Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Here we go.... 10X of the previous plan?

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1746356897815421025?s=20

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746356897815421025

Then pay the man! How engaged would you be in your job with no current comp package? I have done multiple posts on this—the last milestone of Elon Musk’s 2018 comp package was met in 2022. It is 2024. Elon Musk isn’t Tesla’s indentured servant. There is no current incentive comp plan. We would pay any other Tesla CEO! And they wouldn’t do as good of a job as Elon Musk. Give him a big huge goal—like making 10,000 Bots and Tesla’s market cap as big as Saudi + Aramco combined and watch him achieve it!! And no, holding shares isn’t incentive enough. Bezos quit. Gates quit. And he will use the money to further huge projects for humanity. Accelerate AI & Automation for good. Send more Starships to Space. It isn’t about mansions or yachts. Elon Musk has earned the right to show us what else he can do if he is given more capital to deploy.

Last sentence could be what Elon answered and does not match the paragraph.

 

[EQC_]

...
I was blown away when I sat in the [Highland Model 3]. it really feels like a step up in luxury.

When looking into the back of a model y in the same store I got a feeling that this may Osborne modely until it's refreshed as well.

Interesting...

Folks have been complaining that without the IRA credit, the 3 is too close in price to the larger Y, saying it would tank 3 sales as most would opt for the Y.

Your observation seems like a perfect answer: Tesla will be offering a fancier/more luxurious Model 3, or similar price for a bigger but less luxurious Y. Perhaps neither steals sales from each other, they just offer different appeal to folks with different wants/needs...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Your observation seems like a perfect answer: Tesla will be offering a fancier/more luxurious Model 3

Leases for Model 3 start at $339/mth. Model Y leases start at $399. The IRA benefit is rolled into the lease. It's still a more attractive vehicle at the entry level.

 

[MartinAustin]

Here we go.... 10X of the previous plan?

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1746356897815421025?s=20

Elon often hints at stuff that is definitely coming by saying "we are thinking about doing that" some time before the thing is revealed. Steer by wire is a recent example but there are many. With the Q4 TSLA earnings report coming out, perhaps there will be an announcement about a new earnings package.

 

[Chenkers]

Putting them in roadsters (if true) tells me they're doing the OPPOSITE of mass producing 4680s out there-- they're producing them in such low #s they don't have enough for a volume vehicle.

I wouldn't be so pessimistic. We know there are plenty of vehicles in development that can take increasing 4680 volumes and Tesla seem to be confident that the 4680 ramp can keep ahead of the Cybertruck ramp.

If the Roadster 2 does go into production, I see it as a sign that Tesla have now developed the 4680 chemistry to the point that the energy density is good enough for their highest performance halo car.

 

[Thekiwi]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746356897815421025

Last sentence could be what Elon answered and does not match the paragraph.

“Then pay the man! How engaged would you be in your job with no current comp package?”

lol this is some serious BS from “Amy” & also Elon with his reply, especially in context to the previous post they are replying to (included in photo below). Pay the man? PAY THE MAN!? He’s already received an absolutely gigantic payout, far in excess of anyone else alive has ever received. Now we shouldn’t expect full engagement from Elon because he isn’t currently lined up to get hundreds of billions/trillions more in another incentive package? That crazy talk. He’s the CEO of one of the largest companies on the planet and it is his duty to run the company to its maximum potential.

Im also curious what engagement would be expected if he was to receive a new massive comp package….would he agree to stop spending multiple days a week running other companies? I doubt it.

 

[cliff harris]

At $250,000 Tesla can't make the roadster in volume because there's not a volume of buyers for a $250,000 car.

Tesla has already been making 4680 in plenty enough volume for a low-production car like Roadster for a while now.



Putting them in Ys, to free up 2170s to enable tax credits on the model 3, would be a great way to use them in volume.

So would scaling CT faster.

Putting them in roadsters (if true) tells me they're doing the OPPOSITE of mass producing 4680s out there-- they're producing them in such low #s they don't have enough for a volume vehicle.

I agree they cannot, or rather would not, make the roadster in volume. Its a super high-end sports car. Making it in volume was never the plan.
But given any specific 4680 cell, Tesla would absolutely put it in a roadster, with huge profit margins, rather than a model Y, if the roadster was ready. I'll happily, as an investor, watch Q1 model Y production drop by 1,000 if that means Tesla make 1,000 roadsters instead.

