind a little dilution if we reach such market cap and cash flow targets like last time, but...

Is Musk tone-def? Earnings are declining and share price has been flat / down for years. His employees rely decently on the stock based part of their compensation and they aren't that pleased either (the ones I've talked to, not pissed but not pleased). Is it a great time to be clamoring for a larger payout than his ~ 20% equity in the company?
 
Do you need to see what's inside the roof or is the steam enough? :p

Joe Tegtmeyer captured this image during his drone flight on Aug 02, 2021: (@mongo )

"They are re-installing the roof decking over the cooling system"​

snapshot.JoeT.2021-08-02.16-01.jpg

And Jeff Roberts captured video of the actual delivery of two large crates for cathode and anode production equipment of Nov 02, 2021: (Bonus: at time index 03:27 of this video you can see what the cooling units looked like with their covers installed - thumbnail below)

Tesla Gigafactory Austin 4K Day 468 - 11/2/21 - 4680 BATTERY CELL PROD. EQUIPMENT AT GIGA TEXAS!


Here are tweets from Nov 2021 about the Giga Texas cathode/anode equipment arrival:
Giga Texas NW rooftop as it appeard on Nov 02, 2021:

snapshot.JeffR.2021-11-02.03-27.jpg
 
Might be helpful to call out example imagery as such in the post.

Might be even more helpful call out that you knew there are cooling units in the roof, which is my NON-PEDANTIC point. The steam coming out of the roof indicates that anode/cathode material is being produced there, which is the ACTUAL point, since people upthread did not understand that that work is ongoing at Giga Texas.

But thanks for jumping in with this MULTI-HOUR diversion... because those cooling units might not be EVAPCO brand? Or because the don't spin? Sheesh. Good thing I'm stuck inside today due to the polar vortex (which is also spinning, btw) :p

gfs_nh-sat1_t2_d1.2024-01-14.png
 
What???

In statements in 2018 Elon said "If all that happens over the next 10 years is that Tesla’s value grows by 80 or 90 percent, then my amount of compensation would be zero" and "I actually see the potential for Tesla to become a trillion-dollar company within a 10-year period". So this was very obviously seen as a 10-year payment plan. He can ask for a raise in 2028.

Disregarding that.

Should every person on earth get paid differently depending on if they are doing something "good" with the money. That would be some giant can of worms.

Are you gonna decide who qualifies? Or can I?

I agree Elon is doing good stuff (mostly). But why should Tesla shareholders pay him (specifically) for that?

Um, I'm gonna let the Tesla board of directors decide what portion of the profits go where.

But, yes, everybody working should have their pay determined by what they are giving in exchange.

If one person is providing basic labor and paying bills, and another person is providing creative input, paying bills, and is envisioning how to apply excess income to achieve a brighter future, the latter will likely be earning more than the first. Though, this will be more a matter of cause and effect than it is anyone making a decision beforehand to pay them a higher wage.

Hopefully the Tesla BoD will place their bets on proven winners. (there are other star players at Tesla than only Elon)
 
Venting his frustrations on X... is this a sign the board is refusing to give him a new comp plan?

I personally don't mind a little dilution if we reach such market cap and cash flow targets like last time, but...

Is Musk tone-def? Earnings are declining and share price has been flat / down for years. His employees rely decently on the stock based part of their compensation and they aren't that pleased either (the ones I've talked to, not pissed but not pleased). Is it a great time to be clamoring for a larger payout than his ~ 20% equity in the company?

d50749797714a6c79cc24b101ba5e43d.jpg

How did you make the leap from Elon writing "that would be nice" (because, wouldn't it be?), all the way to, Elon is "clamoring for a larger payout" beyond the stake he owns in the company?

Have you considered writing FUD professionally?
 
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The $30 billion number is too hard to believe..
It's a fully baked number for political purposes. The $3b for the vehicle plant sounds more in line with the Tesla investment in the Mexico plant, with cheaper labour. If we added all the supplier investment into Mexico we end up at $15b too.

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...bln-mexico-factory-local-governor-2023-09-12/

I'd guess the battery investment covering the other $15b would be a phase 2 event.

