Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

I don’t even know why effort is being put into this driver attentiveness stuff when robotaxis are right around the corner.

Human attentiveness is paramount until L4 is proven out

 

[Knightshade]

Which Chinese companies offer L2 self driving in all locations across China without limiting access to certian cities or road types?

XPeng, for one.

XPeng continues to challenge Tesla FSD with XNGP self-driving, now available throughout China

XPeng Motors announced a massive milestone for its XPeng navigation guided pilot (XNGP) ADAS feature that enables self-driving in several...

electrek.co

XNGP is now available unlimitedly on all roads, everywhere in China.

All L2 systems are not equivalent.

Which part of that fact are you confused about?

Your lack of ability to demonstrate any significant difference between the all-roads one Tesla is providing and the all-roads ones in China.

Like I said earlier- you're using the No True Scotsman Fallacy to defend an inaccurate claim.

Again.

 

[Musskiah]

I know people (in particular some of my most dear feminist friends) who try to paint Elon as a misogynist. His selection of and long-term relationships with Denholm and Shotwell, in particular, are often one of the ways I counter them. They are truly remarkable women who young women everywhere ought to look up to. You go Robyn!!!! Tesla chair says life-changing wealth boosts her independence as she blasts judge's critique of 'lackadaisical' oversight of Elon Musk—'That is crap'

 

[Musskiah]

XPeng, for one.

XPeng continues to challenge Tesla FSD with XNGP self-driving, now available throughout China

XPeng Motors announced a massive milestone for its XPeng navigation guided pilot (XNGP) ADAS feature that enables self-driving in several...

electrek.co

XPeng has sold as many cars in China over its entire existence as Tesla sells in about 20 weeks in China. They will have to at least 10x their volume to be considered competitive. Judging by their growth YOY b/w 2022 and 2023, I think that's unlikely.

"No True Scotsman Fallacy " - thanks for the new term!

 

[AndrewZ]

Human attentiveness is paramount until L4 is proven out

I still remember when Elon was balking at the idea of using the cabin camera for eye tracking at all because it was inaccurate, and so the cabin camera was there to monitor Robotaxi users.

Half of these requirements could be dropped if the camera was positioned in the driver’s line of sight, I think the other half could be dropped if they used a better camera.

 

[Musskiah]

I still remember when Elon was balking at the idea of using the cabin camera for eye tracking at all because it was inaccurate, and so the cabin camera was there to monitor Robotaxi users.

Half of these requirements could be dropped if the camera was positioned in the driver’s line of sight, I think the other half could be dropped if they used a better camera.

I like that he changed his mind, as the most humble and intelligent humans are capable of

 

[Knightshade]

XPeng has sold as many cars in China over its entire existence as Tesla sells in about 20 weeks in China. They will have to at least 10x their volume to be considered competitive. Judging by their growth YOY b/w 2022 and 2023, I think that's unlikely.

Ok.

Doesn't change the fact they offer door to door L2 everywhere in China though.

The fact Toyota sells >5x as many cars as Tesla doesn't make THEIR ADAS system any less trash.... so you seem to be conflating two different subjects.

"No True Scotsman Fallacy " - thanks for the new term!

it's shockingly common to see unfortunately-- folks dismiss unwanted counterexamples by modifying the original claim to exclude that counter-example

 

[SOULPEDL]

Fragrance arrived in Norway today, I think BULLISH and may ignore any other data for a couple of weeks!
View attachment 1049835

Hi there Norway, back at ya.
Keep up the great progress and Global EV adoption leadership from day one!

 

[Usain]

Which Chinese companies offer L2 self driving in all locations across China without limiting access to certian cities or road types?

XPeng, but the "go anywhere" version is very new and apparently uses heuristics. From everything I've read, it is not comparable to FSD V12.

 

[Causalien]

thats not really a "CCP" thing. Whatever you do, there is an Asian who can do it better than you. Asians, especially Chinese, are just very very good at copying and improving. The pace at which Tesla improves has to be faster than those who try to imitate it.

The slaughtering refers to when the ccp officials start to divide up tesla assets using some bullshit enforcement actions.

It is a uniquely ccp thing. Sure, it happens when they caught up to you and sees no more benefit from letting you run free.

 

[Usain]

Your lack of ability to demonstrate any significant difference between the all-roads one Tesla is providing and the all-roads ones in China.

Like I said earlier- you're using the No True Scotsman Fallacy to defend an inaccurate claim.

Again.

I have pointed out the difference to you already and now again to another poster.

If you have evidence that XPeng's "go anywhere" software is comparable in performance to FSD 12, please post it.

Again, just because someone defines two systems as "L2", does not mean they are equivalent.

