Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SPadival]

Were you always in ARK and not in TSLA? Because if you moved from TSLA to ARK, technically you are 1/10th the owner from what you were. Nothing wrong in doing that and maybe wiser for you to avoid the ups and down.

Was in TSLA. Got out and invested the profits in ARKK. See post for why..

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

 

[winfield100]

The idea that solar technology/pricing wouldn't improve markedly during the twenty years of phases 2 and 3 to the extent most property owners, rather than renewing for an additional ten years, would tell SCTY (now Tesla) to "get that antiquated mess off my roof" always seemed like an inevitable outcome --yet lease/PPA extensions between years 20 an 30 were a major component of the financial "no brainer" justification for buying out SCTY. If removals rather than renewals ensue, phase 4 will not be monthly cash flow receipts but a profit/cash drain.

As a vague/rough, fractal data point of >1 and <2, with a 20 year interval
I have 2 PV systems on 2 roofs, both face due south (well appx 185 - 190 degrees)
First system has 32 BP MSX-43's (43watt, now maybe 35 watt output after 20 yrs Amorphous Silicon tech) technology appx 1996-97 that cover 26sq meters for a whopping ~1.376kw (now 1.1 kW) array installed spring 1999
Second system has 37 Hanwha Q Cells Q.Peak Duo BLK-G5 315 watt panels covering 59.9sq meters for 11.655kW array installed Dec 2019

So appx 20 years later, covering ~twice the area, I get ~11x (eleven times) the power. the technology is getting better
(11.655 / 1.1 = ~10.5)
However, after 20 years, the _technology_ still produces power from sunlight

(as an aside, the low power array is being removed so the house can be re-roofed and then newer technology will be installed, the old PV recycled somehow and another "monster 150-200%" array (non shaded) (its illuminating how tall trees can grow in 20 years, plan ahead)

i think its complex. To me, it seemed SCTY designed to get a large number of houses, fast, w/Solar PV and get folks into the system, after all, PV in 20 years
1997 Megawatts installed on the _planet_ 235 megawatts consumed around 0.7 terawatt hours
2016 Megawatts installed on the _planet_ 301 GIGAwatts consumed around 333 terawatt hours
(Sources: IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme, IRENA, Solar Power Europe, EurObserver, and national sources.)
and (BP statistical review of world energy 2017)(2018 comes out around June)

(as an aside, folks might be interested at how the marine folks are using electricity)
April 2019 Electric & Hybrid Marine Technology International - UKi Publication Viewer
(april 2019 hybrid electric and hybrid marine publication)
preaching to tha choir, eh

 

[Pras]

Definitely worried about a text battle I had with my dad yesterday. He is one of the smartest people I know (and I'm a surgeon). He is a VERY successful long term investor in the market, focusing on multiple companies, and selling options. He reads constantly. He keeps telling me to stay away from TSLA. That the stock is going to drop more. That Tesla is getting killed by Jaguar and Audi in Europe, etc. If he is getting mislead by the Bear articles, it makes me worry what less intelligent investors think after reading the headlines.

Show him the hard numbers on sales figure for ipace and etron. Being a numbers guy he will directly appreciate it.

But I think it is a generation thing as well. Most experienced investor still think Tesla as automaker and miss the tech aspect of it. For example, nobody values autopilot and data, let alone FSD.

I think the battle to win traditional bankers and investors is already lost. Tesla will best be served if some tech focused investor recognize Tesla’s true value as a service and tech company. With the moves like FSD, insurance, Tesla will soon be recognized beyond #of cars.

 

[bdy0627]

I guess it means the largest "month 1" of any quarter. I don't think April delivery can be more than Dec 2018 or March 2019, not even close. If we really get that many, we would hear a lot of noise on the internet about delivery. Also as someone pointed out, InsideEV number is US only.

Yes, 1st month of the quarter. The largest previous 1st month was October 2018 at 20,325. I definitely wouldn't expect 30,000, and Elon made that statement with about 1 week left in the month, so it could still fall short of the record. Even 21 or 22k would still be a nice recovery after Q1. I do think they need more like 25k to help with getting to 90k for the entire quarter.

 

[green48]

2012 Tesla Model S vs. every other EV sold in America

Kevin Rooke on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm wondering if today's bloodbath would be an incentive for Elon to show some profit in Q2, which he could do by simply postponing some of the pipeline filling until Q3. I.e. don't take a 100% hit in Q2.

Good point. I wonder, has anyone done the math yet for S&P500 inclusion after the Q2 results are in? IE: sum of profit-loss from Q3-Q4-Q1 = ??

How much profit would Tesla actually need to declare in Q2 to be net profitable over the last 4 quarters? @Fact Checking may know who knows.

Cheers!

 

[Remus]

Good point. I wonder, has anyone done the math yet for S&P500 inclusion after the Q2 results are in? IE: sum of profit-loss from Q3-Q4-Q1 = ??

How much profit would Tesla actually need to declare in Q2 to be net profitable over the last 4 quarters? @Fact Checking may know who knows.

Cheers!

Why? The over-optimist-musk said there will be a loss and you don't believe him?

 

[Pras]

Why? The over-optimist-musk said there will be a loss and you don't believe him?

Agree. But just to answer the question, I think they need $252m in GAAP profit in Q2 (someone correct me if am wrong here).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, they said cash flow positive, just GAAP loss. May or may not be included, but they’ll also have to retrofit HW3 for all their existing FSD-equipped cars. Should be something like 500,000 of them, right? That would certainly offset the savings for a while.

