Nah, just not wasting my time
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Musskiah
DisGruntled
The 2022 and 2023 safety data is remarkably better than a human, isn't it? I wonder why other car manufacturers don't ever publish quarterly safety data? Don't you?
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Yes. I wasn't suggesting they use nickel for the Megapacks, I was suggesting this would give Tesla access to vast nickel reserves.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Anyone have any theories of why the green line is clearly trending down?
They are unable to compare either data set -- AP or FSD assisted -- direclty with data compiled on the same roads by solely human drivers. Meaning these categories of "primarily local roads" and "primarly highways" can't be set against precisely equivalent sets of human-only data on exactly the same roads.
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Musskiah
DisGruntled
As Tesla is making vehicles more affordable there are more less skilled drivers with Teslas now?
This is a tale as old as the CCP: massively subsidize industries, cut prices on the back of those subsidies, and dump into other economies to destroy domestic competition and establish dominance.
Then when China wants to make a move on Taiwan or mess around further with the Philippines or Vietnam in the South China Sea and the US and Europe are dependent on Chinese batteries / solar panels / yadda yadda, that’s when things will go sideways the same way they did with Russia using its energy exports to exert influence.
But I think the world has become too wise to this.
Missing the point. FSD operating in a random environment as driving from house to work is impressive. So one an see how it "should" be safer.
Flying is not random and very regulated.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
It might not be large enough of a downtrend to be statistically significant.
But if it is, I would guess the cause is actually good drivers choosing to use Autopilot more often. If good drivers have been chosing to use Autopilot more often, the cohort of drivers that constitute the miles driven without Autopilot are getting worse on average.
Green line has no trend, maybe a Q3 bump repeating pattern is all I see. Point being, it's generally flat with consistent noise that may have to with seasons.
Conclusion: Safety is NOT improving for those still driving themselves - which makes sense.
FSD seems very close to the stated 10x safer than humans goal. Today could be the last TSLA sale price day... ya never know.
Other that being incorrect on all your factual premise, you're also rather unreasoned in your view of driver information.
FYI, :
"British European Airways ordered a fleet of Hawker Siddeley HS 121 Tridents, three-engine jetliners that in 1965 became the first transports to fly automatic landings in revenue service."
source: Smithsonian
Presently some version of autoland is available even on small aircraft:
Piper first with Garmin Autoland approval
The FAA on May 15 certified Garmin Autoland on the Piper M600/SLS, making it the first airplane ever certified with a system that will land the airplane on its own should the pilot become incapacitated.
www.aopa.org
Highest level of precision with the new Airbus Ground Control Points
Airbus has launched a new series of Ground Control Points (GCPs) to give centimetre level accuracy and higher points density. These highly precise 3D coordinates are automatically extracted from Airbus’ high-resolution stereo radar imagery, using an innovative geodesy processor.
www.airbus.com
Although I'm a former Airline Transport Pilot and CFI I am not current. The data, though, is readily accessible.
As we consider automotive use of driving aids and eventually true point-to-point automation, you're woefully out of touch with present reality, including Tesla and several others.
Just as even small Cessnas have excellent autopilots available today, we might understand that "hand flying" today is now mostly for sport. Very soon, "hand driving" will be thus. As with aircraft automated systems, none of the ones for vehicles anytime soon are able to be 100% supervised. Even fully automatic aircraft still have monitoring and remote control in some respect. So it will be for vehicles for some time, probably including Robotaxi at least when it begins.
FYI, your comment was part of my calculus to buy TSLA this morning.
This thread is a powerful indicator. I've muted several and lost some of that sour-signal, so I just look at the number of blocked messages. But then someone new comes along with your kind of phrasing on the Elon Channel. (And could be legit or paid FUD, who knows, not judging yet).
It boils down to these key FUD trends:
- Hate on Elon (& all Billionaires)
- Hate on Prices Drops - Demand!
- Hate on FSD, AI, Robots, and Job Elimination
- Hate on Manufacturing, Push for Efficiency, and Environment (lol)
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Nobody's trying to set it "precisely"
They're just pointing out that since Teslas systems plus a human have much lower accident rates on all types of roads (even across 2 different systems that primarily work on 2 different types of roads) you CAN conclude Teslas ADAS+human is safer than human alone.
I agree the specifics of HOW MUCH safer requires a lot more data.
But you've not shown anything to support your claim we can't conclude "safer by a non-zero amount" isn't accurate.
I was not asking about FSD. I'm asking about the long boring 2 hour drives on the freeway that all the lux automakers offer as well. The 5-10 minute to the grocery store isn't a painful, tiring drive.
That's where it doesn't look like that anywhere outside of this forum honestly. Again, this is about freeway driving and I did do my own homework.
Musskiah
DisGruntled
The AP data are consistently superior to only humans by 5-10x+ going back 6 or 7 years. The data may not "control" for road type variability, but the statistical difference is far too vast to ignore.
Better yet, we really should talk about the missing line. The data that show how many miles the car can go on FSD when NO Humans are involved.
And then the obvious questions after that:
Is it better or worse without Humans while on FSD?
Are we still causing accidents by intervening, or are we helping the data?
Tesla has a better understanding of course, but it's likely filtered data estimates and not pure. So I'm up for a pilot soon'ish, no drivers or passengers. How about cross-country, settle the debate once and for all. Per the data, it should be able to do this round trip, no accidents, and with fairly high confidence. Come-on Tesla FSD, ya ready for a road-trip soon?
Musskiah
DisGruntled
@DarkandStormy did you happen to read this? I wonder if this Jensen fella knows more than us about this stuff?
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