 

[Christine69420]

I’ll believe it when I see it. From a strategic point of view, not sure why since they have a brand new Halo car now, the cybertruck.

For the rest of the world. I can buy a Roadster but not a Cybertruck.

If I had enough $$$ I would get both if the CT came to Europe.

IMHO the Roadster is way cooler than the Cybertruck. So I can dream about it. And then try to rent a CT when I visit the US.

 

[navguy12]

From The Globe and Mail, an anti EV/FUD editorial, couched in a virtue signalling conclusion that allows the continuation of the ICE world.

I spent a few hours trying to answer each of the arguments made by the author, to the person who sent me the link.

Can anyone speak to the details or context of China having thousands of new EV rotting in fields (I bolded it in the captured text)?

Pay walled, but this is a free "gifted" link; the screenshots of the actual article are there if the free link simply sends you to The Globe and Mail home page (as it seems to want to do with these "gifted" links):

Electric vehicle production mandates, like Canada’s, are so wrong on so many levels and could backfire

Putting aside waning consumer demand, here are four reasons why forcing manufacturers to pump out EVs is somewhere between wrong and outright loony

www.theglobeandmail.com

Any feeling that the electric vehicle market was overhyped was confirmed this week when Hertz took the off-ramp on the EV highway. The car-rental giant plans to unload 20,000 cars, about a third of its American EV fleet, and make up the shortfall with regular gasoline cars.

Weak rental demand, high maintenance costs and low resale prices were behind the about-face. When Hertz began loading up on EVs – all of them Teslas – in 2021, the move was seen as a vote of confidence in zero-tailpipe-emission motoring for the masses. The reversal signals the opposite and Hertz is not alone. EV sales in North American, Europe and elsewhere are rising at ever-diminishing rates and China, the biggest EV producer, is stuffing thousands of unwanted battery-powered cars in fields, where they are left to rot.

While manufacturers and consumers appear to have received the message that there is less to the EV “revolution” than meets the eye, governments have not. Canada last month unveiled regulations that will ban the sale of cars, light trucks and SUVs with tailpipe emissions starting in 2035. In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency wants two-thirds of new vehicles sold by 2032 to be electric. In Britain, the target is 80 per cent by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2035.

There is so much wrong with these government mandates - all in the name of fighting climate change and cleaning the air in cities - that it’s hard to believe that Western governments have turned into EV disciples. Putting aside waning consumer demand, here are four reasons why forcing manufacturers to pump out EVs is somewhere between wrong and outright loony.

Various reports say they are generally a quarter to a third more costly to buy, depending on government rebates and taxation. Governments everywhere seem to assume that EV prices will naturally decline as production increases and the metals used in making the cars – cobalt, nickel, copper, lithium, rare earths – become more plentiful. But will they? All of these metals are finite resources and there is simply not enough supply on Earth’s crust to convert 1.3 billion cars and light trucks to electric propulsion. Last year, copper sold for U$8,000 to US$9,000 per tonne, double the price in 2016, and new discoveries are rare. Politicians forcing the purchase of expensive cars while they raise fuel taxes risk annihilation.

Gift to China: Government EV mandates are cheered in China, whose battery and carmakers know that the Western auto industry will struggle to lift EV production fast enough to meet the onerous sales regulations. They would be happy to fill the gap and could do so fairly easily since China dominates the production and processing of most of the key metals used in batteries and electric motors. According to the International Energy Agency, Chinese companies process more than half of the world’s lithium, two-thirds of its cobalt, one-third of its nickel and more than 70 per cent of its graphite Three-quarters of all lithium-ion batteries, the main source of power for today’s EVs, are made in China. While enormous battery plants are under construction in Canada, United States and Europe, China’s long head start and relatively cheap production costs will ensure it will call the shots in the EV market for some time. The Chinese will soon export millions of EVs as they move up the value chain and flood the low-priced segments of the EV market, where the American and European car companies pay scant attention. In short, EV mandates stand to transfer wealth and jobs to China’s EV industry.