Retrofit will only be free to those Oct 2018 or later cars which have paid for FSD. Sounds like the historical take rate for FSD is approx 10%. Every one else pays cash to upgrade to FSD Computer (its not required just to run std AP).<==MOD: This statement needs to be fact-checked. This Mod Flag will remain until this is verified or debunked. Caveat lector.

Mod redux: This appears strongly to be in error. See, e.g., Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

The FSD Computer costs Tesla about 80% of what they paid for the Nvidia its replacing, so this isn't a big expense. But while upgrading HW2+ cars, Tesla will automatically be able to book (at least part of) the FSD revenue previously held in trust. Achievement unlocked.

So this is a grand slam home run. And FSD gets better every month with the customers becoming Teslavanglists.

Cheers!

 

[T@oo]

Still in it since 2012 at $35

A couple hundred shares since ‘12 @ <30€ average.

 

[VValleyEV]

Elon Musk on Twitter

The man knows how to deliver a punch line. This made my day.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'll add that I'm all-in $TSLA, I'm just not that affluent

I’m yanking your chain.

Every bit of support via any means is important. It all adds up. If you and me and everyone else here (whether we’d break bread with them or prefer they stubbed their baby toe on the coffee table - repeatedly, like daily. Nay, hourly) didn’t matter, then the other side wouldn’t be putting up such a fight. I just saw them throw six kitchen sinks this past week alone.

Now get out there and stand on a street corner and peddle your wears so you can increase your all-in position to all-in performance plus.

 

[bdy0627]

The tax credit cliff tested


Pent up US demand ? Already lots of inventory SR+ available in Chicago.

Yes, it looks like there are lots of model 3 inventory available to buy now, mostly SR+ and also some LR AWD. Lots of S/X as well. It will be interesting to see how quickly they move. I'm tracking Chicago. I think this is really a new chapter for Tesla having so much inventory rather than build to order or even batch build for pent up demand. They are now providing lots of inventory in the U.S. without buyers already lined up. Let's see how this develops.

 

[Cattledog]

Still in it since 2012 at $35

Ditto, though from 2016-2019 sold 30% of shares in the $260-$350 range. Paid some capital gains tax.

 

[VValleyEV]

Retrofit will only be free to those Oct 2018 or later cars which have paid for FSD.
...
Every one else pays cash to upgrade to FSD Computer (its not required just to run std AP).

I am hoping your “Oct 2018” is a typo. I purchased my MS in Sept 2018, it was an inventory car made in late Feb 2018, and I paid for FSD as part of the purchase. I believe the car has AP2.5.

I have been assuming that my FSD purchase gets me a free upgrade to HW3. Any reason that it might not?

Thx

 

[Pras]

View attachment 401164

Looks like anything close to neutral will do it.

Not true. The number is GAAP profit, not operating profit.

 

[GeoX750]

45 M3 show up for me in the Greater Saint Louis and Chicago area. Lets see Chicago greater area population is 9.5 Million
Chicago metropolitan area - Wikipedia

St Louis population is almost 3 Million
Greater St. Louis - Wikipedia

There are 183 BMW M3 available within the Chicago area

New BMW 3 Series for Sale in Chicago, IL - CarGurus

In Saint Louis there 63 BMW M3 available in the Saint Louis area

New 2018 BMW 3 Series for Sale in Saint Louis, MO - CarGurus

I draw different conclusions about demand than you.

You haven't heard about Tesla's $700 million dollar quarterly loss and chose to base your argument on the number of BMW M3s in stock ?

You do realize the BMW M3 is a different car than a Tesla Model 3 ?

 

[Unpilot]

I guess... I won't be too popular here, but I'm just a lurking retail investor monitoring the bulls' sentiment. It amazes me how could anyone enter into a trade with NO (up/down) exit strategy. Especially when there is a relatively lot of money at stake. I'd rather donate that money to non-profits.

No Exit strategy? We ALL have one but the current decimal point is at LEAST 2 places to the right.

 

[Krugerrand]

Does anyone think Elon won't screw this up? His use of Twitter, which is probably similar to an addiction, will need to completely change if he is to follow the strict limits set by this agreement with the SEC. The ONLY way I see him not violating this is if he puts a plan in place where all Tesla related tweets are first sent to legal for review. That completely changes the casual way Elon tweets pretty much any Tesla info on Twitter. Is he really going to send all Tesla tweets first to legal for review? I find it hard to believe, but that would greatly reduce the chance of him violating this agreement. If he doesn't send all Tesla tweets to legal for review then he will almost certainly violate the agreement at some point. With Elon's hubris, I think the odds heavily favor him violating this agreement at some point.

First of all, he quite obviously made an effort to comply with the SEC agreement the first time around. IMO, he complied with it 100% and didn’t break any of the ‘rules’.

Secondly, even if one believes he broke the agreement they’d still need to admit he quite obviously made an effort to comply or they’d just be disingenuous lying dirtbags and thus we don’t care what they think.

Thirdly, this is not an all or nothing situation as you’re implying. There’s plenty of tweeting to be done in a casual way. Elon’s a smart guy, he’ll find a way. His way.

Fourth, just think of Twitter as a box and Elon like the chocolates. Or if you’re watching you waistline, think of Elon’s tweets like OTA updates; Christmas presents that sometimes unwrapped are disappointing socks and other times what you coveted most; the next iteration of not-a-leaf blower with duel tear gas canisters.

 

[Unpilot]

You haven't heard about Tesla's $700 million dollar quarterly loss and chose to base your argument on the number of BMW M3s in stock ?

You do realize the BMW M3 is a different car than a Tesla Model 3 ?

Just replying to your accusation about a demand problem...and if you want I can also see how many C class Mercedes are available...I bet its a lot more than 45.

If you here as a "care bear" I really really really appreciate your concern /S