Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ToTheStars]

I couldn't find if this had been posted before:

Waymo One is now open to everyone in San Francisco

The wait is over. Starting today, anyone can hail a ride with Waymo in San Francisco. Rain, shine or Karl the Fog, just download the app, and ride.

waymo.com

Waymo seems to be scaling the amount of rides. I wonder if this has an impact on FSD and robotaxi developments.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Good news, 1.36 GWh of Tesla Megapacks coming online in Arizona projects (two of them):

Two new battery storage projects coming online in Arizona

When both facilities are operational, nearly 1,300 MW of battery and pumped hydro storage will be on Salt River Project's system.

www.renewableenergyworld.com

I wonder if this means at least some revenue will be recognized for Q2.

 

[NicoV]

Wow. Tesla's SW/firmware infrastructure is SO fresh compared to the competition. Now even Rivian, also a clean sheet startup from this century, will have VW's baggage to deal with.

Maybe VW is only interested in Rivians software (developers).

 

[NicoV]

“VW said it would invest $2 billion in the creation of a jointly-owned software company that uses Rivian's vehicle technology as the foundation for programs that will go into both automakers' future vehicles in the latter half of the decade.

The German automaker said it also planned to purchase a $3 billion stake in Rivian over a few years, including the initial $1 billion injection.”

So VW creates a joint-venture and funds it with $2B. Rivian doesn’t have cash to fund the joint-venture and brings in their software assets and development team (or parts of). The question is, how is the distribution of shares in that new joint-venture between VW and Rivian. Lets assume 50/50.

So whatever happens to Rivian, VW keeps sufficient control over this joint-venture to use it for their own cars.
VW also gets a $1B stake in Rivian, which is about 10% (maybe more, I assume VW will get a reasonable discount to the public price).

Rivians stock has gone up 50% overnight, but thats only temporary IMO. What happens to Rivian will still depend on how fast it can reach break-even. That will still take many quarters, so Rivian cash position will still go down. So will the stock price. Volkswagen already earmarked $2B to buy more of Rivian on the cheap.

Eventually Rivian will run out of money and VW may own all of Rivian by then.
And if Rivian does succeed in achieving break-even before running out of money, VW will still own a big chunck of it and practically own the software and development team.

Well played Volkswagen!

 

[stef]

“VW said it would invest $2 billion in the creation of a jointly-owned software company that uses Rivian's vehicle technology as the foundation for programs that will go into both automakers' future vehicles in the latter half of the decade.

The German automaker said it also planned to purchase a $3 billion stake in Rivian over a few years, including the initial $1 billion injection.”

So VW creates a joint-venture and funds it with $2B. Rivian doesn’t have cash to fund the joint-venture and brings in their software assets and development team (or parts of). The question is, how is the distribution of shares in that new joint-venture between VW and Rivian. Lets assume 50/50.

So whatever happens to Rivian, VW keeps sufficient control over this joint-venture to use it for their own cars.
VW also gets a $1B stake in Rivian, which is about 10% (maybe more, I assume VW will get a reasonable discount to the public price).

Rivians stock has gone up 50% overnight, but thats only temporary IMO. What happens to Rivian will still depend on how fast it can reach break-even. That will still take many quarters, so Rivian cash position will still go down. So will the stock price. Volkswagen already earmarked $2B to buy more of Rivian on the cheap.

Eventually Rivian will run out of money and VW may own all of Rivian by then.
And if Rivian does succeed in achieving break-even before running out of money, VW will still own a big chunck of it and practically own the software and development team.

Well played Volkswagen!

Not sure how this will end up long term, but somehow I'm glad that VW made this deal before Apple ...

 

[Todd Burch]

Although this VW/Rivian deal has made Rivian’s stock shoot up, I ultimately don’t see it as a positive for them:

1. Rather than bear down and enact true cost-saving measures, they were “saved” by an infusion of cash. Tesla, on the other hand, was forced to find ways to cut costs. A cash infusion results in less incentive to cut costs. Rivian may he making their way toward profitability, but something like this won’t help them streamline operations.