Cleaner, really?: Driving a car in, say, Quebec and Ontario, where most of the electricity comes from hydro, solar, wind and nuclear, makes environmental sense. In most other parts of the planet, where fossil fuels dominate power generation, it does not. In Alberta, almost 90 per cent of the electricity comes from burning coal and natural gas. When you plug in an EV there, you are merely transferring the emissions from the car tailpipe to the smokestack. Ottawa is dreaming if it thinks Alberta’s electricity production will become as green as Quebec’s or Ontario’s within the next decade. At the same time, no country has figured out how to dispose of car batteries, or recycle their toxic materials, in a safe and clean way. Visions of millions of batteries piled into landfills should horrify politicians, but apparently do not. Will governments, having spent lavishly to finance EV purchase incentives, soon be forced to spend billions to subsidize battery recycling plants? Wait for it.

EVs are still cars: They still have to be parked, still need roads and still kill pedestrians. As they gain popularity, more roads and parking lots have to be built because families may not swap their gas car for an EV; they may buy an EV for city use and keep the gas car for long-range trips. How about a government mandate insisting that high-speed electric trains between, say, Toronto and Montreal, replace air travel by 2035? France is banning short-haul flights where a train alternative of 2.5 hours or less exists. Electrified mass transportation, not EVs, are the answer to emissions – and creating pleasant, walkable cities. Government EV mandates are simply extending, and intensifying, the car culture.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I agree they cannot, or rather would not, make the roadster in volume. Its a super high-end sports car. Making it in volume was never the plan.

Yes, the planned volume for Roadster was always between 5-10K per year. But with a price tag approaching $250K for a "Foundation Series" Roadster, and with the same battery pack as the Cybertruck (size, but not necessarily layout), the specialty product will generate at least as much profit as the Model S (which does not meet the IRA price ceiling for Sedans).

Ironically the Model X LR does qualifiy, so it's volume is assured. But the Plaid S/X will share their drivetrain with the Roadster. It's the best business decision to introduce the highest margin product first (which is Roadster) then the S/X could be switched from 18650s to 4680s as the battery cell production w. the new v3 cell line in California allows.

Cheers!

 

[joh01652]

*NOT ADVICE, JUST THINKING ALOUD*

Historically speaking over the last 5 years, the early Feb thru early Mar timeframe has been a great time to sell TSLA stock or options. We tend to see relative maxima of sort of a few months duration land in this timeframe. One very strong reason for this is that TSLA, being the biggest options play on Wall Street for ohhhhh a decade now, tends to be very heavy in the LEAPS department; the price action gets suppressed until after 3rd week in Jan expiry. Selling in Jan isn't probably the best timing.

Secondly, from a TA perspective: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is entering extremely oversold territory now, and we are below the 200 DMA, and riding the lower Bollinger Band hard. Translation: selling soon isn't probably the best timing.

Lastly, Momma Cathie just backed up the Brinks truck to buy $25M in shares. This is another indication we are probably at a relative minimum, so a good time to buy is probably an indication that it is a poor time to sell.

If I were to sell (NOT ADVICE), I would not sell at all until at least mid Feb to give the SP time to get above the 200DMA (hopefully the 100:50:30[mid-bollinger band]) as well as above 50RSI. If I could wait longer, I may consider it depending on how the setup looks then. If I was getting near the time I had to sell in Feb, I would probably only sell a third of that which I intended, then reevaluate market sentiment and technical indicators at that time. We should have a much better feel after Elon delivers his Tesla talk after the 10k.

Just IMHO...

In under a month Cathie has bought about $66.5M worth of TSLA.
12/20 93,965 shares valued at $23.22 million
1/3 91,194 shares valued at $21.75
1/11 94,733 shares valued at $21.53M

Cathie Wood buys more Tesla stock on a dip and keeps on cutting her Coinbase stake

Wood's flagship ARK Innovation ETF has bought more than $20 million worth of Tesla's stock three times in three weeks, each time on days of big selloffs.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Max Plaid]

Well I have had the suspension serviced - some parts replaced. Brake pads. New vipers. Ordinary wear and tear I think.

And once they came to my house since the door would not lock.

Just before it came out of warranty Tesla replaced the rear spoiler which had some rust. And a couple of other nitpicks.

It is more comfy than the Y. But the Y feels quicker. And is more new and modern. I find the Y more noisy than the X.

Ah, it's a pre-refresh X, I have a Plaid, much better put together than the previous, but still rattles like hell

I also much prefer to drive the wife's MY, am thinking to move back to a Model S, waiting to see if they offer lifetime Supercharging again - I lost mine when I sold the XP100DL for the Plaid, so in the end got punished for switching too early, cost more and lost the charging

 

[Christine69420]

Ah, it's a pre-refresh X, I have a Plaid, much better put together than the previous, but still rattles like hell

I also much prefer to drive the wife's MY, am thinking to move back to a Model S, waiting to see if they offer lifetime Supercharging again - I lost mine when I sold the XP100DL for the Plaid, so in the end got punished for switching too early, cost more and lost the charging

I think my next will be a Model S too. Only one I haven't owned. Cancelled my order when I suddenly bought a house.