 

[Knightshade]

I have pointed out the difference to you already and now again to another poster.

No, you have not.

You keep insisting they exist without explaining how.

If you have evidence that XPeng's "go anywhere" software is comparable in performance to FSD 12, please post it.

I did.

They both work anywhere in their respective places, and provide L2 door to door on city streets.

FUNCTIONALLY they do the same things with the same ODDs.

Thus they are comparable, despite your insisting, without any justification, otherwise.

From everything I've read, it is not comparable to FSD V12.

Not comparable in what way? By what measurement?

Can you provide links to these things you have read?

 

[Musskiah]

The fact Toyota sells >5x as many cars as Tesla doesn't make THEIR ADAS system any less trash.... so you seem to be conflating two different subjects.

If that's your stance, then you would be overlooking the most important factor in improvement of autonomous vehicle software: Real world video data. It matters greatly when it comes to pace of innovation.

 

[EQC_]

Well, we already know from ex-Tesla engineers that they designed Autopilot to disengage one second before an anticipated crash, thus rendering a crash as "no on Autopilot."

Like many things Tesla, be skeptical of what they present at face value given their track record.

It is fair to be skeptical. We all know that no data is perfect, and presentation can always be bent to influence perception.

However, complete falsehood is not fair.

Tesla Vehicle Safety Report | Tesla

At Tesla, we believe that technology can help improve safety. That’s why Tesla vehicles are engineered to be the safest cars in the world. We believe the unique combination of passive safety, active safety, and automated driver assistance is crucial for keeping not just Tesla drivers and...

www.tesla.com

"We also receive a crash alert anytime a crash is reported to us from the fleet, which may include data about whether Autopilot was active at the time of impact. To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact..."

Tesla says in very plain language that if Autopilot disengages (which can literally include the human deactivating on purpose) up to 5 seconds before a crash, Tesla will still call that a crash tied to Autopilot. Tangentially related: it's also unique here to note that Tesla's systems automatically phone home about crash events. So, even if the drivers involved decide to not report a crash and avoid dealing with insurance like often happens, Tesla will still have the info for their own statistics. Seems quite likely that Tesla is probably counting a higher percentage of crashes than are even recorded anywhere for other auto manufacturers...

Your imaginary scenario of Autopilot barreling toward an inevitable crash, disengaging automatically just before impact, and Tesla deviously calling it a human-only/no Autopilot crash is pure nonsensical fantasy. Eeesh...I really hope I've just misread your intent -- Maybe your humor is subtle and you were making a sarcastic reference to the nonsense that gets tossed around by the weirdly dedicated anti-Tesla groups that show up and dominate the comment section on sites like Jalopnik? The guys that chime in and declare themselves "before the Tesla fanboys and cultists show up!" [[this imagined foe of theirs doesn't "show up"...]] and will accuse anybody who is even neutral toward Tesla as having sex fantasies about Elon. Are you just poking fun at that crew by mimicing them for us?

 

[Musskiah]

XPeng, but the "go anywhere" version is very new and apparently uses heuristics. From everything I've read, it is not comparable to FSD V12.

One has years of "go anywhere" experince and data, the other literally just got started.

 

[EQC_]

The fact it’s getting safer is important, although not surprising. But the constant, clickbait claim here and elsewhere is that it is safer than human drivers. The available data doesn’t show that.

You may see a "clickbait claim here and elsehwere" that it is safer than human drivers.

I still see many editorial articles where they claim Autopilot and FSD are constantly running into pedestrians and fire trucks and is a danger to everybody on the road. Most of the FSD-related articles I see will contain some reference to "sure, the drivers using FSD agreed...but all us other vulnerable people on the road didn't agree to be endangered by Elon and Tesla's beta test!!!"

Personally, I see the slight exaggeration and/or selective data on the "pro-FSD" side as much closer to reality than the negativity pushed in many other places.

 

[nativewolf]

Is everyone reading this?

https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2023-tesla-impact-report.pdf

View attachment 1049856

It is old news

 

[Musskiah]

I know people (in particular some of my most dear feminist friends) who try to paint Elon as a misogynist. His selection of and long-term relationships with Denholm and Shotwell, in particular, are often one of the ways I counter them. They are truly remarkable women who young women everywhere ought to look up to. You go Robyn!!!! Tesla chair says life-changing wealth boosts her independence as she blasts judge's critique of 'lackadaisical' oversight of Elon Musk—'That is crap'

@replicant Would you care to elaborare on your thumbs down (this ought to be good)?

 

[ggies07]

It is old news

ha. right. 2023. losing my mind today! thanks. deleted my post.

 

[Musskiah]

It is old news

So you read it already? It's just as impressive now as it was then, isn't it?