Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AnbaricBike]

I almost clicked agree. But 0%, even I won't go that far.
What if he slaps a monkey brain with a Neuralink on the hood just play that steer the car game?

Hey, here's an old corporate work joke... How do you make a monkey shake!

One scoop of monkey brains and two scoops of ice cream in a blender!
(IDK, it was funny in the 80's anyway).

 

[elasalle]

Tesla FSD V12.4.2 Expected To Go to Employees Today – What To Expect

FSD V12.4.2 is expected to roll out to Tesla employees today. When can customers expect it? Learn about V12.4.2 and what's in store for V12.5, including new fea

www.notateslaapp.com

FSD12.4.2 rolling out to employees. (headline says it all)

 

[SOULPEDL]

View attachment 1060342

Lol, it was precisely during those conversations following... "Did you try the monkey brains? It's a delicacy!"
This is (or was) quite real. And that's where I got the Neuralink steering idea from.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Lol, it was precisely during those conversations following... "Did you try the monkey brains? It's a delicacy!"
This is (or was) quite real. And that's where I got the Neuralink steering idea from.

Gives me flashbacks to the 1980's movie Faces of Death.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Walmart Canada adds Nikola's hydrogen fuel cell-powered electric semi-truck to fleet

Reuters reported in April Tesla Semi trucks were in short supply for customers, including Walmart and Pepsi, and the companies were turning to rival electric-truck makers for their fleets. In June 2022, Walmart said it was expanding transportation pilots with manufacturers of electric, hydrogen...

finance.yahoo.com

Watch out Tesla Semi

 

[Kenypowa]

Now I understand why some people hate Elon. It's not enough for him to destroy free speech, now his other company is hellbent in destroying the International Space Station?

/s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1806387311279538391

Can't say I am surprised

 

[Skryll]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1806387311279538391

Can't say I am surprised

Jalopnik always a guarantee for quality headline picking

 

[Musskiah]

Is it OK to add that ARK are a bunch of kids in their 20s with absolutely no experience in anything?

For heaven's sake. I'll just do your homework for Tasha Keeney. You need look no further than LinkedIn to understand how woefully misinformed your post is, almost as if on purpose Tasha Keeney, CFA - ARK Investment Management LLC | LinkedIn

 

[Musskiah]

Tesla coming to Malaysia First batch of Tesla Model 3 is on its way to Malaysia, deliveries to start soon (VIDEO)

 

[Skryll]

Tesla coming to Malaysia First batch of Tesla Model 3 is on its way to Malaysia, deliveries to start soon (VIDEO)

2023 News ?

 

[Musskiah]

2023 News ?

Oh my. Disregard....carry on...

 

[Musskiah]

The problem with Ark is not that they're overly optimistic on their valuations model, but that they're overly optimistic on their targets as well. If you look at their model for 2024 done in 2020, it's miles off.

In 2020, ARK’s price target for Tesla in 2024 was $1,500 bear case and $7,000 base case, presplit. $100-$466 split adjusted...which is almost very close to the range TSLA has traded from It's $400+ ATH set Nov 2021 (over 2 yesrs early) to it's more recent ~$140 low set Jan 2023. This was all without robotaxis, which I believe would have constituted the bull case. I would have to go back to reread the report to see for certain.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oh my. Disregard....carry on...

You could del it, lazy .

 

[Doggydogworld]

This was not a sensor failure, the Waymo detected the pole but had assigned a low damage score to the object and proceeded into it because the pole was within the driveable space and not separated by a hard curb or something along those lines.

Here’s the recall report:

https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2024/RCLRPT-24E049-1733.PDF

I'm sorry, but Waymo's explanation is useless. It doesn't matter whether the sensors failed or not. In fact, it'd be better if they had. Instead this was a fundamental failure of their entire system design, a violation of the First Commandment: Thou shalt not run into things.

AVs will make errors and crash. That's inevitable. They'll get tricked by confusing construction zones, misinterpret what humans are doing, get bad advice from remote monitors, etc. But this particular failure simply cannot happen.

I say all this as a long-time admirer of Waymo's technology. And I've done battle for a decade against all manner of silly claims from the Muskian horde ("billions of miles", "rides on rails", "only Tesla has neural nets" and more recently "end-to-end"). But PoleGate goes all the way to the core. Waymo must go back to square one and revisit every aspect of their system design. If they really think adding virtual curbs to this alley's map and tweaking a "damage score" is all they need, they're screwed.

