Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gene]

Just sayin'. I pick up my Cybertruck in Marina Del Rey on Monday. VIN is mid 800's. It's at that big delivery center that Tesla has been using since I got my Model 3 in 2017. Oh, Tesla surprisingly fair on insurance at only $96/ month.

 

[lafrisbee]

When has the CT ever been perceived as part of a growth story?

The CT was presented as an innovative, disruptive, next gen technology story. Every step of the way they have spoken of how everything about the truck will be different from design, to the materials, to the assembly line. This doesn't paint a rosy picture for growth.

It is more an example of a Tesla Blade Runner Pickup, for a 21st Century Bubba.

The reveal never left any impression Tesla had intentions of it being on par with M3 or MY (growth story) production levels. Though I can say I've always expected it to have higher production numbers than S and X.

Though, thanks to its immense popularity, I agree how it may now become a growth story.

CT was ALWAYS discussed in terms of the market share of Pick-ups in the USA and that is a growth curve above the Model Y even. And Giga Austin has consistently been mentioned as adding multiple lines of CT.
Only since the CT metrics and poor design have been established has the narrative shifted to CT going into the "Model S" niche category.
However, the USA Pick-up truck segment is going to be there for quite awhile. Modifications (Complete redo) of the CT will happen eventually (better sooner than later). And the next CT might actually be a Truck instead of a "T."

 

[Artful Dodger]

Been looking at the 26 June leaps. Seems like they have dropped quite a percent in the last week…

I've been working on a new theory these past 3 qtrs since we last flirted with $300: Retail investors spending their money on finite-expiry LEAPS encourages Market Makers to hold the SP down for multiple years. The June '26s expire in 18 29 mths... that's a long, long way to the River.

EDIT: h/t @UncaNed

 

[2daMoon]

CT was ALWAYS discussed in terms of the market share of Pick-ups in the USA and that is a growth curve above the Model Y even. And Giga Austin has consistently been mentioned as adding multiple lines of CT.
Only since the CT metrics and poor design have been established has the narrative shifted to CT going into the "Model S" niche category.
However, the USA Pick-up truck segment is going to be there for quite awhile. Modifications (Complete redo) of the CT will happen eventually (better sooner than later). And the next CT might actually be a Truck instead of a "T."

Your perspective of the CT has been skewed by some peculiar personal bias since the reveal. Because of this, you tend toward finding confirmation bias supporting that view in the interpretations you share regarding the CT.

So, there should be a grain ofliberally applied, both by those already aware and those who weren't.

Suffice it to say that mine does not align with the perspective you have so often opined from. My recollection is that Tesla folk discussed how all the other pickups look alike, and they wanted to do something different. I don't recall anyone at Tesla specifically indicating the CT was intended to take over that market. Elon did speak openly about having doubts it would even be a popular model.

I think Elon just wanted to toss a coyote into the hen house to see what might happen.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Gary Black also has a $10B buyback in a pinned tweet on his home page--I just dismissed it when I saw it, but maybe there's some truth/talk of it with Tesla execs??

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750540958511362071

Elon should listen to them STAT! because, obviously, they know how to run Tesla better than him! /s

Bears are out in full force after Q4 earnings, rightfully so...but we will have the last laugh eventually.

 

[Singuy]

Confirmed it's DOJO. Also they will buy from AMD as well.

Elon Musk
"The governor is correct that this is a Dojo Supercomputer, but $500M, while obviously a large sum of money, is only equivalent to a 10k H100 system from Nvidia.Tesla will spend more than that on Nvidia hardware this year. The table stakes for being competitive in AI are at least several billion dollars per year at this point."

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1750997027922567324?s=20

 

[aronth5]

If only Tesla had an insurance offering.

It's been a long time since a US state was added to Tesla's insurance offering. Makes me wonder if the business model hasn't turned out as profitable as Tesla anticipated. This article is a bit melodramatic but when you see similar articles critical of Tesla's insurance one begins to wonder if this product offering will ever contribute much to Tesla's margins.

Tesla Insurance Was Supposed To Revolutionize The Industry, Instead It's A Huge Mess | Carscoops

 

[UncaNed]

I've been working on a new theory thsee past 3 qtrs since we last flirted with $300: Retail investors spending their money on finite-expiry LEAPS encourages Market Makers to hold the SP down for multiple years. The June '26s expire in 18 mths... that's a long way to the River.

More like 29 months, no? Longer still to the river.

...Which river we talking about here??

 

[GhostSkater]

Site that tracks Cybertruck VINs

Cybertruck VIN Tracker

 

[lafrisbee]

Your perspective of the CT has been skewed by some peculiar personal bias since the reveal.

