Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Electroman]

Elon and the board suddenly involved and opening all channels of communication when they need something is not a good gesture, especially after years of staying silent while we have been bombarded with fake news. Id would much prefer they shut the hell up, posted a few good ERs, then brought up another proposal. Or start with a year of publicly defending the company against the likes of Reuter with real information as opposed to some cryptic msgs and memes. Im sick and tired of the people who really are "familiar with the matter" keeping their mouth shut when we need them the most.

Im also sick and tired of being told responding to fake news makes it real. We collectively own Tesla the company. Why cant we know where the company is with respect to the cheaper models, for instance? Why do we have to wait till ER to receive any update at all? If you want to protect the company and its shareholders, maybe start with that. Seems like we shareholders ironically have the least information about the company.

What is the status of 4680 mass production?
What is the status of CT mass production?
What is the status of Semi mass production?
Why was Mexico plant put on hold?
Why did Musk cancel his India trip?
What are the long term plans for the cheaper Tesla? When is it expected to hit the market?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Some positive news for today:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792923844480475370

 

[M|S|M MYP]

As always, take it with a grain of salt:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792578222707687515

 

[2daMoon]

Since regeneration is a net increase in 'fuel', plus can stop the truck...it really isn't analogous to a Jake brake, whether from Jacbs or not. OTOH, your comment is really funny!

Exactly, as intended.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Got a link to that? What I saw was the opposite, that bicyclist death rates per mile were much higher than motorcyclists. But the data is scarce and I have spent a fair amount of time searching. Seems reasonable though-bicyclists are less predictable and are typically holding up traffic, as well as passing where not expected for drivers (right side/shoulder).

I've seen 30 - 70 fatalities per billion miles for bicycling.

What is the fatality rate for cycling per mile?

Answer (1 of 5): Sean Foster gives a good answer for the UK, but I thought I’d add to it. An overall average rate is 30.9 deaths per billion miles. But the danger to an individual depends very much upon where you ride. For example, between 2015 and 2018, there were 107 deaths on rural A roads, ...

www.quora.com

For motorcycling, it's like 310 fatalities per billion miles.

California Motorcycle Accident Statistics

Riding motorcycles can be exhilarating because of the sense of freedom that riders have while they ride. Many people who ride motorcycles also choose to do so because of their excellent fuel ...

www.californiaaccidentattorneysblog.com

The problem, of course is that "per mile" really isn't the best normalization as motorcycle riders are going to ride faster than cyclists. Per hour might be better.

Even if you just assume motorcycles are averaging double the speed of cyclists, then they definitely have 10X the death rate.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

As always, take it with a grain of salt:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792578222707687515

View attachment 1049204

It seems the anger at @Troy is becoming unhinged. Just like in geo-politics, people are becoming too emotionally driven to rationally separate the useful contributions of a person vs the parts they vehemently disagree with.

Like, Troy's postulations on robotaxi aesthetics I could care less for.

But that means nothing to changing his credibility on estimating production and deliveries.

And people's obsession over perfection turns them agains seeing "good enough".

In the case of Troy, he's better than everyone else and shows earlier adjustments in the quarter than everyone else. To me that's "good enough" to be valuable.

As for Q2, there are already clear signs that deliveries will be flattish at best YoY, and indeed the inventory problem in Q1 was not a "supply issue".

No need to get emotionally over it like the person in the quoted tweet.

 

[rallykeeper]

Ad campaign in full force

This is meant somewhat in jest, but doesn't it seem that Tesla is advertising more for the shareholder meeting than they do for selling cars or powerwalls/solar?

 

[hobbes]

Self-driving vehicles set to be on roads by 2026 as Automated Vehicles Act becomes law

Road safety is at the heart of the legislation, with automated vehicles expected to improve road safety by reducing human error.

www.gov.uk

 

[EQC_]

Do you think truck driver want an autonomous truck and have no future job ????
I this think is build they have mass strike everywhere

Two key points:
1) The Tesla Semi still has a driver's seat and a full suite of controls.
2) My understanding is that while being a trucker was once a very good option for making a decent living, over the years the conditions have become worse and the pay has not kept up with inflation. I would imagine that as older truckers retire, there will be fewer young folks looking to slot into those roles. There needs to be a transition at some point, so autonomous trucks will be needed eventually.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Couldn't find this posted yet, sorry if repeat.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792697051010175436

 

[Usain]

As for Q2, there are already clear signs that deliveries will be flattish at best YoY

If we are flattish YoY in Q2 I think the market will like that. It could be taken as a sign things are turning around.

 

[Usain]

I would imagine that as older truckers retire, there will be fewer young folks looking to slot into those roles.

As I understand it, this is already happening.

 

[GhostSkater]

Dan talking about the Semi and it's future, not a podcast, just the presentation recorded

 

[Matias]

Meaning of started in English​

started

past simple and past participle of start

start
verb

US
/stɑːrt/

start verb (BEGIN)​

A1 [ I or T ]
to begin doing something




You may want to look up "ramp".

I think we’re talking about car industry, not some artisan manufacturing? Clearly Semi’s production has not yet been started. They are building prototypes by hand approximately one/month as they have for few years.

 

[Todd Burch]

"Tesla's semi trucks have achieved an uptime of greater than 95%, including preventive and unscheduled maintenance." This is the key factor that will drive Tesla Semi adoption. Of all of it's many advantages (safety, acceleration, maneuverability, etc): industry-leading uptime translates into higher margins. It is a moat that ICE semis will never step to. The second most significant factor is fuel savings - can't compete against saving dollhairs.

How does 95% compare to diesel semis? I searched a bit and couldn't find a comparable number.

 

[Darkfox021]

Two key points:
1) The Tesla Semi still has a driver's seat and a full suite of controls.
2) My understanding is that while being a trucker was once a very good option for making a decent living, over the years the conditions have become worse and the pay has not kept up with inflation. I would imagine that as older truckers retire, there will be fewer young folks looking to slot into those roles. There needs to be a transition at some point, so autonomous trucks will be needed eventually.

#2 is already happening. There is a driver shortage across the US.

 

[mongo]

As always, take it with a grain of salt:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792578222707687515

View attachment 1049204

Drat, didn't think of doing a survey while at the delivery center Saturday, but can confirm Beast is 100% of our EV fleet and that it is freaking awesome.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Drat, didn't think of doing a survey while at the delivery center Saturday, but can confirm Beast is 100% of our EV fleet and that it is freaking awesome.

Did they happen to mention what daily production is now for Cybertruck?

 

[mongo]

Did they happen to mention what daily production is now for Cybertruck?

No, but there were a few on site, more on Saturday's carrier and then more on another carrier. Pretty good for Michigan

 

[SOULPEDL]

Watch this place get really quiet now...