Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

The best and maybe only reason for tesla to buy Rivian is
To avoid a competitor from buying them.

So many one liners;

What competitors?
Competitors need all the help they can get.
Tying the Rivian financial cement block around a competitor’s neck - good or bad decision really depends on your perspective.

If I have to read Tesla buying Rivian for the next two years like I had to read Apple buying Tesla -

 

[Krugerrand]

If Rivian does go down though the market could certainly use a nice conventional truck like the RIT or R2. The cybertruck is definitely not everyone’s cup of tee.

A retro conventional truck is definitely not everyone’s cup of tea either. And how quickly we’ve forgotten that Tesla will make a conventional truck when the CT turns out to be a flop.

 

[Krugerrand]

A competitor with manufacturing ability would be buying a desirable design and EV
Know how.

And the inability to make it for a profit. Unless of course you know why they’re spending money hand over fist and it’s not related at all to the vehicle design or manufacturing methods. Is the money being burned up on high end business lunches and golden parachutes alone?

The Rivian clock is ticking and they are nearing their last opportunity. If they don’t turn the ship around right now, they’re done. Another cash raise may be coming, but does anyone really believe they’ll get another $20B parachute?

Someone interested in buying them would have an opportunity to look through the books. There’s no way it’s a fairy tale solved by sprinkling some pixie dust. But let’s say someone wants the tech. Who has the business savvy to absorb the tech and integrate it?

Maybe BYD.

There, I said it. Now @Buckminster can start the BYD buys Rivian thread.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766098202405584981

 

[Drax7]

So many one liners;

What competitors?
Competitors need all the help they can get.
Tying the Rivian financial cement block around a competitor’s neck - good or bad decision really depends on your perspective.

If I have to read Tesla buying Rivian for the next two years like I had to read Apple buying Tesla -

View attachment 1025765

Toyota could take a Rivian and manufacture it on scale
With their hands tied behind their back.
But trucks for the North American markets might not
Be their interest.

 

[SO16]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766098202405584981

Good grief. That’s a heck of a jan revision. Why bother reporting that early if the initial numbers are so far off?

 

[Krugerrand]

Good grief. That’s a heck of a jan revision. Why bother reporting that early if the initial numbers are so far off?

Why bother indeed? Why ever bother to guess anything at anytime? Why not just patiently wait?

All rhetorical unless someone needs me to list the million reasons why humans lack patience, why they need to drive a story they tell themselves and others, why they just simply can’t live in the moment, but would rather prefer to bask in the past or worry about the unknowable future.

 

[Christine69420]

Good grief. That’s a heck of a jan revision. Why bother reporting that early if the initial numbers are so far off?

Someone should tell them about computers and the internet!


Serious answer - it's a survey. So not much value at all. I guess the US does not have a central database of who needs to pay taxes from their work?

 

[Krugerrand]

Toyota could take a Rivian and manufacture it on scale
With their hands tied behind their back.
But trucks for the North American markets might not
Be their interest.

Ford, GM or Toyota? Surely you jest.

Neither Ford nor GM does anything much nowadays themselves. And the decision makers at the top aren’t interested in anything but their personal exit plans. You are aware how badly GM dropped the EV ball with their line up, right? And you’re aware how much Ford loses on every EV they make? Right? Suddenly, you think either of these companies could take Rivian tech and put it in their EV trucks? Sir, it is way too early in the day for me to be laughing this hard.

Toyota had every opportunity to take their Prius line to the next level and did absolutely everything in their power to not. Then hydrogen, then solid state batteries, then back to hydrogen, then PHEV, then fossil fuel, then solid state again - we’ve been seeing Toyota headlines about the next great idea for over a decade. Actually, might be two decades now.

Try again.

 

[Drax7]

Check this podcast between Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley
On tesla FSD.
This conversation is important , do not skip over.

 

[UncaNed]

A competitor with manufacturing ability would be buying a desirable design and EV
Know how.

Like the Chinese.

 

[Drax7]

Ford, GM or Toyota? Surely you jest.