2. This means you have another hand in the pot. Another potentially dissenting voice in the decision making that will need to be reconciled. Rule by committee is never efficient, and VW will want their say in how things go.

I think one of the reasons Tesla is so nimble and was able to get their margins up so quickly is because they don’t have many hands in the decision-making pot trying to steer the direction of the company. This is probably a net positive for VW, clearly a short-term net positive for Rivian’s stock, but longer-term I think it will be a net negative for Rivian as a company.

 

[cliff harris]

I agree that this isn't going to end well.
I don't think Rivian are at all enthusiastic about working with VW. Why would they be? VW are famous for really bad software, and a management team that clearly despise EVs and think that continuing to cheat emissions tests is the future. Imagine a decent rivian automotive programmer being told they have to go work with a bunch of volkswagen developers? You joined a small young EV startup, now you work with the dieselgate team...

This is a desperate attempt to stop rivian having to bankrupt (or as stated above, to confront their own issues) joined with a desperate attempt by VW to get some 'ev startup' association to juice their stock.

I'm sure in the short term we will get geniuses like jim cramer saying what a huge downer this is for Tesla now VW have rivians software or whatever. It will all be absolute BS though.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Perhaps Rivian will use the same software base in their cars, e.g. VW software in a Rivian? The use of the same software in more cars could lower costs?

 

[jkirkwood001]

In North America, I've yet to see a person signal in a roundabout. FSD should do the signaling (and I expect it will in Europe) but I haven't seen it signaling yet. Does signaling in a roundabout accomplish anything other than distract the driver?

Really? Entering a roundabout safely and expeditiously is about knowing which of the cars already in the roundabout are exciting before they reach me, and which ones aren't. That's what a signal is for.

If many NA drivers don't signal, it's not because it doesn't help other drivers. IMHO driving in a dozen countries, NA drivers are more oblivious to (or simply ignore) what's going on around them, and this hurts our overall safety. Other drivers not signaling means I have to wait longer to enter the roundabout.

I agree with you: FSD should do this automatically, eventually. Until then in Europe, I feel for you, @cliff harris.

 

[Musskiah]

And at this point -- at least where I drive -- it is starting to look like a solution in search of a problem. I have not had a flat in more than a decade in the East. Though Colorado and Utah have generated one each in the past 15 years.

The problem of flat tires is all but extinct East of the Mississippi?

 

[Snerruc]

There are several Rt1s in the Richmond, Va area. My son has two in his neighborhood. They are very well put together and their owners say they love them. Not being used as work trucks as coming from a F150 or such they are a little small.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Tesla Cybertruck recalled again, this time over faulty wiper and trim

Cyber dumptruck.

www.theverge.com

Tesla recalls all 3,878 Cybertrucks over faulty accelerator pedal

The “Cyberstuck” defect will be fixed at no additional cost to customers.

www.theverge.com

11,688 less the 3,878 vehicles recalled on April 17th means Tesla has produced 7,810 Cybertrucks since April 19th (when CT production resumed), a span of nearly 9.5 weeks. It imputes a 820/week run rate, if, of course, production was level (it almost certainly was not).

Tesla produces 1,300 Cybertrucks per week, moving from Foundations Series next quarter

Tesla confirmed that it managed to produce 1,300 Cybertrucks in a week and it is moving from its Foundations Series...

electrek.co

So the first or second week of April, they supposedly were producing 1,000/week. Since then, they've averaged ~820/week, while also claiming to hit 1,300/week in the second week of June.

Either they were *very slow* to restart production after the mid-April recall, or the math is off. Just another example of how you can't extrapolate a one-time rate of production that Tesla chooses to share.

I need to edit this. The current recall was through June 6th (apparently they stopped production?). So that's 7 weeks. 7,810 / 7 weeks = ~1,115/week, if flat.