Don't care about lifetime supercharging. But I do care about FSD! Perhaps a monthly subscription is better when I cannot take it with me.

 

[joh01652]

Sadly, or for my own good, I don't have access to options

Thanks, will take a look there

No options for me, and September is way too far in the future

This is a good suggestion, we will see the Highland impact this quarter, maybe not fully since it will have to ramp again, maybe in Q2, but by then Juniper might be happening and we will have to wait even more to have a full picture



Oh really nice data and analysis, I might try to hold as much as possible, I'm still exploring some other cash sources so I don't have to touch my portfolio, but I reached the conclusion that if it comes to that, screw it, let's use for something that might be a really good non monetary return




This part is not a reply for the posts above, but more of a reflection that might help others. I've been a bit lost since losing my job 2 to 3 months ago due to the company going bankrupt, and while I haven't even applied anywhere, I don't see much light

The question I asked myself is "If Tesla 10x, or even 100x tomorrow, I had to never worry about money again, would that bring me peace, happiness, purpose, etc etc? The answer is a definitely no. Sure, I could do what I'm about to do without using almost half of my net worth, so in that way, wouldn't have fear of it not working and the money being wasted

On another hand, I never knew what I was saving and investing for. Lets save for the future and all that, but I never knew what that was, someone once said "Give me money, I don't care", which is kind of the vibe I'm going for, money helps, but only if you have a path, a purpose, something to live for or at least that makes you want to wake up everyday

Let's see what life brings, and also, if it goes well I might be able to buy back what I sold and more in a few months, with the best outcome being getting FSD for free

The mind is its own place, and in itself
Can make a heaven of hell, a hell of heaven
--John Milton, Paradise Lost

 

[mongo]

TL;dw we shouldn't be watching the streets for Roadsters, we should be watching the Employee parking lot for commuters (and the roof for spinning fans and steam from EVAPCO roof-mount dehumidifying units).

View attachment 1008709

Would you please spell that last part out for me? The commuters and steam from EVAPCO units signify 4680 lines coming to life?

Look at Joe Tegtmeyers's videos from Giga Texas last week. Those roof mounted EVAPCO units are spinning, and releasing plumes of steam. That means they're making battery cells in the 4680 cell lines located in the NW corner of the factory (Joe even explains the connection between humidty and cell production in his narrative).

People should really follow Joe.

There aren't roof mounted EVAPCO units over the main factory cell production area. There are EVAPCOs on the equipment mezzanine mounted units at the Cathode plant.
For the general public's reference, the original image isn't from Giga Texas, it's from EVAPCO's global product catalog.

 

[2daMoon]

“Then pay the man! How engaged would you be in your job with no current comp package?”

lol this is some serious BS from “Amy” & also Elon with his reply, especially in context to the previous post they are replying to (included in photo below). Pay the man? PAY THE MAN!? He’s already received an absolutely gigantic payout, far in excess of anyone else alive has ever received. Now we shouldn’t expect full engagement from Elon because he isn’t currently lined up to get hundreds of billions/trillions more in another incentive package? That crazy talk. He’s the CEO of one of the largest companies on the planet and it is his duty to run the company to its maximum potential.

Im also curious what engagement would be expected if he was to receive a new massive comp package….would he agree to stop spending multiple days a week running other companies? I doubt it.

Sure, I'll bite. Let's talk about "context."

What Elon has received will be used to fund other projects. Such as addressing climate change, and funding mankind's migration to other planets. It is not as if he spends his fortune in his "leisure time" as he really doesn't have much of that sort of time anyway. He doesn't own a home, nor share the wants and needs of the majority of those who judge him.

So, to Elon, "that would be nice" is more likely to mean "it would be nice to have a higher budget on hand for future projects." This will benefit everyone, so it shouldn't be pigeon-holed as if he is greedy.

Most normal folk would immediately interpret the statement in a more straight-forward manner, thinking about how they would use such largess. Such as having a boatload of cash to spend on personal wants and keeping up with the neighbors spending habits. This is a context more akin to how they feel when they win from a scratch-off ticket, get a cost of living raise, or find a twenty laying on the sidewalk.