 

[Doggydogworld]

In 2020, ARK’s price target for Tesla in 2024 was $1,500 bear case and $7,000 base case, presplit. $100-$466 split adjusted...which is almost very close to the range TSLA has traded from It's $400+ ATH set Nov 2021 (over 2 yesrs early) to it's more recent ~$140 low set Jan 2023. This was all without robotaxis, which I believe would have constituted the bull case. I would have to go back to reread the report to see for certain.

In 2021 ARK's 2025 price target was $1000 ($3k before the 2nd split), based on 5-10m car sales and $507b revenue.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hopefully we break $200 tomorrow! LFG!

 

[cab]

I honestly don’t even know what type of real analysis Ark does on their holdings and with their price targets in terms of looking at real-world limitations or realities. Reading through their stuff, it kinda sounds like they just put some data together and sandwich it between two pieces of bread before throwing it in the deep fryer — a Monte Cristo analysis I think they call it.

It’s like they don’t even pick real targets, they’ll have a blurb saying their base / bull / bear cases are just representative of the output from 2million possibilities coming out of the fryer. And they collect fees for this.

As an (unfortunate) ARKK shareholder, I endorse this message...

 

[dhanson865]

In 2020, ARK’s price target for Tesla in 2024 was $1,500 bear case and $7,000 base case, presplit. $100-$466 split adjusted...which is almost very close to the range TSLA has traded from It's $400+ ATH set Nov 2021 (over 2 yesrs early) to it's more recent ~$140 low set Jan 2023. This was all without robotaxis, which I believe would have constituted the bull case. I would have to go back to reread the report to see for certain.

I would say it's too early to call most of their price targets.


All of Arks "5 year" targets are more like 3.x to 4.x year targets if you look at date of publish vs date of target. Comparing over time we have

Bear Case targets
$49 Ark Tesla bear case 2023 (August 22, 2018) $736 price target (pre-split, would be $49 post splits) and
$100 Ark Tesla bear case 2024 (January 31, 2020) $1,500 (pre-split, would be $100 post splits)
TSLA Split 2020-08-31 5:1
$500 Ark Tesla bear case 2025 (March 19, 2021) $1,500 price target (pre-split, would be $500 post split)
$966 Ark Tesla bear case 2026 (April 14, 2022) $2,900 price target (pre-split, would be $966 post split)
TSLA Split 2022-08-25 3:1
$1,400 Ark Tesla bear case 2027 (posted April 20, 2023) $1,400 price target
Ark Tesla bear case 2028 : note this case is not used, they never made a 2028 target paper see date of publish for 2027 and 2029.
$2,000 Ark Tesla bear case 2029 (posted June 12, 2024) $2,000 price target

Which says to me that their bear targets have been more conservative than reality for 2023 and 2024 and remain to be seen for 2025 and after.

Expected Value targets
Ark Tesla 2023 (August 22, 2018) this year didn't have an Expected Value case. It only had bear and bull. If you gave those both equal weighting and adjusted for splits that would be $162.73 which seems like an accurate enough number.

all the Expected Value cases they actually did state are more bullish than reality for 2024 but remain to be seen how they turn out going forward.

Ark Tesla case 2024 (January 31, 2020) $7,000 (pre-split, would be $466 post splits)
TSLA Split 2020-08-31 5:1
Ark Tesla case 2025 (March 19, 2021) $3,000 price target (pre-split, would be $1,000 post split)
Ark Tesla case 2026 (April 14, 2022) $4600 price target (pre-split, would be $1533.33 post split)
TSLA Split 2022-08-25 3:1
Ark Tesla case 2027 (posted April 20, 2023) $2,000 price target
Ark Tesla Expected Value case 2029 (posted June 12, 2024) $2,600 price target

 

[AudubonB]

There never is clarity, and at worst there is misleading confusion, to present especially stock price data - historic or projected - without taking into account stock splits. There is no need at all to present "pre-split" numbers. Not at all.

 

[dhanson865]

There never is clarity, and at worst there is misleading confusion, to present especially stock price data - historic or projected - without taking into account stock splits. There is no need at all to present "pre-split" numbers. Not at all.

The reason for showing the pre split numbers is so someone can verify the accuracy of the post because the original numbers elsewhere on the web are in pre split numbers.

I'm just showing my work. I had to go find the presplit numbers and verify the split dates and do the math so I'm showing that work so everyone can

A. see that it's honest
B. check for math errors.
C. prevent others from inserting their own math errors.

If you would like to go back in time and ask Ark to adjust for future splits I'd be happy to post URLs that have the original report date with post split numbers.

As is, all I have are Arks original posts archived. I can post URLs but they will have pre split numbers plastered all over them.

I dare you to find a URL from an authoritative source (like say Arks website) that has post split numbers for Arks 2023, 2024, 2025, or 2026 models.