 

[Ellec]

Desperate move by VW, they can't compete so outsourcing it to a pure EV company who still has to make a profit. It won't end well for both of them, but at least they are trying.

 

[jerry33]

Really? Entering a roundabout safely and expeditiously is about knowing which of the cars already in the roundabout are exciting before they reach me, and which ones aren't. That's what a signal is for.

If many NA drivers don't signal, it's not because it doesn't help other drivers. IMHO driving in a dozen countries, NA drivers are more oblivious to (or simply ignore) what's going on around them, and this hurts our overall safety. Other drivers not signaling means I have to wait longer to enter the roundabout.

I agree with you: FSD should do this automatically, eventually. Until then in Europe, I feel for you, @cliff harris.

Almost all the roundabouts I see are one lane. Either there is a car on your left (you yield) or not (you go). With multiple lanes, it's a different story.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Desperate move by VW, they can't compete so outsourcing it to a pure EV company who still has to make a profit. It won't end well for both of them, but at least they are trying.

It's not outsourcing when they're doing it through an investment. Worst that happens is Rivian fails and they hire the developers.
Rivian also owns Iternio, the company that makes ABRP, so the deal should allow them to integrate ABRP.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Almost all the roundabouts I see are one lane. Either there is a car on your left (you yield) or not (you go). With multiple lanes, it's a different story.

You still want to know if a vehicle is exiting or continuing ahead of time and that's where turn signals are useful. Otherwise you have to judge by angle.

 

[scaesare]

I need to edit this. The current recall was through June 6th (apparently they stopped production?). So that's 7 weeks. 7,810 / 7 weeks = ~1,115/week, if flat.

Kudos for following up to revise as more data emerges.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Good news, 1.36 GWh of Tesla Megapacks coming online in Arizona projects (two of them):

Two new battery storage projects coming online in Arizona

When both facilities are operational, nearly 1,300 MW of battery and pumped hydro storage will be on Salt River Project's system.

www.renewableenergyworld.com

I wonder if this means at least some revenue will be recognized for Q2.

Heard this on the local radio yesterday. Not once was Tesla mentioned. I thought it was a different supplier from the sounds of it.

WHAT?
"The utility aims to reduce emissions (from 2005 levels) by more than 65 percent by 2035 and 90 percent by 2050. As a part of that plan, SRP will have retired approximately 2,600 MW of coal-fired generation by 2032."

Edit: Coal? They use gas peaker plants, in Coolidge, new ones too! Maybe a mistype or ?

 

[Max Plaid]

Every time someone mentions this, EVERY time, they are in the US or Canada.
If I drive to the nearest city, I have at least 20 roundabouts, maybe 30 between here and there. A lot of Europe is the same. I know a lot of people, myself included who would simply never buy a car without stalks.
Why Tesla cannot grasp this is beyond me. Stalks are not made from platinum...

I suspect it started with the yoke - after all, stalks are designed for a circular wheel and would be difficult to implement with a square steering wheel

But yes, they should bring them back, the indicators are unusable on roundabouts and after 18 months of Plaid ownership I still have no idea where the horn and high-beam are

Typical Tesla, someone has a bright idea and they just do it without real thought - same with the hands-free trunk opening, nice idea, but a pain in the ass when you're trying to wash your car or happen to be standing behind your car and NOT wanting the trunk to open

Crazy idea, but maybe they could ask customers what would be good, seems they generally take no notice these days

 

[Max Plaid]

In North America, I've yet to see a person signal in a roundabout. FSD should do the signaling (and I expect it will in Europe) but I haven't seen it signaling yet. Does signaling in a roundabout accomplish anything other than distract the driver?

Another fail from Tesla - that car should auto-indicate, certainly when following a navigation route, plus also the car should be able to work out what your intention is by road positioning, steering movement and speed

If the car can drive itself then it should also be able to accurately second-guess what you're doing