Because of this, you tend toward finding confirmation bias supporting that view in the interpretations you share regarding the CT.

So, there should be a grain ofliberally applied, both by those already aware and those and those who weren't.

Suffice it to say that mine does not align with the perspective you have so often opined from.

My perspective was clearer going in to the final release of the Cyber(nota)truck than anyone in this forum when considering financial investment. I sit with most of my money in T-bills bought months ago, and a small amount of TSLA stock in remembrance of kindness of the Market and TSLA getting me to enough money to live on the rest of my life. I had no worries or wishes concerning TSLA stock.
So when I saw how Tesla failed in almost every performance objective after taking 4 years to design the truck I saw it for what it truly is. Had I been wishing it were a godsend because I was financially attached I would try to keep my rose-colored glasses super glued to my nose so I would not become sick at the prospects of the future. Tesla repeatedly stated throughout the four years it was still continuously redesigning and engineering the Cyber(nota)truck And they still did not meet their original goal in regards to performance. FOUR years.
And as more and more people tell of the performance of their vehicles it becomes clear. It's a Show-er instead of a Go-er. (most won't know the reference. lol)

 

[heltok]

Tesla adding AMD chips instead of more nVidia chips to their cluster:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1674816472302993408

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750997413920154011

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla have a lot on it's plate that needs financing. And it's nice to have a big buffer if recession hits. So it's my opinion that if Tesla does a buyback they will later pair it with a stock issuance to raise capital.

So, no net change in shares outstanding or cash on hand, less the $500M in fees taken by the brokers who administer the cap raise.... Alrighty then...

 

[2daMoon]

My perspective was clearer going in to the final release of the Cyber(nota)truck than anyone in this forum when considering financial investment. I sit with most of my money in T-bills bought months ago, and a small amount of TSLA stock in remembrance of kindness of the Market and TSLA getting me to enough money to live on the rest of my life. I had no worries or wishes concerning TSLA stock.
So when I saw how Tesla failed in almost every performance objective after taking 4 years to design the truck I saw it for what it truly is. Had I been wishing it were a godsend because I was financially attached I would try to keep my rose-colored glasses super glued to my nose so I would not become sick at the prospects of the future. Tesla repeatedly stated throughout the four years it was still continuously redesigning and engineering the Cyber(nota)truck And they still did not meet their original goal in regards to performance. FOUR years.
And as more and more people tell of the performance of their vehicles it becomes clear. It's a Show-er instead of a Go-er. (most won't know the reference. lol)

Yes, thank you for another fine example of that which I described. Would you like to repeat yourself once more? Keeping in mind Einstein's definition of insanity and all.

FWIW, I'd want a Cybertruck even if I weren't a shareholder. It is just the coolest rig around.

 

[Singuy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750997413920154011

I don't think so. Elon specifically said they will be buying more than 500M of Nvidia H100 this year. So pretty much everyone is buying anything that's available.

 

[mongo]

I've been working on a new theory thsee past 3 qtrs since we last flirted with $300: Retail investors spending their money on finite-expiry LEAPS encourages Market Makers to hold the SP down for multiple years. The June '26s expire in 18 mths... that's a long way to the River.

So we should sell Leaps instead?

 

[Unpilot]

Been looking at the 26 June leaps. Seems like they have dropped quite a percent in the last week…

Bought a couple Feb 23rd lotto tickets myself.

 

[CitizenKane]

If it were designed for investors, there wouldn't be traders.

How so? Traders also benefit from - and they also contribute to - short term irrationality.

 

[Stretch2727]

Site that tracks Cybertruck VINs

Cybertruck VIN Tracker

View attachment 1012575

They are using the tesla site for checking for vehicle recalls to find valid VIN's. It's wide open and can be scanned with a macro.

Tesla will likely have a "recaptcha" on this in quick order...but the volumes are low enough it might be able to be done manually.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon says Dojo!

Elon Musk on X: "The governor is correct that this is a Dojo Supercomputer, but $500M, while obviously a large sum of money, is only equivalent to a 10k H100 system from Nvidia. Tesla will spend more than that on Nvidia hardware this year. The table stakes for being competitive in AI are at least several billion dollars per year at this point. " /X​

Lol, the way that Elon pumps Nvidia, I sure hope he owns a mitt-full of LEAPS on NVDA shares, so he can afford the taxes on his TSLA share options...

Cheers to the LEAPers!

 

[insaneoctane]

Bought some more today. Probably bought less than if I felt that I knew which direction it was heading next week