Neither Ford nor GM does anything much nowadays themselves. And the decision makers at the top aren’t interested in anything but their personal exit plans. You are aware how badly GM dropped the EV ball with their line up, right? And you’re aware how much Ford loses on every EV they make? Right? Suddenly, you think either of these companies could take Rivian tech and put it in their EV trucks? Sir, it is way too early in the day for me to be laughing this hard.

Toyota had every opportunity to take their Prius line to the next level and did absolutely everything in their power to not. Then hydrogen, then solid state batteries, then back to hydrogen, then PHEV, then fossil fuel, then solid state again - we’ve been seeing Toyota headlines about the next great idea for over a decade. Actually, might be two decades now.

Try again.

They would or could attempt to manufacture the Rivian on scale, never mind adopting anything.
Desperate firms do desperate things.

 

[scaesare]

It's got a very retro 80's vibe to me:

View attachment 1025588View attachment 1025589

That back end looks rough for aero...

 

[Krugerrand]

They would or could attempt to manufacture the Rivian on scale, never mind adopting anything.

Absolutely no way Ford or GM make an EV truck that doesn’t look exactly like their current truck lines.

And while the Rivian is aesthetically closer, it’s not an F-series or a Silverado. Both companies would absolutely not keep any Rivian stying inside or out.

Additionally, Ford literally proved they can’t make an EV pickup at profit. Not even close. So, you say just put the Rivian tech into the Lightning and voila! Profit!? Not how it works, besides the fact nobody yet knows exactly why Rivian can’t make a profit. It may in part be due to their tech.

And GM hasn’t produced their electric Silverado yet. But I wouldn’t hold your breath it’ll be a success anymore than the Lightning with or without Rivian tech.

 

[Krugerrand]

Desperate firms do desperate things.

Yes, in their desperation they stop making their EVs. In their desperation they feed the media new narratives.

We’ll have 82 new EVs in 13 months.
EVs are a dead end.
Hybrids are the natural way to transition the world.

 

[scaesare]

I've counted the cell on Rivian structural pack

34 by 8 cells on each module, 3 modules, extrapolating from 4680 energy content of 86 to 95 Wh per cell, each 4695 cell should be somewhere from 102 to 113 Wh

In that config, R2 pack should be somewhere around 83 to 92 kWh, no point trying to predict efficiency since all we know is 300+ miles of range, but I wouldn't expect it to beat or even get close to Model Y efficiency since it's much boxier and higher

We can also try to speculate pack voltage, configs that are easy to do in this pack layout are 102S8P and 367 V nominal and 204S4P 734 V

I don't think they will go higher voltage since for smaller vehicles it doesn't make much sense, plus larger cells without a tabless electrode or similar charge slower (or even with tabless, looking at you Cybertruck)

View attachment 1025619

So I found a wheelbase spec of 155.5", about an inch shorter than the S. Didn't see a metric for width, but I assume narrower than the S at 79".

That footprint limits pack size, which is rough for a boxy and taller SUV.

 

[2daMoon]

Like the Chinese, except from a nation that can actually own a company in the US.

FTFY

 

[scaesare]

Let’s hope a competitor buys them and keeps pouring in billions. The last thing we want is a competitor with positive margins.

I know this is the investment thread, and we want Tesla to crush it for the stock price.

But, I am hopeful that other EV companies will make it... Rivian has a seemingly compelling product (and product plans), but are struggling with manufacturing costs and volume. It would be great if they, or a competitor, could get that under control and we'd have another thriving company all-in on EV's...

 

[2daMoon]

I know this is the investment thread, and we want Tesla to crush it for the stock price.

But, I am hopeful that other EV companies will make it... Rivian has a seemingly compelling product (and product plans), but are struggling with manufacturing costs and volume. It would be great if they, or a competitor, could get that under control and we'd have another thriving company all-in on EV's...

Maybe if Rivian put Joe Justice on the payroll (or someone equally conversant on lean manufacturing) for an evaluation of where to improve their processes?

 

[SO16]

I don’t know about you all but I have seen a LOT of Tesla ads on YouTube lately (yes I’m too cheap to get a YT membership). Practically every time I open the app and watch a video which can be a few times daily.

I think at least 5 different commercials telling about the hepa filter, heat pump, performance, etc. and fortunately they prominently show the price and fed tax credit.

I just hope these ads are reaching the right people. Preaching to the choir with me.