Any talk about Elon's pay scale should be made in context with what he does with the wealth. Seldom is anything about Elon that is found in popular media contextual to how markedly different he is from most others.

It is not as if anyone else is actively trying to save the world and planning today for humanity's future hundreds of years out.

So, yes, that would be nice for Elon to receive an astounding boon from the success of Tesla, as it will be put to good use. Even if folks are unable to see that because they can't see the future from Elon's eyes.

The myopia experienced by those judging Elon from the standards they have set for themselves will keep hidden in the unfocused haze of their limited perception any viewpoint of a grander scale which they do not have the ability to imagine.

 

[Tachyon]

Sure, I'll bite. Let's talk about "context."

What Elon has received will be used to fund other projects. Such as addressing climate change, and funding mankind's migration to other planets. It is not as if he spends his fortune in his "leisure time" as he really doesn't have much of that sort of time anyway. He doesn't own a home, nor share the wants and needs of the majority of those who judge him.

So, to Elon, "that would be nice" is more likely to mean "it would be nice to have a higher budget on hand for future projects." This will benefit everyone, so it shouldn't be pigeon-holed as if he is greedy.

Most normal folk would immediately interpret the statement in a more straight-forward manner, thinking about how they would use such largess. Such as having a boatload of cash to spend on personal wants and keeping up with the neighbors spending habits. This is a context more akin to how they feel when they win from a scratch-off ticket, get a cost of living raise, or find a twenty laying on the sidewalk.

Any talk about Elon's pay scale should be made in context with what he does with the wealth. Seldom is anything about Elon that is found in popular media contextual to how markedly different he is from most others.

It is not as if anyone else is actively trying to save the world and planning today for humanity's future hundreds of years out.

So, yes, that would be nice for Elon to receive an astounding boon from the success of Tesla, as it will be put to good use. Even if folks are unable to see that because they can't see the future from Elon's eyes.

The myopia experienced by those judging Elon from the standards they have set for themselves will keep hidden in the unfocused haze of their limited perception any viewpoint of a grander scale which they do not have the ability to imagine.

My little Birdie brain concurs with your Xplanation. My friends Peacock and Fox are waiting to be rescued too./s

 

[Tony73]

Yes, the planned volume for Roadster was always between 5-10K per year. But with a price tag approaching $250K for a "Foundation Series" Roadster, and with the same battery pack as the Cybertruck (size, but not necessarily layout), the specialty product will generate at least as much profit as the Model S (which does not meet the IRA price ceiling for Sedans).

Ironically the Model X LR does qualifiy, so it's volume is assured. But the Plaid S/X will share their drivetrain with the Roadster. It's the best business decision to introduce the highest margin product first (which is Roadster) then the S/X could be switched from 18650s to 4680s as the battery cell production w. the new v3 cell line in California allows.

Cheers!

You never know with Tesla. The roadster could just as likely be 18650-based with some variant of the current plaid drivetrain. It’s saves them having to develop a brand new drivetrain. Tesla promised 600 miles of range but they also promised 520 miles of range when the model S plaid was first unveiled on battery day and that never happened.
I would not be surprised to see a roughly 400 - 500 mile range 18650 roadster.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There aren't roof mounted EVAPCO units over the main factory cell production area. There are EVAPCOs on the equipment mezzanine mounted units at the Cathode plant.

There are about 8 dehumidifier units mounted inside the roof (under the ceiling) at the NW corner of the Giga Texas battery plant. You'd have to go back at least a year (maybe 2) to see them being hoisted to the roof in one of Joe's videos, but these screen shots from Jan 5, 2024 show the plume of steam coming out of the roof right those units are housed (I don't recall if Joe showed us the brand as being EVAPCO, but that's a generic discriptor used for their function).

Here's the view from the North end, looking SW:



And here a reverse view of the plume, from the West Main Entrance looking back to the North:

For the general public's reference, the original image isn't from Giga Texas, it's from EVAPCO's global product catalog.

Ha, glad you noticed that in the file name I used for precisely that reason! It's meant to be illustrative Do you need to see what's inside the roof or is the steam enough?

Cheers!

 

[cliff harris]

Nobody buying the roadster will do so based on range. Its a show-off halo car for movie stars to nip around beverly hills in. Its not going to be used by sales reps dashing around the country. Not unless they are comically overpaid.