So Tesla is on the hook for $3b at inception, which doesn't sound too crazy. That said, I'd be much happier knowing there was a market in India that will accept decent Tesla vehicle volume before Tesla commits to a factory.
 
Might be even more helpful call out that you knew there are cooling units in the roof, which is my NON-PEDANTIC point. The steam coming out of the roof indicates that anode/cathode material is being produced there, which is the ACTUAL point, since people upthread did not understand that that work is ongoing at Giga Texas.

But thanks for jumping in with this MULTI-HOUR diversion... because those cooling units might not be EVAPCO brand? Or because the don't spin? Sheesh. Good thing I'm stuck inside today due to the polar vortex (which is also spinning, btw) :p

You want the whole thought process?
You posted:
TL;dw we shouldn't be watching the streets for Roadsters, we should be watching the Employee parking lot for commuters (and the roof for spinning fans and steam from EVAPCO roof-mount dehumidifying units).
Which gave me a record scratch because the only think resembling that are at the cathode plant. So I indentified with this reply post:
Would you please spell that last part out for me? The commuters and steam from EVAPCO units signify 4680 lines coming to life?
To which you again said:
Look at Joe Tegtmeyers's videos from Giga Texas last week. Those roof mounted EVAPCO units are spinning, and releasing plumes of steam. That means they're making battery cells in the 4680 cell lines located in the NW corner of the factory (Joe even explains the connection between humidty and cell production in his narrative).
And the poster you replied to stated:
Ha! This person will start to. I wish he made a highlight reel.
Wherein they may be confused by not seeing roof mounted evapcos with fans spinning, nor the units in the picture you posted.

Might be even more helpful call out that you knew there are cooling units in the roof, which is my NON-PEDANTIC point.
Had I realized that was even in question, I would have earlier. As it was, I did after your first reply.
Oh, I know there are units beneath the roof, but you called out evapcos above the roof with spinning fans.

To other points:
Are those units dehumidifiers, or are they are heat exchangers for the working fluid which then feed heaters, chillers, and dehumidifiers?

The steam coming out of the roof indicates that anode/cathode material is being produced there, which is the ACTUAL point,
Who has reported that Tesla is making anode or cathode material in the main building? Do you mean electrodes?
 
Venting his frustrations on X... is this a sign the board is refusing to give him a new comp plan?

I personally don't mind a little dilution if we reach such market cap and cash flow targets like last time, but...

Is Musk tone-def? Earnings are declining and share price has been flat / down for years. His employees rely decently on the stock based part of their compensation and they aren't that pleased either (the ones I've talked to, not pissed but not pleased). Is it a great time to be clamoring for a larger payout than his ~ 20% equity in the company?

In fairness to him, Musk’s last package was all or nothing. He receives no salary. If Tesla stock had gone nowhere since when the package was announced, he would have gotten nothing. Tesla Bears had a field day with the package back then claiming he would never see a dime of it.

I believe a majority of Musk’s Tesla stake comes from his early investments in the company. As mouth watering as his comp package was, it did not deliver as many shares as he acquired in the early pre-IPO days.
 
You want the whole thought process?

Nope, I'm still stuck on 'EVAPCO', per Joe Tegtmeyer on July 18, 2021:

"We start off in the battery cell area as you can see in the upper-lefthand corner and the right photo with the EVAPCO cooling system installation on the 4th floor and we also see the cementitious roof installation on top and its coming along quickly."​

Joe Tegtmeyer "Giga Texas Battery cell area EVAPCO cooling system installation" 18 July 2021


It's like Chris Rock says, "when you're playing basketball with a retarded kid (me), but you call him for double-dribbling (materials production vs anode/cathode production). Sometimes, you jus' gotta let some *sugar* slide..." :p

Cheers, and enjoy yer day!
 
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At $250,000 Tesla can't make the roadster in volume because there's not a volume of buyers for a $250,000 car.

Tesla has already been making 4680 in plenty enough volume for a low-production car like Roadster for a while now.

[...]
The real question is where they will mount the range extending battery on the roadster that gets them to the promised range with current battery technology. Replace passenger seat ?